Just wondering - airfare to Europe

[FlyerTalker]

Waterbug nailed it. Econ 101. I'll take the opportunity to expand on that.

 

Price changes occur on the basis of inventory in the various fare buckets, not because "fares" change. "Fare" is a specific term-of-art that refers to a specific set of fare rules and a selling price for that ticket. Those are relatively fixed and do not get changed frequently. Think of it as a large (20+) collection of price/rule points on a continuum. They range from highly discounted with many advance purchase/minimum stay/change strictures to full-fare unrestricted. And the price varies by a factor of 8 to 15 times the lowest.

 

What causes the volatility and changes in prices is the inventory assigned to each of those various "fares". Airlines have specialized staffs who use very sophisticated algorithms to maximize return on each and every flight. It's a process of analyzing supply and demand then adjusting inventory accordingly. So it's all a response to the market.

 

As for the best time to buy.....let's try a thought experiment. Let's say there WAS as "best time" to buy a ticket. If so, somehow that information would reach the public. People would "know" to wait until that time, then buy the ticket. But having that "best time" would now be contrary to the airline's interest in maximizing revenue, since everyone would wait for that time and would not buy a higher priced ticket before or after.

 

Every flight has a particular curve of the average price paid per ticket per day of sale. For some flights it looks one way. For others, a different one. There is no consistent pattern, nor any particular time when the minimum occurs.

 

Sometimes you can try to at least get a jump on the market. For cruises you know that thousands of people will be wanting to get to/get from a port on cruise day. This can be significant, even for major ports. You'll know that there is higher demand at spring break, around holidays and the like. At those times, demand will push fares up, so you want to buy sooner. Apply some logic.

 

Hope this helps out. An informed consumer is the best revenge for higher ticket pricing.

[dodger1964]

..

 

http://www.cwsi.net/delta.htm

 

thanks for posting that link

[yvonneh]

Thank you Meg and FlyerTalker!

I appreciate you both helping me to try to understand about this big not-so-fun airline game.

I really didn't have a clue there was so much to know about purchasing an airline ticket!

Now I will just keep checking and hope I run across a good "deal", and not be so slow pushing the purchase button. :rolleyes:

[yvonneh]

FlyerTalker… waterbug123…someone help me, please!

I have read many of your posts, and it's clear how you feel about having the cruise line being in control of your air travel, and your reasons do make perfect sense. But, this morning I found a flights on Choice Air (I look everywhere comparing flights) that are perfect flights/connections at a great price. They are Non Refundable tickets. The agent said they can be rebooked if needed for $300 a ticket, and used within a year. I still do not understand all the fare codes and all that you do, but if I buy trip insurance too, would I be crazy to purchase these? I want to make the right choice, and it is still all so confusing to me!

Should I just be patient and keep checking every day even though I am just about at the 3 month out mark? It seems the flights still have seats left on the flights I am looking at.

Any advice is appreciated. I cannot wait until I have this part of the booking of our vacation over with!

[yvonneh]

I decided to not proceed, and I have 4 months, not 3. I need to be patient.

[waterbug123]

FlyerTalker… waterbug123…someone help me, please....this morning I found a flights on Choice Air...that are perfect flights/connections at a great price. They are Non Refundable tickets....I still do not understand all the fare codes and all that you do, but if I buy trip insurance too, would I be crazy to purchase these?

 

Insurance is a step in the right direction, just make sure you understand how it works:

Let's say you buy a cheapo Choice Air ticket. Then let's say something happens that causes your flight to be cancelled, or delayed to the point that you would miss the ship. So you call Choice Air for help getting rebooked. Maybe they help you, or maybe they tell you to call the airline yourself. People have reported both responses, so you really don't know what is going to happen. Either way, let's say it turns out that your tickets are highly restrictive...you can't be rerouted, even though there's availability on a routing through another connecting city that would get you to the ship on time. You don't want to wait a day or 2 for a seat on a flight on your exact original routing because you don't want to miss even one minute of your cruise. So you decide to just throw away the Choice Air tickets (non-refundable, so you won't get your money back if you don't use them) and buy the tickets that are available on the alternate routing. It's last minute day of travel so they're pretty darn expensive and will cost, say, another $1000pp. This of course is on top of what you originally paid Choice Air. But you think "hey, this is why we bought insurance." But here's what you need to understand about the insurance: The company is not going to buy those $1000 tickets for you today. YOU will have to pay for them now, and then file a claim to get reimbursed by the insurance company, after submitting all the necessary receipts and documentation. Now, if you can afford to float that money, no problem....buy the tickets, take the new flight, and go have a blast on your cruise. But if you don't have a extra $1000pp to spare for several weeks while you go on the cruise, gather the necessary paperwork, file the claim and wait for reimbursement, i.e. YOU cannot afford to pay for those new tickets today, then you're out of luck and the insurance won't do you any good.

 

As to whether you would be crazy to purchase, only you can answer that. I don't know if you have enough cash to spare if the insurance angle comes into play, I don't what your risk tolerance is with the Choice Air tickets in the first place, and I don't know how important this cruise is to you.

 

Hope that helps! :)

[CruiserBruce]

Plus, insurance won't cover you if you have ill advised connection times, or very tight arrival times at the final airport, that a delay causes you to miss the cruise. For example, if you have a flight arriving at 12 noon, with a 4pm sailing and a 2pm all about, insurance may not cover that as too risky.

[yvonneh]

Insurance is a step in the right direction, just make sure you understand how it works:

Let's say you buy a cheapo Choice Air ticket. Then let's say something happens that causes your flight to be cancelled, or delayed to the point that you would miss the ship. So you call Choice Air for help getting rebooked. Maybe they help you, or maybe they tell you to call the airline yourself. People have reported both responses, so you really don't know what is going to happen. Either way, let's say it turns out that your tickets are highly restrictive...you can't be rerouted, even though there's availability on a routing through another connecting city that would get you to the ship on time. You don't want to wait a day or 2 for a seat on a flight on your exact original routing because you don't want to miss even one minute of your cruise. So you decide to just throw away the Choice Air tickets (non-refundable, so you won't get your money back if you don't use them) and buy the tickets that are available on the alternate routing. It's last minute day of travel so they're pretty darn expensive and will cost, say, another $1000pp. This of course is on top of what you originally paid Choice Air. But you think "hey, this is why we bought insurance." But here's what you need to understand about the insurance: The company is not going to buy those $1000 tickets for you today. YOU will have to pay for them now, and then file a claim to get reimbursed by the insurance company, after submitting all the necessary receipts and documentation. Now, if you can afford to float that money, no problem....buy the tickets, take the new flight, and go have a blast on your cruise. But if you don't have a extra $1000pp to spare for several weeks while you go on the cruise, gather the necessary paperwork, file the claim and wait for reimbursement, i.e. YOU cannot afford to pay for those new tickets today, then you're out of luck and the insurance won't do you any good.

 

As to whether you would be crazy to purchase, only you can answer that. I don't know if you have enough cash to spare if the insurance angle comes into play, I don't what your risk tolerance is with the Choice Air tickets in the first place, and I don't know how important this cruise is to you.

 

Hope that helps! :)

 

Thank you very much, and your response does help. :)

The cruise we are planning on going on has an overnight in Venice for the first night, not that I want to miss any of Venice! But, it does give a little bit of security that the ship won't sail without us. We could reroute ourselves financially, but that wouldn't be fun!

I want to wait to see if some flights come down, but I also don't want to miss out on this great flight, but I understand may come with some consequences. The price isn't that low either, but about $400 less than what ITA and Kayak show. We have 4 months. Don't you think if I watch closely, fares will drop?

[greatam]

Two things:

 

1. Chances of the air price going down are NOT particularly good. Once the cheaper fare buckets are sold out, UNLESS the airlines see a particular need to sell CHEAP tickets, they aren't dropping the price. And if Choice Air feels like they aren't going to sell their already purchased tickets, they will drop the price of the cruise or throw in a "free air" (from limited gateways-whatever tickets they have leftover) promotion and even the Choice Air tickets may be snapped up in no time flat.

 

2. Check out this thread. Someone posted that Emirates is now flying nonstop from JFK into Milan with EASY train connection to Venice. The inexpensive price of the flights was simply astounding.

 

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1963211&page=2

 

Everyone needs to get out of the US/AA/UA mind set.

 

You don't post where you are cruising to/from other than Venice or even when other than it is approx 4 months from now but I will almost bet that some of the lower cost European airlines will be very close to the Choice Air price with possibly easier connections through smaller airports.

[UKBayern]

Why is it when I search for airfare, the more times I search my specific dates / destination the price keeps going up and up? This morning I found a fantastic deal for my upcoming cruise, and I searched it many times, to find the best connections, and now the one I decided on is outrageous! :mad:

Does anyone know?

 

Apart from everything that has already mentioned, there are 2 other issues.

 

You keep looking over and over again at the same set of flights on the same day(s), using the same computer(s).

 

1) the airline notices there is suddenly a demand for these flights (the system can see how many people are searching), and puts up the price. We own a small hotel, and if 50 people suddenly call for info on rooms on a certain date, we know there is interest and we don't have to sell the rooms at bargain basement rate. The next person who calls does not get a deal, and why should we? There is a lot of interest, we will sell the room anyway. You could be hiking the price up all by yourself in theory.

 

2) this is really for the cynics amongst us, but try to do the same search via a computer you have not used before (at a friend's house, at the library, at work, etc) and see what price comes out (and book an amazing deal right there and then without hessitation). Computer experts say that advanced travel sites remember your IP-address, especially if you do a certain specific search over and over again. Cookies don't help either, of course. The travel agent computer system knows you have an interest in a particular flight or package deal, and that you might have a necessity to book this particular flight. If they put the price up by a little (say 10%-20%), most people will think " oh dear, the plane is filling up, the price has gone up, I need to book now before it is not possible anymore, I NEED to be on that flight". Presto! A little profit per ticket for the airline! I tried this theory out when searching for a holiday this summer, and found that the more I searched a particular deal on my own computer, it got less and less attractive. When I checked with another IP-address, suddenly the low rate was available again. Of course this does not always work this way, because there are many factors that contribute to certain rates.

Edited January 26, 2014 by UKBayern

[greatam]

Plus, insurance won't cover you if you have ill advised connection times, or very tight arrival times at the final airport, that a delay causes you to miss the cruise. For example, if you have a flight arriving at 12 noon, with a 4pm sailing and a 2pm all about, insurance may not cover that as too risky.

 

In addition, most of the insurance plans now have a MINIMUM trip interruption time of 6 hours.

 

Example: You are booked with Choice Air at 8AM to arrive Florida before noon. 8AM flight cancelled or delayed so long you may miss a connection. You find out your ticket is restricted to the originating airline and you must fly the original routing. You will miss the ship because the next flight with original airline and routing leaves at 2PM.

 

BUT there is a flight at 10AM on another airline that will get you to the ship in time. You can buy a one way walk up ticket for $800. You decide to spend the money.

 

BECAUSE your trip was NOT interrupted for more than 6 hours, the chances of having the insurance reimburse you for the walk up airline tickets are very, very slim.

Edited January 26, 2014 by greatam

[waterbug123]

We have 4 months. Don't you think if I watch closely, fares will drop?

 

No, I don't. Anything is possible, but econ 101 says that as supply goes down, price will go up. My guess is that there are a lot of people currently in your situation... cruise is booked, now waiting for the best possible price to buy their airfare to a very popular cruise port, and in the coming weeks/months they are going to finally decide to bite the bullet and buy their airlines tickets.... i.e. demand will stay steady (or maybe even increase) and with every ticket purchased, supply will decrease. That = prices going up, not down. You might get lucky and happen on a brief price drop but I wouldn't count on it. Furthermore, if you decide to keep waiting and you DO see such a drop and you like the price, BOOK IT. Do not stop, do not pass go, do not wait til you call your spouse to make sure they agree, just book it right then and there, because if you hesitate it will probably be gone by the time you go back to book. (Yes, even if that's only an hour later!)

[CruiserBruce]

No, I don't. Anything is possible, but econ 101 says that as supply goes down, price will go up. My guess is that there are a lot of people currently in your situation... cruise is booked, now waiting for the best possible price to buy their airfare to a very popular cruise port, and in the coming weeks/months they are going to finally decide to bite the bullet and buy their airlines tickets.... i.e. demand will stay steady (or maybe even increase) and with every ticket purchased, supply will decrease. That = prices going up, not down. You might get lucky and happen on a brief price drop but I wouldn't count on it. Furthermore, if you decide to keep waiting and you DO see such a drop and you like the price, BOOK IT. Do not stop, do not pass go, do not wait til you call your spouse to make sure they agree, just book it right then and there, because if you hesitate it will probably be gone by the time you go back to book. (Yes, even if that's only an hour later!)

 

Agree totally. Not only might prices go up, but you may not get a good routing, and/or you may not be able to sit together if you do get a good price.

[yvonneh]

I cannot thank all of you enough! I appreciate your knowledge, suggestions, and taking the time to help me. I have learned so much.

Now, if I can just make all this work in my favor, and quickly! :)

[bugeater2]

No, I don't. Anything is possible, but econ 101 says that as supply goes down, price will go up. My guess is that there are a lot of people currently in your situation... cruise is booked, now waiting for the best possible price to buy their airfare to a very popular cruise port, and in the coming weeks/months they are going to finally decide to bite the bullet and buy their airlines tickets.... i.e. demand will stay steady (or maybe even increase) and with every ticket purchased, supply will decrease. That = prices going up, not down. You might get lucky and happen on a brief price drop but I wouldn't count on it. Furthermore, if you decide to keep waiting and you DO see such a drop and you like the price, BOOK IT. Do not stop, do not pass go, do not wait til you call your spouse to make sure they agree, just book it right then and there, because if you hesitate it will probably be gone by the time you go back to book. (Yes, even if that's only an hour later!)

 

I will second this. I have been looking for transportation from Paris to Barcelona in June. My original plan was to take a sleeper train but Renfe discontinued those last month.

 

Now I have 2 options. Take a day train the day before our cruise or find a flight. Train tickets are not available to purchase but mock bookings put them in the 100 euro range.

 

I priced the flight and for the last month the lowest price I could find was 140 euro. Fast forward to last night and I am checking it on ITA and it is listed for 41 euro. I went direct to Vueling's website to book tickets.

 

I did not wait. I did not call my mother and ask what she thought. I did not close the browser. I did not wait until this morning. I pulled out my credit card and bought the tickets right away.

 

I will now use the $$ saved and put it towards the H10 at Catalunya Plaza for our pre-cruise hotel.

[greatam]

I cannot thank all of you enough! I appreciate your knowledge, suggestions, and taking the time to help me. I have learned so much.

Now, if I can just make all this work in my favor, and quickly! :)

 

If you could post your dates, departure/arrival airports and what you want to spend (including that GREAT Choice Air ticket you know nothing about), we might be able to point you in the right direction to get an airline ticket with all the perks if your main concern is price.

 

Some of us have tools that show even more than ITA and Kayak (which is now selling a lot of consolidator tickets). And look for posts from Gardyloo about BUYING AA miles which may save you a bundle if there is availability.

 

With the new Qatar addition to OneWorld and Emirates flying nonstop into Milan with REALLY, REALLY cheap prices on one of the better airlines in the world, you may be missing out on some really great opportunities with other airlines.

[yvonneh]

If you could post your dates, departure/arrival airports and what you want to spend (including that GREAT Choice Air ticket you know nothing about), we might be able to point you in the right direction to get an airline ticket with all the perks if your main concern is price.

 

Some of us have tools that show even more than ITA and Kayak (which is now selling a lot of consolidator tickets). And look for posts from Gardyloo about BUYING AA miles which may save you a bundle if there is availability.

 

With the new Qatar addition to OneWorld and Emirates flying nonstop into Milan with REALLY, REALLY cheap prices on one of the better airlines in the world, you may be missing out on some really great opportunities with other airlines.

 

That's great!!

Thank you!

The flights are great (Swiss and Lufthansa), the price, not great, but better that what's been coming up for me lately. They are $1313 as of 2 hours ago!

May 28th from Tampa (or near) to VCE (obviously) or near. Late afternoon flight.

June 12th from Florence (or near) to TPA afternoon flight preferred (1:20 is the latest I found)

I tried Emirates and found flights for about the same price as the CA flight after having to book flights to JFK (to MXP), and the ones on CA are into VCE and out of FLR. So, it wasn't with it.

Maybe you can find something better! I appreciate your help so much!

 

Oh, BTW I asked the CA agent if the tickets I am interested in would permit me to be booked on another airline if something happened, and he said yes, but only on the carriers they use. But, what else would he say? No? Highly doubtful even if it was the case.

Edited January 26, 2014 by yvonneh

[CruiserBruce]

$1313 is not outlandish for a flight that involves Venice. Doubt you are going to find much cheaper.

 

Best I can see is $1664. So if you can still get that $1313, jump on it.

[yvonneh]

$1313 is not outlandish for a flight that involves Venice. Doubt you are going to find much cheaper.

 

Best I can see is $1664. So if you can still get that $1313, jump on it.

 

Even if it's through Choice Air?

[CruiserBruce]

Even if it's through Choice Air?

 

Can't help you compare with Choice Air. Is the $1313 with Choice Air?

[yvonneh]

Can't help you compare with Choice Air. Is the $1313 with Choice Air?

 

 

Yes.. This is my hesitation.

[waterbug123]

May 28th from Tampa (or near) to VCE (obviously) or near. Late afternoon flight.

June 12th from Florence (or near) to TPA afternoon flight preferred (1:20 is the latest I found)

 

Couple of thoughts:

1. Is 5/28 the day you want to leave the US or the day you want to arrive in VCE? You will almost certainly be on a red eye flight, leaving one day and arriving the next, so keep that in mind as you build "wiggle room" into your itinerary. i.e. If your cruise departs 5/29 and you leave the US on 5/28, you are not actually arriving a day early, because you'll land in Europe on the day of the cruise. Maybe you've already taken that into consideration, so my apologies if that's the case.

 

2. Florence is not really a major international airport, so leaving from there may add another connection to your itinerary. Florence is about halfway between Rome and Venice, and both are major international airports and accessible from Florence by train. You might look at flight options out of VCE or FCO (Rome) just to see how the pricing compares to that of departing from Florence.

 

3. I'm seeing around $1630 on Delta (coming home from VCE or FCO; Florence bumped that price up over $2k) From my experience anything between $1300-1600 is about typical for the shoulder season to/from Europe (April/May and Sept/Oct). Personally, for a difference of $1600 with the airline vs. $1300 with CA, I'd go with the airline and be done with it. To me, the savings is not significant enough to worry about the "what if's" of CA. Of course, that's me, with my values and my finances and my risk tolerance....not yours. YMMV :)

[b_cruise]

Hey bug eater....ur lucky the Paris Barcelona overnight train was cancelled. Just did that this past summer, omg... Not a good time...lololol.. Good job on ur flight price though!!

[greatam]

I tried Emirates and found flights for about the same price as the CA flight after having to book flights to JFK (to MXP), and the ones on CA are into VCE and out of FLR. So, it wasn't with it.

Maybe you can find something better! I appreciate your help so much!

 

What do you mean it wasn't worth it if it was the about the same price. MUCH better airline and you KNOW what kind of ticket you are getting, not like Choice Air where you don't know and may have the proverbial pig in a poke.

 

And you may get to try an A380. I don't know what kind of plane they are flying nonstop to Milan.

 

In addition, Emirates is one of the TOP airlines in the world. Their first class suites set the bar very high for all the other Middle Eastern airlines. I know you won't be flying first class but the experience falls all the way down. And the Middle Eastern airlines DO take care of their passengers.

 

 

Oh, BTW I asked the CA agent if the tickets I am interested in would permit me to be booked on another airline if something happened, and he said yes, but only on the carriers they use. But, what else would he say? No? Highly doubtful even if it was the case.

 

So in other words, you got NO answer (which is typical because the agents don't have access to the FARE RULES either). I don't have time right now (we are just swamped with Super Bowl stuff) but later this afternoon when the phones quiet down, I will see what is out there for your dates.

 

But if you can do Emirates for the same price as Choice Air after adding in the Florida to JFK ticket, I wouldn't think twice about purchasing those tickets. As waterbug123 posted, your return is out of Florence. How are you going to get there? Have you considered the 3-4+ hours it will take you to get from Venice to Florence via train or bus and then to the airport with a couple of hours of airport time (I think your 1:20 flight out of Florence is a little unrealistic). Florence sure doesn't have the transport infrastructure that Milan, Venice and Rome do so you may be stuck doing a high price ship transfer. Have you checked?

[waterbug123]

As waterbug123 posted, your return is out of Florence. How are you going to get there? Have you considered the 3-4+ hours it will take you to get from Venice to Florence via train or bus and then to the airport with a couple of hours of airport time (I think your 1:20 flight out of Florence is a little unrealistic). Florence sure doesn't have the transport infrastructure that Milan, Venice and Rome do so you may be stuck doing a high price ship transfer. Have you checked?

 

I was assuming (I know... never assume, LOL) that she was maybe spending a day or two in Florence post cruise? OP: I know you told us your preferred travel dates, but if you give us your actual cruise dates, that would be even more helpful. :)