Carnival Stock Below $10

[BlerkOne]

50 minutes ago, mz-s said:

Carnival has more debt than its assets are worth and isn't making money so the only reason the stock isn't at $0 now is investors believe the industry has at least some upside potential.

  

6 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

And yet this is the Carnival forum.

Carnival isn't the only player in the industry. None are in great shape. Some appear worse off.

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

Royal has over $20 billion in debt and a lot less cash on hand.

Food for thought…..

Carnival Corp has 92 ships with a market cap of $8.57 billion. Market cap is calculated by multiplying number of outstanding shares by last stock price. 

Royal Caribbean Corp has 61 ships with a market cap of $9.67 billion.

 

My conclusion is though Carnival has more upside, the smart money thinks Royal Caribbean is more promising as far as surviving, and prospering if this whole mess turns around in the near future.

[BlerkOne]

15 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Food for thought…..

Carnival Corp has 92 ships with a market cap of $8.57 billion. Market cap is calculated by multiplying number of outstanding shares by last stock price. 

Royal Caribbean Corp has 61 ships with a market cap of $9.67 billion.

 

My conclusion is though Carnival has more upside, the smart money thinks Royal Caribbean is more promising as far as surviving, and prospering if this whole mess turns around in the near future.

CCL EPS (TTM)

-8.31   RCL EPS (TTM) -20.79

[grandgeezer]

46 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

CCL EPS (TTM)

-8.31   RCL EPS (TTM) -20.79

EPS (TTM) is earning per shift 12 month trailing average. Stock price in based on what they think is going to happen in the future. Besides, RCL hasn’t released third quarter results yet, even though it might be negative it will be the most promising since Covid.

Market cap says what somebody could get the company for if they could get all the outstanding stock at last price paid. This includes all assets as well as all the liabilities.

Based on that, it would cost $1.1 billion more to buy RCL and get 31 less ships.

CCl stock: $7.03.  4 year low $7.01.  All time high $66.19

RCL stock: $37.90  4 year low $19.25.  All time high $133.47.

Last I read, somewhere, that 75% -80% of stock is traded by institutional investors, people who do it for a living to make money. Pretty obvious what they think.

 

 

 

[ano]

4 hours ago, mz-s said:

Carnival has more debt than its assets are worth and isn't making money so the only reason the stock isn't at $0 now is investors believe the industry has at least some upside potential.

+1

[BlerkOne]

38 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

EPS (TTM) is earning per shift 12 month trailing average. Stock price in based on what they think is going to happen in the future. Besides, RCL hasn’t released third quarter results yet, even though it might be negative it will be the most promising since Covid.

Market cap says what somebody could get the company for if they could get all the outstanding stock at last price paid. This includes all assets as well as all the liabilities.

Based on that, it would cost $1.1 billion more to buy RCL and get 31 less ships.

CCl stock: $7.03.  4 year low $7.01.  All time high $66.19

RCL stock: $37.90  4 year low $19.25.  All time high $133.47.

Last I read, somewhere, that 75% -80% of stock is traded by institutional investors, people who do it for a living to make money. Pretty obvious what they think.

 

 

 

Market cap is an illusion, but hold my beer for another reason.

 

Carnival is dual listed, so I think you would have to buy all CCL stock and CUK stock, but you wouldn't be able to do that for a static price. CUK adds another 7 billion market cap.

 

 

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

Market cap is an illusion, but hold my beer for another reason.

 

Carnival is dual listed, so I think you would have to buy all CCL stock and CUK stock, but you wouldn't be able to do that for a static price. CUK adds another 7 billion market cap.

 

 

CUK stock equally impressive. Five years ago, $65.46, Friday $6.19. Will the last one at Carnival Corp. turn the lights off and lock the doors for the final time.

EPS TTM is a complete useless stat, who cares what happened in the past, if you want to make some serious money, worry about the future.

[BlerkOne]

4 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

CUK stock equally impressive. Five years ago, $65.46, Friday $6.19. Will the last one at Carnival Corp. turn the lights off and lock the doors for the final time.

EPS TTM is a complete useless stat, who cares what happened in the past, if you want to make some serious money, worry about the future.

Diversion disallowed, and if you want to make serious money you start by ignoring stock advice found on Internet cruise boards. 

 

Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it 

[grandgeezer]

13 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Diversion disallowed, and if you want to make serious money you start by ignoring stock advice found on Internet cruise boards. 

 

Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it 

Stock market up big today, so far. RCL up, NCLH up, and then there’s CCL. In fact there is an article online today, from a respected source stating, if this recession last too long CCL might not survive. It was about the entire industry, but CCL was the only one singled out.

I’ve made real serious money in the almost 35 years I’ve been dabbling in it, even including this last downturn. I agree with the comment about taking advise about the market on this board, but the same could be said about some of the cruise advise.

The point stressed about playing the stock market, “Past performance doesn’t guarantee the future results.”

[NightOne]

9 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Stock market up big today, so far. RCL up, NCLH up, and then there’s CCL. In fact there is an article online today, from a respected source stating, if this recession last too long CCL might not survive. It was about the entire industry, but CCL was the only one singled out.

I’ve made real serious money in the almost 35 years I’ve been dabbling in it, even including this last downturn. I agree with the comment about taking advise about the market on this board, but the same could be said about some of the cruise advise.

The point stressed about playing the stock market, “Past performance doesn’t guarantee the future results.”

 

Also, taking a short position on a stock and then bad rapping it doesn't guarantee results. 😉

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, grandgeezer said:

“Past performance doesn’t guarantee the future results.”

It applies equally to stocks going up or down and is worthless as advice.

 

As an example, when hiring an employee or awarding a contract, references of past performance are invaluable, even though they guarantee nothing.

[cruisingguy007]

On 10/1/2022 at 12:13 PM, Calnev1 said:

This category likely includes those of us who have made deposits, or prepaid cruise fare, on various future cruises.   I wonder if someone who is good at this sort of thing can speculate as to 1) when, at current burn rates, Carnival Corporation might run out of $$$, and 2) an associated date range when a bankruptcy filing becomes more likely.  This info might help us (well, me . . . ) limit how far out in time we will book a future cruise!  🙂

 

All the folks who have a bunch of discounted gift cards should be in this group as well. There are some here with many thousands and those go poof if worst comes to worst. It must be on passengers minds since it was mentioned in the earnings call that there were a lot more folks booking close in vs years out as it had been pre-covid. Unless it's a super great promotion and you are OK risking the deposit (paying by credit card of course), why risk it? I'm sure that pattern will continue for a few years as no one wants to get "Crystaled".   

[cruisingguy007]

2 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

Stock market up big today, so far. RCL up, NCLH up, and then there’s CCL. In fact there is an article online today, from a respected source stating, if this recession last too long CCL might not survive. It was about the entire industry, but CCL was the only one singled out.

I’ve made real serious money in the almost 35 years I’ve been dabbling in it, even including this last downturn. I agree with the comment about taking advise about the market on this board, but the same could be said about some of the cruise advise.

The point stressed about playing the stock market, “Past performance doesn’t guarantee the future results.”

 

Meh, this just means RCL & NCLH are completely overvalued IMO. Hopium is powerful drug. 

[TwoBadKnees]

19 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

...  Unless it's a super great promotion and you are OK risking the deposit (paying by credit card of course), why risk it? I'm sure that pattern will continue for a few years as no one wants to get "Crystaled".   

It's been mentioned that some credit card companies are excluding, in certain conditions, travel related charges from their guarantees. The CC companies don't want to be "Crystaled" themselves again.

Edited October 3, 2022 by TwoBadKnees

[cruisingguy007]

9 minutes ago, TwoBadKnees said:

It's been mentioned that some credit card companies are excluding, in certain conditions, travel related charges from their guarantees. The CC companies don't want to be "Crystaled" themselves again.

 

I did see that posted after catching up, interesting angle, credit cards are sold on the built in protections, removing these protections could backfire or lead folks away from certain banks that remove them. I'd certainly chose the cards with the most protection(s).   

Edited October 3, 2022 by cruisingguy007

[mz-s]

13 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

I did see that posted after catching up, interesting angle, credit cards are sold on the built in protections, removing these protections could backfire or lead folks away from certain banks that remove them. I'd certainly chose the cards with the most protection(s).   

 

It’s tough because its a moving target. My most used card used to offer extended warranties and travel insurance, now it offers neither and as far as I am aware I was never told about the changes. Maybe on a statement somewhere on the last page in tiny print they told me but who reads their statements like that. Do I take the hit to my credit to close it and open a new card, or just deal with the loss of amenities?

[cruisingguy007]

6 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

It’s tough because its a moving target. My most used card used to offer extended warranties and travel insurance, now it offers neither and as far as I am aware I was never told about the changes. Maybe on a statement somewhere on the last page in tiny print they told me but who reads their statements like that. Do I take the hit to my credit to close it and open a new card, or just deal with the loss of amenities?

 

Never close, just get new ones and stop using the old ones. Amex still has some of those benefits and is worth looking into. 

[TwoBadKnees]

How exposed is the Saudi Carnival Corp investment to a CCL bankruptcy?

Would they invest more, or would they think that would be "putting good money after bad"?

[BlerkOne]

4 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

Stock market up big today, so far. RCL up, NCLH up, and then there’s CCL.

 

In fact, RCL closed DOWN

 

[BlerkOne]

3 minutes ago, TwoBadKnees said:

How exposed is the Saudi Carnival Corp investment to a CCL bankruptcy?

Would they invest more, or would they think that would be "putting good money after bad"?

They own billions and billions of dollars of Carnival stock and I wouldn't be surprised if they are also creditors for more billions to Carnival.

[Illbcruzn4life]

27 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

In fact, RCL closed DOWN

 

Yep at the end of the day Carnival dragged them down.

[bucfan2]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

 

In fact, RCL closed DOWN

 

Bottom of the 9th, 2 strikes, 2 outs, potential tying run in-the-hole lol, and you're still cheering.  I commend you.

[icft]

I've never traded CCL, but looking at the chart I might be tempted to buy a few lottery tickets on it around $5.00 if it gets down there.

[icft]

RCL might be interesting around $19 - 20.

[BlerkOne]

3 hours ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

Yep at the end of the day Carnival dragged them down.

Nah. The market saw the picture of a tray of greasy bacon and reacted.