Oasis incident at Freeport Shipyard

[fsjosh]

Not sure if it is a coincidence or planned, but she's running parallel to Allure at the same approximate speed and heading. Allure is heading to St. Maarten which is along the route they have plotted out for Oasis. 

[fsjosh]

3 minutes ago, twangster said:

 

With the world watching and stock market analysts looking for any excuse to downgrade them?  These aren't normal times on a normal cruise.  

 

So, with the world watching and the stock market looking for problems, you'd program the AIS to say you are headed straight to Spain then unexpectedly stop in San Juan? Don't you think that might raise some red flags about the condition of the ship and with the shareholders? 

[OhioCraig]

She could be taking a southerly route across the Atlantic to avoid possible storms.  I haven't had the chance to look at weather forecasts for the north Atlantic.

[kruzerci]

16 minutes ago, twangster said:

 

With the world watching and stock market analysts looking for any excuse to downgrade them

 

That’s probably one of the most far fetched statements I’ve read on these boards. And that’s saying something!

[twangster]

4 minutes ago, fsjosh said:

 

So, with the world watching and the stock market looking for problems, you'd program the AIS to say you are headed straight to Spain then unexpectedly stop in San Juan? Don't you think that might raise some red flags about the condition of the ship and with the shareholders? 

 

San Juan is a rumor from this forum.  

 

Perhaps they will stop in PR, perhaps not.  Perhaps fuel there is cheaper than Freeport.  Perhaps they have a fuel contract that makes it a logical place to "top up".  

 

A cruise website on the internet is not evidence that a stop in PR is actually going to happen.  "If it's on the internet, it must be true".  

[fsjosh]

3 minutes ago, twangster said:

 

San Juan is a rumor from this forum.  

 

Perhaps they will stop in PR, perhaps not.  Perhaps fuel there is cheaper than Freeport.  Perhaps they have a fuel contract that makes it a logical place to "top up".  

 

A cruise website on the internet is not evidence that a stop in PR is actually going to happen.  "If it's on the internet, it must be true".  

 

There was a fuel bunker at Oasis today. It was discussed in this thread as evidence it was getting ready to leave. 

 

You are the one with the rumors with the "maybe they are swinging by to pick up the crew" and falsifying ais info. I'm positive they have no plans to stop in San Juan. You are the one arguing otherwise. To backpedal now and start blaming rumors on other people comes across as you just increasing your post count. 

[grandgeezer]

20 minutes ago, twangster said:

 

With the world watching and stock market analysts looking for any excuse to downgrade them?  These aren't normal times on a normal cruise.  

 

A bit paranoid? Even with record sales and earnings the last couple of years the stock has underperformed long before this incident. Big financial institutions control the market and they do their own analysis.

Besides, this s only one ship out of their massive fleet, including Celebrity.

[jdjaguar]

Oasis on the move !

15+ knots!

good news cruisers!

[jdjaguar]

18 knots

cruising speed.

thats all I need to see.

Barcelona here we come!

[willde]

1 hour ago, ipeeinthepool said:

She's heading south, I think she's really going to San Juan

 

Oasis is heading ESE.  It's one way to get past Great Abaco when heading to Spain from Freeport.  Another would have been to head west, then north around Grand Bahama island.  Doubt there's anything in PR or any of the Lesser Antilles that couldn't have been shipped from FL to Freeport during the week...

 

[twangster]

6 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

 

A bit paranoid? Even with record sales and earnings the last couple of years the stock has underperformed long before this incident. Big financial institutions control the market and they do their own analysis.

Besides, this s only one ship out of their massive fleet, including Celebrity.

 

See post 213.

 

Analysts are watching and waiting to update their guidance.  

 

Oasis generated $404,354,000 million in revenue in 2018, or $1,107,780 million per day.  Losing $26M on the current cancelled sailings is a drop in the bucket and analysts admit as much, yet it's $26M in lost revenue, so far.  If, and that is a big if, they had to take her out of service for additional bookings then analysts would update their guidance.  

 

[volk904]

I think you guys are making to big of an issue with San Juan.   The ship traffic route shows the Oasis projected route going Southwest toward San Juan and then taking the shortest route NE toward Southern Spain.  The Oasis left FL for an expected 5-6 day stop for repairs before returning to FL for another cruise and supply stock up.  

 

Now they are taking an 11 day Atlantic crossing along with a 8-10 day shipyard stay.  

RCCL has a regular supply port in San Juan.  I expect they will load up with the supplies, food etc needed for the 3 weeks with the crew.  Loading food and regular supplies at the ship yard was probably not done because Royal does not warehouse them there.   They might also pick up workers and supplies to start work on repairs that can be done at sea.  

 

 

 

[ipeeinthepool]

6 minutes ago, volk904 said:

I think you guys are making to big of an issue with San Juan.   The ship traffic route shows the Oasis projected route going Southwest toward San Juan and then taking the shortest route NE toward Southern Spain.  The Oasis left FL for an expected 5-6 day stop for repairs before returning to FL for another cruise and supply stock up.  

 

Now they are taking an 11 day Atlantic crossing along with a 8-10 day shipyard stay.  

RCCL has a regular supply port in San Juan.  I expect they will load up with the supplies, food etc needed for the 3 weeks with the crew.  Loading food and regular supplies at the ship yard was probably not done because Royal does not warehouse them there.   They might also pick up workers and supplies to start work on repairs that can be done at sea.  

 

 

 

 

If you want to see the shortest route look at the Koningsdam from Fort Lauderdale to the Azores. They went north not south.  Every mile south is a mile in the wrong direction.

[luisrp]

Marine Traffic's forecast route does not show Oasis doing any stop in any of the NE Caribbean islands.  It will sail right between Culebra, PR and St. Thomas, continue SE to Montserrat and then turn around St. John's NE towards Spain.  Looks to me they want to keep near land for as long as possible.  San Juan is the next port in the route that could provide some services even if there is no dry dock that can hold this ship.

 

[AL3XCruise]

45 minutes ago, OhioCraig said:

She could be taking a southerly route across the Atlantic to avoid possible storms.  I haven't had the chance to look at weather forecasts for the north Atlantic.

 

That seems the most likely explanation; looks like low pressure moving across the North Atlantic, it may be as simple as they want  to remain south of it.  

 

18 knots makes it sound like she has at least two working pods, and quite possibly all three.

 

16 minutes ago, twangster said:

If, and that is a big if, they had to take her out of service for additional bookings then analysts would update their guidance.  

 

True, but I have a feeling analysts would be waiting for something more concrete than an unusual routing or an unexpected stop before taking action.  I can't speak to the cruise industry, but when I have worked with financial companies in other industries most seemed to avoid extensive analysis of raw operational data as they didn't have the expertise on staff to really understand it and/or they realized there were too many other variables at play to make an accurate determination.  Prompt questions, sure, but I highly doubt you'd see downgrades or sales.

Edited April 8, 2019 by AL3XCruise

[fsjosh]

7 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

If you want to see the shortest route look at the Koningsdam from Fort Lauderdale to the Azores. They went north not south.  Every mile south is a mile in the wrong direction.

 

So why go to San Juan? They were less than 100 miles from Florida at Freeport. They could have swung by any of those ports if they needed some theoretical resupply. 

[Clarea]

1 minute ago, fsjosh said:

 

So why go to San Juan? They were less than 100 miles from Florida at Freeport. They could have swung by any of those ports if they needed some theoretical resupply. 

 

I'd like to hear the Chief's thoughts on that.

[volk904]

Also keep in mid a normal transatlantic is 6 sea days.  In this case they seem to have extra time built in to a schedule to arrive at the drydock on a given date.  

[AL3XCruise]

12 minutes ago, fsjosh said:

So why go to San Juan? They were less than 100 miles from Florida at Freeport. They could have swung by any of those ports if they needed some theoretical resupply. 

 

I haven't seen anything credible saying they are going to San Juan, just that they are sailing near San Juan, which may be due to North Atlantic Weather.  A straight shot from San Juan to Spain keeps them south of whats being forecast later this week.

[fsjosh]

A pic of Oasis leaving. You can see the side where the dock rubbed against the hull. 

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bv-mD8Fn0Fb/?utm_source=ig_web_options_share_sheet

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by fsjosh

[luisrp]

10 minutes ago, fsjosh said:

A pic of Oasis leaving. You can see the side where the dock rubbed against the hull. 

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bv-mD8Fn0Fb/?utm_source=ig_web_options_share_sheet

 

Another picture by the same person shows what appear like the crane was removed.  The poster appears to be a Freeport harbor pilot.

 

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by luisrp

[fsjosh]

Just now, luisrp said:

 

Another picture by the same person shows what appear like the crane was removed.

 

 

I saw that one but couldn't tell much by it. 

 

btw how did you embed the insta post?

 

[luisrp]

1 minute ago, fsjosh said:

I saw that one but couldn't tell much by it. 

 

btw how did you embed the insta post?

 

 

 I just copied the link from the browser address bar and pasted into my post.  Did not do anything special.

 

[fsjosh]

1 minute ago, luisrp said:

 

 I just copied the link from the browser address bar and pasted into my post.  Did not do anything special.

 

 

 

Hmm, I did that and it just put the link. 

 

[John&LaLa]

works for me

17 minutes ago, fsjosh said:

 

 

Hmm, I did that and it just put the link.