Move-up Tracker Algorithm

[sail2day]

I am writing this post after utilizing the Move-Up tracker app on numerous cruises. I have bid on at least 4 cruises in the past 2 years. All of the bids have failed. I have analyzed the successful bidders. There is no consistent protocol to the bids that have been successful. The only factor that all the bids have in common is that the initial bid for each was approximately 75-80% of the maximum amount permitted on the app. All of these bids were successful and notified weeks before the sailing (not days). The bids that were successful and notified days before the sailing were in what I call the mid-range category. That category comprises 50-70% of the maximum fee permitted per passenger.

 

All of the other bids were declined 2 days before the cruise. 

 

The algorithm that is used does take into account the Celebrity repeaters status of each cruiser. How much weight is given to that status is up for discussion. It is at least comforting to know that this factor does come into play. Obviously, the success of the bids is based on cabin availability for each category. 

 

If you are going to be successful in a bid on the tracker you need to bid at least 70% of the maximum amount. This is true unless the category is undersold. 

 

 

[NorthStarStateCruiser]

10 minutes ago, sail2day said:

I am writing this post after utilizing the Move-Up tracker app on numerous cruises. I have bid on at least 4 cruises in the past 2 years. All of the bids have failed. I have analyzed the successful bidders. There is no consistent protocol to the bids that have been successful. The only factor that all the bids have in common is that the initial bid for each was approximately 75-80% of the maximum amount permitted on the app. All of these bids were successful and notified weeks before the sailing (not days). The bids that were successful and notified days before the sailing were in what I call the mid-range category. That category comprises 50-70% of the maximum fee permitted per passenger.

 

All of the other bids were declined 2 days before the cruise. 

 

The algorithm that is used does take into account the Celebrity repeaters status of each cruiser. How much weight is given to that status is up for discussion. It is at least comforting to know that this factor does come into play. Obviously, the success of the bids is based on cabin availability for each category. 

 

If you are going to be successful in a bid on the tracker you need to bid at least 70% of the maximum amount. This is true unless the category is undersold. 

 

 

Where are you getting this data set from exactly?

[paulh84]

I don’t think that’s an accurate blanket statement. I’ve won 3-4 MoveUps that were at minimum or $10/$20 over minimum. The earliest I was ever notified was 30 days out for ann SV. I know I bid $10 over minimum on that one. Obviously the higher bidders have the best odds. 

[jelayne]

Move Up Tracker App?  Are you referring to the Move Up Tracker Sticky at the top of this board.  
 

If so, that only has info from passengers who are on Cruise Critic ( maybe 10% of cruisers) and who choose to post their bid and result. We have bid 5-6 times but I don’t post the bids or result.

[sail2day]

18 minutes ago, NorthStarStateCruiser said:

Where are you getting this data set from exactly?

I am getting this info from data posted on the CC website on the Move-Up tracker and my own personal experience.  The statement concerning the possibility of winning is just a statement. I am sure that there are cases of people who bid lower and based on availability are awarded an upgrade. If you cruise in the slow season the possibility of winning with a low bid is much greater.  I have bid several times (all at 20%- 30%) of the bid amount, and all have been declined. I always cruise during the summer peak season. Both Alaska and the Caribbean have been the cruises I have bid on. 

[CHEZMARYLOU]

We did not bid at the rate you are suggesting and got a move up to a PH from a RS on Edge. The only other bidding opportunity we had was from a RS to PH or Reflection Suite on Reflection and neither of these suites became available pre cruise.

[neverlaysup]

5 hours ago, sail2day said:

I am writing this post after utilizing the Move-Up tracker app on numerous cruises. I have bid on at least 4 cruises in the past 2 years. All of the bids have failed. I have analyzed the successful bidders. There is no consistent protocol to the bids that have been successful. The only factor that all the bids have in common is that the initial bid for each was approximately 75-80% of the maximum amount permitted on the app. All of these bids were successful and notified weeks before the sailing (not days). The bids that were successful and notified days before the sailing were in what I call the mid-range category. That category comprises 50-70% of the maximum fee permitted per passenger.

 

All of the other bids were declined 2 days before the cruise. 

 

The algorithm that is used does take into account the Celebrity repeaters status of each cruiser. How much weight is given to that status is up for discussion. It is at least comforting to know that this factor does come into play. Obviously, the success of the bids is based on cabin availability for each category. 

 

If you are going to be successful in a bid on the tracker you need to bid at least 70% of the maximum amount. This is true unless the category is undersold. 

 

 

Just because you bid on a cabin does not mean that they had available inventory. On my last cruise, I was able to bid on every suite category they had. When I checked the cruise cabins, it was 100% sold out. My only chance of winning anything was someone canceling in a timely enough fashion to allow a Move Up to win. We have sailed more than a dozen times in the last two years and have been successful on many bids using the absolute minimum bid (there were plenty of cabins available). It all really comes down to inventory as a starting point.

[Mark_K]

14 hours ago, sail2day said:

I am writing this post after utilizing the Move-Up tracker app on numerous cruises. I have bid on at least 4 cruises in the past 2 years. All of the bids have failed. I have analyzed the successful bidders. There is no consistent protocol to the bids that have been successful. The only factor that all the bids have in common is that the initial bid for each was approximately 75-80% of the maximum amount permitted on the app. All of these bids were successful and notified weeks before the sailing (not days). The bids that were successful and notified days before the sailing were in what I call the mid-range category. That category comprises 50-70% of the maximum fee permitted per passenger.

 

All of the other bids were declined 2 days before the cruise. 

 

The algorithm that is used does take into account the Celebrity repeaters status of each cruiser. How much weight is given to that status is up for discussion. It is at least comforting to know that this factor does come into play. Obviously, the success of the bids is based on cabin availability for each category. 

 

If you are going to be successful in a bid on the tracker you need to bid at least 70% of the maximum amount. This is true unless the category is undersold. 

 

 

The last I knew, for C&A members, the MoveUp program added something like 1-5% to your bid, depending on your level, and used that number when determining high bids.

 

 

[killaypirate]

Just had the rejection email for Silhouette Jul24 out of Southampton. One of my bids was for Aqua ( min £80 reduced to £40 max £300, bid £150). Interestingly doing a dummy booking now after the email, there are still 3 unsold Aqua rooms! So it appears Celebrity may also include an absolute minimum bid especially on a virtual sell-out cruise.

[phoenix_dream]

1 hour ago, killaypirate said:

Just had the rejection email for Silhouette Jul24 out of Southampton. One of my bids was for Aqua ( min £80 reduced to £40 max £300, bid £150). Interestingly doing a dummy booking now after the email, there are still 3 unsold Aqua rooms! So it appears Celebrity may also include an absolute minimum bid especially on a virtual sell-out cruise.

If that's true, that's frustrating and deceptive IMHO.  The minimum bid should be the minimum amount they will accept - at least in my perfect world.   I've bid multiple times, mostly from Aqua Class trying to get a suite.  Didn't bid minimum, but didn't go to 70 or 80% either.  Am also Zenith (they give a token amount extra to us - I think it is 5%, which is why I am mentioning it).  Have never won.  I think besides capacity in general, the type of cabin matters as well.  Suites almost always sell out, so on most cruises they are hard (albeit not impossible) to win bids for.  Easier to win bids from inside or OV to a balcony of some type.  On my upcoming cruise there was a fabulous price on insides and OV's.  They are fully booked.  AQ and CC have lots of openings.  I'm sure move-ups will fill a lot of those categories when all is said and done.

 

I also think if someone is doing analysis, they really need to disregard the first year or so after restart.  Ships were at much lower capacity so I don't think it's comparing apples to apples to look at what happened then versus now, when many cruises are all but sold out.  So many people reporting how lucky they were to get this higher level cabin and that, may find that it's an anomaly that will likely never happen again.

[jelayne]

3 hours ago, killaypirate said:

Just had the rejection email for Silhouette Jul24 out of Southampton. One of my bids was for Aqua ( min £80 reduced to £40 max £300, bid £150). Interestingly doing a dummy booking now after the email, there are still 3 unsold Aqua rooms! So it appears Celebrity may also include an absolute minimum bid especially on a virtual sell-out cruise.

Could be that there are more than 3 higher bids than yours that are still pending.  

[Jim_Iain]

On 7/21/2023 at 2:48 PM, sail2day said:

I am writing this post after utilizing the Move-Up tracker app on numerous cruises. I have bid on at least 4 cruises in the past 2 years. All of the bids have failed. I have analyzed the successful bidders. There is no consistent protocol to the bids that have been successful. The only factor that all the bids have in common is that the initial bid for each was approximately 75-80% of the maximum amount permitted on the app. All of these bids were successful and notified weeks before the sailing (not days). The bids that were successful and notified days before the sailing were in what I call the mid-range category. That category comprises 50-70% of the maximum fee permitted per passenger.

 

All of the other bids were declined 2 days before the cruise. 

 

The algorithm that is used does take into account the Celebrity repeaters status of each cruiser. How much weight is given to that status is up for discussion. It is at least comforting to know that this factor does come into play. Obviously, the success of the bids is based on cabin availability for each category. 

 

If you are going to be successful in a bid on the tracker you need to bid at least 70% of the maximum amount. This is true unless the category is undersold. 

 

 

The Multiplier for Status was posted when it was first implemented.  While you analysis is quite sound, I've won about 12 upgrades and have won them for as little as 40% of Maximum and have been Rejected with a full Maximum Bid with Zenith Status.  

 

Looking to take your vacation to the next level? You’re in luck. MoveUp allows you to bid on a stateroom upgrade after you’ve purchased your cruise. As a valued Captain’s Club member your bid gets a bonus boost based on your tier. So, you get more value than what you bid. Classic members get an extra 1% multiplier, Select members get a 2% multiplier, Elite members get a 3% multiplier, Elite Plus members get a 4% multiplier, and Zenith members get a 5% multiplier. 

[Otton60]

Hi, I bid minimum amount May 11th for a 10 day cruise on The Constellation for May 15th. We moved from Aqua to a sky suite. My bid was accepted the 11th. I would do it again but wait till the end as price kept dropping.

[Shiba_Lover]

I don't think you (or anyone) would ever have the proper data to do a real analysis.  I suspect it takes into account (in no particular order)....

 

1.  What the bidder actually paid for the cabin

2.  What the bidder has bid

3.  Bidder's loyalty status

4.  Profit to Celebrity of the bid

5.  Availability of cabins in relation to bid (if there are 10 aqua cabins vs 1 aqua cabin, maybe a lower bid is more likely to be accepted)

6  Re-shuffling of all the cabins to actually execute the move ups (aligned with the availability)  (ie - if people move from aqua to sky suite, then it can move concierge to aqua and so on)

 

Or maybe they just assign people random numbers and draw the lucky number.  Who knows????

 

I don't think anyone would ever have all of this for all the bidders.  And we don't even know what they actually consider when deciding how to award the move ups.

[mcatmcat]

I won, let’s say 99% of the time. The only time that I didn’t win was bc I asked for a grand suite. But, my experience is based with royal. I never bid in x because the minimum is super high 

 

this is what I do, again this is what I do with rcl  I always book interior and bid for a balcony n suites. I only place the minimum bid and move the needle just a little bit to bid for the minimum plus 20$. That’s all. 
 

I end up in balcony most of the time and only a few junio suites

btw I’m close to be diamond plus 

 

 

[bcooney91]

On 7/21/2023 at 4:48 PM, sail2day said:

I am writing this post after utilizing the Move-Up tracker app on numerous cruises. I have bid on at least 4 cruises in the past 2 years. All of the bids have failed. I have analyzed the successful bidders. There is no consistent protocol to the bids that have been successful. The only factor that all the bids have in common is that the initial bid for each was approximately 75-80% of the maximum amount permitted on the app. All of these bids were successful and notified weeks before the sailing (not days). The bids that were successful and notified days before the sailing were in what I call the mid-range category. That category comprises 50-70% of the maximum fee permitted per passenger.

 

All of the other bids were declined 2 days before the cruise. 

 

The algorithm that is used does take into account the Celebrity repeaters status of each cruiser. How much weight is given to that status is up for discussion. It is at least comforting to know that this factor does come into play. Obviously, the success of the bids is based on cabin availability for each category. 

 

If you are going to be successful in a bid on the tracker you need to bid at least 70% of the maximum amount. This is true unless the category is undersold. 

 

 

Sorry to inform you but you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. 

The real algorithm is much much much more complicated but the goal is simple, for Celebrity/RC to make as much money as humanly possible. I know this because I spoke to the person who works for the team that manages the program. They start with unbooked cabins and look at what bids are submitted for them. Then they look at what cabins the bidders are in and if they approve those bids then the bidders cabins become available and what bids are on their cabins and who bid for them and so on and so forth. So it's a tiered system and they approve based on how much money they can profit. If the ship has a lot of unsold rooms they'll start the process early which is why some cruises start getting approvals weeks in advance. If the ship is pretty well sold out they'll wait until a week before or even a day or two before. They also re-evaluate as the sail date gets closer due to cancellations, and then no-shows the final day.

If it comes down to a tie and someone bid the same amount then it's whoever submitted the bid first, if they bid on the same day in the same hour then I believe it does finally default to loyalty, but it's like the last decision make in a tie breaker. I've been on 11 cruises and been eligible to bid on 8 of them I believe. I've won three. Two of the three were minimum bids. I rarely bid over minimum. Obviously if you bid more you have a higher chance, but just because you bid higher than someone else doesn't mean you're going to win. If you're booked cabin isn't desirable (have high bids on it) but someone else's does and they can accept a higher bid to replace their cabin then they might win. It's a chain effect and all based on profit. That's why it's impossible for anyone outside of the company to know/track because you have no idea who bid how much and what cabin they were in and what bids are on their cabin, etc. But one thing is for sure, the program is not meant to be a benefit for you, it's meant to be a profit maker for the company that they sell/market as a benefit to you. And the only fairness in it is if you're going to make the company a bigger profit.

[bcooney91]

On 7/21/2023 at 10:49 PM, neverlaysup said:

Just because you bid on a cabin does not mean that they had available inventory. On my last cruise, I was able to bid on every suite category they had. When I checked the cruise cabins, it was 100% sold out. My only chance of winning anything was someone canceling in a timely enough fashion to allow a Move Up to win. We have sailed more than a dozen times in the last two years and have been successful on many bids using the absolute minimum bid (there were plenty of cabins available). It all really comes down to inventory as a starting point.

yupp, that's because anyone in any cabin can cancel at the last minute, so they're going to keep bids open to make as much money as possible if someone cancel.