What was your upgrade offer and what did you bid

[Mike_DeA]

I was on the Escape 3/31/19 sailing in a CAS comped inside, and bid $130 x 2 for a balcony and won it about 3 weeks before sailing, a week or two after I had first booked the cruise. 

 

There was a lot of availability at that point and I bid higher than I normally would because it was a milestone bday trip.

[timf2001]

47 minutes ago, Greenpea2 said:

I agree with JamieLogical with the caveat that I also believe it sometimes has to do with what cabins would become available by accepting one bid over another. For example, a coveted aft balcony would likely generates more revenue for the next bid moving to that than it would for a regular midship balcony. 

 

 

For bidding considerations, a balcony is a balcony except for the spa balcony cabins.  The aft-facing balcony would not be considered more desirable to make available since you cannot bid specifically on aft-facing balcony.

[Greenpea2]

12 minutes ago, timf2001 said:

 

For bidding considerations, a balcony is a balcony except for the spa balcony cabins.  The aft-facing balcony would not be considered more desirable to make available since you cannot bid specifically on aft-facing balcony.

That's true and a good point. However, the aft balcony would then become available online for someone to book, so there is that.

 

[JamieLogical]

5 minutes ago, Greenpea2 said:

That's true and a good point. However, the aft balcony would then become available online for someone to book, so there is that.

 

 

Exactly. If they were planning to leave it open for purchase, it has more value. For the purposes of the bidding ladder, it does not.

[Guest phd1003]

On 5/6/2019 at 2:52 PM, cruiser1955a said:

We were just notified this morning for our Gem Bermuda cruise this Friday (5/10) that our bid was accepted.

Congratulations - What was the bid for the Villa?

[Marine Mom]

1 hour ago, cruiser1955a said:

NCL’s goal is to make money. They are not choosing upgrades at random, they are looking to maximize profit for each sailing. Naturally, they’re going to choose the person who’s spent more “total”. 

I think Lattiude level has something to do with it also.  

[JamieLogical]

2 minutes ago, Marine Mom said:

I think Lattiude level has something to do with it also.  

 

We don't have much evidence of that. Certainly we have seen a lot of people win bids who are on their first sailing. However, in the code behind the form that gets sent to PlusGrade when you submit a bid, it does include your Latitudes number, so they may be factoring it in in some way. I am not sure what kind of research and tracking NCL and PlusGrade have done concerning on board spending behavior. It seems possible that they could predict to some degree of certainty whether, for example, loyal NCL customers (high Latitudes level) are more inclined to spend more money on board after having won an upgrade. If so, they could factor Latitudes level into award decisions to some degree.

 

A lot can be done with data science if the parties involved choose to leverage all of the data at their disposal. Predictive analytics is a booming field right now. We just don't know to what extent NCL is utilizing predictive analytics in their bid acceptance algorithm. If they are NOT bothering to factor in data around on board spending habits, then the smartest business move is just to accept the bids that net them the highest profits RIGHT NOW and not give weight to things like original booking price, Latitudes level, how long it's been since your last cruise, how frequently you cruise, how much you spend on board, etc.

[kayteecat]

Good point @JamieLogical. When we were in our upgrade process last fall for our December sailing, I actually shared this thread with my boyfriend who is doing a Master's in Data Science because we were geeking out over what could possibly be factoring into the algorithm. I'm thinking there's a possibility (that you alluded to, I think) that the Latitudes number is being collected not necessarily to factor into the decisions, but to be able to determine whether Latitudes members are likelier to bid and what amount they are likely to bid as opposed to first-timers. So it's possibly there for the purposes of collecting data, and maybe not necessarily using it at that time.

 

I tend to agree that NCL is more likely to accept the bid that gives them more money now, and that how much money you spent on your original booking is nice to know, but more or less irrelevant. That money is already collected since your upgrade offer gets sent after final payment, they're more interested in what you have to offer them now. What is tougher to figure out is the "chain upgrade", where your bid fits in to free your original room and whose bids are in for that. For example, I got lucky with an early bid acceptance from an aft (not aft-facing) balcony to a mid-ship minisuite, about 60 days out from sailing. My thought is that mini-suites aren't quite as popular as many other room types and possibly weren't selling well, but freeing up my balcony room gives NCL a much better chance of either selling my room outright or upgrading someone from an OV or an inside for a decent price. So why not give me a bigger bathroom when they not only net my $150 pp, but they also net more money on my vacated balcony?

 

There's a lot we can only guess at, but threads like this certainly start to give us information to work with about how these decisions are made.

[Marine Mom]

13 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

We don't have much evidence of that. Certainly we have seen a lot of people win bids who are on their first sailing. However, in the code behind the form that gets sent to PlusGrade when you submit a bid, it does include your Latitudes number, so they may be factoring it in in some way. I am not sure what kind of research and tracking NCL and PlusGrade have done concerning on board spending behavior. It seems possible that they could predict to some degree of certainty whether, for example, loyal NCL customers (high Latitudes level) are more inclined to spend more money on board after having won an upgrade. If so, they could factor Latitudes level into award decisions to some degree.

 

A lot can be done with data science if the parties involved choose to leverage all of the data at their disposal. Predictive analytics is a booming field right now. We just don't know to what extent NCL is utilizing predictive analytics in their bid acceptance algorithm. If they are NOT bothering to factor in data around on board spending habits, then the smartest business move is just to accept the bids that net them the highest profits RIGHT NOW and not give weight to things like original booking price, Latitudes level, how long it's been since your last cruise, how frequently you cruise, how much you spend on board, etc.

Everytime I have bid haven/suites (always minimum) I have won even though friends who bid more for same cabin did not.  We are Platinum (almost Platinum Plus) and they were bronze and then silver.  It happened each time we sailed together so I do think lattitude level has something to do with it. 

[JamieLogical]

1 minute ago, Marine Mom said:

Everytime I have bid haven/suites (always minimum) I have won even though friends who bid more for same cabin did not.  We are Platinum (almost Platinum Plus) and they were bronze and then silver.  It happened each time we sailed together so I do think lattitude level has something to do with it. 

 

Were you booked in the same original cabin category as your friends?

[Marine Mom]

1 minute ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Were you booked in the same original cabin category as your friends?

Yes, we were both booked in Mini-suites (actually right next to each other) booked the same day, paid the same price.  I won an upgrade for the minimum bid and my friend bid a bit more as she never experienced a suite before.  Of course, I won she didn't.  Happened a second time and she bid even more to secure the suite and did not win.  Needless to say, I felt bad. 

[Alegeeter]

^ Yes, that's the key. If booked in the same category you may be right. But if you were initially booked in a higher category then it makes sense why NCL may upgrade you at a lower price because it means they can upgrade someone to your previous cabin.

 

Example: you were initially booked in a Minisuite (MA) and your friends in a balcony (BA).

 

If you're upgraded, someone else in BA can upgrade to MA, then OV to that BA, and  IA to that OV. - 4 upgrades total

If you're friends go from BA to Haven, then OV to BA, IA to OV - only 3 upgrades total

 

NCL may actually earn more money by upgrading you to Haven from a minisuite even thought your bid was less because they're getting an extra upgrade bid altogether.

 

That is why when I was booked in an OV I only put in a bid for MA and not both MA and BA. I assumed that if I bid for a BA NCL wouldn't even consider my MA offer because they could give it to someone else. End result? I got my MA offer.

[Alegeeter]

Never mind LOL

 

just saw your response 🙂

[Marine Mom]

2 minutes ago, Alegeeter said:

Never mind LOL

 

just saw your response 🙂

All good.  I am not sure how or why NCL accepts/rejects bids I'm just saying from my experience, it would seem that Lattitude level does have something to do with it.  😊

[JamieLogical]

13 minutes ago, Marine Mom said:

Yes, we were both booked in Mini-suites (actually right next to each other) booked the same day, paid the same price.  I won an upgrade for the minimum bid and my friend bid a bit more as she never experienced a suite before.  Of course, I won she didn't.  Happened a second time and she bid even more to secure the suite and did not win.  Needless to say, I felt bad. 

 

This is great info. Clearly there was something besides bid amount factoring in here. You may be correct that it was Latitudes level. Might also be things like on board spending history or other demographic information that NCL could use to determine whether awarding you the upgrade versus your friend would result in more money for them overall..... very interesting.

[Marine Mom]

7 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

This is great info. Clearly there was something besides bid amount factoring in here. You may be correct that it was Latitudes level. Might also be things like on board spending history or other demographic information that NCL could use to determine whether awarding you the upgrade versus your friend would result in more money for them overall..... very interesting.

Well if they factor in onboard spending then I would have to say that would me ME!!!! LOL

[brer111]

I have followed this post for a long time. We are platinum getting closer to platinum plus have placed bids on the last two cruises and have never won a bid. Last year we did what I felt was a strong bid on havens ( we always book balcony since mini suite not worth extra $$) but no luck. Will try again on our next cruise this November .

[Greenpea2]

41 minutes ago, Marine Mom said:

Yes, we were both booked in Mini-suites (actually right next to each other) booked the same day, paid the same price.  I won an upgrade for the minimum bid and my friend bid a bit more as she never experienced a suite before.  Of course, I won she didn't.  Happened a second time and she bid even more to secure the suite and did not win.  Needless to say, I felt bad. 

Well, I know Latitudes level (or at least the highest levels) used to play a part, back when the "Upsell fairy" used to call people. I know this because one of the Fairies that called me with an offer told me that. So it's quite possible it still does.

[Marine Mom]

15 minutes ago, Greenpea2 said:

Well, I know Latitudes level (or at least the highest levels) used to play a part, back when the "Upsell fairy" used to call people. I know this because one of the Fairies that called me with an offer told me that. So it's quite possible it still does.

Loved, loved, loved the upsell Fairy!!!! LOL

[Vyhanek]

Just placed a bid for my cruise on Friday on the Gem.

 

I was booked in a mini suite garuntee.  I'm Platinum Plus.  I bid $510 for a Penthouse Suite and it was declined.    There were lots of empty suites.   I bid on the lowest level suite.   Some of the higher level suites had the bidding starting at like $1700 additional per person.   

 

I'm sort of happy it was declined, I would have lost my package perks.   

 

I have an Upgrade Fairy story.  This is probably 5 years ago on the Pearl.   I had booked 2 mini suites connecting rooms.   I get a call from the upgrade fairy to upgrade to the Garden Villa.   I was so excited.   The NCL rep tells me how much extra I will have to pay.........$19k.   For an additional 19 THOUSAND DOLLARS I could have the Garden Villa.   That's after paying for my 2 mini suites, on top of that another 19k.   

 

I'm Platinum Plus.   In all these years that's the closest I've ever come to an upgrade.   Two sad upgrade stories.   

[Chesneygirl]

This thread has gotten very interesting! 

So what do you think would happen in this scenario of 2 people bidding on the same Haven suite?

1. Someone books a Haven Suite and pays $6000 and then later places a bid of $1000 to upgrade to a 2 bedroom suite

2. Someone books a mini suite for $3500 and then later places a bid for $2000 for the same 2 bedroom suite

 

Based on what I'm reading would person #2 most likely win that bid? 

[Marine Mom]

7 minutes ago, Vyhanek said:

I have an Upgrade Fairy story.  This is probably 5 years ago on the Pearl.   I had booked 2 mini suites connecting rooms.   I get a call from the upgrade fairy to upgrade to the Garden Villa.   I was so excited.   The NCL rep tells me how much extra I will have to pay.........$19k.   For an additional 19 THOUSAND DOLLARS I could have the Garden Villa.   That's after paying for my 2 mini suites, on top of that another 19k.   

 

Now that is funny!

[Chris_2448]

8 minutes ago, Chesneygirl said:

This thread has gotten very interesting! 

So what do you think would happen in this scenario of 2 people bidding on the same Haven suite?

1. Someone books a Haven Suite and pays $6000 and then later places a bid of $1000 to upgrade to a 2 bedroom suite

2. Someone books a mini suite for $3500 and then later places a bid for $2000 for the same 2 bedroom suite

 

Based on what I'm reading would person #2 most likely win that bid? 

It's not that simple. You also have to take into account that NCL are also going to accept bids going into these peoples previous rooms. NCL is going to award upgrades on what chain of upgrades nets them the most additional revenue.

[JamieLogical]

51 minutes ago, Chesneygirl said:

This thread has gotten very interesting! 

So what do you think would happen in this scenario of 2 people bidding on the same Haven suite?

1. Someone books a Haven Suite and pays $6000 and then later places a bid of $1000 to upgrade to a 2 bedroom suite

2. Someone books a mini suite for $3500 and then later places a bid for $2000 for the same 2 bedroom suite

 

Based on what I'm reading would person #2 most likely win that bid? 

 

Person 1 could win because then someone else can be upgraded into their current Haven Suite. It would be the combined total of what someone is willing to pay for Person 1's suite plus what Person 1 is paying compared to what someone is willing to pay to upgrade to Person 2's mini-suite plus what Person 2 is paying... But actually even more complicated than that because say someone in a mini-suite upgraded into Person 1's original haven room, then someone could be upgraded into THAT person's mini-suite, vacating a balcony, which someone could then upgrade into from an OV, which would then be vacant for someone in an interior room... So it's really the total of the whole CHAIN of upgrades that gets compared against the whole other CHAIN of upgrades....

[JAYNECOBB]

 

Probably sharing too much info, but oh well.  We booked our cruise last June. Paid $4,500 per person, so 9k total for 2 people in a midship balcony room on the Star for a 12 day Mediterranean. It leaves from Terragona on May 12th, 2019, ending in Venice. The day we got the email to upgrade we put the maximum bid on 4 suites. S1, SB, SC and SG. The S1 was $5000 per person. So that would have been a total of $19,000 (9k+ 10k for the upgrade bid) for the S1. We watched the price of the S1 drop from $14,459 to 13,459 per person where it stayed for several weeks. Last week most everything showed sold out. We are 3 days from sailing and still no word. Our bids show pending and everything but a few inside rooms are sold out now. So someone must have booked those suites last minute for full price or we tied with someone on the max bid and some other factor, such as status, was considered in selecting the upgrade. We still have a great room, but finally had the money to put in an “excellent” bid and still didn’t get it 😕 We fully expect to get the “thanks, but no thanks” email tomorrow morning at the 48 hour mark. 

 

Thoughts? 

Edited May 9, 2019 by JAYNECOBB
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