Will Cruising Ever Recover

[BermudaBound2014]

19 minutes ago, seaoma said:

From my reading, it appears it is part of the requirements.

 

You can find it here: CDC   -   Cruise Ship Guidance   -   Technical Instructions for CDC's Covid-19 Program for Cruise Ships.

 

This document provides instructions for cruise lines operating foreign-flagged cruise ships^[1] in U.S. waters that have chosen to opt in to CDC’s COVID-19 Program for Cruise Ships.

 

Isolation of Symptomatic Travelers (Crew and Passengers) and Confirmed Cases and Quarantine of Close Contacts

Travelers with COVID-19-like illness (CLI) must be isolated using the same procedures as a traveler with confirmed COVID-19. If the symptomatic traveler has a negative SARS-CoV-2 test result, then isolation may be discontinued if a repeat NAAT result—collected at least 24 hours from the initial COVID-19 test—is negative. If an alternate infectious etiology is identified (through either laboratory testing or clinical diagnosis), routine infection control precautions (e.g., isolation) recommended for the diagnosis should be followed. For example, if symptomatic person has only vomiting and diarrhea and tests negative for COVID-19 twice, then acute gastroenteritis (AGE) protocols should be followed.

See the section Onboard COVID-19 Testing for Symptomatic Travelers (Crew and Passengers) and Close Contacts above for details about quarantine based on vaccination status.

• Isolate or quarantine travelers in single-occupancy cabins, with private bathrooms, with the door closed.
• Ensure predetermined isolation and quarantine cabins are in separate areas from other cabins.
  • If a traveler identified as a case or a close contact is disembarking the ship within 36 hours, the cruise ship operator may allow the traveler to stay in the original cabin if the traveler will be the only person in that cabin.
• Selection of cabins for isolation or quarantine should consider the following:
  • Proximity to the medical facility and gangways for ease of patient transport
  • Location in dead-end corridors or low-traffic areas to minimize potential exposures
  • Spacing between other occupied cabins to reduce transmission risk
  • Absence of interconnecting doors to reduce accidental exposures
  • Positioning within view of security cameras for enforcement of isolation or quarantine
  • Presence of balconies for psychological morale
• Isolated or quarantined travelers (except if the traveler is a child or other dependent person who needs a caregiver) must have no direct contact with other travelers except for designated medical staff.
• Designated medical staff or other personnel must wear proper personal protective equipment (PPE) per CDC guidance when in proximity to isolated or quarantined travelers.
• Meals must be delivered to individual cabins with no face-to-face interaction during this service.
• Cabins housing isolated or quarantined travelers should not be cleaned by crew members. Supplies such as paper towels, cleaners, and disinfectants, and extra linens can be provided to isolated or quarantined persons so they can clean their cabin by themselves as necessary.
• Food waste and other trash should be collected and bagged by the isolated or quarantined traveler and placed outside the cabin during designated times for transport to the waste management center for incineration or offloading.
• Soiled linens and towels should be bagged in water-soluble bags by the isolated or quarantined traveler and placed outside the cabin during designated times for transport to the laundry room.
• Consider use of surveillance cameras or security personnel to ensure compliance with isolation or quarantine protocols wherever possible.

 

Thank you for sharing this. I was able to find what you posted, however the conditions for isolation of quarantine passengers was revised on both February 17, 2022 and May 16, 2022 to allow more flexibility. I believe that is why I was able to link to the following information which does not include the bolded statement about predetermined location. I believe the below is the most recent documentation:

 

 

 

 

 

In any regard, it's confusing for those of us following along. It appears that the CDC may not be updating their site to reflect changes. Also, I would still note, that these are RECOMMENDATIONS and not requirements. Hence, taking us right back to my stance that if cruise ships could sell the cabins they would. But again, thank you for the documentation. It does help me to understand the confusion. 

 

 

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Mary229]

10 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Thank you for sharing this. I was able to find what you posted, however the conditions for isolation of quarantine passengers was revised on both February 17, 2022 and May 16, 2022 to allow more flexibility. I believe that is why I was able to link to the following information which does not include the bolded statement about predetermined location. I believe the below is the most recent documentation:

 

 

 

 

 

In any regard, it's confusing for those of us following along. It appears that the CDC may not be updating their site to reflect changes. Also, I would still note, that these are RECOMMENDATIONS and not requirements. Hence, taking us right back to my stance that if cruise ships could sell the cabins they would. But again, thank you for the documentation. It does help me to understand the confusion. 

 

 

 

The entire program is a recommendation.  As I have said before this is a self inflicted wound.  The cruise lines could break away and make their own policies that their market research and their safety teams deem prudent.  

[BermudaBound2014]

3 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

The entire program is a recommendation.  As I have said before this is a self inflicted wound.  The cruise lines could break away and make their own policies that their market research and their safety teams deem prudent.  

 

I am not trying to be a jerk here, but if you admit that the entire program is a recommendation, then why did you state that the CSO requires reserved cabins?

 

 

My position is that because demand is low, there are areas available to reserve cabins for quarantine. Not the other way around.

 

IMO: If demand increases, the areas reserved for quarantine shrink accordingly. If demand becomes 110%, these areas vanish and people will be quarantining in their own cabins. 

[Mary229]

Just now, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I am not trying to be a jerk here, but if you admit that the entire program is a recommendation, then why did you state that the CSO requires reserved cabins?

 

 

My position is that because demand is low, there are areas available to reserve cabins for quarantine. Not the other way around.

 

IMO: If demand increases, the areas reserved for quarantine shrink accordingly. If demand becomes 110%, these areas vanish and people will be quarantining in their own cabins. 

Because they have elected to be in the program.  To be in the program you need to follow the guidelines.   It is one of the biggest stupidities I have ever seen in the corporate world.  

[Mary229]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

If demand becomes 110%, these areas vanish and people will be quarantining in their own cabins. 

Many likely are.  The CSO requires crew testing. It is the crew by and large in those cabins not passengers.   This is anecdotal information that I have managed to get from the crew servicing the blocks.  On my European cruise a few Covid positive passengers decided to disembark 

[seaoma]

@BermudaBound2014

 

Can you link me to your information?

 

From what I understand the CSO expired in Jan. After that the cruise lines could choose to participate in the CDC's Covid-19 Program for Cruise Ships. All chose to participate and I believe the information I posted is the most recent requirement for that program.

 

The page I posted is on the page with an update of June 22, 2022.

 

ETA: Never mind I saw your link.

Edited July 17, 2022 by seaoma

[BermudaBound2014]

Thank everyone for a civil discussion (and disagreement). I suspect no one has changed their positions on the subject, but it's nice that this didn't disintegrate to name calling and virtue signaling as is so often the case with cruise discussions revolving around Covid protocols.

 

Happy Travels to all :). 

 

 

 

 

[seaoma]

@BermudaBound2014

 

The information you have posted is from a page titled: Interim Guidance for Ships on Managing Suspected or Confirmed Cases of Coronovirus Disease 2019 and is under the title Quarantine Basics.

 

I think the page is telling the cruise line how to manage cases, not what they must do to sail with covid. In other words, you must have cabins for QT and isolation(according to my link in a prior post) and then once you have the passengers and crew in those cabins, then your list of Quarantine Basics comes into play.

 

[BermudaBound2014]

@seaoma perhaps. I can see where one might draw that conclusion. I'm still not convinced ships aren't following this out of convenience and when the time comes where they can actually reach 110% occupancy, the reserved cabins will be sold. There is much gray area in the CSO including the number of cabins that cruise ships are recommended to hold. So when people toss out numbers like 10-15% of cabins are being held for quarantine it sounds completely outrageous to me given the current financials.  

 

I suppose that brings us right back to the catalyst for this entire discussion. I absolutely disagree with ldtr's claim that cruise ships are still blocking 10 to 15% of the cabins for quarantine. 

 

 

[Wakepatrol]

On 7/16/2022 at 12:22 PM, willoL said:

For our family, the continuation of COVID precautions is THE ONLY REASON we are willing to sail next month. Not everyone hates these policies, though I agree 100% that pre-cruise testing, for example, should be a swab taken at the port, immediately before one boards, and it should be arranged by the cruise line itself to both standardize the testing and make it less complex for passengers.

But if you take the test 2-3 days out like they have it now. You eliminate the risk of jumping on an airplane (possibly infecting other people on the plane) only to test positive on the pier and be refused boarding 

[seaoma]

3 minutes ago, Wakepatrol said:

But if you take the test 2-3 days out like they have it now. You eliminate the risk of jumping on an airplane (possibly infecting other people on the plane) only to test positive on the pier and be refused boarding 

 

No one says you can't test yourself before you get on a plane. If positive, you don't board. If you're negative, then take precautions to eliminate getting infected prior to the test at the port.

 

Port testing isn't happening anymore, but what continues to happen is that fewer and fewer people attempt to avoid covid before they travel.

 

We test before we travel. We test before we return to mingle with family after we travel. 

Edited July 17, 2022 by seaoma

[Redtravel]

Recover? It may take years. Pandemic is not over. Taking a cruise now is risky.  I was on a Cruise in March 2020. After sailing in circles with no access to ports, I was not ready to sail again. It took a lot of convincing to persuade me to sail again. Sailed in June. My spouse got Covid.  Staying close to home. 

[USN59-79]

On 7/15/2022 at 11:10 AM, mcrcruiser said:

Unfortunately we are 83 with medical underlying conditions .Therefore we no longer feel safe  on any cruise ship . We did our part during pre covid with taking 87 cruises   .

  For those who feel confident in their safety we hope that they enjoy all their cruises

We are in a similar situation; I will be 83 on our next cruise and my spouse is two years younger.  However, I try to think positively and think that by next March covid will be much less threatening than it is now.  I do have an underlying medical condition (leukemia caused by Agent Orange), but I have also been vaccinated and twice boosted, so I am not very concerned about that.  My biggest concern is not that the ships are ready to sail, but whether or not certain countries, like Japan, are ready to welcome cruise ships again.

[Nymich]

25 minutes ago, Redtravel said:

Recover? It may take years. Pandemic is not over. Taking a cruise now is risky.  I was on a Cruise in March 2020. After sailing in circles with no access to ports, I was not ready to sail again. It took a lot of convincing to persuade me to sail again. Sailed in June. My spouse got Covid.  Staying close to home. 

Given your circumstances that sounds like the right thing for YOU.  That being said we all have to let each other do what they think is best for THEM.  Hope your husband is well 

[Guest ldtr]

20 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Still waiting for a link. 

 

The facts are found in the Quarterly Releases filed with the Securities Exchange Committee where Arnold Donald (maybe it was Frank Del Rio) explained the self imposed limits at start up agreed upon between the CDC and cruise lines. It was 50% for the first 2 sailings, then 80% for the next two, working to 100% within 60 days.

 

Ships may still have entire floors reserved for covid but that's because they can't sell those cabins. All three CEO's are on record saying they want occupancy above 100%. If they could sell the cabin, they would. This isn't rocket science. 

Plenty of people talking about first hand experience on CCL line describing the areas that have been and still are reserved for quarantine space.  Those areas have been well described on both Princess and HAL boards.  

 

They are certainly on board for wanting 100% occupancy, but they certainly have not got it todate across all of their lines.  Especially not for the last quarter for CCL, where it was 69% when ships where certainly using half of one deck for quarantine space on both HAL and Princess.

 

Last comment was too funny, as many have reported, they have tried to book cabins in the covid quarantine deck areas and have had their cabins moved due to that space still be reserved.  

[Guest ldtr]

6 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

@seaoma perhaps. I can see where one might draw that conclusion. I'm still not convinced ships aren't following this out of convenience and when the time comes where they can actually reach 110% occupancy, the reserved cabins will be sold. There is much gray area in the CSO including the number of cabins that cruise ships are recommended to hold. So when people toss out numbers like 10-15% of cabins are being held for quarantine it sounds completely outrageous to me given the current financials.  

 

I suppose that brings us right back to the catalyst for this entire discussion. I absolutely disagree with ldtr's claim that cruise ships are still blocking 10 to 15% of the cabins for quarantine. 

 

 

YOu may not believe it but take the front half of a HAL deck and compare that to the overall number of cabins available and calculate your own percentage.  Or on a Princess Grand class with 1/2 of Aloha deck blocked off  or Princess Royal class with the front half of Dolphin deck blocked off.  Easy enough to calculate.  GO to the deck plans and look at the number of rooms and each section, multiply by 2 and then divide by the ship listed capacity.  The areas are always defined by fire doors.

 

Or a simple way is take the Grand class it has 5 decks that are used for passengers  Aloha, Baja, Carib, Dolphin and Emerald , there is a some cabins on lido and Aloha but a pretty small number compared to the main 5.  So take 1/2 of one of those decks and you end up with around 10% of the cabins space on that ship. 

 

Reason for the side of the space is pretty clear, the ships have to quarantine all new crew joining the ship.  This is the biggest user of that space.  They also quarantine any crew or passengers that test positive.

 

If you have been on a Princess or HAL ship lately you would notice that the fire doors that block off those sections carry a warning about access.  That it is a medical restricted area and they carry one of two markings.  Yellow for areas used for crew joining the ship for their quarantine area (yellow because they are in quarantine but have not tested positive) and Red for anyone in quarantine due to a positive test.

 

Both HAL and Princess block off sections of the ship using the fire doors  to prevent any passengers from wondering into the quarantine area.  They have usually put both crew and passengers in balcony cabins when quarantined in both the Yellow and Red areas.  Of course the ship also has inside cabins in that area, but as far as my discussions with both crew and medical staff they try not to have to use any, even for crew joining ship.  Both HAl and Princess also allow those in quarantine, including crew to smoke on their balconies.

Edited July 17, 2022 by ldtr

[BermudaBound2014]

@ldtr you've missed the entire point again.

 

BTW, I'm still waiting for an actual reference to this 'fact' 😉

 

[aliaschief]

2 hours ago, USN59-79 said:

We are in a similar situation; I will be 83 on our next cruise and my spouse is two years younger.  However, I try to think positively and think that by next March covid will be much less threatening than it is now.  I do have an underlying medical condition (leukemia caused by Agent Orange), but I have also been vaccinated and twice boosted, so I am not very concerned about that.  My biggest concern is not that the ships are ready to sail, but whether or not certain countries, like Japan, are ready to welcome cruise ships again.

Thanks for your service.🇺🇸 A crisp salute.
Chief Bruce 

[mcrcruiser]

Does anyone consider the problems of flying in todays world to get to any cruise ship .  Thousands of flight delays & cancellations .Thus ,how do the cruise lines deal with this on top of a virus that will never disappear  like the yearly flu ?

[BermudaBound2014]

@HappyInVan

 

I don't believe this is accurate.

 

The quote you choose above was from Jason Liberty (RCL CFO) in May of 2020 and, as you know, things have changed drastically since then in terms of financials.

 

Most dramatically is the obvious debt ratio. Currently, ships need a much larger load factor just to pay the interest on their debt.  The most current quote I can find from Jason Liberty was in May of 2022 in which he addresses the increased debt: 

 

"When you get to about a 90% load factor, you start to generate profit. Historically, that line of profitability can be lower, roughly 80%. But we have a lot more debt now." 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/retirement-longevity-risk-stock-market-51657907372

 

I realize he isn't talking cash neutral, but we  know your suggested figure of 70% occupancy to remain cash neutral is incorrect because CCL sailed at 69% capacity last quarter yet still increased their debt by nearly 2 Billion. In other words, in the current environment, sailing at 69% did not provide a cash neutral position. 

 

I don't consider providing accurate information to be argumentative 😉 

Edited July 18, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Guest ldtr]

On 7/17/2022 at 10:03 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

@seaoma perhaps. I can see where one might draw that conclusion. I'm still not convinced ships aren't following this out of convenience and when the time comes where they can actually reach 110% occupancy, the reserved cabins will be sold. There is much gray area in the CSO including the number of cabins that cruise ships are recommended to hold. So when people toss out numbers like 10-15% of cabins are being held for quarantine it sounds completely outrageous to me given the current financials.  

 

I suppose that brings us right back to the catalyst for this entire discussion. I absolutely disagree with ldtr's claim that cruise ships are still blocking 10 to 15% of the cabins for quarantine. 

 

 

Have you actually been on a HAL or Princess ship recently?  If you had then you could easily see just how much space they have marked off for quarantine space, both red and yellow zones.

 

I just got off the Ruby Princess last Saturday.  It is the 6th cruise I have been on this year.  On that cruise it was sold out for Balcony and above cabin classes for a month before cruise departure.

  There were still some insides available

 

Yet the ship still had the entire port side of Aloha deck blocked off in red and yellow zones.  Counter to your hypothesis that the ships are only blocking off those portions because they can not sell them, on that cruise they could have easily sold a number of the balcony cabins in that zone. 

 

The Ruby Princess has a capacity of 3080.  10% of that is in the Aloha deck portion that is blocked off.  The ship sailed with 2600 passengers and some empty inside cabins.

 

The cruise lines do not tell people how many Covid cases there are.  But plenty of reports he on CC if one cares to look on their experiences.  They (also) do not publish how much space is set aside for quarantine zones for both incoming crew (yellow) and positive cases (red).  But there is plenty of supporting posts here on CC in both Princess and HAL boards telling the areas that are being set aside.

 

For most people including those that have recently traveled and seen those areas that is sufficient evidence.

 

Believe what you want, the cruise lines do not publish because it is not in their best interest to do so.  

[BermudaBound2014]

4 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Have you actually been on a HAL or Princess ship recently?  If you had then you could easily see just how much space they have marked off for quarantine space, both red and yellow zones.

 

I just got off the Ruby Princess last Saturday.  It is the 6th cruise I have been on this year.  On that cruise it was sold out for Balcony and above cabin classes for a month before cruise departure.

  There were still some insides available

 

Yet the ship still had the entire port side of Aloha deck blocked off in red and yellow zones.  Counter to your hypothesis that the ships are only blocking off those portions because they can not sell them, on that cruise they could have easily sold a number of the balcony cabins in that zone. 

 

The Ruby Princess has a capacity of 3080.  10% of that is in the Aloha deck portion that is blocked off.  The ship sailed with 2600 passengers and some empty inside cabins.

 

The cruise lines do not tell people how many Covid cases there are.  But plenty of reports he on CC if one cares to look on their experiences.  They (also) do not publish how much space is set aside for quarantine zones for both incoming crew (yellow) and positive cases (red).  But there is plenty of supporting posts here on CC in both Princess and HAL boards telling the areas that are being set aside.

 

For most people including those that have recently traveled and seen those areas that is sufficient evidence.

 

Believe what you want, the cruise lines do not publish because it is not in their best interest to do so.  

 

This post is entirely irrelevant to the conversation. You continue to miss the point which has never been that ships don't have entire areas blocked off. Of course they do. My point is that if these cabins could be sold, they would (or at least a much larger percentage than 10-15% you claim as a fact).

 

Let me put it another way to help you understand:

-Ship goes on sale

-HAL blocks off all of deck 4 forward (less desirable cabins) from inventory.

-Ship proves to be popular and sells all remaining cabins

-I propose that, at this point, deck four forward (or at least a good portion of it) becomes available for purchase.

- If the ship never sells out, no harm no foul. HAL now has an entire block of cabins on deck four which can be used to quarantine if needed.

 

You have made claims which you state as facts, yet you can not provide any evidence (likely because no evidence exists). 

 

Until you can provide a reference, I'm not buying your 'facts' that cruise ships are withholding 10-15% of their inventory as it makes zero fiscal sense.    

[kazu]

2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

This post is entirely irrelevant to the conversation. You continue to miss the point which has never been that ships don't have entire areas blocked off. Of course they do. My point is that if these cabins could be sold, they would (or at least a much larger percentage than 10-15% you claim as a fact).

 

Let me put it another way to help you understand:

-Ship goes on sale

-HAL blocks off all of deck 4 forward (less desirable cabins) from inventory.

-Ship proves to be popular and sells all remaining cabins

-I propose that, at this point, deck four forward (or at least a good portion of it) becomes available for purchase.

- If the ship never sells out, no harm no foul. HAL now has an entire block of cabins on deck four which can be used to quarantine if needed.

 

You have made claims which you state as facts, yet you can not provide any evidence (likely because no evidence exists). 

 

Until you can provide a reference, I'm not buying your 'facts' that cruise ships are withholding 10-15% of their inventory as it makes zero fiscal sense.    

 

 

 

and ditto right back - you have no proof either and until the health protocols are lifted, HAL will continue to keep some cabins from sale.  When they are lifted everything will be open.  It’s pretty basic and not hard to get.  Otherwise sailings that were sold out would have had those cabins opened.  They didn’t.

[BermudaBound2014]

44 minutes ago, kazu said:

 

 

 

and ditto right back - you have no proof either and until the health protocols are lifted, HAL will continue to keep some cabins from sale.  When they are lifted everything will be open.  It’s pretty basic and not hard to get.  Otherwise sailings that were sold out would have had those cabins opened.  They didn’t.

 

I have provided a reference for my position via the quarterly release statements submitted to the SEC. To refresh: Arnold Donald is on record stating that Carnival is expected to sail at 110% occupancy for the summer season. In other words, they plan to sell each and every room. Where are the quarantine rooms when occupancy is at 110% (and there are a small number of ships sailing at this occupancy)?

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27776-carnival-cruise-line-to-operate-full-ships-this-summer-at-110-percent-occupancy.html#:~:text=With its full fleet sailing,and CEO of Carnival Corporation.

 

And I will acknowledge that there is a possibility HAL will hold a 'few' rooms for quarantine, but to hold onto the position that they are withholding 10-15% of the inventory when they could sell it is just plane silly IMO.

 

Edited July 18, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Mary229]

It’s over !  The CDC is out!  Breaking news, as of July 18 is out of the cruise game.