Carnival stock sinks toward a 30-year low as losses and revenue misses keep piling up

[Guest ldtr]

3 hours ago, CalTexCruiser said:

 

Me too.  I snatched up 100 shares this Friday at $ 7 per gallon for my Oct 8 cruise.

 

Not sure if they'll grant me the $ 100 OBC since this is within a week of sailing, but we shall see.

Just send it in via fax or email and then call the department to let them know of the short timeliness. I recently booked a cruise within a week of departure and was able to get it

[Guest ldtr]

People are acting as if this valuation is a surprise. It is more in line with real value, when one considers the amount of dilution of stock, and other factors.

 

The years pre covid was a golden age for cruising with low interest rates, high occupancy, and low fuel rates. Even with those conditions they needed 100%+ occupancy and increasing onboard sales to be profitable. With current debt loads and higher expenses for food and fuel they will need to return to those occupancy levels to be profitable, even with the higher onboard sales from all of the  inclusive type drink and other packages tacked on to initial fare purchases.

[c-boy]

1 hour ago, LACruiser88 said:

Yesterday, I paid $6.09 for Premium at Costco.  Outrageous!

we're lookin' at weighin' anchor and departing this leaking ship 

[Guest ldtr]

2 hours ago, mnocket said:

Maybe - maybe not.  Crystal requires large and early deposits.  When they went belly up there were many who lost tens or thousands of dollars.  Take a look at the Crystal board for first hand reports.  I agree that it's often the case that customers are kept whole, but there are always exceptions.  I have my first cruise on Regent Seven Seas (NCLH) booked for the end of 2023 and I will have to reassess the risk when final payment comes due.  It certainly isn't zero.

Crystal bk was driven by parent company bk who could not get any source of funding after their loan offer from Germany collapsed.. if one of the majors goes bk, there are plenty of sources that would line up for a restructuring where the share holders would be wiped out, debt holders would become shareholders in the restructured firm taking care of the debt problem. In such a case customers would remain pretty much intact with few visible impacts. Only those that were also shareholderswould be impacted. Very similar to what the major airlines have done for years. A bit more complicated due to the various countries where the major holding companies are based. 

 

In the case of CCL rather unlikely the the debt holders would push for the pennies on the dollar they would get from liquidation, compared to the value of restructuring. 

 

It all depends upon the companies showing that they can run a profitable business post covid with or without the debt. With the debt means no restructuring needed, without the debt would mean restructuring and Wipeout of current shareholders. Considering who owns stock that would be pretty much a step of last resort. A liquidation type bk as Crystal and many other small cruise lines have gone through very unlikely.

Edited October 2, 2022 by ldtr

[caribill]

10 hours ago, LACruiser88 said:

Yesterday, I paid $6.09 for Premium at Costco.  Outrageous!

 

$2.86 at Costco near us.

[mnocket]

The bleeding hasn't stopped.  The market is making a nice rebound today.  NCLH & RCL are up a percentage point or so.  However, CCL continues to fall, now down about 2%.  I don't really understand this divergence between CCL and the other cruise line stocks.  Is CCL really seeing more serious problems than the other lines?

[Guest ldtr]

2 hours ago, mnocket said:

The bleeding hasn't stopped.  The market is making a nice rebound today.  NCLH & RCL are up a percentage point or so.  However, CCL continues to fall, now down about 2%.  I don't really understand this divergence between CCL and the other cruise line stocks.  Is CCL really seeing more serious problems than the other lines?

They are all in the same boat with very similar fundamentals. More a matter of reporting timing.

[NownZen]

3 hours ago, mnocket said:

The bleeding hasn't stopped.  The market is making a nice rebound today.  NCLH & RCL are up a percentage point or so.  However, CCL continues to fall, now down about 2%.  I don't really understand this divergence between CCL and the other cruise line stocks.  Is CCL really seeing more serious problems than the other lines?

Their very generous covid FCCs and the decreased occupancy had to hurt a lot. For the passengers they averaged something like $120/night each. That is a hard number to make money at. The covid expenses and quarantine  have to be coming down and that will free up rooms to be sold. They only needed another $30/night to make money.  The FCC expiration will also help that number. The cash flow should improve since there will be fewer free days.

 

Oceania's policy on covid is that you should have enough insurance to take care of any medical expenses or trip interruption so we cannot complain about Princess there.

[geocruiser]

6.85 USD−0.18 (2.56%)today

[wowzz]

10 hours ago, NownZen said:

Oceania's policy on covid is that you should have enough insurance to take care of any medical expenses or trip interruption so we cannot complain about Princess there.

The same as Princess in the UK. No insurance, no cruise.

[CalTexCruiser]

CCL up to $ 7.60 today

 

I already got my $ 100 OBC...should I sell (bought at $ 7 last Friday) and re-purchase later if I book another cruise?

 

I'm thinking this stock may sink under $ 5 at some point.  It's a "dog with fleas" as Gordon Gekko would say.

 

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by CalTexCruiser

[loge23]

20 hours ago, mnocket said:

The bleeding hasn't stopped.  The market is making a nice rebound today.  NCLH & RCL are up a percentage point or so.  However, CCL continues to fall, now down about 2%.  I don't really understand this divergence between CCL and the other cruise line stocks.  Is CCL really seeing more serious problems than the other lines?

As of Sept. 1, Truist estimates that Carnival holds $35 billion in debt, Royal Caribbean has $25 billion and Norwegian owes $14 billion. Respectively, the companies’ values in the stock market are about $11.01 billion, $11.18 billion and $5.61 billion. (from CNBC, 9/23/22)

[NownZen]

9 minutes ago, loge23 said:

As of Sept. 1, Truist estimates that Carnival holds $35 billion in debt, Royal Caribbean has $25 billion and Norwegian owes $14 billion. Respectively, the companies’ values in the stock market are about $11.01 billion, $11.18 billion and $5.61 billion. (from CNBC, 9/23/22)

I think the old story that if you owe the bank $10,000 you are in trouble but if you owe the bank $10 million they are in trouble (adjust for inflation) applies here. The liquidation value of Carnival is probably less than 10% of the debt so it would be a good idea to see if it can be made into a going concern. They are getting close and should be profitable in Q1 2023.

[mnocket]

The medics have arrived!  The bleeding has stopped.....  for now.

 

NCLH +12.8%

RCL +11.7%

CCL +11.3%

 

Market leaders on an up day.  These stocks are super crazy in an already crazy market.

[c-boy]

1 minute ago, mnocket said:

The medics have arrived!  The bleeding has stopped.....  for now.

 

NCLH +12.8%

RCL +11.7%

CCL +11.3%

 

Market leaders on an up day.  These stocks are super crazy in an already crazy market.

🙂 then 🙃 outcome 😊 

[NavyCruiser]

Amazing.

I bought 100 shares on 9/30, went online 10/3 to download my quarter end statement, emailed all 3 cruise lines with statement attached.

Received emailed from Princess within hours, with new invoice with $100 OBC included.

Thanks again, OP. 

[caribill]

The view from one stock analyst about CCL stock:

 

Since the announcement of the company's relaxed protocols in mid-August, aligning the company towards land-based vacation alternatives, booking volumes for all future sailings are considerably higher than strong 2019 levels.

 

Carnival added that third-quarter 2022 ended with $7.4 billion of liquidity, including cash and borrowings available under the company's revolving credit facility.

[NownZen]

34 minutes ago, caribill said:

The view from one stock analyst about CCL stock:

 

Since the announcement of the company's relaxed protocols in mid-August, aligning the company towards land-based vacation alternatives, booking volumes for all future sailings are considerably higher than strong 2019 levels.

 

Carnival added that third-quarter 2022 ended with $7.4 billion of liquidity, including cash and borrowings available under the company's revolving credit facility.

This quarter's results will be interesting as they should see more final payments coming in for 2023 and the FCCs going away will be good.  They should be at close to cash positive this quarter.

[caribill]

Tuesday CCL stock was the most active stock when looking at NYSE, Nasdaq, and Amex exchanges.

[geocruiser]

7.41 USD−0.36 (4.63%)today

[grandgeezer]

23 hours ago, mnocket said:

The medics have arrived!  The bleeding has stopped.....  for now.

 

NCLH +12.8%

RCL +11.7%

CCL +11.3%

 

Market leaders on an up day.  These stocks are super crazy in an already crazy market.

Medics must have left, down 4% and the day is still estly.

[CruzR887]

We bought 100 shares @ $6.90 on Monday. Emailed proof of purchase on Tuesday and today our $250 OBC is recorded on our onboard acct. We received an automatic email response immediately after submitting the benefit, but heard nothing about it being approved. 

[mnocket]

57 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Medics must have left, down 4% and the day is still estly.

LOL  Yeah, now down 6%.  

[geocruiser]

6.98 USD−0.45 (6.06%)today

[geocruiser]

6.32 USD−0.44 (6.43%)today