CCL Slows Ship Construction

[Eli_6]

1 hour ago, notscb said:

Curious, what's the major difference? I'd think that all being equal (havana), the newer ship would be the easy choice.

The Havana area on the Vista class (Vista, Pan, and Horizon) is really big and has its own bar, a pool, and two huge hot tubs.  The entire area is huge.  The one on the Mardi Gras, Celebration and Jubilee is on the side of the boat, small, and just has one small hot tub. Not even worth doing Havana area on that class of ships.  And we stayed in an Excel suite and the Loft 19 isn't that great either. 

[Joebucks]

5 hours ago, mz-s said:

 

For sure Sunshine is more marketable than Destiny would be at this point. And earns more. For example. But did it earn $250M more over the past decade since the overhaul? Only Carnival knows for sure. Me, I'd doubt it.

 

But still - look at say back in 2006. Carnival's latest ship was Liberty a ship basically the same as Destiny (a little larger but overall the same thing), and Royal was debuting the Oasis of the Seas. Which of those ships of similar age looks more modern today? No amount of freshing up will get the Liberty on the Oasis's level. The only way Carnival can compete without multiple new ships - which we already know isn't on their radar - is on price. And given their financial status they are positioned for a decade of hurt, and possibly bankruptcy.

 

This is only going to be more of an issue over the coming years and decades as Carnival's tonnage continues to age and its competitors (including up-and-coming entrants like MSC and Virgin) roll out brand new ships, or like NCL and RCL have more modern concepts to begin with.

 

People here may say "oh I like the smaller ships" but the bigger ships are cheaper for the lines to operate, and it seems that most guests prefer them as well in the entry level.

 

It's not always that we agree, but I think you nailed it here. Carnival ran the Pinnacle project and I believe was going to be the first to have the mega ships. They scrapped it after believing it just wouldn't work. If current builds are any indicator, they work. There's economies of scale, more upsell venues, and people generally want more to do. The few, loud, voices on the internet aren't as crucial as they think they are. 

 

If the competition has the bigger and newer ships, that will be tough for Carnival. I do think the Venezia experiment is an interesting one. What kind of interest could particular themes garner instead of mega ships?

[tidecat]

18 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

 

It's not always that we agree, but I think you nailed it here. Carnival ran the Pinnacle project and I believe was going to be the first to have the mega ships. They scrapped it after believing it just wouldn't work. If current builds are any indicator, they work. There's economies of scale, more upsell venues, and people generally want more to do. The few, loud, voices on the internet aren't as crucial as they think they are. 

Carnival got screwed by the change in the US Dollar relative to the Euro. That made the price per lower berth too high for Carnival. Had that not happened, Pinnacle certainly would have been built.

[BlerkOne]

2 hours ago, Lee Cruiser said:

Who are the "less efficient customers" that you are talking about and how does Carnival get rid of them?

The customer isn't always right, and frankly some should be fired. Some customers are more trouble than they are worth and I'll leave it at that.

[longhorn2004]

https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-ship-orderbook/

 

Carnival has more debt than Royal but at least they are paying less per ship.  Putting orders for in essence the same LNG ship with slight changes across the Carnival Family (buying in bulk) looks to have yielded lower per ship purchase costs.

[vwrestler171]

On 12/26/2022 at 1:22 PM, tidecat said:

$200 Million over 10 years, even allowing for around 100 days out of service (drydocks, etc.) is only $19 per person per day. I think the window to do that to the Spirit class has largely passed, but a $50-$75 Million renovation may still be viable. It also really makes sense only if you're not currently selling a high number of third or fourth passengers in a cabin, although I don't see a way to add more than 36-40 cabins to the Spirit class vessels.

They can add probably 15-20 cabins if they do away with the area on deck 3 that is just a walking/sitting area.  Gatsbys Garden on Miracle.  Just turn the rooms sideways and they will fit in to that space.

[Itried4498]

12 hours ago, mz-s said:

 

Refreshing the ships is just one part of it. As mentioned, it's not making a huge difference with Radiance sailings in terms of cabin prices - but onboard spend is I'm sure much higher vs. Victory since there are more opportunities for spending.

 

 

So in other words nothing new. Carnival is not going to leave markets unless as in Charleston, local pressure forces their hand. Even Mobile is staying open once Spirit makes its way back, and they're expanding operations in Norfolk. Yes eventually they will no longer have ships that fit under the bridges in Tampa and Jacksonville, but that's decades in the future. And maybe by then they will have built a new cruise terminal outside of the bridge, or built a new bridge, or whatever.

The “giveaway” prices on the Radiance and Navigator ended months ago.  They were bargains for most of this year, but - to use an appropriate cliche - that shipped sailed.  Given the capacity that was injected into SoCal immediately following COVID - Celebrity and especially Princess pulled out of their inaugural (in recent history) summer seasons at the last minute - the fact that it’s predominately a locals market and more sensitive to Covid safety than elsewhere in the nation, I’m not surprised things started slowly.

 

But most of those bargains are gone even with the continued capacity expansion.  Don’t be fooled - they advertised a $79 3-day cruise for BF, and $239 7-day… and literally had ONE option at those prices.

 

I’ve read that the Navigator is now RCL’s highest grossing weekend cruise ship, and wouldn’t be surprised if the Radiance is the same for Carnival… especially as it looks as if even more capacity will be added when the Costa by Carnival takes over many of the weekend runs.

[Itried4498]

1 hour ago, vwrestler171 said:

They can add probably 15-20 cabins if they do away with the area on deck 3 that is just a walking/sitting area.  Gatsbys Garden on Miracle.  Just turn the rooms sideways and they will fit in to that space.

If it wasn’t for the theater they probably would’ve.  Great space to relax but never occupied.

[cruisequeen4ever]

I’m happy to hear this as my DH and I were discussing how it doesn’t seem like it is prudent to be spending tons of money on new ships when there’s so much debt right now.