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News on the Westerdam


dillpickle48
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43 minutes ago, Level six said:

I just read that some people from Westerdam just landed in Netherlands and they were not quarantined.  

 

They are being "monitored" by local authorities.

Whatever that means in terms of effectivenes.

 

Containment policy is already failing (as expected)

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But containments leaks are happenning for several days now.

 

Stories of people  stuck in main land china returning to NYC via Indonesia and Toronto (two separate tickets, two passports, getting driven from Toronto to NYC) are around.

 

Chineese on business visits are told to stay in hotel and not come to offfice. But there is no control on wjat they do at hotel. what stores they go to, what restaurants they go to.

 

There are containment leaks and as we have seen in singapore once virus leaks out, it is no longer restricted to people who have visited china. You can pick it up by taking same taxi that infected person took it before you even if you were never in any contact.

 

People are focussed on China but real story of what we are likely to face (hope not) can be learned by following Singapore Straits Times web site few minutes everyday.

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1 hour ago, Betty in Cozumel said:

 

We are too.  We don't leave Cozumel until Wed Feb 26th.  Flying to Toronto to catch our Feb 27th flight to Tokyo.  I wish they'd just cancel and let us deal with all the other cancellations we have to make (airfare, hotels, etc)

Yes that is how we feel as well, would most likely still go if it was still going. Just wish to move on now and look for another holiday in the future. The uncertainty is the worst. 

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It seems like all the passengers should be tracked down and quarantined, and at this point I’m not sure they should be allowed on planes, considering how easily this virus is spread. I know it’s a monumental pain for everyone involved, but what else can you do?

 

Also, since by now everyone in the frigging world knows that folks with the virus can be asymptomatic and still quite contagious, shouldn’t there have been at least some precautions taken? Does anyone know if HAL instituted, at the very minimum, condition red, usually done for noroviruses, where guests are served and not allowed to touch anything in the Lido? Was anything done onboard while the ship cruised in circles for a week?

 

I also feel terrible for all the passengers hearing about this, now wondering if they’re carrying the virus, waiting for the next shoe to drop. I’m not sure if anyone should be printing up those special certificates commemorating the voyage just yet, no?

 

 

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According to early reports, there were a couple sick people on the ship, determined to not be the virus.  If that were true, and since they likely didn't have reliable testing, I think they should have kept everyone on the ship for 14 days since the last of symptoms, or since Taiwan.  That would have just been a couple more days to be on the safe side, to make sure no one was infected in the incubation phase.

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Everyone it seems is hanging their hats on 14 days. I wouldn't take that to the bank just yet. I have seen no data on the virus's ability to survive outside of a human host. Think of west nile. Containment in todays world of travel is a delusion. 

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20 minutes ago, old mike said:

Everyone it seems is hanging their hats on 14 days. I wouldn't take that to the bank just yet. I have seen no data on the virus's ability to survive outside of a human host. Think of west nile. Containment in todays world of travel is a delusion. 

 

 

There's a paucity of information about this Wuhan Novel Corona Virus because it's just too new. But... there is an analysis of data, of similar Corona Viruses, that was to be published in an upcoming textbook, but has instead been released in the interest of public health.  The scientists show that similar Corona Viruses can live outside the body on doorknobs, bedframes, elevator buttons, etc. (items made of plastic or metal) for up to 9 (nine!) days!  I believe that is why so many Asian countries are vigorously disinfecting, seemingly 24/7, as much as possible.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/02/09/scientists-predict-coronavirus-may-live-for-up-to-nine-days-on-surfaces/#1177e20a14e3

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24 minutes ago, old mike said:

Everyone it seems is hanging their hats on 14 days. I wouldn't take that to the bank just yet. I have seen no data on the virus's ability to survive outside of a human host. Think of west nile. Containment in todays world of travel is a delusion. 

 

14 days is the max incubation period, from what scientists can tell so far.  The virus can live up to 9 days at room temperature, on inanimate objects.

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1 hour ago, iancal said:

My guess is that the smart carriers will now be flagging and checking all ex Westerdam cruisers prior to allowing them to board the flight.  It is usually two or three flights for us.....eighteen hours.

 

KLM agrees:

 

"Following the woman's positive test, a number of passengers, including two Dutch citizens, were denied boarding for an Amsterdam-bound KLM flight departing from Kuala Lumpur, according to the Dutch foreign ministry.

The tourists who were kept from boarding KLM flight 810 are still in Malaysia, along with another group of Dutch citizens suspected to have had contact with the infected American woman.

Dutch RIVM National Institute for Public Health and the Environment estimated that 11 people were not allowed on the plane.

A number of Dutch citizens who were aboard the Westerdam have already returned to the Netherlands, where they will be monitored daily by local health authorities.

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/coronavirus-westerdam-cruise-ship-passengers-bumped-from-klm-flight-in-malaysia

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3 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

Everyone travelling by a commercial aircraft is known. Easy to find them.

 

Every Westerdam passenger.....every airline passenger....thousands from every airport.....cabs...motels....restaurants.....

 

I would not call this an easy "find"........

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9 minutes ago, Rowsby said:

 

Every Westerdam passenger.....every airline passenger....thousands from every airport.....cabs...motels....restaurants.....

 

I would not call this an easy "find"........

 

 

The disease has an incubation period during which the person is not fully infectious. Airport screening should identify those with obvious symptoms. Hope that it will be enough

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incubation_period

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15 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

 

The disease has an incubation period during which the person is not fully infectious. Airport screening should identify those with obvious symptoms. Hope that it will be enough

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incubation_period

 

It is other way around.

 

While not 100% confirmed, it is widely reported that this particular disease CAN BE infectious BEFORE symptoms becaome visible.

 

If true, this is exactly what makes this disease much more dangerous.

You can not screen just based on symptoms.

 

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37 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

Guys,

 

Be cool. At the moment, the latest  infection is small, and there is the likelihood that the spread will be neutralized by the governments.

 

Everyone travelling by a commercial aircraft is known. Easy to find them.

 

Not really.

Please follow Singapore situation. They are tiny, rich, resourceful, discplined, efficient, transparent, have temperatires over 80F every day. 

Spending 10 minutes a say reading web pages of Straits Time will educate one nuch better than all these other sites combined.

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14 minutes ago, hal2008 said:

 

It is other way around.

 

While not 100% confirmed, it is widely reported that this particular disease CAN BE infectious BEFORE symptoms becaome visible.

 

If true, this is exactly what makes this disease much more dangerous.

You can not screen just based on symptoms.

 

 

"Is it possible to contract COVID-19 from someone who is not showing symptoms?

 

Those with no symptoms are less likely to have nasal discharge or cough, and are hence less likely to transmit the virus. In truth, we suspect the actual risk to be very low."

 

https://www.gov.sg/article/infectious-disease-specialist-answers-questions-on-covid-19

 

The airlines should follow the East Asian example. Issue masks to passengers on the aircraft. Many of the infected returning from China did this. Did not infect others.

 

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9 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

"Is it possible to contract COVID-19 from someone who is not showing symptoms?

 

Those with no symptoms are less likely to have nasal discharge or cough, and are hence less likely to transmit the virus. In truth, we suspect the actual risk to be very low."

 

https://www.gov.sg/article/infectious-disease-specialist-answers-questions-on-covid-19

 

 

 

 

Risk is certainly lower due to less droplets being shade.

But significantly higher than zero

(as reported out of china)

 

Spreading of infection while not showing symptoms is the most significant factor about this disease that makes it so dangerous.

The second factor is this particular virus surviving on non-living surfaces for much longer duration than its earlier cousins.

The third factor is possible airborne transmission. This is yet to be widely confiirmed but suspected based on Hong Kong apartment building case.

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3 hours ago, BarbarianPaul said:

 

 

Also, since by now everyone in the frigging world knows that folks with the virus can be asymptomatic and still quite contagious, shouldn’t there have been at least some precautions taken?

 

 

 

 

Apparently, not everyone agrees.

Just notice responses here.

 

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Let's avoid panic by reviewing the situation. COVID 19 is a serious threat. It can by very infectious. 70K infected in China.

 

On the Diamond Princess, 10% of the people on board are infected. By a single passenger who was on board for only 5 days (Jan 20 to 25). Quarantine was declared after Feb 4, but was too late.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_(ship)#2020_COVID-19_cases

 

 

However, WHO has not yet declared a pandemic for COVID 19 (or for SARS) ...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#Severe_Acute_Respiratory_Syndrome_(SARS)

 

That's because the number of infected outside China/HK is very small. Only 2 have died outside China/HK. Most of the infected outside China/HK were returning from China/HK.

 

In the early days, returning travelers did infect others. Governments have acted quickly and successfully outside China/HK to stop the spread. There is an incubation period of up to two weeks during which the infected are not very infectious. Plenty of time to identify and test suspected cases.

 

The Westerdam situation is bad. The infected woman must have been self medicating to suppress the symptoms. But, she was discovered in Malaysia, and Westerdam pax are being monitored.

 

I have confidence that the situation will not get out of control (this time) as the governments are alert. The US Ambassador serves as an example of the pitfalls of early optimism.

 

What would be a pandemic? H1N1 had fatalities of 150k-550k. After 6 months, it suddenly declined and the pandemic was over.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

 

Our response must be to play defense until the disease burns itself out. That means genuine medical screening at embarkation. Full quarantine for vessels that have stopped at infected ports. Medical tests for all before and after disembarkation.

 

That said, let's avoid being alarmist. The experts and governments have a difficult job to do. Let's hope that lessons will be learned for the next time.

 

What does it mean for your travel plans? For seniors with medical conditions, you should err on the side of caution. COVID 19 will end. Though there's always another mutation waiting to seize the day.

 

Edited by HappyInVan
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