NCLH Restructuring, Cost Cutting

[RJB]

17 hours ago, njhorseman said:

 

What I've seen states that the smallpox vaccine is about 95% effective and because virtually everyone has been vaccinated there's "herd immunity", which means it's next to impossible for the infection to spread if someone does catch it.

 

In the US only about 50% of the population gets the flu vaccine and the vaccine is only about 50% effective because of the educated guessing game that has to take place each year about what strains of flu are going to be predominant during the next flu season in order to have enough time to manufacture the right vaccine...and that educated guessing game doesn't always come up with the right answer. 

 

So there are a lot of cases of the flu every year, but for the overwhelming percentage of people it's a relatively mild illness with  a low mortality rate...the most vulnerable to serious illness being largely the same group most vulnerable to death fro complications of COVID-19...the elderly and those with underlying serious medical conditions. 

So we don't shut down the whole country when we have a serious flu outbreak.  Does that mean when we get a COVID 19 vaccine to cover 50% of the country we will be O.K. ?

[Shawnino]

19 hours ago, Paulchili said:

I'll take the flu shot. I've been getting the flu shot for many, many years now and have not gotten the flu since getting the vaccine. If I were to get it because of a different strain that year, I am sure it would be a much milder case than without the flu shot.

I'll take those odds.

 

Thanks for responding.

Next question: will there be enough people of your mind to sustain the current cruise industry, if a flu-shot-type vaccine is where we end up? 

 

(Just for the record, in case it isn't clear, I'm not trying to argue with you. I respect your opinion. And I have no skin in this game myself: vaccines are unfortunately off-limits to me.) 

[njhorseman]

40 minutes ago, RJB said:

So we don't shut down the whole country when we have a serious flu outbreak.  Does that mean when we get a COVID 19 vaccine to cover 50% of the country we will be O.K. ?

No we wouldn't be OK because the mortality rate  from COVID-19 is staggering when compared to seasonal influenza. 

 

A serious flu outbreak doesn't cause anywhere near the rate of hospitalizations and mortality  as COVID-19. A flu season might produce 25 to 50 million documented cases in the US resulting in 20,000 or so deaths. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3278149/ .

 

As I write this in the US there have been about 1.1 million documented COVID-19 cases resulting in 66,000 deaths https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html ...so if you do the math despite far fewer... 1 million versus 25 million ... people being infected with COVID-19 there has already been more than three times the number of deaths as you would expect in a flu season. 

 

 

[pinotlover]

It’s a pick your poison dilemma. My b-I-l reports from his gated over 55 ( mostly over 70) community that many of his neighbors haven’t been out of their houses since mid March. Food, drugs, etc, are delivered to the door and sanitized in the porch before being brought inside. A virtual prisoner in their own homes until an effective vaccine is distributed. Twelve months, eighteen months, they’re hunkered down not even taking walks anymore.

 

Other portions of society are restarting life again. Take their chances, earn a living, get out and about. My grandkids go to private school in Nashville. That school has canceled summer programs but is reopening for classes in August. Period. If the school doesn’t reopen, it gets no tuition, parents go elsewhere as available, and the school is basically shuttered. Many businesses are the same.

 

We have portions of the population that are in a Group 1 and 2. Each doing what they believe is best and necessary for each. They won’t be meeting in the middle, or meeting at all for that matter!

[Paulchili]

1 hour ago, Shawnino said:

Thanks for responding.

Next question: will there be enough people of your mind to sustain the current cruise industry, if a flu-shot-type vaccine is where we end up? 

I think so. I believe that is exactly what people are waiting for - an effective vaccine.

[njhorseman]

5 hours ago, RJB said:

So we don't shut down the whole country when we have a serious flu outbreak.  Does that mean when we get a COVID 19 vaccine to cover 50% of the country we will be O.K. ?

In addition to what I said earlier, the federal government also doesn't think 50% coverage is sufficient and wants enough vaccine by January to vaccinate all Americans:

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-05-01/white-house-says-coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-january

 

President Donald Trump said it is not too optimistic to try to produce roughly 300 million doses of vaccine in eight months, enough for all Americans, the Washington Post reported.

 

[Cruzin Terri]

1 hour ago, njhorseman said:

In addition to what I said earlier, the federal government also doesn't think 50% coverage is sufficient and wants enough vaccine by January to vaccinate all Americans:

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-05-01/white-house-says-coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-january

 

President Donald Trump said it is not too optimistic to try to produce roughly 300 million doses of vaccine in eight months, enough for all Americans, the Washington Post reported.

 

And he also said that anyone who wants a test can have a test.  I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

[RJB]

2 hours ago, njhorseman said:

In addition to what I said earlier, the federal government also doesn't think 50% coverage is sufficient and wants enough vaccine by January to vaccinate all Americans:

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-05-01/white-house-says-coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-january

 

President Donald Trump said it is not too optimistic to try to produce roughly 300 million doses of vaccine in eight months, enough for all Americans, the Washington Post reported.

 

I am sure he is right.   At this time it does not matter as we don't have a vaccine and do not know when we will get one.  

[pinotlover]

Doesn’t matter. Eight months is 2021. The Governors will probably have to call out their National Guards to enforce shutdowns, if they attempt to shut down their respective States from mid November through December . Not sure most States even have enough Guard to enforce such a shutdown.
 

Those that insist upon hunkering indefinitely will do so. Many more will take their chances and go for herd immunity. Take their chances and let the rest, do as they are currently doing, stay locked down in their quarters.
 

If 30-50% do achieve immunity from past exposure, do you believe half the nation is going to obey isolation orders at their own economic peril? We are quickly approaching the end of orderable en mass isolation .

 

Here’s a bet. Notwithstanding reasonable threats, schools will start in August/September and most will remain open for the period.

[RJB]

34 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Doesn’t matter. Eight months is 2021. The Governors will probably have to call out their National Guards to enforce shutdowns, if they attempt to shut down their respective States from mid November through December . Not sure most States even have enough Guard to enforce such a shutdown.
 

Those that insist upon hunkering indefinitely will do so. Many more will take their chances and go for herd immunity. Take their chances and let the rest, do as they are currently doing, stay locked down in their quarters.
 

If 30-50% do achieve immunity from past exposure, do you believe half the nation is going to obey isolation orders at their own economic peril? We are quickly approaching the end of orderable en mass isolation .

 

Here’s a bet. Notwithstanding reasonable threats, schools will start in August/September and most will remain open for the period.

Agree with you 100%    The majority of us will not be willing to remain in lock down forever and will do whatever it takes to end this policy within the next few months.  Not enough national guard to force us to.  Stay safe.

[Hawaiidan]

25 minutes ago, Aloha 1 said:

November is election time.You seriously think any Governor will risk reelection by keeping the populus on lock down? Of course not. It's all Kabuki Theatre. We are smart enough to know that if we are in the vulnerable age group, we can wear masks and gloves. If we don't reopen soon there will be nothing left to reopen. The quickest way to beating this thing is herd immunity...and you can't get herd immunity cowering in your home.

So true......people are on the verge of rioting here......no joke.    Just a few hold out states like California...