Tropical storm season a month early

[Shih-tzu]

So started checking the weather today for the 14 day forecast for Boston and Bermuda and lo and behold, one of the main stories is about an early tropical storm on the East Coast late this week.....could possibly be named.... :(

 

Hope it doesn't affect the Veendam's sailing next Saturday.

[Shih-tzu]

To add: One site I saw says those cruising the Bahamas and Bermuda should keep an eye on the weather :-(

[cruz chic]

I'm on the same cruise. I looked at weather.com and they said the possibly is low for this to become a tropical storm. I find weather networks try hard to be sensational. If it comes to be there is very little you can do about it. When I went to bermuda in 2012 we went thru a nor'easter. We were delayed but made it there.

[POA1]

What's the site URL? The National Hurricane Center has nothing on it. Not even in the text discussions, let alone the advisories.

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[Blue Mudshark]

The weather channel, and other entertainment media outlets, are hyping a possibility of a subtropical storm, as if it's a tropical storm. Although it's possible, it's not in the forecasts of non-entertainment meteorologists.

 

If you exaggerate the likelihood of a possible future system, and exaggerate a possible subtropical storm into a tropical storm, that's entertainment. The weather channel has their own reasons for naming storms, and they are not based on observations or any standard criteria. It's mostly about attracting viewers and getting more website hits from google. Weather forecasts from the entertainment media aren't particularly reliable.

 

I would suggest a more fact-based source such as wunderground - dot - com or weather - dot - gov. The National Hurricane Center hasn't forecast any tropical systems yet.

[Shih-tzu]

Here are a couple....

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/05/01/tropical-weather-season-could-get-early-start-off-carolina-coast-next-week/

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/first-tropical-system-of-2015-could-form-next-week-atlantic-east-coast/46471092

 

The third article is the one that discusses cruise interest (paragraph just abouve the map graphic).

[Shih-tzu]

Oh, I agree with you Blue Mudshark....but it was the 1st thing that came up this morning when I was trying to figure out what the weather will be in Bermuda between 11-14 May......

 

With the weather we have had here this winter (and it has been a doozie....) nothing at this point would surprise me. They had to bring the snow plows out this week in some parts here.......

 

Which leads me to why I want to get somewhere WARM :p

[Shih-tzu]

I'm on the same cruise. I looked at weather.com and they said the possibly is low for this to become a tropical storm. I find weather networks try hard to be sensational. If it comes to be there is very little you can do about it. When I went to bermuda in 2012 we went thru a nor'easter. We were delayed but made it there.

 

Hope to meet you :-)

[Blue Mudshark]

They're talking about a possible subtropical system.

[cruz chic]

Hope to meet you :-)

 

Likewise.

 

Thx to the posters that posted that understand these storms better than I do. I apprecite the information provided.

[CruiserBruce]

Have worked with a number of weather folk in my career. Most hate to try to accurately forecast more than 7 days out, some are uncomfortable after 5 days. 14 days is a long time in weather forecasting, and usually has a wide range of possible outcomes.

[Shih-tzu]

The storm they are talking about is in about the 5-7 day range..... I am hopeful that you are right and that everything will change :-)

[sppunk]

This storm I the NE will end up subtropical but has been modeled on the Euro and GFS for 405-5 straight runs. Late next weekend into that Monday might feature some storms and rougher than normal seas, but I wouldn't worry about any cancellations.

[Shih-tzu]

This storm I the NE will end up subtropical but has been modeled on the Euro and GFS for 405-5 straight runs. Late next weekend into that Monday might feature some storms and rougher than normal seas, but I wouldn't worry about any cancellations.

 

Oh - I hope so....thanks for the reassurance:)

[take us away]

What's the site URL? The National Hurricane Center has nothing on it. Not even in the text discussions, let alone the advisories.

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

 

Heard that this is a subtropical system so there is like a zero % chance of a hurricane. They have taken to naming all tropical and subtropical storms, just like naming the standard snow storms - what a joke.

[Jim Avery]

Weather Underground has a good Tropical Systems section for both Atlantic and Pacific. Have used them for years.

[cb at sea]

Just goes to prove that storms can happen anytime....even when it's not the "season"!!! Folks get all upset about the "season"!

[zerbot]

Heard that this is a subtropical system so there is like a zero % chance of a hurricane. They have taken to naming all tropical and subtropical storms, just like naming the standard snow storms - what a joke.

 

Uh, naming of tropical and subtropical storms that exceed specific criteria has been going on for well over 100 years, and has been official practice since 1953. This is not something they have just taken to doing recently. The snow storm thing is a recent gimmick from weather.com though, and has no official status.

[Blue Mudshark]

Uh, naming of tropical and subtropical storms that exceed specific criteria has been going on for well over 100 years, and has been official practice since 1953. This is not something they have just taken to doing recently. The snow storm thing is a recent gimmick from weather.com though, and has no official status.

 

Yeah, the naming of winter storms is purely for commercial promotion of one entertainment channel. And I don't know of subtropical storms being named.

 

But naming tropical systems in the North Atlantic (and elsewhere) has a long history, with clear observational criteria used to decide what storms to name. Sometimes tropical depressions in the North Atlantic are named before they reach tropical storm strength.

[zerbot]

Yeah, the naming of winter storms is purely for commercial promotion of one entertainment channel. And I don't know of subtropical storms being named.

 

Before 2002, subtropical storms weren't named from the "hurricane list" until they became fully tropical. Before 2002, whether and what kind of name they got depended on the agency putting them out. The Navy doesn't care how centralized the winds are, it just cares how strong they were, and so they would use names like Subtropical Storm Alpha (Bravo, Charlie, etc.) to call them out as significant to ships instead of the official NHC number. In 2002, the decision was made to officially name them according to the same criteria that tropical storms are named (sustained wind speeds). This was because of the above naming issues by different agencies, the distinction between subtropical and tropical storms is frequently a judgment call (leading to occasional differing classifications by different agencies, causing confusion), advancing science showed that they were both driven by the same climate mechanics, and in the North Atlantic, strong subtropical storms frequently become tropical storms (in 2002, and 2003, all named subtropical storms in the North Atlantic eventually became tropical storms, it wasn't until late 2004 that a named subtropical storm didn't become a tropical storm).

[the2ofus]

Here's the weather site I have used for years. It doesn't seem to get into the hype and hysterical reporting. It also has info available about Caribbean and North Atlantic weather systems. I'm sure it makes sense to check more than one site for balanced information, but here is where I start: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx

Edited May 3, 2015 by the2ofus

[sunnydaze]

I just talked to somebody who is on the Veendam right now (who never gets seasick) and they said it's been VERY rough. and many passengers have been sick. I always take "Meclizine tablets 25mg" with me, and never have to worry about motion, and I am one who gets car + boat sick very easily.

[Shih-tzu]

Here's the weather site I have used for years. It doesn't seem to get into the hype and hysterical reporting. It also has info available about Caribbean and North Atlantic weather systems. I'm sure it makes sense to check more than one site for balanced information, but here is where I start: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx

 

Thank you - I'll book-mark this to keep an eye on the "possible storm".

[Shih-tzu]

I just talked to somebody who is on the Veendam right now (who never gets seasick) and they said it's been VERY rough. and many passengers have been sick. I always take "Meclizine tablets 25mg" with me, and never have to worry about motion, and I am one who gets car + boat sick very easily.

 

Oh dear - and the possibility exists that next weekend could be worse. We can't get meclizine here, so I will have to try to find somewhere in Boston to get them before we board.

[cruz chic]

Oh dear - and the possibility exists that next weekend could be worse. We can't get meclizine here, so I will have to try to find somewhere in Boston to get them before we board.

 

The ship is not going the same route as it is right now so there is no way to tell if it's going to be rough or not.