Crystal Ball Question

[WholeNewWorld]

My husband and I have 2 cruises coming later this year.  The August Scandinavia and the 2022 ATW.  I am sure will require the vaccine for both.  I don't have a problem getting it-but I do have a problem actually getting it.  

We are both 47 - so, close to the bottom of the list for this. I'm a bit worried we won't be able to get it before either of the cruises.

 

Any thoughts on how Oceania will handle this situation?  

I understand this is completely guessing, but since that is all we have right now, guess away!

[Tranquility Base]

9 minutes ago, WholeNewWorld said:

I understand this is completely guessing, but since that is all we have right now, guess away!

My guess; neither cruise will sail.

When is final payment for ATW 22 ?

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Tranquility Base

[WholeNewWorld]

11 minutes ago, Tranquility Base said:

My guess; neither cruise will sail.

When is final payment for ATW 22 ?

 

yeah that has been our thought as well.  😞 Finals are due March & July.  

[pinotlover]

The OP does not say where they live. If in the US, most authorities are predicting that by July , people wanting or needing to be vaccinated will. Talk to your physician or provider and explain your circumstances, and I believe you’ll get in for the shot(s) by July. 
 

I believe the 22 ATW will cruise. It may not originate in the US or visit US ports. A simple Oceania charter flight from Miami to Barbados or even Cancun for embarkment.

Edited February 6, 2021 by pinotlover

[njhorseman]

3 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

The OP does not say where they live.

Look carefully. It says "Colorado" in the same spot your posting ID says "USA"

[TrulyBlonde]

Since OP is from Colorado I am sharing how we get the vaccine "Rocky Mountain Style".

It is not the car wash 😉.   DH got his 1st yesterday at the Music Tent.

[WholeNewWorld]

Congrats!  Stay safe

[marieps]

They have snow in Colorado?  😁

[WholeNewWorld]

Usually we have lots of snow.  This winter, so far, maybe a foot total, it's very dry and scary. If you are the praying type we could use a couple of huge snow storms here.  

[TrulyBlonde]

12 minutes ago, WholeNewWorld said:

Usually we have lots of snow.  This winter, so far, maybe a foot total, it's very dry and scary. If you are the praying type we could use a couple of huge snow storms here.  

We just received 20 inches the other day where I live. Another 3 to 4 last night and snow almost all of next week. I live at 9000 ft on the ski run 🙂 

[susiesan]

I also have an August Scandinavia cruise with final payment due May 5. Husband and I are both vaccinated. I won't be making the payment, that cruise will be a no go. I will get my $1500 deposit back and move on to land vacations for 2021. I have already booked the same cruise on NCL for August 2022 for half the cost of Oceania.

[WholeNewWorld]

TrulyBlonde-Im at 8000' (Black Forest) and it's warm here.  😞 Send some snow this way! 🙂 

[TrulyBlonde]

2 minutes ago, WholeNewWorld said:

TrulyBlonde-Im at 8000' (Black Forest) and it's warm here.  😞 Send some snow this way! 🙂 

I will do a snow dance 

[WholeNewWorld]

Susiesan- Today's plan to pay the August cruise, then when it's canceled move that money to the ATW when that one is canceled.   But with how quickly things change-who knows what will actually happen.

[giustot]

My opinion, I would not pay the August cruise which is certain to be canceled. Why would you want to give your money to Oceania to hold, interest free, for nine months for a world cruise that also could be canceled? And we don't know if Oceania even has the resources to stay in business that long if cruising doesn't resume.

 

I don't mean to sound so pessimistic but there is still too much uncertainty to be giving money to cruise lines for cruises this year.

 

I also don't think any cruise line whose bread and butter is US passengers is going to change its port schedules to circumvent US laws.

 

Tom.

[pinotlover]

8 hours ago, giustot said:

My opinion, I would not pay the August cruise which is certain to be canceled. Why would you want to give your money to Oceania to hold, interest free, for nine months for a world cruise that also could be canceled? And we don't know if Oceania even has the resources to stay in business that long if cruising doesn't resume.

 

I don't mean to sound so pessimistic but there is still too much uncertainty to be giving money to cruise lines for cruises this year.

 

I also don't think any cruise line whose bread and butter is US passengers is going to change its port schedules to circumvent US laws.

 

Tom.

Tom;

 

You just made two contradictory statements. First, you reasonably question whether the cruise lines have the financial ability to survive. Then, in your last paragraph, you state they won’t take all necessary actions in an attempt to survive .

 

An example. The Marina is currently scheduled to return to Miami, from its Med schedule, then head for South America in December. My opinion is if they can run the SA cruises, but can’t work out CDC issues, they’ll bypass Miami. They’ll do this by either using a Carribe port replacing Miami’s, or outright cancellation of the two cruises scheduled to use the port, and have the ship proceed straight from the Med to the next port to resume operations. They won’t go bankrupt, contending with the CDC, if they can sail elsewhere, imo.

[Rob the Cruiser]

18 hours ago, marieps said:

They have snow in Colorado?  😁

 

It never snows in Colorado Springs...in July.

[WholeNewWorld]

1 minute ago, Rob the Cruiser said:

 

It never snows in Colorado Springs...in July.

LMAO-except for that one time... 😛

[WholeNewWorld]

1 hour ago, pinotlover said:

Tom;

 

You just made two contradictory statements. First, you reasonably question whether the cruise lines have the financial ability to survive. Then, in your last paragraph, you state they won’t take all necessary actions in an attempt to survive .

 

An example. The Marina is currently scheduled to return to Miami, from its Med schedule, then head for South America in December. My opinion is if they can run the SA cruises, but can’t work out CDC issues, they’ll bypass Miami. They’ll do this by either using a Carribe port replacing Miami’s, or outright cancellation of the two cruises scheduled to use the port, and have the ship proceed straight from the Med to the next port to resume operations. They won’t go bankrupt, contending with the CDC, if they can sail elsewhere, imo.

Not sure it matters but the ATW starts in LA then Hawaii then it leaves the states.  I'd be fine with a change of starting point.  What a huge mess for the company-I do feel bad for them.  

[giustot]

14 hours ago, pinotlover said:

You just made two contradictory statements. First, you reasonably question whether the cruise lines have the financial ability to survive. Then, in your last paragraph, you state they won’t take all necessary actions in an attempt to survive .

I didn't mean to sound like I was contradicting myself.

 

I said we don't yet know if cruise lines could survive another year of no cruising. And then I said, in my opinion, no cruise line that serves mostly US passengers would circumvent US laws.

 

Many here have brought up the possibility that cruise lines could bypass US restrictions by avoiding US ports. I don't see that as an action that would help a cruise line survive. I don't think cruise lines would even consider such an action. It's fraught with potential problems, political and logistical. How would you provision the ships? Most provisions, even those in foreign ports, come from the US. 

 

I think, as the CDC and cruise lines have indicated, when cruising resumes it will be a few ships at a time sailing shorter cruises round-trip from US ports. My best guess is that resumption is at least six months away. It would then take a few more months for the regularly scheduled cruises to begin.

 

Tom.

[pinotlover]

7 hours ago, giustot said:

I didn't mean to sound like I was contradicting myself.

 

I said we don't yet know if cruise lines could survive another year of no cruising. And then I said, in my opinion, no cruise line that serves mostly US passengers would circumvent US laws.

 

Many here have brought up the possibility that cruise lines could bypass US restrictions by avoiding US ports. I don't see that as an action that would help a cruise line survive. I don't think cruise lines would even consider such an action. It's fraught with potential problems, political and logistical. How would you provision the ships? Most provisions, even those in foreign ports, come from the US. 

 

I think, as the CDC and cruise lines have indicated, when cruising resumes it will be a few ships at a time sailing shorter cruises round-trip from US ports. My best guess is that resumption is at least six months away. It would then take a few more months for the regularly scheduled cruises to begin.

 

Tom.

Tom;

 

I personally agree with your thoughts about taking six months to restart, then having a slow rollout. I believe most posters accept that. I believe it might even be late September to October before they begin again.

 

Here’s my point. The CEO of Carnival cruises stated in an interview months ago that “ the US ports will probably be the last to reopen “. Currently, it appears it may be Canada, but his point was made. As countries and regions of the world reopen to cruising, the cruise lines will go there. If the Med or Baltic regions reopen under conditions that are acceptable to the lines, they will cruise there. If South America reopens to cruising this December, the cruise lines will go there. If the US and Canada keep their ports closed, it won’t stop the cruise ships from going elsewhere. 
 

Your apparent supposition is that Americans won’t sail in the Med, or elsewhere,  if Fauci and his supporters keep the industry shut down here. I challenge that supposition. I don’t believe the reach of the US CDC is nearly as long as you do. The ADA doesn’t apply in Tibet!