Upgrade bidding - first come, first serve?

[dbrown84]

does anyone know (or think) if a preference is given to equal bids based on which bid was put in first?  I'm asking because I want to change the credit card on my bid (my cruise is 12 days out), but it doesn't give you that option on the bidding site.  I know I can just cancel my bid and put in a new one with the different card, but I'm wondering if I'd lose a "place in line" because now my bid is just being put in.  I'm already doing a minimum bid so I don't want to make my chances any lower.  Either way, I'm cruising in 12 days!!!  It's my first time out since the pandemic and I've missed the ocean 🙂

[PATRLR]

I don't know the answer.  But if you just up your bid by $10, you will instantly be ahead of where you were in line, if the line is ordered by bid amount as the primary key.

[julig22]

Nobody knows for sure.  It could be random but IMO "seniority"  is a real possibility if it gets to that point.  I personally wouldn't change my bid unless there is a problem with the credit card.

[dbrown84]

2 hours ago, PATRLR said:

I don't know the answer.  But if you just up your bid by $10, you will instantly be ahead of where you were in line, if the line is ordered by bid amount as the primary key.

excellent, Smithers 🙂

[BirdTravels]

6 hours ago, dbrown84 said:

does anyone know (or think) if a preference is given to equal bids based on which bid was put in first?  I'm asking because I want to change the credit card on my bid (my cruise is 12 days out), but it doesn't give you that option on the bidding site.  I know I can just cancel my bid and put in a new one with the different card, but I'm wondering if I'd lose a "place in line" because now my bid is just being put in.  I'm already doing a minimum bid so I don't want to make my chances any lower.  Either way, I'm cruising in 12 days!!!  It's my first time out since the pandemic and I've missed the ocean 🙂

No one knows how the magic system works. 

 

Remember, the starting and max bid price is dependent upon where you are starting from. You can bid on a Haven's Owner's Suite if you have a balcony. You can also bid on it if your have a 2BR Haven Suite. The starting bid is different between the two. So "who wins" is also part of the magic system. 

[mking8288]

Lately, with ships sailing nowhere close to capacity, even if your rock bottom bid did not end up "processing" - you could still win at pier check-in with a last minute surprise.  Furthermore, you can go to onboard Guest Services on ask on the spot about paying for and negotiating an upgrade - signage no longer seen lately on many (most ?) sailing that no "upgrade" available onboard.  As usual, YMMV.

 

Advantage of the onboard approach, if you don't like the price, location & the deal, you can say no and decline it, unlike the mostly "blind" bidding where ... none of us have a clear, easy and can only guess what the outsourced vending company doing the bid acceptance has it formulated. 

[dbrown84]

16 minutes ago, mking8288 said:

Lately, with ships sailing nowhere close to capacity, even if your rock bottom bid did not end up "processing" - you could still win at pier check-in with a last minute surprise.  Furthermore, you can go to onboard Guest Services on ask on the spot about paying for and negotiating an upgrade - signage no longer seen lately on many (most ?) sailing that no "upgrade" available onboard.  As usual, YMMV.

 

Advantage of the onboard approach, if you don't like the price, location & the deal, you can say no and decline it, unlike the mostly "blind" bidding where ... none of us have a clear, easy and can only guess what the outsourced vending company doing the bid acceptance has it formulated. 

Thanks.  Great advice.  Honestly, it's not that big of a deal really.  I'm totally fine with an inside cabin.  I actually like that fact that I can get it pitch black when I take an afternoon nap.  I did put in a bid to upgrade to balcony ($150 total) just to see if I could get a cheap upgrade.  If I get it, great.  If not, let the drinking begin.  I know I'm not going to stand in the lines at guest services on that first day.

[joedel]

I’m not sure

Our last Ncl cruise may 2019 

we were on way from Florida to Rome and we received our call the day before  

we booked a mini suite jade italy / Greece 11 day. And they accepted our min bid of 1500 total for the 2 bedroom villa 

amazing trip and cabin

[spanishguy1970]

7 hours ago, haolenate said:

I actually know the person who is in charge of this 🙂

 

The bidding takes into account:

 

1. Your financial contribution to the sailing  (your total fare paid, extras you've paid, history of sailing with NCL and your average onboard spend)

2. Your Latitudes Status

3. #1 factored in to the ability for NCL to then either resell your cabin by sailing date, or accept a bid from someone who wants your cabin.

 

I had a friend who dropped nearly $1700 on his last cruise bid up to a spa balcony from a regular balcony for only $200 and he got it, whereas one of our friends, also on the cruise, 1st time NCL'er, bid $200 and did NOT get it.  

thank you and very interesting. I've always wondered about this.

[julig22]

9 hours ago, haolenate said:

I actually know the person who is in charge of this 🙂

 

The bidding takes into account:

 

1. Your financial contribution to the sailing  (your total fare paid, extras you've paid, history of sailing with NCL and your average onboard spend)

2. Your Latitudes Status

3. #1 factored in to the ability for NCL to then either resell your cabin by sailing date, or accept a bid from someone who wants your cabin.

 

I had a friend who dropped nearly $1700 on his last cruise bid up to a spa balcony from a regular balcony for only $200 and he got it, whereas one of our friends, also on the cruise, 1st time NCL'er, bid $200 and did NOT get it.  

Sorry, don't buy it. Bidding is outsourced.  

[PATRLR]

33 minutes ago, julig22 said:

Sorry, don't buy it. Bidding is outsourced.  

I don't understand, is it not possible to know the people it was outsourced to?

 

All of the information described could easily be made available to an outsourced company.

[julig22]

20 minutes ago, PATRLR said:

I don't understand, is it not possible to know the people it was outsourced to?

 

All of the information described could easily be made available to an outsourced company.

Sure it could but is TMI. And points 1&2 make no sense from a business perspective, bidding is not a reward system as far as I know.

The point of bidding is to increase revenue so what has already been paid, etc. means nothing in that context. You are already booked on the ship, paid what you paid, probably won't spend more just because you are upgraded.

Bidding is done through a computer algorithm. And I don't believe "the guy who is in charge" is divulging the bidding parameters, to be randomly posted on social media.

[PATRLR]

7 minutes ago, julig22 said:

Sure it could but is TMI. And points 1&2 make no sense from a business perspective, bidding is not a reward system as far as I know.

The point of bidding is to increase revenue so what has already been paid, etc. means nothing in that context. You are already booked on the ship, paid what you paid, probably won't spend more just because you are upgraded.

Bidding is done through a computer algorithm. And I don't believe "the guy who is in charge" is divulging the bidding parameters, to be randomly posted on social media.

I have no clue if @haolenate is being truthful or not.  But I could easily implement what he describes in a rather simple program using rather simple database querys.  Let's look a bit closer at what was described:

10 hours ago, haolenate said:

1. Your financial contribution to the sailing  (your total fare paid, extras you've paid,

Easy to get from a database and make sense - give the upgrade to the people who've paid more already

history of sailing with NCL and your average onboard spend)

This sounds like what the sports team I have season tickets too calls a "fan score".  My seat upgrades and other benefits are based on my fan score.  I can easily imagine NCL having something similar, again, easily obtained from a database.

2. Your Latitudes Status

Easy to get this info too

3. #1 factored in to the ability for NCL to then either resell your cabin by sailing date, or accept a bid from someone who wants your cabin.

I can imagine NCL identifying "hot" cabin categories or categories that they could sell easier than others.  The outsourcer would have additional information on who's bid for categories (thereby also creating a demand).  
All these things could easily be used to implement an algorithm.

Or, @haolenate could be full  of it.  I don't suppose we'll ever know.

.  

 

[julig22]

2 minutes ago, PATRLR said:

I have no clue if @haolenate is being truthful or not.  But I could easily implement what he describes in a rather simple program using rather simple database querys.  Let's look a bit closer at what was described:

 

1. Your financial contribution to the sailing  (your total fare paid, extras you've paid,

Easy to get from a database and make sense - give the upgrade to the people who've paid more already

history of sailing with NCL and your average onboard spend)

This sounds like what the sports team I have season tickets too calls a "fan score".  My seat upgrades and other benefits are based on my fan score.  I can easily imagine NCL having something similar, again, easily obtained from a database.

2. Your Latitudes Status

Easy to get this info too

3. #1 factored in to the ability for NCL to then either resell your cabin by sailing date, or accept a bid from someone who wants your cabin.

I can imagine NCL identifying "hot" cabin categories or categories that they could sell easier than others.  The outsourcer would have additional information on who's bid for categories (thereby also creating a demand).  
All these things could easily be used to implement an algorithm.

Or, @haolenate could be full  of it.  I don't suppose we'll ever know.

 

Of course anything can be put into a database and used in the algorithim - my point is that it's not necessary to include in an algorithm if their goal is to increase income, so why bother? Keep it simple.  Upgrades are not part of NCL's reward benefit program, unlike your season ticket example.

Point #3 is the only information actually needed to increase revenue. In the event of a tie, they have many alternative ways to choose - from FCFS (booking date, bid date), random draw.  While they could use status or "spending" as a tiebreaker, it's really not necessary.  Again, keep it simple.

If they really wanted to look beyond the sailing at hand, it could also be easily argued that the better "reward" approach would be to upgrade new customers.  Once in a balcony, won't want to go back, once in Haven, won't want to go back...

But just my opinion.  I don't know a guy

[phillygwm]

We can't see into the "black box" but post #9 is at least sensical.  I'd think the bid amount would be top priority but, among people with identical bids, it would stand to reason that someone's Lat status would have something to do with it.  Also, total amount paid makes sense.  If timing plays any role I'd think it would be a tiebreaker way down the line.  But how all the factors are weighted will probably be one of the great mysteries of life.

[BirdTravels]

42 minutes ago, haolenate said:

Well, people can think what they want.  I just provide commentary.

 

Look at where I'm located.

 

And then think about the people I get to meet, owning a tourism business, in a market where said cruise line is trying to build a cruise port and getting pushback from the community.   We get a LOT of visitors from Miami here.

 

(NCL does use a PAID system, but someone has to run it, set parameters, and monitor it... the upgrades are not automated. I can't disclose more information without outing myself, which happened with the Princess Medallion program - and had a face-to-face with Jan Swartz about it when she was here).

Can you provide a web link to the source of your commentary?

[Karaboudjan]

1 hour ago, julig22 said:

1. Your financial contribution to the sailing  (your total fare paid, extras you've paid,

Easy to get from a database and make sense - give the upgrade to the people who've paid more already

history of sailing with NCL and your average onboard spend)

This sounds like what the sports team I have season tickets too calls a "fan score".  My seat upgrades and other benefits are based on my fan score.  I can easily imagine NCL having something similar, again, easily obtained from a database.

2. Your Latitudes Status

Easy to get this info too

3. #1 factored in to the ability for NCL to then either resell your cabin by sailing date, or accept a bid from someone who wants your cabin.

I can imagine NCL identifying "hot" cabin categories or categories that they could sell easier than others.  The outsourcer would have additional information on who's bid for categories (thereby also creating a demand).  
All these things could easily be used to implement an algorithm.

Or, @haolenate could be full  of it.  I don't suppose we'll ever know.

 

Of course anything can be put into a database and used in the algorithim - my point is that it's not necessary to include in an algorithm if their goal is to increase income, so why bother? Keep it simple.  Upgrades are not part of NCL's reward benefit program, unlike your season ticket example.

Point #3 is the only information actually needed to increase revenue. In the event of a tie, they have many alternative ways to choose - from FCFS (booking date, bid date), random draw.  While they could use status or "spending" as a tiebreaker, it's really not necessary.  Again, keep it simple.

If they really wanted to look beyond the sailing at hand, it could also be easily argued that the better "reward" approach would be to upgrade new customers.  Once in a balcony, won't want to go back, once in Haven, won't want to go back...

But just my opinion.  I don't know a guy

 

I agree.  After looking at the Plusgrade web site I am inclined to think this is more forward-looking than just building immediate revenue and 'rewarding' people for things like Latitudes status and how much you have spent in the past.  I think the idea is to turn a balcony person into a Haven person, oceanview person into a balcony person, etc...

 

I don't disagree that the factors that were shared are taken into consideration, but I don't think it's clear how they affect the outcome.  

 

[PATRLR]

34 minutes ago, Karaboudjan said:

I don't disagree that the factors that were shared are taken into consideration, but I don't think it's clear how they affect the outcome.  

Agreed.  The devil is in the details, or, in this case the algorithm.  

[spanishguy1970]

On 10/3/2022 at 6:59 PM, dbrown84 said:

Thanks.  Great advice.  Honestly, it's not that big of a deal really.  I'm totally fine with an inside cabin.  I actually like that fact that I can get it pitch black when I take an afternoon nap.  I did put in a bid to upgrade to balcony ($150 total) just to see if I could get a cheap upgrade.  If I get it, great.  If not, let the drinking begin.  I know I'm not going to stand in the lines at guest services on that first day.

Hello, Fellow Rockville Maryland cruiser :-)...Be well. 

[dbrown84]

1 hour ago, spanishguy1970 said:

Hello, Fellow Rockville Maryland cruiser :-)...Be well. 

DMV!!!

[julig22]

10 hours ago, haolenate said:

 

so, put on an IT hat.  Why spend half a million on a software program with a massive back-end and options, including algorithms, if they can just pay some geeks in the Far East $1000 to build a simple "send us your bid" SQL script on top of their res system.

Sadly, nothing in life is simple.  Its super duper complex.  Simple doesn't maximize profits.   

 

why should NCL give someone on a free casino cruise in a balcony an upgrade to Haven for $2000 when someone else in a balcony cabin paid $1800 for that cabin.... see my point?  And why bother upgrading Balcony cabins if they have 200 open on that ship - so in this case, they won't upgrade everyone, but only a portion. 

My retirement pension from a career in business/database development pays for my travels...

 

NCL outsources to Plusgrade for upgrades - so while the program could easily be as you describe, NCL isn't paying the cost of development.  My point is that certain information isn't necessary to achieve the same outcomes.

 

CAS is also not a NCL entity - so that "free casino cruise" isn't actually comped by NCL, although I have no idea on the actual arrangement. So maybe NCL got $2000 for the same cabin they sold for $1800 - who really knows.

 

Just how many actual ties do you think there would be during bidding?  All they really have to do is prioritize cabins - most desirable to least desirable, based on past booking information. Then go down the list of available cabins and start ranking bids for that cabin.  Ranking by price AND current cabin, awarding the bid where bid + downstream upgrades generate the highest $$. Not necessarily simple but can be done without including any passenger information.

 

And why bother upgrading Balcony cabins if they have 200 open on that ship - so in this case, they won't upgrade everyone, but only a portion.

Huh?? Every upgrade bid generates income, why wouldn't they upgrade anyone who asks if an upgrade is available?

[julig22]

11 minutes ago, haolenate said:

uh.  Not sure you understand Plusgrade.  NOTHING is outsourced.  Its a program.  You buy it and pay a licensing fee every year.  Ive actually overseen the integration of it with an airline, where its ran by 2 employees of said airline who work in Revenue Management.

 

So I guess we will have to professionally disagree here, and now I even question why I bothered to post on the *actual* inner workings of how the upgrade system works.  Just wanted to give some inside intel.

Of course there will be employees within an organization when there are licensed/outsourced applications. But since I have to go to a non-NCL site for bidding

https://upgrade.plusgrade.com/offer/NCL/ 

that fits my definition of outsourced. NCL supplies the data, pays in one form or another for the processing of that data.

But thanks for the insight.

 

[Nclgetawaymenhoney]

Algorithms is what this program is about in my opinion and to me it’s about maximum profit per bid based on the chain of bids that happen once one bid is awarded it opens up

a cabin for the next lower category and so on.  

[northbeachgirl]

On 10/6/2022 at 10:55 PM, haolenate said:

I actually know the person who is in charge of this 🙂

 

The bidding takes into account:

 

1. Your financial contribution to the sailing  (your total fare paid, extras you've paid, history of sailing with NCL and your average onboard spend)

2. Your Latitudes Status

3. #1 factored in to the ability for NCL to then either resell your cabin by sailing date, or accept a bid from someone who wants your cabin.

 

I had a friend who dropped nearly $1700 on his last cruise bid up to a spa balcony from a regular balcony for only $200 and he got it, whereas one of our friends, also on the cruise, 1st time NCL'er, bid $200 and did NOT get it.  

I appreciate  the  information you are sharing. We are hoping to get an upgrade on our upcoming Princess cruises, We have  a b2b2b booked and will be bidding on moving from an inside to a balcony, We may have to change rooms for each cruise but that is just one more thing to look forward to. 

Edited October 10, 2022 by northbeachgirl

[mscdivina2016]

23 hours ago, haolenate said:

 

 

So I guess we will have to professionally disagree here, and now I even question why I bothered to post on the *actual* inner workings of how the upgrade system works.  Just wanted to give some inside intel.

Please don't feel that way. I appreciate it very much for the extra insight.

 

So do the cruise lines actually purchase the program and download it onto their systems or are they buying access to a program which is operated centrally?

I ask because the web address is the same over multiple lines except for the last characters....\msc or \ncl.

 

I assume it would be like having an online store but it goes thru Amazon.

 

On the other hand, the program would need full access to a cruise lines data base as well as real time availability so it would also make sense it would be in house.