NCLH Restructuring, Cost Cutting

[commodore2010]

4 minutes ago, LHT28 said:

so back to my question

Who would take them over ?

 

Too early to tell what, if any, consolidation would occur in this industry.  Each major cruise line has 8-12 months of cash burn to sustain themselves as the picture of recovery become clearer.  

[Shawnino]

7 minutes ago, LHT28 said:

so back to my question

Who would take them over ?

 

Private Equity.

At the right price, there's always a buyer of last resort.

[clo]

1 hour ago, ORV said:

Is there more than more person that posts from your account? 

Well, there's "Bruno." As when my husband says "you really don't want to mess with Bruno." LOL.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, commodore2010 said:

No cruise line is in a strong financial position right now. Its all relative.  Yes,  all the cruise lines are looking at all types of money. They would be doing a disservice to their stockholders if they did not. 

 

My point was, and I still stand by it, is that an S&P 500 company is much more likely to survive than a private company. 

But your point is based on pure speculation because you have no access to the financials of a privately held company such as Viking.

 

You have no data one way or the other. I can just as easily make an unsubstantiated and equally unprovable claim that the opposite is true, but  I won't because without access to their financials I'd just be blowing smoke.

 

[tocruiseguy]

20 hours ago, pinotlover said:

I truly believe the Bloomberg article was generically correct. “ Those companies, outside of care, catering to the Elderly will be the last to recover. If they survive to recover!” 
 

Disney, Carnival, etc. have an entirely different targeted clientele than some other lines. If you’re a cruise line, waiting on customers whose median age exceeds 75 to resume sailing, your in more trouble than a line with a median age of 40. Fairly simple, actually.

 

2 hours ago, commodore2010 said:

 

Too early to tell what, if any, consolidation would occur in this industry.  Each major cruise line has 8-12 months of cash burn to sustain themselves as the picture of recovery become clearer.  

 

Not sure about consolidation, for some time period there will be excess capacity in the industry so not sure a bigger cruise line is what would make sense.  I would guess older ships would get decommissioned rather than refurbished.  With liquidity an issue, you will also see longer periods before a ship is refurbished.  This will all be dependant on whether or not we completely stamp out the virus.  

[pinotlover]

7 minutes ago, tocruiseguy said:

 

 

This will all be dependant on whether or not we completely stamp out the virus.  

We will never” completely “ stamp out the virus any more than we’ve stamped out the flu, measles, or chicken pox. As with the flu, even the vaccine may not be 100% effective. This will be dependent upon travelers, based upon their own risk reward analysis, decide to return to cruising. Some individuals, with high vulnerabilities, may never return to cruising , or even air travel, again. Others are busting as the seams to get back to traveling ASAP.

 

The issue will become, for the cruise lines, how do they lure their targeted demographics back to their ships and how much does it cost to do so.

 

On this particular board, we are fairly well split into two camps : Cruisers and Travelers. The cruisers overall don’t care where they’re going, they just want to be floating around on a ship , enjoying the ship. Travelers cruise primarily to get to specific locations with more ease than land travel options. I personally foresee Cruisers being diverted longer term from cruise ships more so than travelers. Time will tell. 

[tocruiseguy]

26 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

We will never” completely “ stamp out the virus any more than we’ve stamped out the flu, measles, or chicken pox. As with the flu, even the vaccine may not be 100% effective. This will be dependent upon travelers, based upon their own risk reward analysis, decide to return to cruising. Some individuals, with high vulnerabilities, may never return to cruising , or even air travel, again. Others are busting as the seams to get back to traveling ASAP.

 

The issue will become, for the cruise lines, how do they lure their targeted demographics back to their ships and how much does it cost to do so.

 

On this particular board, we are fairly well split into two camps : Cruisers and Travelers. The cruisers overall don’t care where they’re going, they just want to be floating around on a ship , enjoying the ship. Travelers cruise primarily to get to specific locations with more ease than land travel options. I personally foresee Cruisers being diverted longer term from cruise ships more so than travelers. Time will tell. 

Good points.  Guess we are in the traveler camp, we did a land tour of Vietnam last fall (feels like a decade ago now...) which was favourite vacation to date.  We really like cruising too, but find that now that we cruise without our kids (not on school holidays), the cruises we go on lately cater to a much older demographic, especially the entertainment.  Although we will endure it for the right itinerary.  

 

Bottom line, there is much uncertainty in the tourism industry right now so I don't think anyone can predict how quickly we will get our of this.  

[PaulMCO]

4 hours ago, tocruiseguy said:

 

 

Not sure about consolidation, for some time period there will be excess capacity in the industry so not sure a bigger cruise line is what would make sense.  I would guess older ships would get decommissioned rather than refurbished.  With liquidity an issue, you will also see longer periods before a ship is refurbished.  This will all be dependant on whether or not we completely stamp out the virus.  

Maybe just the opposite.  Likely see new builds cancelled or delayed.  Ships like Insignia etc, retained because they are fully owned. 

 

Just looking at the Regent WC which sales in January, people are already cancelling before final payment.  Closer to that date, I would expect a greater exodus.  2021 will be a tough year for cruises and Airlines.   I have seen some ICAO modeling of the airline recovery and the picture does not look pretty.  Even the strong Euro airlines like Lufthansa group are asking for handouts from the state.  Austrian asked for 767 million Euro.  Odd number 🙂

[Paulchili]

1 hour ago, PaulMCO said:

Austrian asked for 767 million Euro.  Odd number 🙂

They should have asked for 787 M 😀

[clo]

6 hours ago, pinotlover said:

On this particular board, we are fairly well split into two camps : Cruisers and Travelers. The cruisers overall don’t care where they’re going, they just want to be floating around on a ship , enjoying the ship. Travelers cruise primarily to get to specific locations with more ease than land travel options. I personally foresee Cruisers being diverted longer term from cruise ships more so than travelers. Time will tell. 

I've read this multiple times so hopefully I understand. We would, in your description, qualify as "travelers." We're "port-oriented" if cruising. But we'll travel to the moon and back - well, maybe not that 🙂 - without ever getting on a cruise ship. Again. We've done Antarctic, thank goodness, and would still like to go to the Galapagos (which I don't think has to be done on 'ships,' does it) Does that make sense? I've been accused of not always doing that 🙂

[Tutuma]

12 hours ago, Hawaiidan said:

NCL  stock  has been up for several days now..    People are creatures of habit and they will return to their favorite comfort zone.    With all the stress created by the over the top lock downs the urge to get out again will be extreme among these people..   That will drive O    Remembering O had no virus problems  it was all carnival and others.    O will be seen as a safe haven in the crowd in my opinion.      Human nature  will win in the end..... not media and political hype.  

We were on the Riviera Feb 26 - Mar 11 Southern Caribbean.  We were notified (by Oceania) after our return home that there was a passenger on our cruise that had COVID19. 

[Tutuma]

12 hours ago, Hawaiidan said:

NCL  stock  has been up for several days now..    People are creatures of habit and they will return to their favorite comfort zone.    With all the stress created by the over the top lock downs the urge to get out again will be extreme among these people..   That will drive O    Remembering O had no virus problems  it was all carnival and others.    O will be seen as a safe haven in the crowd in my opinion.      Human nature  will win in the end..... not media and political hype.  

We were on the Riviera Feb 26 - Mar 11 Southern Caribbean.  We were notified (by Oceania) after our return home that there was a passenger on our cruise that had COVID19. 

[clo]

10 hours ago, the more ports the better said:

Everyone, get tested!!!  It’s a relief to know you are not contagious and you can’t get sick.

That's in no way been proven. There's real concern that even having had the virus or a vaccine if there ever is one doesn't make one immune.

[PaulMCO]

12 hours ago, Paulchili said:

They should have asked for 787 M 😀

They would have if they had that model  🙂

[chivatosteve]

Back to the original topic, I wonder when/if Marina will get the NEXT upgrade.  Should have been in the yard now, not in Miami.

[Paulchili]

3 minutes ago, chivatosteve said:

Back to the original topic, I wonder when/if Marina will get the NEXT upgrade.  Should have been in the yard now, not in Miami.

When there is money for it 😀

Probably not at the top of the list of things to spend money on - at least I hope that refunding my money is higher on that list?

Edited April 30, 2020 by Paulchili

[RJB]

1 hour ago, Paulchili said:

When there is money for it 😀

Probably not at the top of the list of things to spend money on - at least I hope that refunding my money is higher on that list?

Refunds should be higher on the list.   But are the yards even open to do upgrades? 

[tocruiseguy]

2 hours ago, RJB said:

Refunds should be higher on the list.   But are the yards even open to do upgrades? 

Part of the problem cruise passengers will face is they will likely be sailing on ships that should have been refurbished but due to the economic calamity caused by the virus the cruise lines simply don't have the capital to spend in the near term.  Airlines will defer purchases of new planes as well, some of the damage to business travel with people realizing they can do a lot remotely will be permanent.  This will impact airfares as us business travellers, tend to book late and pay more, really subsidize vacation travellers who book months in advance.   So getting to the cruise ship will cost more at least in the medium term.  

 

Every way you slice it the tourism industry is in for a rough ride.  

[Mura]

From what I saw on the NY Times yesterday many of the shipyards are opening up again.  I didn't see a mention of the new Oceania ships, and didn't recall where they are supposed to be built.  So I can't specifically answer the question! But at least some of the shipyards are under work now ... with restrictions for the employees.

 

Mura

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Mura said:

From what I saw on the NY Times yesterday many of the shipyards are opening up again.  I didn't see a mention of the new Oceania ships, and didn't recall where they are supposed to be built.  So I can't specifically answer the question! But at least some of the shipyards are under work now ... with restrictions for the employees.

 

Mura

They're supposed to be built by the Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri. Delivery was planned for 2022 and 2025 so construction wouldn't have started yet. 

[RJB]

10 hours ago, njhorseman said:

They're supposed to be built by the Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri. Delivery was planned for 2022 and 2025 so construction wouldn't have started yet. 

Hope they are still planning to build them.  By then we will need something new to keep up our interest.  Same old does not always work no matter how good Oceania is with food and service.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, RJB said:

Hope they are still planning to build them.  By then we will need something new to keep up our interest.  Same old does not always work no matter how good Oceania is with food and service.

I think at best we can expect the construction of the first new ship to be delayed. The cruise lines are so short of cash right now that the last thing they can afford is to add to their existing debt burden. NCLH has already negotiated a debt holiday for the six newest NCL ships . Principal and interest payments due for the next year have been postponed. This will mean additional long term debt as the  company will have to pay additional interest on the deferred portion of the loans. 

[susiesan]

16 hours ago, tocruiseguy said:

So getting to the cruise ship will cost more at least in the medium term.  

 

Every way you slice it the tourism industry is in for a rough ride.  

The airlines are already starting to devalue their points in anticipation of reduced revenue. I have FF tickets from UA to fly business class on ET to Namibia for a safari tour in September, cost me 80K each way pp. If I have to postpone that trip into 2021 I will need 88K each way for the exact same flights.

[pinotlover]

6 hours ago, susiesan said:

The airlines are already starting to devalue their points in anticipation of reduced revenue. I have FF tickets from UA to fly business class on ET to Namibia for a safari tour in September, cost me 80K each way pp. If I have to postpone that trip into 2021 I will need 88K each way for the exact same flights.

You’ll be lucky, in a year from now if those tickets aren’t 200,000 each way! 
 

One of my biggest fears is that the cruise lines will turn FCC dollars into a system like ff mileage accounts, thus limiting cruise options. 

[AdoraBelle]

https://www.newsweek.com/colorado-purchased-100k-covid-19-tests-south-korea-kept-it-under-wraps-avoid-feds-seizure-1501554