Wall Street Sinks Carnival

[jeff74]

CCL's stock price is unfortunately more important to my decision making process about future HAL cruises than I wish it would be.  The stock price is nothing more of the expected future value of a company's cash flow and profits and as such the going concern of the company can weigh heavily into the calculation.  From comparing CCL's performance to the broader market or the cruise industry in particular I can get a sense of whether or not their lackluster performance is systemic and a reflection of the entire market, if it's more within the cruise industry or if there are potentially challenges that are more drastic with HAL's parent company.

 

IMHO, CCL's stock price is getting to a level where I have to ask myself if HAL will be around for a future cruise that I might book in 2023/2024 or if could they be operating in perhaps a radically different fashion than current operations.  My in-laws and their friends have a cruise next year and while they like to pay off their balances early I've suggested that they wait until the payment is due so that if a worst-case scenario of not only a bankruptcy but ceasing of operations did happen that they wouldn't be out much money.  Maybe this is extreme but in general I'm not a fan of giving someone else my money before I'm contractually obligated to do so.

 

Just my 2 cents and I appreciate that opinions can and do differ...

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

2 hours ago, Tampa Girl said:

 

Agree.  CCL's financials are very much of interest to CCL cruisers.  They affect the price of the cruise, possibly the quality of the service, the perks, the quality of shipboard amenities, etc., etc.  Comparing discussions of general medical info re the condition of the parent company ultimately controlling HAL is trying to compare apples and oranges.  I, for one, appreciate this thread because it affects whether or not and when I will book a HAL cruise.

I am on the Rotterdam and I don't see any Quality change.. 

[BermudaBound2014]

Of course, bankruptcy is pure speculation, but at this point in the journey it's reasonable to at least make yourself aware of what might happen. Knowledge is power. Preparation is key.

 

Anyone here remember when Regency Cruise lines filed bankruptcy? Passengers were onboard and they just stopped the voyage. Some ports didn't want to allow the ships back in to debark passengers because the cruise line couldn't pay the port fee. Crew got stuck onboard too, eventually selling off TV's to buy food.... (if it didn't actually happen it would be funny).

 

Ironically, I was coming off a Regency cruise into Montego Bay and experienced Eastern Airlines filing bankruptcy. They just stopped flying. Took us three days to get home via Northwest Airlines and it's a good thing we had cash at the ticket counter.

 

Of course this is an absolute worse case scenario, but I'm headed out on a cruise in the very near future and I am aware of what may happen (although highly unlikely) and have a plan to respond. If I've learned anything in my travels it's to always have a Plan B and be prepared to roll with the flow. 

[Florida_gal_50]

3 hours ago, jeff74 said:

CCL's stock price is unfortunately more important to my decision making process about future HAL cruises than I wish it would be.  The stock price is nothing more of the expected future value of a company's cash flow and profits and as such the going concern of the company can weigh heavily into the calculation.  From comparing CCL's performance to the broader market or the cruise industry in particular I can get a sense of whether or not their lackluster performance is systemic and a reflection of the entire market, if it's more within the cruise industry or if there are potentially challenges that are more drastic with HAL's parent company.

 

IMHO, CCL's stock price is getting to a level where I have to ask myself if HAL will be around for a future cruise that I might book in 2023/2024 or if could they be operating in perhaps a radically different fashion than current operations.  My in-laws and their friends have a cruise next year and while they like to pay off their balances early I've suggested that they wait until the payment is due so that if a worst-case scenario of not only a bankruptcy but ceasing of operations did happen that they wouldn't be out much money.  Maybe this is extreme but in general I'm not a fan of giving someone else my money before I'm contractually obligated to do so.

 

Just my 2 cents and I appreciate that opinions can and do differ...

I agree, why part with your money before you have to? I don’t even want to pay it when it’s due.  I’m a person who pays my credit cards off every month too.

[mcrcruiser]

12 hours ago, Florida_gal_50 said:

Prices in December at that time are pretty cheap on any line.  You can’t compare March to that.  I paid multiples of that price for my cruise in the fall.

What I am saying is we see prices in general down  not up  vs 2019  pre pandemic   .We paid more in 2019 than we are doing today . 

We definitely took out vendor default in our trip insurances  ;because no one knows for sure  that any CCL or RCL ship will sail as planed 

[Florida_gal_50]

11 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

What I am saying is we see prices in general down  not up  vs 2019  pre pandemic   .We paid more in 2019 than we are doing today . 

We definitely took out vendor default in our trip insurances  ;because no one knows for sure  that any CCL or RCL ship will sail as planed 

I think some just love to go to the worst possible outcome.  I’m not convinced that’s going to happen and I’m definitely a glass half empty person. 

[LocoLoco1]

It appears ‘The Big 3’ are pricing Cabins at rock bottom. When Wall Street is unkind; with CCL stock at a 30/yr low of $7, (never mind Fuel and whispers of Recession being very real).. it’s merely prudent us cruisers keep an eye on such things. Silly not to. With a fully insured TransAtlantic coming up, I want to be ready for whatever; so I am helping as best I can.  Nobody is forced to read these posts…

[mcrcruiser]

5 minutes ago, Florida_gal_50 said:

I think some just love to go to the worst possible outcome.  I’m not convinced that’s going to happen and I’m definitely a glass half empty person. 

Just be cautious with my money  by  including vendor default . does not cost that much more adding   it in to a trip policy  . Id rather loose a hundred that thousands  . We too  try to be  positive in a negative world these days 

[Florida_gal_50]

10 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Just be cautious with my money  by  including vendor default . does not cost that much more adding   it in to a trip policy  . Id rather loose a hundred that thousands  . We too  try to be  positive in a negative world these days 

No I’m a glass half empty person not a glass half full person.  That said some take the negative outlook to an extreme.

[mcrcruiser]

1 hour ago, Florida_gal_50 said:

No I’m a glass half empty person not a glass half full person.  That said some take the negative outlook to an extreme.

Talking about the cruise industry in todays reality tells us that there are very rough waters ahead for this industry  . Main reason is consumers will be pulling in their spending because salary  raises are in the 5% area while inflation is running above 9 %  or higher  .This is why the Federal Reserve is increasing interest rates & willl continue to do so .  These increased rates impact Carnival corp & othere lines hugely . Example for every one percent ,Yes 1 % increase in the Federal rate   ,Carnival  Corp must make  $196 million  dollars  in "profit" not gross sales just to break even  .  Sales of berths is not increasing  into the future but decreasing ;because consumers need to spend their monies on  needed items like heating ,clothes ,food ie   .Then the cruise lines will be forced to drop prices adding more pressure to the bottom line  

 

 Another death blow can be that Carnival  Corp  float more stock &  keep diluting share holder value  .They already floated a additional  one billion dollars more shares 

 

 The US did not bring about this catastrophic  condition with a  covid pandemic  ;but ,US industry is paying a dear price for it as well as consumers 

 

 

[LocoLoco1]

I agree. Outside events beyond Cruiseline’s control will ACTUALLY dictate what their future guests can expect onboard. It can’t be otherwise. That’s the hospitality  business, folks. 

[Stateroom_Sailor]

On 10/1/2022 at 11:42 AM, jeff74 said:

CCL's stock price is unfortunately more important to my decision making process about future HAL cruises than I wish it would be.  The stock price is nothing more of the expected future value of a company's cash flow and profits and as such the going concern of the company can weigh heavily into the calculation.  From comparing CCL's performance to the broader market or the cruise industry in particular I can get a sense of whether or not their lackluster performance is systemic and a reflection of the entire market, if it's more within the cruise industry or if there are potentially challenges that are more drastic with HAL's parent company.

 

IMHO, CCL's stock price is getting to a level where I have to ask myself if HAL will be around for a future cruise that I might book in 2023/2024 or if could they be operating in perhaps a radically different fashion than current operations.  My in-laws and their friends have a cruise next year and while they like to pay off their balances early I've suggested that they wait until the payment is due so that if a worst-case scenario of not only a bankruptcy but ceasing of operations did happen that they wouldn't be out much money.  Maybe this is extreme but in general I'm not a fan of giving someone else my money before I'm contractually obligated to do so.

 

Just my 2 cents and I appreciate that opinions can and do differ...

 

We've reduced our risk by buying a timeshare off Ebay for $250.  We've spent 4 nights in Waikiki this year, and have 4 nights coming up in Park City, UT.  Next year we're spending 9 nights in Sedona, AZ during film and wine festivals, that would have cost $2,700 at the cheapest 3 star hotel.  Only a Super 8 outside of town, would match our fees of $1,070.  It is a scammy industry, but we like being a part of another program, which helps us save money by reducing our # of cruises.

 

It might be time to consider a foot in the door into other options, including organized land tours, all inclusive resorts, hotel loyalty, Airbnb, casino offers, RV, etc.  We'll keep cruising, even knowing the risk, but I don't have all my eggs in one basket.

[LocoLoco1]

Reading Carnival CEO’s recent comments spoke volumes: ‘I have very high expectations that Revenue Enhancements will come from all areas. Some big, some small..’ I read that to mean, ‘Charge for the peanuts, pillow chocolates and hors d’oeuvres..’  Too bad. 

[kangforpres]

HAL still holding it's own with Conde Nast ratings, this is from 2021, which was the Covid year

 

https://www.cntraveller.com/gallery/best-cruise-lines-in-the-world-2021

 

I'm sure nobody who is a premium line regular on any line is happy with service since they have returned to cruising

Edited October 3, 2022 by kangforpres

[Sir PMP]

8 minutes ago, kangforpres said:

HAL still holding it's own with Conde Nast ratings, this is from 2021, which was the Covid year

 

https://www.cntraveller.com/gallery/best-cruise-lines-in-the-world-2021

 

I'm sure nobody who is a premium line regular on any line is happy with service since they have returned to cruising

Conde Nast is just trying to keep everybody happy.

[Sir PMP]

The good old days:

 

 

 

[mystik]

Do many people here have more than 100 share since its way down what are the pros and cons with more than 100

[aliaschief]

16 minutes ago, mystik said:

Do many people here have more than 100 share since its way down what are the pros and cons with more than 100

As far as OBC goes nothing. Just need a 100 shares. If you had a 1000 shares the OBC would be the same.

[albingirl]

19 minutes ago, mystik said:

Do many people here have more than 100 share since its way down what are the pros and cons with more than 100

No point to it unless you feel happy about losing alot of money.

[PACD_JG]

32 minutes ago, aliaschief said:

As far as OBC goes nothing. Just need a 100 shares. If you had a 1000 shares the OBC would be the same.

Now that would be an interesting strategy for the CCL brands....making your OBC dependent on how many shares you own.  For example - 100 shares gets you $100, and then you get 20 cents for every share you own after that, so somebody with 200 shares would get $120, somebody with 1000 shares would get $280.

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, mystik said:

Do many people here have more than 100 share since its way down what are the pros and cons with more than 100

 

I have more than 100 shares, but it's short 😉

 

Pro: Cruising isn't going to go anywhere. It will always be around. If you subscribe to the 'too big to fail' model of investing, CCL is, by a long shot, the biggest of the three. There is plenty of upside potential at this price, especially if you are sailing in the near future for the OBC. It's currently trading in the 6's. 

 

Con: The debt is massive. Like nothing seen before in this industry. They are currently not making enough money to pay the interest payments on their debt let alone any profit for shareholders. If you do invest now, and the company survives without restructuring, you will likely have a very very slow recovery.

 

I wouldn't invest anything you aren't prepared to lose either short or long. If you are considering this solely for the OBC and are traveling soon (before July 2023), there is a decent return on investment. Keep in mind, the shareholder obc is voted on each year and could go away after July 2023. If the company restructures, shareholders will be wiped clean. However; 100 shares is under $700 so if you are playing in the market, that's just not a lot to lose.

[kangforpres]

I'm gonna wait until it goes to $1.06 before I buy my 100 shares

[LocoLoco1]

If one was handed their latest numbers to look over and knew NOTHING else, the cold hard numbers would concern anybody. Wall Street made CCL a $7/sh. stock today for a rational reason. 

[SetAnOpenCourse]

On 10/3/2022 at 10:14 AM, Sir PMP said:

The good old days:

 

 

 

People like to be outside in an unstructured area.  In other words, on a promenade deck.

[LocoLoco1]

Ballroom dancing. Dance hosts. Poolside bands. Trapshooting off the Aft deck. Lobster meals in MDR. Methinks if you missed it.. you missed it permanently. Guessing everything will be ala carte from now on including chocolate on the pillow and evening turndown towel animals unless you book on a swanky cruiseline. Lets see if I’m wrong…