Australia $ Value, Economic Direction?

[The_Big_M]

Kevin Rudd has also announced that he would not form government with minor parties. It seems that both leaders are trying to get the voters to make a clear choice between the two major parties.

 

Seems pretty stupid to me. Say we get 47 one way, 47 another and the balance filled up with independents/greens.

 

Now both leaders says they won't form any further coalitions. So we basically don't have a government as neither have a majority to form government.

 

What would happen then is they'd either have to have another election, or someone would break their word, and we wouldn't have a government in the meantime!

 

Any of those outcomes is even more stupid.

 

I know what they want to achieve, but it's just bullying tactics from both to stop the electorate from choosing a candidate of their choice, if they're not from one of the major parties. So much for democracy eh.

[Aus Traveller]

Seems pretty stupid to me. Say we get 47 one way, 47 another and the balance filled up with independents/greens.

 

Now both leaders says they won't form any further coalitions. So we basically don't have a government as neither have a majority to form government.

 

What would happen then is they'd either have to have another election, or someone would break their word, and we wouldn't have a government in the meantime!

 

Any of those outcomes is even more stupid.

 

I know what they want to achieve, but it's just bullying tactics from both to stop the electorate from choosing a candidate of their choice, if they're not from one of the major parties. So much for democracy eh.

If it is a hung parliament, I believe one side (and although I don't bet I would place a bet on this one;)) will form a government and justify it by "saving the country another election" and "the cost of another election".

[The_Big_M]

If it is a hung parliament, I believe one side (and although I don't bet I would place a bet on this one;))

 

Well, they were both keen to form one last time, and both have made a stupid promise this time, so are in the same boat for me. And both break promises when they feel like it!

 

It's not about good governance, it's about making their job easy, and bullying the electorate.

[bobhsv]

Well, they were both keen to form one last time, and both have made a stupid promise this time, so are in the same boat for me. And both break promises when they feel like it!

 

It's not about good governance, it's about making their job easy, and bullying the electorate.

 

You neglected to mention the pay rises they give themselves regularly, which apparently has nothing to do with our growing national debt:D

[bazzaw]

 

I know what they want to achieve, but it's just bullying tactics from both to stop the electorate from choosing a candidate of their choice, if they're not from one of the major parties. .

 

RUBBISH!! Anybody can still CHOOSE a candidate of their choice -- that is exactly what Democracy is all about. It's just that if your first vote is for the Greens Party, it will be wasted because they do not garner enough support in the community to be elected in their own right ( bit like the Sex Party or the Raving Loonies Party) . For Greens voters -- what is important is -- who is your second preference going to be? -- that is the only thing that has any relevance for them .

 

Barry

Edited August 14, 2013 by bazzaw

[MMDown Under]

RUBBISH!! Anybody can still CHOOSE a candidate of their choice -- that is exactly what Democracy is all about. It's just that if your first vote is for the Greens Party, it will be wasted because they do not garner enough support in the community to be elected in their own right ( bit like the Sex Party or the Raving Loonies Party) . For Greens voters -- what is important is -- who is your second preference going to be? -- that is the only thing that has any relevance for them .

 

Barry

 

Also of importance for some is that the party voted for gets the funding per vote, not the second preference.

[MicCanberra]

$AUD is 91.27 this morning, holding steady.:D

[jennyau]

$AUD is 91.27 this morning, holding steady.:D

 

:D

 

Sent from my GT-I9100T using Forums mobile app

[The_Big_M]

RUBBISH!! Anybody can still CHOOSE a candidate of their choice -- that is exactly what Democracy is all about. It's just that if your first vote is for the Greens Party, it will be wasted because they do not garner enough support in the community to be elected in their own right ( bit like the Sex Party or the Raving Loonies Party) . For Greens voters -- what is important is -- who is your second preference going to be? -- that is the only thing that has any relevance for them .

 

No, it's not rubbish - otherwise both parties wouldn't have resorted to that tactic!

 

The issue is some members HAVE gained enough to be elected in their own right. The major parties don't like that, so are both trying to bully the voters to choose one of them.

[MicCanberra]

$AUD is 91.29 this morning, still holding steady.

[TLCOhio]

$AUD is 91.29 this morning, still holding steady.

 

As of this morning from the Wall Street Journal, the Aussie dollar is at $.9190. For the past week or so, it has been bouncing around 90-92 cents. Been following with interest your election battles down under. You are now just a little less than three weeks from the Australia national elections to decide your next Prime Minister. Decision day will be on Saturday, September 7. As noted below, the target timing of November on potentially re-setting your interest rates will be another key factor as to how the economies in both Australia and China are responding and moving. Add up those future factors and you will see more on the level of the Aussie dollar for when we are there in January 2014 for our cruise. Lots of variables and time to evolve/shift!!

 

From the NewsCorp Courier Mail newspaper yesterday morning in Brisbane, Australia, they have this headline: "Aussie dollar set to freefall to as low as US80 cents".

 

Here are some of the highlights from this analysis by their writer: "The Australian dollar has slumped 12 per cent this year and is heading for its worst performance in more than two decades. Stephen Miller, a money manager at BlackRock, estimates the Aussie will fall toward US80¢ over the next nine months as China slows and the US economy recovers. 'I suspect the RBA can cut again in November if they don't get the requisite transition from growth led by mining-sector investment to other parts of the economy,' Mr Miller said. Australia's dollar is the biggest loser among major currencies this year, tumbling 9.8 per cent against a basket of nine peers including the euro, yen and pound, according to Bloomberg data. It's headed for its biggest annual decline based on those indexes since it tumbled 11 per cent in 1990. A recent survey of analysts by Bloomberg found the median estimate for the Aussie was for it to finish the year at US89¢. Pimco money manager Adam Bowe said the biggest global headwind for Australia is the current slowdown in Chinese growth. 'The currency's recent fall is definitely a welcome relief for many sectors of the economy, but it's still elevated and at a level that's restraining activity, not stimulating activity,' Mr Bowe said."

 

Full story at:

http://www.news.com.au/national-news/queensland/aussie-dollar-set-to-freefall-to-as-low-as-us80-cents/story-fnii5v6w-1226698621347

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Celebrity Solstice Visual Highlights? From our June 7-19, 2011, Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in France, Italy, Kotor and Dubrovnik, I have pull together a number of wonderful visuals of the Solstice, its features, food, entertainment, options, etc. We are now at over 9,661 views for this shorter version of my larger full review of that cruise and all of the port pictures/details. Check these postings and added info at:

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1803477

[icat2000]

The Chinese economy hasn't slowed down though. There was indicators that it had but then the last data that came out of the country suggested it hadn't that's why the Australian dollar rebounded up near 92 cents week or so back and has stayed that way.

 

China is really important for Australian as they buy a lot of our ore.

Edited August 18, 2013 by icat2000

[bazzaw]

The Chinese economy hasn't slowed down though. There was indicators that it had but then the last data that came out of the country suggested it hadn't that's why the Australian dollar rebounded up near 92 cents week or so back and has stayed that way.

 

China is really important for Australian as they buy a lot of our ore.

 

Our PM has been publicly saying that the Chinese "boom" is over. My understanding is that the Chinese economy is still growing at a rate of 7% - and last time I looked still has a population of around 1000 million people, many of whom are becoming what we would call "middle income" (not even thinking about their approx one million Millionaires.)

 

The currency/Stock markets will always come up with reasons as to why they rise and fall -- but the reality is that these markets only make any money when they are rising or falling -- there is no money to make in a non-moving stable market :)

 

PM Rudd will also come up with reasons as to why the current Government should be re-elected.

[The_Big_M]

Pimco money manager Adam Bowe said the biggest global headwind for Australia is the current slowdown in Chinese growth. 'The currency's recent fall is definitely a welcome relief for many sectors of the economy, but it's still elevated and at a level that's restraining activity, not stimulating activity,' Mr Bowe said."

 

The thing is this is a never ending argument for industry, both with the currency and interest rates. At 50c it could go lower "to improve competitiveness". At 1% it could still go lower "to improve competitiveness."

 

Industry always want lower interest rates and lower currencies. Never a surprise there. Doesn't mean it's true or justified though.

[MicCanberra]

The AUD had drooped to $0.897 this morning but has rebounded to $0.901:D

[The_Big_M]

Interesting how as one party looks more like to win, the dollar keeps dropping... ;-)

[TLCOhio]

Interesting how as one party looks more like to win, the dollar keeps dropping... ;-)

 

Yes, it is hard to understand ALL of these twists and turns with the various economic factors in many countries. Within the past two hours, from the NewsCorp newspapers in Australia, they have this headline: "Australian dollar and stockmarket both down as investors get nervous". As of this morning, the Wall Street Journal has the Aussie dollar at: $0.8988. I have posted this info on our roll call. NewsCorp is a sister company to the Wall Street Journal and their reporting has been along these lines.

 

Here are these story highlights: "THE Australian dollar has dived back below US90c as the stock market took a further tumble, bringing to more than $200 billion the recent run of losses, despite signs the US economic recovery is gathering strength. The mixed signals from the US Federal Reserve about when it will begin slowing its pumping of money into the global economy has sparked confusion across the globe as investors, after more than three years, move to wean themselves off cheap money. The Fed's pumping of around $US85 billion a month through bond purchases has been widely credited with the stock market rise of the past 12 months. Fears of its tapering saw the Australian market finish in the red yesterday for the sixth time out of the last seven sessions. The Australian dollar also dropped to a two-week low of US89.3c before recovering some ground in late trading after private sectors data showed Chinese manufacturing growth is on the rise. This comes after months of slowing activity that had sparked concerns the world's second biggest economy may have been heading for a hard landing. The major uncertainty facing global investors is the US Fed's reduction in bond buying and this has seen stocks fluctuate widely in recent months on little concrete information. The release of the minutes from the Fed's monthly meeting shows officials were 'comfortable' with the plan to scale back the economic stimulus that has seen the central bank buy $US85 billion a month in government bonds and mortgage securities to boost confidence."

 

World economics?? Clear as mud??

 

Full story at:

http://www.news.com.au/national-news/australian-dollar-and-stockmarket-both-down-as-investors-get-nervous/story-fncynjr2-1226702383606

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Celebrity Solstice Visual Highlights? From our June 7-19, 2011, Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in France, Italy, Kotor and Dubrovnik, I have pull together a number of wonderful visuals of the Solstice, its features, food, entertainment, options, etc. We are now at over 9,770 views for this shorter version of my larger full review of that cruise and all of the port pictures/details. Check these postings and added info at:

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1803477

[MicCanberra]

Still holding at $0.901:D

I think it is more to do with the US economy causing movement than Australian politics.

Edited August 22, 2013 by MicCanberra

[mr walker]

Still holding at $0.901:D

I think it is more to do with the US economy causing movement than Australian politics.

 

I agree, I don't know that local politics are having such an impact. Our business is very sensitive to Fx as we buy everything in US$ & mostly sell in $A. What we have seen was a quite sharp drop last month from around 1.05 to around 0.90 & since then cycling around 90c, including during the election campaign, so that's suggests little impact from Canberra. Perhaps the dealers have already factored in the govt post Sept 7, a little like appeared to happen with the last interest rate cut.

 

Of course if I knew what was going to happen I could make some $'s :D

[MicCanberra]

I agree, I don't know that local politics are having such an impact. Our business is very sensitive to Fx as we buy everything in US$ & mostly sell in $A. What we have seen was a quite sharp drop last month from around 1.05 to around 0.90 & since then cycling around 90c, including during the election campaign, so that's suggests little impact from Canberra. Perhaps the dealers have already factored in the govt post Sept 7, a little like appeared to happen with the last interest rate cut.

 

Of course if I knew what was going to happen I could make some $'s :D

Yes, it wouldn't be the first time canberra has been ineffectual.:D

I wish I knew some of what was coming, I certainly wouldn't need this work caper.:p

[MicCanberra]

Holding on at $0.903:D

[TLCOhio]

I wish I knew some of what was coming, I certainly wouldn't need this work caper.:p

 

YES! We would like to be able to predict and know those future currency values. Would help fund more cruises and travel.

 

Just checked the Wall Street Journal tonight and they have the Aussie dollar at $0.9020. You and others have been wonderful with the great info and insights. Appreciate the great help. Been learning lots, including watching your election go into the home stretch. The Aussie newspapers seem to be saying things are clearly leaning and heading in one main direction. Less than two week till Sept. 7. For us, it's just 148 days till boarding. But, who's counting?

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

For details and visuals, etc., from our July 1-16, 2010, Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise experience from Copenhagen on the Silver Cloud, check out this posting. This posting is now at 116,895 views.

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

[MicCanberra]

YES! We would like to be able to predict and know those future currency values. Would help fund more cruises and travel.

 

Just checked the Wall Street Journal tonight and they have the Aussie dollar at $0.9020. You and others have been wonderful with the great info and insights. Appreciate the great help. Been learning lots, including watching your election go into the home stretch. The Aussie newspapers seem to be saying things are clearly leaning and heading in one main direction. Less than two week till Sept. 7. For us, it's just 148 days till boarding. But, who's counting?

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Anytime, that is what CC is for, discuss topics with fellow cruisers.:D

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, they have this headline: "Australian Opposition Ahead in Polls, But Its Leader Isn't So Popular" with this subhead: "Conservative Tony Abbott Chafes Voters, Though Marshalls His Coalition Toward Power". Why is this important for anybody cruising there? As I have mentioned earlier, it is, indirectly, about your challenged economy and the future value of their Aussie dollar. Personally, I always to do my "homework" on a country's history, culture, politics, economy, etc. That is part of the learning experience for me. Others could care less. Each to their own for what "floats their boat"!! All of us have varied interests. Appreciate the many comments on this thread. It has been very, very interesting and informative.

 

Here are some more of the WSJ story/analysis highlights that gives some sense for what this current election is all about: "With the ruling Labor party divided and unable to revive a fading economy, Australia appears ready to return a conservative government to power for the first time in six years. But as the opposition has struck a major chord with prospective voters, its coalition leader, Tony Abbott, apparently hasn't. 'He's still unpopular; that's the paradox,' said Zareh Ghazarian, a Melbourne-based political analyst at Monash University. 'It highlights how, in the Australia system, we're looking at the parties rather than the people leading them.' With the economy decelerating as a longtime mining boom cools, the tough-talking Mr. Abbott heads into the Sept. 7 election with a tailwind. His Liberal National right-leaning coalition has pulled clear of center-left Labor in opinion polls, after both sides were briefly tied as recently as three weeks ago. The 55-year-old Oxford University graduate now looks poised to replace Labor's recently returned leader Kevin Rudd as prime minister. Mr. Abbott's coalition's rise has been shouldered by growing disenchantment with Labor's governance, amid the ruling party's bitter infighting, unpopular policies and a clutch of broken promises. One unfulfilled commitment by Labor—to return the budget to surplus by mid-2013—badly dented the left's credibility in running the economy. But even as polls point to a victory for the Liberal Nationals, public opinion about Mr. Abbott continues to lag behind Mr. Rudd's. According to a recent Newspoll survey, Mr. Abbott's Liberal Nationals hold a 53%-47% lead over Labor. But when asked who would make the better prime minister, only 40% mentioned Mr. Abbott, while 44% pointed to Mr. Rudd."

 

Here is more on the party leader who might become Prime Minister: "Abbott was a health minister in the previous conservative government. Abbott has sought to appeal to voters by mixing populism with traditional conservative values. The ex-boxer who once trained as a Catholic priest has run a disciplined election campaign focused on three issues routinely topping voter concerns in opinion polls: the economy, a carbon tax and asylum seekers. 'The Australian economy has some fundamental strengths, but the current government has managed to squander many of the things it inherited,' Mr. Abbott said Tuesday in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. Rudd has said the opposition's planned spending cuts would escalate job losses and run the risk of creating the nation's first recession in more than two decades. Abbott contrasted his economic views with those of Rudd, striking an upbeat tone and challenging the notion that the nation's long resources boom has come to an end. 'This idea that the mining boom is over is wrong,' he said. 'The prices we're getting for our minerals are still very high by historical standards, and production is going up and up all the time.' On foreign policy, there is little difference between the two contenders, but Labor has said the opposition's stand against asylum seekers and its wariness toward foreign, state-backed investment risks jeopardizing Australia's deepening ties with countries such as China and Indonesia. To some people, Abbott is the quintessential Australian male due to his love of surfing, cycling and the outdoors. Born in London, in the U.K., Abbott studied at the University of Sydney and won a Rhodes scholarship that sent him to Oxford. The real breakthrough for Abbott came in 2010, when Rudd pledged to introduce a tax on 'super' profits of mining companies, a move that riled the country's powerful resources industry."

 

Lots more details and background in the full story. To my eye and from I have read in the major Aussie newspaper, this seems to be a decent summary on the battle going on there. Hopefully this sampling gives a little flavor for what is happening in the next ten days in Australia before the Sept. 7 election. I am a regular subscriber to major newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal and New York Times. Not sure how getting this story through their website will work for others. Will follow-up in September to learn how things are moving on their economy down under after the election. Don't want to touch off a political debate here. That's a no-no on these boards. Hopefully this view from a visiting reporting team is of interest.

 

Full story at:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323407104579038632378881654.html?mod=WSJ_LatestHeadlines

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Celebrity Solstice Visual Highlights? From our June 7-19, 2011, Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in France, Italy, Kotor and Dubrovnik, I have pull together a number of wonderful visuals of the Solstice, its features, food, entertainment, options, etc. We are now at over 9,896 views for this shorter version of my larger full review of that cruise and all of the port pictures/details. Check these postings and added info at:

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1803477

[bazzaw]

Terry

 

I have always noticed that you Americans say "Could care less" -- when we say "couldn't care less". I have always wondered why you say that. Being pedantic - but "could care less" surely means that you do care somewhat but "could care less".. whereas our "couldn't care less" means exactly that.

 

So I couldn't care less what the polls are saying now - I have bought the popcorn for Saturday night next week and others in the street are bringing the beer and wine. They won't bring too much though because it is going to be an early night this time.

 

Barry