NCLH Stock Price

[At Sea At Peace]

4 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I believe MSC shipping is flush. 

 

 

Yep.

 

January 5, 2022 12:15 PM, EST

Maersk Overtaken as World’s No. 1 Shipping Line by MSC

 

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/maersk-overtaken-worlds-no-1-shipping-line-msc

 

Some points ~

 

"The Danish carrier has been overtaken by Mediterranean Shipping Co. in terms of capacity, according to data compiled by Alphaliner and published Jan . 5. MSC’s fleet can carry 4,284,728 standard 20-foot containers, 1,888 more than Maersk, giving both a market share of 17%."

 

"Closely held MSC, which is based in Geneva, has since 2020 been run by Soren Toft, formerly heir apparent at Maersk. While the poaching of a potential future CEO could sour relations between companies, Maersk and MSC still work together in areas such as a vessel-sharing partnership and a blockchain-based platform for sharing and streamlining shipping information."

 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

2 hours ago, commodore2010 said:

 

Going to be an interesting next couple years.   

CCL and RCL both have very bad debt issues. CCL just issued 

NCLH is not quite as bad. 

 

Lets see who gets to cash flow positive first.   My bet is NCLH. 

 

 

That's an interesting theory. I love friendly betting!! 

 

But I don't want to take your beer.......I believe RCL is already cash flow positive :).

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513986-royal-caribbean-stock-inflection-point?utm_source=news.google.com&utm_medium=referral

 

As we all know, cash flow positive is just a tiny step at this point. 

[DirtyDawg]

On 5/26/2022 at 12:53 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

Obviously we are all participating in friendly speculation. 

 

This is what I know about MCS. We need to ship product to the USA for hubby's business. A container that cost less than $1,800 in 2020 just priced at $11,300.

 

I believe MSC shipping is flush. 

 

 

I just saw some quarterly results from a couple of publicly traded bulk carriers. It's interesting the amount of money they can make carrying iron ore, grains and coal as 'passengers' rather than carrying people. And they have an added bonus of no 'passengers' complaining  to Guest Services or posting on Bulk Carrier Critic. 😉

[BermudaBound2014]

12 hours ago, DirtyDawg said:

I just saw some quarterly results from a couple of publicly traded bulk carriers. It's interesting the amount of money they can make carrying iron ore, grains and coal as 'passengers' rather than carrying people. And they have an added bonus of no 'passengers' complaining  to Guest Services or posting on Bulk Carrier Critic. 😉

no doubt! All that cash to ship a container of golf shafts!! 
 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

Headlines like these are not going to help confidence in cruising.  As if cruise lines don’t l already have multiple strikes against them 😞 
 

https://news.yahoo.com/cruise-lines-canceling-sailings-closing-115700546.html

 

sad sad sad 

 

Edited May 29, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[DirtyDawg]

On 5/28/2022 at 9:42 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

no doubt! All that cash to ship a container of golf shafts!! 
 

 

Be careful near a ship carrying golf shafts. It won't travel in a straight line and will always miss it's intended target by 50 yards to the right. 🏌️‍♂️ 😁

[At Sea At Peace]

On 5/28/2022 at 9:44 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

Headlines like these are not going to help confidence in cruising.  As if cruise lines don’t l already have multiple strikes against them 😞 
 

https://news.yahoo.com/cruise-lines-canceling-sailings-closing-115700546.html

 

sad sad sad 

 

 

The hiring, and retention, of employees is just one of the most difficult factors that businesses of all sizes are experiencing.  The hospitality industry in the States has been particularly hard hit.  In Boston, for example, a sous chef would average $65,000 pre-pandemic, work long and hard mid-week through the weekend; now many are seeking $90,000, want to work during the week, and get 6-weeks PTO regardless of longevity (i.e., out of the gate).  

 

The cruise lines draw from a completely different demographic and geographic source where the tough cruise line employment compensation and conditions still outweigh the at home economics.  I don't know what the specific difficulties are in getting the crew back from these traditional sources, but it is clear that there is a current issue.  Could be logistics of health and testing in the various countries.  Could be a concern with health and testing and quarantine if return (similar to why some historic cruise passengers are still holding out).

 

You are certainly right that it is another strike against the cruise lines at this time.

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

13 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

  Could be a concern with health and testing and quarantine if return (similar to why some historic cruise passengers are still holding out).

 

You are certainly right that it is another strike against the cruise lines at this time.

 

 

 

Based on crew social, here are some of the most common issues I see being discussed:

 

- Mandatory Quarantine to join ship

- Weekly testing (possible more quarantine)

- Vaccine Hesitancy

- Limited crew activities post covid

- Bad taste from covid shut down

- Fear of another shut down

- Found new employment

- And the current #1 complaint I read about is mandatory masking.

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

Stocks taking a beating this morning over this article that paints a darker picture into 2024:

 

"The demand for cruise vacations may be weakening as high levels of inflation, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and a slowing economy weigh on consumer purchase decisions.....

 

The pricing softness looks to be extending into 2023 and 2024, BofA noted, as ticket pricing for all three cruise lines fell 2.6% on average for 2024 in the latest survey."

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cruise-stocks-may-be-in-trouble-as-demand-seems-to-be-eroding-bof-a-200745167.html

 

As of 10:30 a.m.... 

 

 

[At Sea At Peace]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Stocks taking a beating this morning over this article that paints a darker picture into 2024:

 

"The demand for cruise vacations may be weakening as high levels of inflation, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and a slowing economy weigh on consumer purchase decisions.....

 

The pricing softness looks to be extending into 2023 and 2024, BofA noted, as ticket pricing for all three cruise lines fell 2.6% on average for 2024 in the latest survey."

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cruise-stocks-may-be-in-trouble-as-demand-seems-to-be-eroding-bof-a-200745167.html

 

 

 

 

 

Yep, we've been leisurely discussing the purported pent up demand, the FCC expirations, the numbers of ships returning on all lines, new ships launching etc. at a time when fuel has doubled (blind governance to limit something without existing alternatives and with no visible end in sight), food costs are soaring, recurrence  (it seems) of fearmongering on new variants and the need for return to mitigation mandates, etc., and the never ending entry of new obstacles like finding adequate crew.

 

We mused that they needed a great summer, not just in passenger counts but in profitability (not just cash flow from deposits), in order to take on the Fall and Winter.

 

I still concur with your logic that RCL is the best positioned.  I proffer that CCL is too big and will have to divest subsidiary lines just to keep its most modernized Carnival line ships and the NCL is quite smaller (especially net of its subsidiary lines) and lends itself more to a takeover deal with a sovereign fund or private player (which require some debt to take a shaving and equity to get nothing).

 

Again, these ships we love will all still sail; who owns them is still to be seen.

Edited June 9, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[cruisingguy007]

55 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

I still concur with your logic that RCL is the best positioned.  I proffer that CCL is too big and will have to divest subsidiary lines just to keep its most modernized Carnival line ships and the NCL is quite smaller (especially net of its subsidiary lines) and lends itself more to a takeover deal with a sovereign fund or private player (which require some debt to take a shaving and equity to get nothing).

 

I was with you in the first part but this ^^ literally makes no sense. CCL having the ability to pivot, vs a the smaller RCI? I'd bank on Carnival as the last domino to fall. They own market saturation, are the low price leader, right now, more important than ever and may be the only thing that matters if things really implode, plus they have, as you stated, diversity in products and debt holders who are already in for a pound, not merely a penny. Being "too big" has advantages. They've already acquired the private equity you mentioned. No one is interested in buying a cruise line right now or anytime in the near future. Survival is the name of the game and CCL is positioned best, no question about it.        

[At Sea At Peace]

34 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

I was with you in the first part but this ^^ literally makes no sense. CCL having the ability to pivot, vs a the smaller RCI? I'd bank on Carnival as the last domino to fall. They own market saturation, are the low price leader, right now, more important than ever and may be the only thing that matters if things really implode, plus they have, as you stated, diversity in products and debt holders who are already in for a pound, not merely a penny. Being "too big" has advantages. They've already acquired the private equity you mentioned. No one is interested in buying a cruise line right now or anytime in the near future. Survival is the name of the game and CCL is positioned best, no question about it.        

 

NP.  Points well taken.

 

We'll see.  If demand isn't there and you have the most ships it would seem that you have the biggest risk trying to fill.  Again, we'll see.  👍

[BermudaBound2014]

@cruisingguy007 initially I was with you in thinking CCL was too big to fail, but in the current situation, the more ships you have the faster debt is racking up. I do acknowledge that CCL may in fact survive simply by parting out it's existing line. Saudi's have an interest in Seabourn so I'm guessing that goes first. I'd put my money on HAL being on the chopping block considering there are no new ships in the works for that line. Princess is problematic because it is the poster child for covid. Perhaps a combining of HAL/Princess (since they attack similar market share) under a brand new name to rid the stereotype. So, i could ammend my 3 little bears analogy to state:

CCL is too big (as it sits today)

NCL is too small (and vulnerable.... keep an eye on MSC who is attacking their market share)

RCL is just right (acknowledging that no lines are 'right' about anything at the moment)

 

@At Sea At Peace as always, we tend to see things similarly. Wondering why you never joined the short train with me. Right now shorting cruise stock is the only thing advancing my portfolio. 

[BermudaBound2014]

NCL has crossed the line and is in the 13ish range at the moment. At some point I need to consider clearing some shorts.

 

[At Sea At Peace]

35 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

@At Sea At Peace as always, we tend to see things similarly. Wondering why you never joined the short train with me. Right now shorting cruise stock is the only thing advancing my portfolio. 

 

 

Been real busy liquidating resort and waterfront properties at unimaginable prices.  Trying to snag that Hindenburg bubble before the burst.  🙃 

 

The short interest on these cruise lines, as measured in relation to the activity in the debt issuances trades, yields, etc., might be a play for one (or more) of these closer to the END.  The best short for me is the one that essentially doesn't even have to ever be filled (i.e., declaration of restructuring or bankruptcy) based on timing of assessment that such is unavoidable.

 

Just muse what it would take to 'return to pre-2019 with post 2022 ship berths profitably ~

 

~ no viruses or impacts, open and safe cruising, all ages, all geographies.

~ fuel price reductions of 50% (cruise lines, airlines and at the pump).

~ food and related cost reductions.

~ no wars or conflicts.

~ home interest rates (mortgages and HELOCs) back to 2-2.5% less than today.

~ available and eager crews at 2019 indexed compensation.

 

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Been real busy liquidating resort and waterfront properties at unimaginable prices.  Trying to snag that Hindenburg bubble before the burst.  🙃 

 

The short interest on these cruise lines, as measured in relation to the activity in the debt issuances trades, yields, etc., might be a play for one (or more) of these closer to the END.  The best short for me is the one that essentially doesn't even have to ever be filled (i.e., declaration of restructuring or bankruptcy) based on timing of assessment that such is unavoidable.

 

Just muse what it would take to 'return to pre-2019 with post 2022 ship berths profitably ~

 

~ no viruses or impacts, open and safe cruising, all ages, all geographies.

~ fuel price reductions of 50% (cruise lines, airlines and at the pump).

~ food and related cost reductions.

~ no wars or conflicts.

~ home interest rates (mortgages and HELOCs) back to 2-2.5% less than today.

~ available and eager crews at 2019 indexed compensation.

 

 

We really need to have drinks one evening. I'm interested in this liquidation process too :-). I've been reading that the housing market is starting to dry up (at least here in Michigan). I'm in the market for another rental property. Maybe you can hook me up with one of those luxury resorts you have cooking? 😉 

 

Right now CCL is down 60% and NCL is down 55% in the last year (which is about the time I switched into shorts). I'm a small player here with only 500 shares of each. I dumped all my short RCL for a nice profit about a month ago because they make me nervous. The way I see it, I am going to ride each of these into single digits. My financial advisor and DH think I"m nuts too but it's been the right play.

[At Sea At Peace]

Pretty ugly yesterday, not so good today either.  What is interesting today is the volume out of the gate.

 

Volume Today

 

1.5 Hours / Average Day % - Down

 

RCL    3.1M /   3.5m - 89% - (5.13%)

NCL 12.5M / 19.8M - 63% - (2.54%)

CCL  24.5M / 36.3M - 67% - (3.86%)

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 What is interesting today is the volume out of the gate.

 

 

What does that volume movement suggest to you?

[At Sea At Peace]

32 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

What does that volume movement suggest to you?

 

Unless other factors are identified, I generally see high volume in support of either (1) an increasing PPS or (2) a decreasing PPS as an indicator in and of the strength of the conviction of that direction continuing.

[BermudaBound2014]

4 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Unless other factors are identified, I generally see high volume in support of either (1) an increasing PPS or (2) a decreasing PPS as an indicator in and of the strength of the conviction of that direction continuing.

 

Thanks. So you keep it nice and simple :). 

 

The initial volume at opening was driving PPS up. Then it tanked, as we would expect. There has been a pretty distinct pattern with cruise stock. Rally at the opening bell, then sell off at 10:30. Repeat at 2:00 p.m. It's pretty much like clockwork. What are your thoughts on this?

 

 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

Summary at the closing bell.

 

NCL lost 4.5% today

NCL lost another 15.7% this week

NCL has lost 58% since launching the "Great Cruise Comeback" in June of 2021

 

Currently NCL is the same price as it was on April 6, 2020. At this rate it will reenter March of 2020 pricing early next week.

 

Is everyone paying attention? 

Edited June 10, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[At Sea At Peace]

36 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Summary at the closing bell.

 

NCL lost 4.5% today

NCL lost another 15.7% this week

NCL has lost 58% since launching the "Great Cruise Comeback" in June of 2021

 

Currently NCL is the same price as it was on April 6, 2020. At this rate it will reenter March of 2020 pricing early next week.

 

Is everyone paying attention? 

 

Yep.

 

Despite the closing PPS $13.16, it's got a long way to go to match the March 2020 lows (*when adjusted for shares outstanding).

 

For example ~

 

In March of 2020 the PPS hit (let's say) $7.75.  That's half the story.  There were only 213,082,411 shares outstanding.  A MKT CAP of $1,651,388,685.

 

If you take the current March 2022 419,100,690 shares outstanding as the denominator to the 2020 low of $1,651,388,685 the comparative low would be a PPS of $3.94.

 

So, with a $13.16 closing, it is still $9.22 (or 70%) higher than the March 2020 low.

 

"long way to go"

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

Thanks... I wasn't adjusting for shares outstanding.

 

But let's face it, $3.94 isn't out of the question 😉 

[At Sea At Peace]

16 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Thanks... I wasn't adjusting for shares outstanding.

 

But let's face it, $3.94 isn't out of the question 😉 

 

It really gets nasty in the data trenches.

 

At 3/31/2020, with 214,525,621 shares and Stockholder's Equity of $4,374,654,000, the BOOK VALUE per share was $20.39.  The PPS fell to $7.75 or 38% of book value (or -62% under).

 

At 3/31/2022, with 419,100,690 shares and Stockholder's Equity of $1,507,602,000, the BOOK VALUE per share was $3.60.  The PPS recently closed at $13.16 or 366% over book value.

 

Fundamentally, there really isn't a long-term indicator that supports the current valuation.

 

[Crazy planning mom]

So, for us novices, does that mean MSC or some other investors, takes over NCL when it gets down to $4 a share?   Will this happen in 2022 or 2023?