Carnival Stock

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, PayneAS said:

I bought my CCL at like $9 and they are/were at $16 when I last looked a couple of days ago so it making a profit for me. Actually if you look at the last 12 mo, they are still up.

Making money on a trade is NOT the same as ccl as a company making a profit. I'm hoping you actually do know the difference. If ccl was making a profit they would have a pe. A price earnings multiple. I live off my stocks .. and have invested for over 50 years. .. it's important to know what a pe is or a peg. 

 

I'd like carnival to come out with when it will turn a profit. Yes keep paying off that debt. I'm still holding quite a bit of ccl. I have faith long term but I do know what it means for a stock to turn a profit vs loss. If you dont stick to small amounts and do some studying. CNBC will certainly be covering rcl when they report. Listen in if you are home. Maybe your comment was meant as humor. I make my living doing this. 

[Chip1]

6 hours ago, MEUB1112 said:

Unless the account is set up like mine with Edward Jones, any dividends are reinvested.

Even if the dividends are reinvested, you will still receive a 1099-DIV if they are held in a nonretirement account.

[tidecat]

8 hours ago, firefly333 said:

I'd like carnival to come out with when it will turn a profit.

Carnival's guidance is a loss for the first quarter of FY 2024, but a profit of $0.93/share for the full year. You have to scroll pretty far down, but it is in this press release:

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/carnival-corporation--plc-reports-record-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-revenues-with-continued-strong-bookings-and-earnings-momentum-302020638.html

 

Not sure what it will take for the company to turn a profit in all four quarters again, but historically the first quarter's performance is typically the weakest.

 

Most of the finance sites typically don't display a negative P/E, but on a rolling 12-month basis that should go positive again after Q1 of 2024 if earnings meet guidance. There would be a smaller loss from Q1 of 2024 replacing the loss from Q1 of 2023.

[tidecat]

I should also point out that there will be some dilution of the stock in 2024. There are some convertible notes coming due this year that will add about 10% to the number of shares outstanding.

[MEUB1112]

17 hours ago, Chip1 said:

Even if the dividends are reinvested, you will still receive a 1099-DIV if they are held in a nonretirement account.

Thanks for the info, evidently, I haven't earned dividends 😆 

[tidecat]

2 hours ago, MEUB1112 said:

Thanks for the info, evidently, I haven't earned dividends 😆 

Carnival's last dividend was paid on March 13, 2020.

[BlerkOne]

16 hours ago, tidecat said:

 

 

Not sure what it will take for the company to turn a profit in all four quarters again, but historically the first quarter's performance is typically the weakest.

 

 

Carnival paid 6 billion toward debt. Do you think they could have stretched that out so they could have shown a phony profit?

 

Other cruise lines are also in debt. Perhaps they chose to post the illusion of a profit.

[RE Guru]

For those of you who are following my question.  I decided to just buy 100 shares and apply for OBC (I’m on 6 carnival cruises all together). They denied me the OBC because my cruise was discounted enough.  Looks like I wasted not only time and energy but my emotional investment into this fruitless venture.  Now, if I sell the stock, it would be at a loss

[Old Fart Cruisers]

1 hour ago, RE Guru said:

For those of you who are following my question.  I decided to just buy 100 shares and apply for OBC (I’m on 6 carnival cruises all together). They denied me the OBC because my cruise was discounted enough.  Looks like I wasted not only time and energy but my emotional investment into this fruitless venture.  Now, if I sell the stock, it would be at a loss

 

You could try to resubmit the claims for OBC individually.  It's possible one or two of your 6 cruises are discounted more than others causing the rejection and the person didn't bother checking all booking numbers.  I have had casino offers rejected, then accepted after I resubmitted it a week later for the same booking number.   Good luck. 

[tidecat]

6 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Carnival paid 6 billion toward debt. Do you think they could have stretched that out so they could have shown a phony profit?

 

Other cruise lines are also in debt. Perhaps they chose to post the illusion of a profit.

Repayment of debt does not factor into profit/loss, aside from reducing interest expense in future periods. Stretching out debt may keep cash available for other activities like building new ships, but raises interest expense in future periods which in turn reduces profit.

 

Because depreciation is such a large expense for any cruise operator, especially Carnival, it has allowed Carnival to be cash flow positive even without being profitable. Depreciation is a decline in value on assets purchased in prior periods; for Carnival this is around $2 billion per year, and it goes up every time a ship enters service.

 

The flip side is that buying a new ship doesn't affect profit/loss either (aside from raising depreciation once it enter service), but does affect cash flow.

 

You also have things that don't run through the income statement at all, like the escrow funds credit card processors required Carnival to have during the shutdown. That was around $1 billion of cash that was tied up, and that was expected to be released by February 2024.

 

Cruise lines have always had seasonality in their business; fares in North America and Europe tend to be higher in the summer months than they are in the winter. Revenue is recognized only when a cruise is completed (or each day of the cruise for longer sailings), not when the customer pays. Increasing customer deposits is another thing that can help cash flow be higher than profit.

[firefly333]

10 hours ago, RE Guru said:

For those of you who are following my question.  I decided to just buy 100 shares and apply for OBC (I’m on 6 carnival cruises all together). They denied me the OBC because my cruise was discounted enough.  Looks like I wasted not only time and energy but my emotional investment into this fruitless venture.  Now, if I sell the stock, it would be at a loss

Hang in there. It's going to come back. Imo. 

 

I think sometime Thursday rcl has earnings and always good. People seem to love these new mega ships. It probably will help the rest of the cruiselines with a bump.

 

I'd buy more ccl if I wasnt already holding so much. I have faith. I've read a few articles which seem like naive non cruisers comparing 5 years? Not a mention of the cruiselines being shut down. Sometimes you just have to have faith those talking heads are just looking at charts and have 0 information like cruisers do. 

[BlerkOne]

7 hours ago, tidecat said:

Repayment of debt does not factor into profit/loss, aside from reducing interest expense in future periods.

In other words, it does.

 

7 hours ago, tidecat said:

Because depreciation is such a large expense for any cruise operator, especially Carnival, it has allowed Carnival to be cash flow positive even without being profitable. Depreciation is a decline in value on assets purchased in prior periods; for Carnival this is around $2 billion per year, and it goes up every time a ship enters service.

 

 

Depreciation can be used to manipulate earnings, as well.

[tidecat]

9 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

In other words, it does.

 

Depreciation can be used to manipulate earnings, as well.

That's kind of hard for a publicly traded company. Carnival's depreciation policy is stated in the notes to their financial statements. That can be changed, but there are all sorts of rules that go into that, even without taking taxes into consideration (taxes aren't really a thing for a Panamian-domiciled company anyway). If Carnival made such a change, there are disclosure requiremnts.

 

If Carnival didn't depreciate it's ships fast enough, it would be taking large losses when ships are sold for scrap or to another operator. If Carnival depreciated its ships too quickly, earnings would look worse, and the variance between cash flow and earnings would be even larger.

[BlerkOne]

1 minute ago, tidecat said:

That's kind of hard for a publicly traded company. Carnival's depreciation policy is stated in the notes to their financial statements. That can be changed, but there are all sorts of rules that go into that, even without taking taxes into consideration (taxes aren't really a thing for a Panamian-domiciled company anyway). If Carnival made such a change, there are disclosure requiremnts.

 

If Carnival didn't depreciate it's ships fast enough, it would be taking large losses when ships are sold for scrap or to another operator. If Carnival depreciated its ships too quickly, earnings would look worse, and the variance between cash flow and earnings would be even larger.

Carnival tends to hold onto ships for a longtime, so can't/shouldn't depreciation be adjusted to reflect?

 

Are Carnival Corporation and Carnival Plc financial statements identical?

[tidecat]

42 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Carnival tends to hold onto ships for a longtime, so can't/shouldn't depreciation be adjusted to reflect?

 

Are Carnival Corporation and Carnival Plc financial statements identical?

Carnival depreciates 85% of its ships using the straight line method over 30 years. So the depreciation on Jubilee for example is $950 million × .85 ÷ 30 for $26,916,667 per year. In December 2053 her book value will only be $142.5 million. If we have 3% average inflation between 2023 and 2053 that would only be $58.7 million in 2023 dollars.

 

Gains and losses on ship sales are disclosed separately in the financial statements, although there isn't always activity for that every quarter.

 

Carnival Corporation and Carnival PLC report one set of financial statements. 

[firefly333]

As I predicted, rcl earnings would give the sector a bump. Anyone buy ahead of rcl earnings? 

 

Ccl 17.11 so far this morning, hopefully keeps going.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCL?p=CCL&.tsrc=fin-srch

 

Everyone knew rcl would again blow earnings out of the water. .. sector will be up today. 

 

Premarket

[MadManOfBethesda]

On 1/28/2024 at 9:33 PM, ano said:

If dividends were less than $10 a year total, the IRS does not require that you report it. 

That's not true. While institutions are not required to provide you with a 1099 form if the annual amount paid is under $10, the income itself is still taxable to the individual and required to be included as income on your 1040. In fact, everything from $1 and above (technically, all the way down to 50 cents and then rounded up) is required to be reported as income when filing your taxes. 

[john91498]

On 1/29/2024 at 9:44 PM, RE Guru said:

For those of you who are following my question.  I decided to just buy 100 shares and apply for OBC (I’m on 6 carnival cruises all together). They denied me the OBC because my cruise was discounted enough.  Looks like I wasted not only time and energy but my emotional investment into this fruitless venture.  Now, if I sell the stock, it would be at a loss

 

It's only a loss if you sell. I've bought some stinkers over the decades and have held on hoping they would come back. Some have and some have not.

 

You can always hold them until you sell some of your winners to offset the tax burden.

[BlerkOne]

2 hours ago, MadManOfBethesda said:

That's not true. While institutions are not required to provide you with a 1099 form if the annual amount paid is under $10, the income itself is still taxable to the individual and required to be included as income on your 1040. In fact, everything from $1 and above (technically, all the way down to 50 cents and then rounded up) is required to be reported as income when filing your taxes. 

You are required to obey the speed limit, but...

[firefly333]

CNBC interviewed rcl ceo and was asked about suez canal. It was mentioned carnival warned it would affect earnings. Darn. Rcl said they onky have a few smaller ships affected ( including the 9 month world tour I have friends on). 

 

Well that subject didnt go over well with traders. I'm still bullish long term. Touchy subject.

Edited February 2 by firefly333

[MaisonRose]

On 1/30/2024 at 11:30 AM, firefly333 said:

Hang in there. It's going to come back. Imo. 

 

I think sometime Thursday rcl has earnings and always good. People seem to love these new mega ships. It probably will help the rest of the cruiselines with a bump.

 

I'd buy more ccl if I wasnt already holding so much. I have faith. I've read a few articles which seem like naive non cruisers comparing 5 years? Not a mention of the cruiselines being shut down. Sometimes you just have to have faith those talking heads are just looking at charts and have 0 information like cruisers do. 

I paid over $50 a share, I’ll sell them to you half price 🤓  seriously I’m pleased with the OBC that I’ve gotten but it sure was bad timing. It’s time to buy stock imho.

I didn’t know that a request for OBC could be turned down.

Susan