Pricing like a Pogo Stick

[mfs2k]

Pricing is all over the place in the last 65 days before sailing.

 

On Jan 18, 2019 I booked Concierge Class for Equinox March 23, 2019.  I paid $3,100 for 2 pax including 2 perks and port fees/tax.  I know this a steal on Celebrity.  

 

4 days later, there was a $250 price reduction for Concierge and Aqua. Since I already made my final payment, I was able to upgrade to Aqua for no additional money.

 

An hour ago, concierge class for that sailing dropped to $2,600 and Aqua jumped to $3,600. (was $3,300 yesterday)

 

Now, when I went to confirm this info for this post, the prices are $600 higher for Concierge.

 

Prices jump up and down a lot. And you never know where the bottom is, if you want to book at the last minute.

 

Here's a pogo stick

 

 

 

 

 

[Bo1953]

Just like airline fares, too.

 

bon voyage

[Cruise Junky]

1 hour ago, Bo1953 said:

Just like airline fares, too.

 

bon voyage

Not really, airfares are usually based on sales in each price bucket. Cruises are based on whims and raising prices dependent on what sale or perk they're including.

[CardRock]

I do not check daily, but I have yet to find anything less than what I booked on New Year's Eve for our June sailing on Equinox.  We did non refundable deposit and got 3 perks. 

[mfs2k]

1 minute ago, CardRock said:

I do not check daily, but I have yet to find anything less than what I booked on New Year's Eve for our June sailing on Equinox.  We did non refundable deposit and got 3 perks. 

 

I think it's all supply and demand driven.  Any cruise during peak weeks or periods will have a high demand, and cruise lines don't have to lower prices to fill the ship.  They know they can fill it with prices they've established.

Most of the price drops occur during slower times, when bookings are not picking up at the pace they've anticipated and they need to make adjustments.   

[Bo1953]

15 minutes ago, Cruise Junky said:

Not really, airfares are usually based on sales in each price bucket. Cruises are based on whims and raising prices dependent on what sale or perk they're including.

That is not really true, the airlines, like X has people and computers, which determine pricing and trigger points.

 

Airlines also have sales and certain perks involved in their pricing, so as far as I Am concerned no real difference except one is passage via air and the other via water.

 

Yes, there is human intervention in terms of changing when or the type of sale to take place either cruise line or air line.

 

bon voyage

[CardRock]

2 hours ago, mfs2k said:

 

I think it's all supply and demand driven.  Any cruise during peak weeks or periods will have a high demand, and cruise lines don't have to lower prices to fill the ship.  They know they can fill it with prices they've established.

Most of the price drops occur during slower times, when bookings are not picking up at the pace they've anticipated and they need to make adjustments.   

I have checked what is showing as still available.  Most verandas, OVs  and interiors are booked...but I saw a ton of Aqua cabins still open.  I know it is before final payment date, but could there be upgrades available for a bargain as we get closer to sailing? 

[mfs2k]

5 minutes ago, CardRock said:

I have checked what is showing as still available.  Most verandas, OVs  and interiors are booked...but I saw a ton of Aqua cabins still open.  I know it is before final payment date, but could there be upgrades available for a bargain as we get closer to sailing? 

 

There's no way of really knowing if most Verandas, OV's and interiors are really booked, or if Celebrity only shows certain cabins as available, 4 months out.   Keep looking and even after final payment date, you can still get an upgrade to a higher category, if the price drops lower than what you paid.  

[Cruise Junky]

9 hours ago, Bo1953 said:

That is not really true, the airlines, like X has people and computers, which determine pricing and trigger points.

 

Airlines also have sales and certain perks involved in their pricing, so as far as I Am concerned no real difference except one is passage via air and the other via water.

 

Yes, there is human intervention in terms of changing when or the type of sale to take place either cruise line or air line.

 

bon voyage

As a frequent international flyer I must have missed all of those book during the next two weeks and get free drinks but I’m charging you $500 more that the airlines run. 

[hiccups]

21 hours ago, CardRock said:

I do not check daily, but I have yet to find anything less than what I booked on New Year's Eve for our June sailing on Equinox.  We did non refundable deposit and got 3 perks. 

We booked a June Equinox cruise at the end of October with the Go Best package included.  I've checked every promo since then and they have been higher priced with less included for our cabin category (2B veranda).  Of course, for some I could then upgrade to Go Best and make the price even higher.  Now that it's after final payment I've been watching to see what happens.  This is our first sailing on X so I took a guess that the included Go Best package was a good deal, and so far, it has been.

That being said, I've posted elsewhere on the board that I regret booking the June 1st cruise instead of the June 8th.  Possibly no Captain Kate, and no Cake Boss    Plus the port change on the June 8th itinerary would have resulted in an insurance payout for us.  That's the last time I let my husband choose the cruise  😉  So, even a good price can still result in some disappointment.

[mfs2k]

15 minutes ago, hiccups said:

That's the last time I let my husband choose the cruise  😉 

 

HAHA!  I wish my wife would do some of the planning, but I've been the vacation planner for the past 23 years.  She just wants Veto power then wants to go and have fun and not worry about the details. . 

[hiccups]

1 hour ago, mfs2k said:

 

HAHA!  I wish my wife would do some of the planning, but I've been the vacation planner for the past 23 years.  She just wants Veto power then wants to go and have fun and not worry about the details. . 

Oh, I think my husband would plan the trips if I asked.  But control freak me would be going behind his back to check everything, so I just cut him out as the middle man    I'm still wondering why I let him choose the itinerary when I really preferred the other one... I guess I wanted to give him SOME say in the matter!  LOL.  Of course I let him know we missed out on the insurance payout, Captain Kate and the Cake Boss, though 😉

[poffles]

Cruising prices in general seem to bounce around, they all seem to love the number game.  Could be compared to airfare (and many other things) but it doesn't change what the OP is saying.  The why and how of pricing is often a mystery and one definitely has to gamble when to lock in and be happy with the price or upgrade as OP has done.  I'm sure sometimes it's relative to vacancy and sometimes total mystery based on what they (think) can get away with.  Still frustrating but sadly it's the way things go for anything with a price tag.

 

Not quiet the same as this but I 'love' the RCL pricing ... sometimes it's BOGO and sometimes it's 30% off all.  Interestingly in some sailings I was watching, with the different offerings I would notice the base price would change accordingly such that the final price tag was the same in both situations.  LOL  At least in this case the bottom line was not changing so much.

[poffles]

13 hours ago, Cruise Junky said:

As a frequent international flyer I must have missed all of those book during the next two weeks and get free drinks but I’m charging you $500 more that the airlines run. 

So True! 

 

And a true indicator of the 'free not so free' perks with Celebrity is with many sailings, the price of an inside is so much lower than OV ... and often the OV and Veranda are close in price.  Why would an OV be so much more ... why it would be due to the 'free' perks that only start with the OV.  Hmmmm   Then often when it gets closer to cruise time the price will drop significantly but that is when the 'free' perk is gone too.

 

Knowledge is our friend 🙂

 

 

[Hlitner]

We love playing the pricing game :).  For some of our most wanted cruises we do book far in advance (on any cruise line) and monitor price/promotional changes.  But we also have a ton of fun looking for last minute bargains which happen on just about every cruise line (including X).  Sometimes we will book with only a few days notice and it could be a cruise in the Caribbean, Europe, Asia, etc.  When online playing the pricing game I usually have a 2nd computer checking on air deals.  Sometimes it all comes nicely together and we get deals almost  beyond belief.  We are talking long cruises in high category balcony cabins for under $50 per passenger day along with a huge discount in last minute Business Class air.  

 

When folks ask how to get fantastic deals we sometimes tell them you must keep an open mind :).  There are folks here who are locked into a single cruise line, ship., cruise, cabin category, etc.  We also talk to folks who will only book direct with their favorite cruise line (a terrible mistake on several levels) and completely dismiss anyone who tells them there are much better ways to book,  All that stuff works against you when shopping around for a truly great deal.   Why on earth would I pay over $1000 per passenger day for a small suite on the Edge when I can get a larger suite on Seabourn for less than $500 a day?  Or why would we book a Europe to USA repo cruise on Celebrity or RCI for about $140 per passenger day (and have to pay a lot for airfare) when we can get a similar HAL repo cruise for $60 per passenger day (in a nice balcony cabin) along with one-way Business Class air at 1/3 the normal cost?

 

When it comes to X, we think that the their pricing strategy has become nutz.  In our case it simply drove us to other cruise lines (many of which have a better product then X).  And because Celebrity drove us away from a few bookings because of pricing and cut-backs, we discovered other options/lines which far exceeded our expectations.  So in a sense, X not only lost a few current bookings from a pretty good customer (we have been Elite Plus for many years), but they have likely lost many future bookings because we other lines/ships we enjoy more then the current X.  But keeping an open mind means we will come back to X when the stars align :).  Perhaps it will take a new CEO (with a different philosophy) or X will discover that they have driven too many away to fill their ships.  Come to think of it, we wonder why we are seeing all these last minute X promotions?

 

Hank

 

[CardRock]

1 hour ago, hiccups said:

We booked a June Equinox cruise at the end of October with the Go Best package included.  I've checked every promo since then and they have been higher priced with less included for our cabin category (2B veranda).  Of course, for some I could then upgrade to Go Best and make the price even higher.  Now that it's after final payment I've been watching to see what happens.  This is our first sailing on X so I took a guess that the included Go Best package was a good deal, and so far, it has been.

That being said, I've posted elsewhere on the board that I regret booking the June 1st cruise instead of the June 8th.  Possibly no Captain Kate, and no Cake Boss    Plus the port change on the June 8th itinerary would have resulted in an insurance payout for us.  That's the last time I let my husband choose the cruise  😉  So, even a good price can still result in some disappointment.

We are on the Equinox June 15th.  Our anniversary is the 9th, but we wanted the Western Caribbean itinerary, and since my wife is a teacher, she is never sure of when she can take off because of possible snow days added on to the end of the year, so the 1st was too risky.  Sad to see the Cake Boss on the 8th, but glad that we should have Captain Kate!  We are in a 2B veranda too (7287).  Anxious to see what the Revolution will look like!

 

Most of our vacations have been with my wife's family (around 25 in total)sharing a couple of nice high rise 4 bedroom condos in Pensacola Beach FL.  It was great for our kids to grow up vacationing with their cousins in what truly became our happy place.  Now with my wife's parents unable to travel, and most of the kids grown, we have not been able to do that in a couple of years.  We decided to do something special for our 30th anniversary. 

 

With the Pensacola trips, I let others do most of the planning.  With it being basically home-away-from-home, there really was not much planning.  When we do Disney or now with the cruise I handle most of the planning since I am better at researching the interwebs.  With this cruise she said she wanted a veranda, a beach day and she wanted to do the glass blowing.  She trusts my judgement on the details....

[hiccups]

My husband's birthday is June 5th, so when he chose the June 1st itinerary I thought okay, I'll go along with his choice because then he can be on vacation on this birthday.  The irony is he doesn't like any attention surrounding his birthday (or our anniversary) and he will be very upset if I dare mention to anyone on board.

Enjoy your anniversary cruise!  We are taking an anniversary cruise in the Mediterranean on Azamara in October (only 10 years for us, though).  We will leave on our anniversary, so I suppose our celebration will be seeing if we can get sparkling wine on the plane--our first flight with lay-flat seats!  I'm looking forward to that more than the cruise, I think 

As an aside, we did a long weekend in Louisville a few years ago.  Ghost tour, food tour, distilleries, and a stay at the Brown Hotel--it was a fun trip!

[mfs2k]

24 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

When folks ask how to get fantastic deals we sometimes tell them you must keep an open mind :).  There are folks here who are locked into a single cruise line, ship., cruise, cabin category, etc.  We also talk to folks who will only book direct with their favorite cruise line (a terrible mistake on several levels) and completely dismiss anyone who tells them there are much better ways to book,  All that stuff works against you when shopping around for a truly great deal

 

I agree 100% with this. 

 

When you are locked into a single cruise line; ship; itinerary; cabin category, or booking channel you will often miss out on some great opportunities and vacations.  The frequent traveler benefits are nice when you stick with one brand, but the benefits don't always offset the costs.

[mfs2k]

5 minutes ago, hiccups said:

My husband's birthday is June 5th, so when he chose the June 1st itinerary I thought okay, I'll go along with his choice because then he can be on vacation on this birthday.  The irony is he doesn't like any attention surrounding his birthday (or our anniversary) and he will be very upset if I dare mention to anyone on board.

Enjoy your anniversary cruise!  We are taking an anniversary cruise in the Mediterranean on Azamara in October (only 10 years for us, though).  We will leave on our anniversary, so I suppose our celebration will be seeing if we can get sparkling wine on the plane--our first flight with lay-flat seats!  I'm looking forward to that more than the cruise, I think 

As an aside, we did a long weekend in Louisville a few years ago.  Ghost tour, food tour, distilleries, and a stay at the Brown Hotel--it was a fun trip!

 

Thank you!   Enjoy your husband's birthday cruise and your anniversary cruise too! 

 

We just wanted a cruise close to the date of our anniversary to celebrate our 20.  We would have sailed a week or 2 on either side, and this trip seemed to be priced right for us.  As it turned out, this cruise starts on our anniversary date so yay.  

[CardRock]

8 minutes ago, hiccups said:

My husband's birthday is June 5th, so when he chose the June 1st itinerary I thought okay, I'll go along with his choice because then he can be on vacation on this birthday.  The irony is he doesn't like any attention surrounding his birthday (or our anniversary) and he will be very upset if I dare mention to anyone on board.

Enjoy your anniversary cruise!  We are taking an anniversary cruise in the Mediterranean on Azamara in October (only 10 years for us, though).  We will leave on our anniversary, so I suppose our celebration will be seeing if we can get sparkling wine on the plane--our first flight with lay-flat seats!  I'm looking forward to that more than the cruise, I think 

As an aside, we did a long weekend in Louisville a few years ago.  Ghost tour, food tour, distilleries, and a stay at the Brown Hotel--it was a fun trip!

The Brown is great and the Bourbon Trail has really changed tourism in the area..

 

Hope your DH has a wonderful Birthday!

 

I hear ya on the plane seat...I have only been upgraded the 1st Class once...much better than the SWA cattle call...

 

We usually are are on vacation on Father's Day...and we will be again this year...although the cruise is birthdays, anniversary, mothers day & fathers day gift to each other.  

[jaapie]

1 hour ago, hiccups said:

My husband's birthday is June 5th, so when he chose the June 1st itinerary I thought okay, I'll go along with his choice because then he can be on vacation on this birthday.  The irony is he doesn't like any attention surrounding his birthday (or our anniversary) and he will be very upset if I dare mention to anyone on board.
 

 

 

My husband didn't want any fuss for his 70th birthday last year so we booked a cruise for just the two of us. On the night of his birthday a bartender noticed his DOB when he ran my husband's ship card and the bartender disappeared for a few minutes and came back with a slice of cheesecake and wished my husband a happy birthday!

[Tedw]

I'm a bargain hunter by nature.  Being flexible is good advice.  I will say that my best deals never are a part of any email or advertising campaign.  I just search various sites that list all the cruises and watch the trends for the pre-screened itineraries we have identified as meeting our needs.  Then when I see an indication that they price may have dropped significantly we pounce on it.

[Shadow9612]

10 hours ago, Hlitner said:

We are talking long cruises in high category balcony cabins for under $50 per passenger day along with a huge discount in last minute Business Class air.

Wow, that sounds great! 

I look forward to the day when my schedule allows me to go last minute.

[Hlitner]

8 minutes ago, Shadow9612 said:

Wow, that sounds great! 

I look forward to the day when my schedule allows me to go last minute.

The folks who run cruise lines are well aware of the limitations most cruisers have with their schedule.  That is why they usually reserve the best deals for the last minute bookers.   For nearly thirty years of extensive cruising, we had to work with the usual limitations caused by work and family demands.  Once we were retired, our dog had passed (she was over 17), our parents were gone, and our DD was successful...we were suddenly free!  We fell into that category of travelers who could often just go, at the last minute, without many issues.   And the cruise lines love folks like us who can fill the unsold berths.  But even when we worked we sometimes took advantage of last minute deals.  DW and I would schedule our vacation time, but not book a cruise or trip.  We knew that we could always find something, be it a last minute cruise, or a last minute airline booking to nearly anywhere in the world or perhaps a week or two at a decent All-Inclusive. .  And if all else failed we could simply pack-up the car and drive off to anywhere!  Those days were lots of fun.  Sometimes it was a last minute cruise, but other times we would just fly off to Europe, rent a car, and go!    It is a big wonderful world for those with a spirit of adventure!  A very good friend, who would plan her family trips with a spreadsheet laying out every minute of every day....could never believe that we would go off to Paris without any plans :).   We currently have two interesting cruises booked for this year including a 14 day in Alaska and 25 days in the Med (plus extra land time in Italy).  There are no excursions booked, no private tours, and we do not even have a place booked in Italy for our visit.  We will likely take the two cruises without booking a single excursion and simply do our own thing!  As to Italy, we are still debating where we want to drive.  We have our air (which can be changed) and that is it!  I will book a rental car from FCO...and at some point we will decide where we want to drive.  Eventually we will drop our rental car at Civitavecchia for our cruise...but otherwise..who knows.  And then there are the cruises we have yet to book (or consider) that will probably happen this year.   What is fascinating are the others we meet on our trip who also follow a similar course.  Sometimes those other folks will give us a new idea :).  Hence my comment about an open mind.  

 

Hank

[CathyCruises]

15 hours ago, hiccups said:

Oh, I think my husband would plan the trips if I asked.  But control freak me would be going behind his back to check everything, so I just cut him out as the middle man    I'm still wondering why I let him choose the itinerary when I really preferred the other one... I guess I wanted to give him SOME say in the matter!  LOL.  Of course I let him know we missed out on the insurance payout, Captain Kate and the Cake Boss, though 😉

This is funny. Yesterday a friend asked DH when our trip was. I just laughed. No way would know the dates, perhaps might know departure MONTH!