How Close to Sailing are Prices at their Lowest?

[NoOtherVacay]

My husband and I are looking into a couple cruises that leave the last weekend in February. We haven't been able to book before now and I have noticed the prices subtly going up over the last few months. I am wondering if there is a chance they will go down at all between now and the sail date? Or should we book before they go up any more?

 

 

 

TY in advance!

[Budget Queen]

The "lowest" prices isn't known until hindsight. IF you are very flexible, with ships and dates, you should be able to snag a last minute discount, if going out of Fll or Mia. IF you are less flexible, and you decide to "wait", then you also need to be accepting of prices going up.

[esdoorn]

We booked our March 28th sailing on the Sensation for a 5-day cruise out of Miami in May 2015. As of now, the price is $200.00 more per person if you booked now which is 85 days out.

[reefgeek83]

From what I've found, and heard I believe, it depends on the sailing. If cabins aren't selling they'll start discounting them. Once they start selling the increase prices. If a ship is almost full you're less likely to get a price reduction.

My last cruise it went down several times, but the cruise I'm headed on next in a few weeks is almost sold out and prices have only gone up. I check most every day to see if they ever go down and so far no. ☹️

[NoOtherVacay]

Thank you for your replies. I feel like I had read about fare trends and how they go up or down leading up to sailings. It does make sense though, that it would be based on how well the staterooms are selling.

 

Thanks again!

[Spaniel Lover]

A few years ago, the prices went down over time... and the longer you held out, the lower the price for the cruise, as long as there were still cabins available.

 

However, things have changed. I think one of the factors was that with Early Saver, Carnival ended up having to offer a lot of onboard credits to cover the difference in the prices. Also, I think they eventually realized that it was pissing off their customers to see lower prices after they booked their cruises. And it was probably wasting a lot of time for their customer service reps to have to deal with all those onboard credits when the prices dropped. Also, by training your customers that prices will always drop, it was encouraging people to delay booking their cruises. It's in Carnival's best interest to actually encourage just the opposite. It seems they finally figured that out.

 

For whatever reasons, the current situation seems to be that the EARLIER you book, the lower the price will be. So, if you're looking for the best prices, it seems like your best strategy at this point in time is to book early.

[NoOtherVacay]

A few years ago, the prices went down over time... and the longer you held out, the lower the price for the cruise, as long as there were still cabins available.

 

However, things have changed. I think one of the factors was that with Early Saver, Carnival ended up having to offer a lot of onboard credits to cover the difference in the prices. Also, I think they eventually realized that it was pissing off their customers to see lower prices after they booked their cruises. And it was probably wasting a lot of time for their customer service reps to have to deal with all those onboard credits when the prices dropped. Also, by training your customers that prices will always drop, it was encouraging people to delay booking their cruises. It's in Carnival's best interest to actually encourage just the opposite. It seems they finally figured that out.

 

For whatever reasons, the current situation seems to be that the EARLIER you book, the lower the price will be. So, if you're looking for the best prices, it seems like your best strategy at this point in time is to book early.

 

Those are good points. In this case, we are hoping to go for our son's 13th birthday, so booking early won't happen, but I'll definitely be more proactive in my planning from now on. :)

[ladygal4.4]

Book your cruise on the early savor rate. A lot of people aren't seeing price drops anymore. So if you get lucky, then you'll get the money back or on board credit

 

 

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[notyours75]

We booked our Jan 25 Freedom cruise 88 days out, an 8B balcony for $509/pp. We selected our cabin and I've monitored the rates daily. It went up to $549/pp for a while then began to creep back down to $509 around around the 40 day mark. It finally went down to $489/pp and we got a $40 OBC. It has remained there since. The balcony guarantee category is the one that has fluctuated widely. At one point it was as low as $409/pp. The last few days they've come out with some new sales that include OBC, upgrades, etc, but nothing that has lowered our cost yet. I know in our roll call group all the balcony category guarantees got their room assignments this week so I think they are starting the process of really looking at the remaining inventory.

 

Carnival knows exactly what the various costs will be with each price movement. What % of price protection people will claim it, what bookings it will generate, so they will move carefully to adjust the prices downward. Probably a lot of targeted offers going out to select customers via their PVPs, casino offers, etc to try and fill it without dropping the price too much. Ultimately cabins are like airline seats, if you sail empty the revenue is exactly 0. But unlike airlines each customer brings a certain amount of revenue and price protection claims deduct from that so at some point they go empty or are never put out on the general market to claim.

[Jimmy Geegitz]

Probably won't see much of a drop end of February. Spring break starts around then. Plus price drops are few and far between anymore

[ready2cruzagain]

A few years ago, the prices went down over time... and the longer you held out, the lower the price for the cruise, as long as there were still cabins available.

 

However, things have changed. I think one of the factors was that with Early Saver, Carnival ended up having to offer a lot of onboard credits to cover the difference in the prices. Also, I think they eventually realized that it was pissing off their customers to see lower prices after they booked their cruises. And it was probably wasting a lot of time for their customer service reps to have to deal with all those onboard credits when the prices dropped. Also, by training your customers that prices will always drop, it was encouraging people to delay booking their cruises. It's in Carnival's best interest to actually encourage just the opposite. It seems they finally figured that out.

 

For whatever reasons, the current situation seems to be that the EARLIER you book, the lower the price will be. So, if you're looking for the best prices, it seems like your best strategy at this point in time is to book early.

^^^^^^^^This is exactly what has been going on as of late.

 

We have always been able to book a last minute cruise to add on to our b2b's but this year have not been able to.

 

We have been watching 5 different cruise lines and even though there are several cabins left, the prices just keep going up.

 

Seems like the best price to get anymore is booking early.

[vwrestler171]

I know the price of my Vista cruise in Jan 2017 has gone up by $460 since I booked it. I know several people who HAD to get ES for price drops. I doubt there will be any price drops on that sailing.

[OntarioTraveller]

We booked 13 months out for our Feb 28th Liberty cruise. We have not seen the price go down, it has slowly risen.

We just booked a 5 day Sensation cruise for October. I had been watching it but procrastinated on booking. It did suddenly go up about $30 per person so I booked early saver and hope it will go back down....

[tallyho8]

Booking early generally has the lowest rates now. (not always)

 

You do not have as much chance of getting a credit when rates drop when you book Early Saver as you used to because now when cabins aren't selling, instead of Carnival lowering the advertised price like they used to do. They now are calling up passengers offering discounted upgrades leaving only the lowest priced inside cabins available.

[NoOtherVacay]

Thank you, everyone, for your input. Waiting was unavoidable in this case, but it's good to know that it likely won't go down anymore. Sounds like now is the time to convince DH that it's time to book. ;)

[buddylover]

I know the price of my Vista cruise in Jan 2017 has gone up by $460 since I booked it. I know several people who HAD to get ES for price drops. I doubt there will be any price drops on that sailing.

 

We are hoping for a price drop on our feb 2017 Vista sailing....with that said, I do think that the catagory of cabin you book is the determining factor....like how many of them there are (i.e., aft balconies vs 8B, 8C etc) There is a greater chance of a price drop in a catagory where there are many of them....an 8D costs more than an 8B (most of the time), so there may be more 8D's left, thus price drops towards the end depending on availability. My fingers are "crossed".....LOL

[Earthworm Jim]

Book your cruise on the early savor rate. A lot of people aren't seeing price drops anymore. So if you get lucky, then you'll get the money back or on board credit.

 

Isn't it too close to the OP's planned sailing date in late February for Early Saver to still be available?

[summersigh]

Thank you for your replies. I feel like I had read about fare trends and how they go up or down leading up to sailings. It does make sense though, that it would be based on how well the staterooms are selling.

 

Thanks again!

 

The cruise companies all use a computer program that monitors the supply and demand for bookings on all of their ships. It's programed to get the max possible as the trends allow.

 

We have 2 booked cruises with Carnival - one this winter and one in the spring. Both are close to $300pp more than we got them for booking between 6 and 9 months ahead.

[NoOtherVacay]

Isn't it too close to the OP's planned sailing date in late February for Early Saver to still be available?

 

Yes, Early Saver options haven't been available for at least a few weeks now. Maybe next time. :)