Did P&O Order the Wrong Ships?

[majortom10]

Just now, wowzz said:

Pulled out of service or cancelled four cruises - amounts to the same thing. 

An indictment of FO management that at a time when other cruise lines are sailing close to capacity,  that they cannot find enough passengers for four cruises !

It is in early December when all cruise lines struggle to fill their ships and to do so offer some very good deals normally. Unfortunately unless a few have booked early and paid a higher prices it will be harder to offer too low a price because of the price of fuel and food.

[wowzz]

7 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

It is in early December when all cruise lines struggle to fill their ships and to do so offer some very good deals normally. Unfortunately unless a few have booked early and paid a higher prices it will be harder to offer too low a price because of the price of fuel and food.

Hmm, I still don't buy it. FO have had plenty of time to adjust their prices and offer promotions.

[majortom10]

10 minutes ago, wowzz said:

If they cannot find enough passengers now, will they still be around in the future ?

I think many cruise lines will struggle with new bookings at the moment especially for the notoriously quieter month of December. With the cost of living crisis, inflation only going to get higher and people worried about gas/electricity bills think the notoriously difficult month of December pre christmas will affect many cruise lines.

[majortom10]

2 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Hmm, I still don't buy it. FO have had plenty of time to adjust their prices and offer promotions.

Perhaps they are just the first to react and we dont know if many will follow suit. End of the day all cruise lines can only offer discounts and promotions to a level and without enough bookings going below that price level would be economical suicide. 

[FamilyCruiserUK]

12 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

Perhaps they are just the first to react and we dont know if many will follow suit. End of the day all cruise lines can only offer discounts and promotions to a level and without enough bookings going below that price level would be economical suicide. 

Would be interesting to know at what capacity level is economically viable for ships to operate? Eg 70% occupancy to turn a profit.....

[Yorkypete]

30 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Pulled out of service or cancelled four cruises - amounts to the same thing. 

An indictment of FO management that at a time when other cruise lines are sailing close to capacity,  that they cannot find enough passengers for four cruises !

No. Your comment is a little unfair to Fred as it makes it look as if the vessel has stopped cruising. It has not and returns before Christmas. Would you say Iona has pulled out of Norways ports because it missed umpteen this year? Be fair.

[Megabear2]

25 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

I think many cruise lines will struggle with new bookings at the moment especially for the notoriously quieter month of December. With the cost of living crisis, inflation only going to get higher and people worried about gas/electricity bills think the notoriously difficult month of December pre christmas will affect many cruise lines.

P&O are showing not much availability or choice late November early December cruises.  Clearly the bigger ships are selling better because they can keep the price down.

 

I'd guess Fred's ships being smaller will fall into the trap Moley mentioned regarding Aurora/Arcadia capacity.  The percentage to turn a profit is much higher than with the bigger ships.

 

My aunt used fo sail Fred as her second choice after my uncle became restricted and wanted shorter journeys on smaller ships.  When she looked at coming back to cruising she said the prices were astronomically high and she'd therefore no longer consider them.

[wowzz]

22 minutes ago, Yorkypete said:

No. Your comment is a little unfair to Fred as it makes it look as if the vessel has stopped cruising. It has not and returns before Christmas. Would you say Iona has pulled out of Norways ports because it missed umpteen this year? Be fair.

Not comparable. Iona is still cruising, if not necessarily as per the original itineraries! 

As to being unfair to Fred - if the ship is not carrying paying customers,  it is, by definition, out of service.  

[wowzz]

29 minutes ago, FamilyCruiserUK said:

Would be interesting to know at what capacity level is economically viable for ships to operate? Eg 70% occupancy to turn a profit.....

This is an "angels on a pinhead" type of question. Insiders suggest that a modern ship can break even at about 40% capacity, but that figure only really relates to variable overheads. To start actually making an actual profit, your 70% figure is probably not far off.

But, these days, the big question is to how the financing of the enormous debt mountain is covered when calculating profit and loss. 

[terrierjohn]

56 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Hmm, I still don't buy it. FO have had plenty of time to adjust their prices and offer promotions.

I think that FO will struggle to be profitable with ships that have very limited balconies, and when they want to sell them at such a premium.

Any cruise line trying to survive without ships that offer a high proportion of balcony cabins, is going to struggle in the current economic climate.

[wowzz]

2 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

I think that FO will struggle to be profitable with ships that have very limited balconies, and when they want to sell them at such a premium.

Any cruise line trying to survive without ships that offer a high proportion of balcony cabins, is going to struggle in the current economic climate.

Indeed. I would imagine that Fred are haemorrhaging customers to Saga. New ships, all balconies, and comprable, if not cheaper fares.

[majortom10]

With my limited knowledge of FO & Saga I don't think many cruiser's will be leaving FO to Saga as they are a completely different price level. Something I will not let it worry me because I would have no interest in cruising with either.

Edited August 27, 2022 by majortom10

[wowzz]

4 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

With my limited knowledge of FO & Saga I don't think many cruiser's will be leaving FO to Saga as they are a completely different price level. Something I will not let it worry me because I would have no interest in cruising with either.

If you compare balcony cabin prices on both lines, I think you'll find that Fred are considerably more expensive.

[Denarius]

1 hour ago, wowzz said:

Indeed. I would imagine that Fred are haemorrhaging customers to Saga. New ships, all balconies, and comprable, if not cheaper fares.

Saga also have a transparent pricing structure, with fixed prices subject to early booking discounts which reduce as the ship fills. So potential passengers know that their cruise will not cost less next week, and could well cost more. So Saga customers tend to book early to take advantage of the best discounts.

[wowzz]

13 minutes ago, Denarius said:

Saga also have a transparent pricing structure, with fixed prices subject to early booking discounts which reduce as the ship fills. So potential passengers know that their cruise will not cost less next week, and could well cost more. So Saga customers tend to book early to take advantage of the best discounts.

Good point.

[majortom10]

Would never book with Saga because all the things offered are included in the price and I wouldnt want "shared" transport to Southampton and I never do excursions so that is a total waste of money.

[FamilyCruiserUK]

I think the thing i take away is as far as i know and can work out, not one of the main cruise lines are building smaller ships. The economics show its easier to build big but more economical. Less over heads and staff but more passengers.

[Yorkypete]

17 minutes ago, FamilyCruiserUK said:

I think the thing i take away is as far as i know and can work out, not one of the main cruise lines are building smaller ships. The economics show its easier to build big but more economical. Less over heads and staff but more passengers.

 

18 minutes ago, FamilyCruiserUK said:

I think the thing i take away is as far as i know and can work out, not one of the main cruise lines are building smaller ships. The economics show its easier to build big but more economical. Less over heads and staff but more passengers.

 As far as things go, that is correct and larger ships probably do make bigger and more sustainable profits when the vessel is not full.  Of course things may be very different in the near future. If the forcaston the energy and econamy is correct then less people will have money for cruising. Another pandemic would hit the market as well. Another point to consider is the climate and as more countries turn 'green'  the more may well banlage cruise ships from their ports (as is happening in Norway and Venice). There is a lot for cruise lines to consider including fuel costs!

 

[wowzz]

25 minutes ago, FamilyCruiserUK said:

I think the thing i take away is as far as i know and can work out, not one of the main cruise lines are building smaller ships. The economics show its easier to build big but more economical. Less over heads and staff but more passengers.

Although the subsidiaries of the major cruise lines are all building small ships, plus the likes of Viking.

[Windsurfboy]

2 hours ago, Denarius said:

Saga also have a transparent pricing structure, with fixed prices subject to early booking discounts which reduce as the ship fills. So potential passengers know that their cruise will not cost less next week, and could well cost more. So Saga customers tend to book early to take advantage of the best discounts.

 

True but if things are selling slowly they offer last minute guarantee fares,  which can be cheaper and get round their price promise  as all orginal sales are select cabin

[wowzz]

1 hour ago, majortom10 said:

Would never book with Saga because all the things offered are included in the price and I wouldnt want "shared" transport to Southampton and I never do excursions so that is a total waste of money.

I'm sure the Saga accountants will not be losing too much sleep over your decisiin !

[wowzz]

50 minutes ago, FamilyCruiserUK said:

I think the thing i take away is as far as i know and can work out, not one of the main cruise lines are building smaller ships. The economics show its easier to build big but more economical. Less over heads and staff but more passengers.

I count 30 new ships to be delivered by the end of 2024 with passenger capacity of less than 1000. 

[FamilyCruiserUK]

9 minutes ago, wowzz said:

I count 30 new ships to be delivered by the end of 2024 with passenger capacity of less than 1000. 

Then i stand corrected.

But is that any of the main cruise lines? 

 

 

[wowzz]

51 minutes ago, FamilyCruiserUK said:

Then i stand corrected.

But is that any of the main cruise lines? 

 

 

Some are subsidiary brands of the main cruise lines.

[Host Sharon]

As someone with cruises booked on Saga and Fred, I can say Fred is quite a lot more expensive for what you get - having to add on transport and tips alone, neither of which are optional. Where Fred win however, is their choice of itineraries and ports, only accessible to smaller ships. I have also heard on the grapevine rumours Saga are considering a third new build, powered by hydrogen.  On my recent Baltic cruise with Saga there were a substantial number of P&O refugees looking for the type of cruise P&O used to offer. I didn't hear anyone say they would return to P&O.