Silversea Water Cooler: Welcome! Part Four

[mysty]

And Jeff, when I said that I wished people wouldn't read his tweets I was including the media in that request. I agree that even if the regular Joe or Jane Schmo does not follow his tweets in all likelihood he/she will hear about it through the media coverage. I think the media need to stop reporting on the tweets! He may call his tweets "Press Releases" but I'm not convinced that the American people would use that label. His tweets are not "massaged" by staff but they are "massaged" by him.

 

The organization "Britain First" is delighting in the perceived support from the man. They are getting undeserved news coverage because the man chose to re-tweet their propaganda. Do you really think this will encourage more Brits to join their cause? If anything, don't you think that Trump's perceived support of their cause will result in people running the other way?

[UKCruiseJeff]

Of course not. But I'm not a member of the society that is trying to drum up hatred towards us am I? Those are the people he has just assisted and helped.

 

And at the same time he has also managed to create enemies out of people who hate those that stir up racial hatred and unrest.

 

So in a careless ill-conceived stroke he has strengthened his enemies and lost some friends.

[mysty]

deleted

Edited November 29, 2017 by mysty

[spinnaker2]

Hello coolers.

Hard to write here. I did write about dinner with friends about a week ago. He had leukemia. We had a lovely dinner and lots of fun. The next day he was taken to the ER and died.

Just so sad. He was our children's pediatrician and a lovely man. A true healer in every sense of the word. A great loss.

His family are devastated.

So are we.

 

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Forums

[jpalbny]

Spins, so sorry to hear that. No words can really help but so glad that you got to see him and have a great time together. Please accept our sympathies for the loss of your friend.

[mysty]

Oh Spins, so sorry to hear about your friend's passing. Never an easy time and the lead up to the holidays is an even more difficult time to deal with grief. Thoughts are with you all!

[spinnaker2]

Thanks all.

We were friends for over forty years.

My heart breaks for his wife and children.

[MissSophia]

Sad news Spins.....I'm sure his family will find great comfort from your friendship and relish some wonderful memories.

[UKCruiseJeff]

Sad news Spins. Life is way too short.

[Camillus112]

Very sad to read this outcome. I remember your original posting...I think you were supposed to cruise together. You have been good friends and the memories will be cherished.

[Lois R]

Hi friends.......Spins, so sorry about your friend......my condolences go out to you.

 

As for Mr Trump? I continue to say this is not MY President:eek::mad::(.........this is only the first year.........pray for us all,

not just here in the states but around the world:eek:

[UKCruiseJeff]

Good evening all.

 

Could someone help me with a simple calculation that is puzzling me.

 

If you have a bag of sweets that only has two types in it of equal,quantities, say red and black, and you put your hand in without looking and take two, what are the odds of them being the same colour or of being two different colours. Is it simply 50/50?

[mysty]

It is 50/50. :) Enjoy the sweets! Myster's voice and mine.

[Camillus112]

The odds of being one red and one black are 50/50. The odds of both behind red or black are lower.

But what do I know now with the new math??

[UKCruiseJeff]

Someone has been rigging my bags. :(

[mysty]

The odds of being both red are 25%. The odds of being both black are 25%. The odds of being one of each are 50%. The odds of being the same colour are 50%.

[UKCruiseJeff]

It can't be 50/50.

 

If the first two you take out are black, the chances of the next two being black must be less than 50/50 and the chances of the next two being red must be greater than 50/50 because there is now two less blacks.

[mysty]

OK. You said taking out 2 candies. With non-replacement the odds change. And it depends on the number of candies you start with. If you start with 4 candies 2 red and 2 black and if you first pull out 2 black, the odds of pulling out 2 black on your second go are 0%.

[Camillus112]

Jeff, nowhere did you say the activities would be consecutive. I took them to be either/or. Of course your result is different.

[UKCruiseJeff]

OK. You said taking out 2 candies. With non-replacement the odds change. And it depends on the number of candies you start with. If you start with 4 candies 2 red and 2 black and if you first pull out 2 black, the odds of pulling out 2 black on your second go are 0%.

 

>>If you have a bag of sweets that only has two types in it of equal,quantities, say red and black<<

[UKCruiseJeff]

Jeff, nowhere did you say the activities would be consecutive. I took them to be either/or. Of course your result is different.

 

To steal someone's name I'm Mystified!

 

You take out two at a time. That is sumultaneous. You then consecutively take out two more simultaneously. :)

[mysty]

And the first time you reach in to take 2 candies the odds are as stated. After that it becomes a function of the number of candies left and the proportion of the colours of candies remaining in the bag. There is a mathematical formula for that.

 

http://www.probabilityformula.org/probability-without-replacement.html#

[UKCruiseJeff]

I really hate to break this news to Coolers.

 

Garrison Keillor has been fired over alleged improper behavior

Business Insider

Garrison Keillor, the former host of "A Prarie Home Companion" said he has been fired by Minnesota Public Radio over an allegation of improper behavior. Minnesota Public Radio confirmed Keillor had been fired, saying it received a single allegation of "inappropriate behavior." MINNEAPOLIS - Garrison Keillor, the former host of "A Prairie Home Companion," said Wednesday he has been fired by Minnesota Public Radio over allegations of improper behavior. Keillor told The Associated Press of his Read the full story

I'm prepared to believe the sweet formula but not that Garrison Keillor behaved improperly.

 

[mysty]

Sorry Jeff...I know you enjoyed his "A Prairie Home Companion".

[SonjaWinson]

Jeff:

 

It depends on the number of candies in the bag.

 

If there are two candies in the bag, the probability of getting one red and one black is 100%. The probability of getting two of the same color is 0.

 

If there is an infinite number of candies in the bag, the probability of getting two of the same color or getting one red candy and one black candy is 50% because after you take the first candy out of the bag, there are still (roughly) an equal number of candies of each color in the bag. The probability that the second candy will be just like the first or different from the first is therefore 50%.

 

Eat up and enjoy,

 

Karen