SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[TLCOhio]

9 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

It’s not the day traders you should concern yourself with, but rather the algos.

 

Interesting comment about the potential impacts of day traders.  Maybe a major factor?  But, I need to know more from Stumblefoot.  

 

Not sure I fully and properly understand "altos".  I looked up that word and it seems to mean "pain".  Tell me more how that fits into the overall situation.  Is it that we are suffering "pain" and suffering during this crazy financial period?  Help me learn and know more.   

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

[jpalbny]

Algorithmic traders - computer programs set to make certain trades automatically when a certain scenario occurs. They can snowball and have major effects on prices.

[TLCOhio]

12 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

There is, in my opinion, some belt tightening needed on the corporate level that does not impact the guest experience.  Aging of the customer base?  Not sure that makes a difference, but your analogy with GM is valid.  

 

Agree that most corporations and governmental units can use some serious "belt tightening" at many levels in their bloated organizations.  

 

As to the background for my comment on the "aging of the customer base", I was getting to the point that younger consumers these days do not have the same levels of loyalty to brands and institutions as those older have developed.  

 

Market research documents that those younger view things differently.  Just like in the job/career loyalties, those younger are much more willing to switch, change, etc.  Many of us "Baby Boomers" tend to stick longer with the brands and patterns that we have established over the years and decades.  Younger?  Different levels of willingness to switch, change, try something new, ignore past patterns, etc.

 

That "lack of loyalty" and "customer flexibility" makes for challenges as the cruise lines seek to return to some form of "normal" in the future.  For us as "seasoned citizens", our patterns and preferences are more established and predictable.  Those in their 20's, 30's, etc., however, view their buying patterns and loyalties very differently.  That's my understanding as to the generational differences and why as cruise companies reach out to future customers, their past brands do not mean as much.  Reactions?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic and historic location. Over 49,057 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

[TLCOhio]

26 minutes ago, jpalbny said:

Algorithmic traders - computer programs set to make certain trades automatically when a certain scenario occurs. They can snowball and have major effects on prices.

 

Presto!!  Now I get "it".  Yes, agree that these computer-driven trading tools can do weird things to the markets and force wilder swings in the stock values.  

 

News reports are out this morning about OPEC and their planned cuts to world-wide oil production.  That could impact cruise lines if and as fuel prices go up and the economy tightens or slumps downward to scare consumer confidence.  Breaking news?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

[highplanesdrifters]

12 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

It’s not the day traders you should concern yourself with, but rather the algos.

Exactly!

[RetiredandTravel]

Given the markets obsession with federal reserve policy there seems to be a strong negative correlation between US Treasury interest rates and stock index prices.   The two year note appears to me to be a decent proxy for future Fed policy at this point, in September the two year started at a 3.45 yield and peaked at 4.31 on 9/27.  The ten year went from 3.13 to 3.992 🙄over the same period.  On September 27 the 9 day RSI on the two year went over 90 indicating to me a severe short term over sold (in price) situation.  The ten year 9 day RSI peaked around 80 on 9/27, that indicates an  oversold condition but in my opinion not high enough to be actionable, but hey its ~4%.

 

I'm guessing the upcoming employment & inflation numbers will dictate whether we've peaked in interest rates (bottomed in stock prices?) or just had a short term bounce.  

 

Historical Fed Funds rates

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

 

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by RetiredandTravel

[TLCOhio]

34 minutes ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Given the markets obsession with federal reserve policy there seems to be a strong negative correlation between US Treasury interest rates and stock index prices. 

 

Appreciate these great comments and follow-ups from R&T and highplanesdrifters.  Yes, understanding the stock and world markets takes some serious attention and patience.  It's not easy to follow and fully comprehend from my perspective. 

 

On fuel costs, I had to fill up this am and got caught in the price run-up.  Price was $3.99.9 per gallon.  My sense is that prices will go up higher and HIGHER.  Understand in California and for many in the west, those pump prices are much higher.  Clearly cruise ships require lots and LOTS of fuel.  Some of that pricing is hedged, while others are not ideally positioned to absorb these rising costs.  Plus, it will also impact airline costs, etc.  

 

From the New York Times this morning, they had this headline: “OPEC and Russia agree to cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day” with these highlights: “OPEC and its allies, including Russia, approved a two million barrel-a-day cut in oil production on Wednesday, its first large reduction in output since the early days of the pandemic.   The gathering of the group, known as OPEC Plus, was the first to be held in person since early 2020. The decision for oil officials to gather in Vienna signaled an intention to make a strong statement to energy markets about the group’s cohesion and its willingness to act quickly to defend prices, analysts say.”

 

This situation gets more complicated when you consider the direct and indirect impacts as they involve the Ukraine war.  Right or wrong?

 

Full story at:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/05/business/economy-news-inflation-stocks

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Visuals, details from two visits in a city and nearby with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 47,051 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

[TLCOhio]

If I were the CEO of Royal Caribbean, I would not rate reading today's news as being positive and uplifting.  Also, their RCL stock is down 4.22% as the clock approaches noon.     

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “WTO Sees Sharp Slowdown in Global Trade, Pointing to Possible Recession, Lower Inflation" with this sub-headline: "Slowing demand in the West and the travails of the Chinese economy are weighing on imports and exports of goods.”

 

Here are a couple of their story highlights: “World trade in goods is set to slow sharply next year, possibly easing high inflation but raising the risk of a global recession, a new forecast shows.  Surging energy costs and rising interest rates are weakening household demand across the globe, a dynamic that could cause exports and imports to increase by just 1% in 2023, the World Trade Organization said Wednesday. That is down from a previous forecast of 3.4%.”

 

Also, this item: “The global economy faces a multipronged crisis,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, secretary-general of the WTO, the Geneva-based body responsible for enforcing the rules that govern global trade. “The picture for 2023 has darkened considerably.”

 

Too much "doom and gloom" or just being realistic?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/sharp-slowdown-in-global-trade-points-to-possible-recession-lower-inflation-11664964002?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 32,611 views.  Many pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

[Stumblefoot]

3 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

…or just had a short term bounce.  

This is what I believe.  Certainly expect more rip your head off bounces higher, now and then, but the overall trend is lower for the time being.

[RetiredandTravel]

22 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

This is what I believe.  Certainly expect more rip your head off bounces higher, now and then, but the overall trend is lower for the time being.

 

Definitely the trend.  The "Don't fight the tape" lesson was a very painful one for me.  Unfortunately Its also when I discovered my "Not always right but never in doubt" trait.

 

 

 

 

[TLCOhio]

21 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

I discovered my "Not always right but never in doubt" trait.

 

Appreciate this great, honest comment and follow-up from R&T.  Yes, "never in doubt" means you are very confident and forward-looking!!  Maybe good?    

 

From this below-connected web financial review this morning, they had this headline: “Stock Market Sell-Off: Is Carnival a Buy?” with these highlights: “Major indexes have slipped into bear territory. And many leaders in their industries have fallen, too. Carnival, the world's biggest cruise operator, is an example. But Carnival's poor performance isn't only recent. The stock actually has been on the decline for a good part of the year -- and now has lost 61% year to date. There's also no doubt about travelers' desire to set sail once again. Occupancy reached almost 90% for the company's August cruises. And booking volumes for future sailings are higher than pre-pandemic levels. Carnival even expects occupancy to reach historical levels as of next year."  

 

Here is more: "Inflation and supply chain problems also are weighing on Carnival. What's most concerning right now is Carnival's debt level. The company's long-term debt totals more than $28 billion.  Right now, the stock is trading at 0.9 times sales. In pre-pandemic days, Carnival stock traded at two to three times sales.  The big question is can Carnival get back to its pre-pandemic financial health -- and valuation?   For example, since 2019, it's replaced smaller, less efficient ships with nine larger, more efficient ones. These ships will result in a 6% decrease in unit costs linked to ship operations. But, considering Carnival's high level of debt and the current economic environment, progress will take time. Maybe even a very long time.”

 

Interesting analysis that can, in part, apply to consider for Royal Caribbean and Norwegian stocks.  Right?  The stock value recovery will happen, but when?  How much patience and time will investors provide compared to other, maybe better stock options?

 

Right now, the overall market as shown by the S&P 500 is down over 1.8%.  All of the cruise stocks are down by more.  Carnival is down by 3.6% at 11:08 am.  More later.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/07/stock-market-sell-off-is-carnival-a-buy/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 31,537 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, below are their charts for the three major cruise companies and their value performance over the most recent five days.  

 

Clearly, the stock market had a major drop today as seen by the S&P 500 going down 2.80%.  Royal Caribbean only dropped down .95% today, while the reductions for Carnival and Norwegian were above that overall market lowering.  Why the difference and look of the RCL charts versus the other stocks for this past week?  For this past week, Carnival took the biggest hits/downward swings.  Most weeks, these three cruise stock more closely match each other with their fluctuations over the five-day period.  

 

Also for comparison is this past week's chart for the wider S&P 500 index.  Reactions and predictions for next week and later this month?  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

 

 

 

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, they had this major headline: “Dow Falls More Than 600 Points Following Jobs Report" with this sub-headline: "Lower unemployment rate seen as evidence the Fed isn’t near finished raising rates.”

 

Here are a few of their analysis and reporting highlights: “U.S. stocks slid Friday after a relatively strong jobs report, capping a roller-coaster week in which investors built up hopes for easier monetary policy—only to then give them up again.The past few days were a wild stretch for   markets, as investors grappled to understand competing data about where the economy is headed, and what that might mean for the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool inflation.”

 

Does this make sense?  Seem logical?  How would you like to be a cruise company CEO or CFO following these market and economic ups-and-downs?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-10-07-2022-11665139154?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 21,266 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

[crusinbanjo]

20 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

From the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, they had this major headline: “Dow Falls More Than 600 Points Following Jobs Report" with this sub-headline: "Lower unemployment rate seen as evidence the Fed isn’t near finished raising rates.”

 

Here are a few of their analysis and reporting highlights: “U.S. stocks slid Friday after a relatively strong jobs report, capping a roller-coaster week in which investors built up hopes for easier monetary policy—only to then give them up again.The past few days were a wild stretch for   markets, as investors grappled to understand competing data about where the economy is headed, and what that might mean for the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool inflation.”

 

Does this make sense?  Seem logical?  How would you like to be a cruise company CEO or CFO following these market and economic ups-and-downs?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-10-07-2022-11665139154?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 21,266 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

I would definitely not want to be in their shoes. With the economic issues all around, right after Covid, many corporate futures look bleak indeed.  Hopefully SS and many other cruise lines survive and prosper. My feeling is that 2023 will see a start of a shake out in the cruise industry, (as well as many other industries).   Hopefully SS comes out the other end of all this in better position.

[saminina]

Exciting news from CCL coming this week....or, next week.

[d9704011]

12 hours ago, saminina said:

Exciting news from CCL coming this week....or, next week.

Could even be tomorrow....

[TLCOhio]

17 hours ago, saminina said:

Exciting news from CCL coming this week....or, next week.

 

Appreciate this prediction and follow-up from d9704011 and saminina.   But, do not leave us in too much suspense!!!  

 

Any hints or guesses for what is expected and/or coming?  Is it something Carnival will be offering with their cruises?  A new routing not offered previously?  Or, more of a financial "thing"?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Summer 2019 Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

[TLCOhio]

On 10/8/2022 at 2:25 PM, crusinbanjo said:

I would definitely not want to be in their shoes. With the economic issues all around, right after Covid, many corporate futures look bleak indeed.  Hopefully SS and many other cruise lines survive and prosper. My feeling is that 2023 will see a start of a shake out in the cruise industry, (as well as many other industries).   Hopefully SS comes out the other end of all this in better position.

 

Agree with these wise comments and follow-up from Mr. Banjo as to the coming "shake-out" that will be affecting many industries.  As we consider the rising value of the dollar versus many other currencies, that challenges cruise lines hoping for those from Europe and other areas to come here, sail from Florida ports, etc.    

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “A Jittery Stock Market Heads Into Earnings Season” with these highlights: “A stock market fixated on the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation is about to see how rapidly rising interest rates have affected companies’ bottom lines.  The S&P 500 has fallen 24% in 2022 as the central bank ratchets up rates and investors attempt to reassess stock valuations and the durability of corporate profits. The third-quarter earnings season that kicks off in earnest this week will give analysts the broadest look yet at how business has held up as costs continue to rise, higher rates threaten demand and a strong dollar squeezes overseas income.”

 

Those rising costs for fuel, staff, food, air flights, etc., ALL are challenging factors that the cruise company CEO's and CFO's must navigate and consider.  

 

Still nothing early this morning for Carnival.  Looking forward to learning more.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-jittery-stock-market-heads-into-earnings-season-11665258248

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Early 2020, many visuals and details from New Zealand/South Pacific in going from Auckland to French Polynesia.  This includes Bora Bora, Fiji, NZ experiences, etc:  Live/blog;

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2735732-live-terryohio-“new”-regatta-south-pacificnz-pix’s/

[TLCOhio]

Not a good morning for the cruise stocks.  Royal Caribbean down to $41.13.  That's a negative 5.67% decline.  Carnival dropping to $6.245, a fall of negative 7.62%.  Norwegian off 8.8% at 12:30 pm today.  The overall S&P500 is only down 1.06%.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

[TLCOhio]

On 10/8/2022 at 4:35 PM, saminina said:

Exciting news from CCL coming this week....or, next week.

 

Still looking and checking for that big, exciting news related to Carnival.  Not sure what it will be and when.    

 

From the Forbes business publication this morning, they had this headline: “What’s Next For Carnival Stock After Weaker Than Expected Third Quarter?” with these highlights: “Carnival, the largest cruise line operator, has seen its stock price decline by close to 33% over the last month (about 21 trading days) considerably underperforming the S&P 500, which was down by about 9% over the same period. While the broader markets have been hit by the Fed’s continued rate hikes and concerns about the U.S. economy, Carnival stock took a bigger hit. Now Carnival is actually witnessing pretty strong demand growth following the easing of Covid-19 restrictions. Over Q3 occupancy stood at a solid 84%. The company also said that booking volumes for its future sailings were meaningfully higher than pre-pandemic levels. Investors are focusing a lot on Carnival’s profitability and cashflows. The company is one of the most indebted players in the cruising business, with total debt standing at $34 billion. Rising interest rates and a slower-than-expected recovery in profitability could make it difficult for the company to pay down debt.”

 

Here is more from their review and analysis: "Going by historical performance, there is a roughly equal chance of a rise or decline in CCL stock over the next month. Out of 37 instances in the last 10 years that CCL stock saw a twenty-one-day decline of 33% or more, 20 of them resulted in CCL stock rising over the subsequent one-month period. This historical pattern reflects 20 out of 37, or about a 54% chance of a rise in CCL stock over the coming month, implying that the stock may not be a particularly attractive buy for the near term."

 

As the wheel of the roulette table turns, are you ready to place your bets?  How large of a wager?  With what level of confidence?

 

As of noon today, these cruise ship stocks are just down a little.  At the opening this morning, they dropped significantly, but then recovered later this am.  Things seem "fluid and flexible" with the markets.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2022/10/11/whats-next-for-carnival-stock-after-weaker-than-expected-third-quarter/?sh=4ec83040598f

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 255,363 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[rkacruiser]

4 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

As of noon today, these cruise ship stocks are just down a little.  At the opening this morning, they dropped significantly, but then recovered later this am.  Things seem "fluid and flexible" with the markets.

 

The Market closed with CCL up slightly with RCL and NCLH both negative.  "Fluid and flexible" is an understatement!

 

4 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

As the wheel of the roulette table turns, are you ready to place your bets?  How large of a wager?  With what level of confidence?

 

No "new bets", but, am not selling any shares in either of my two pots of CCL.  My intention remains to sell the smaller pot before the end of the year for tax loss harvesting reasons.  But, it is my intention to buy those shares back once the Wash Rules are satisfied.  

[RetiredandTravel]

NCLH upgraded at UBS others mentioned

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/norwegian-cruise-lines-stock-upgrade-51665582559

[TLCOhio]

5 minutes ago, RetiredandTravel said:

NCLH upgraded at UBS others mentioned

https://www.barrons.com/articles/norwegian-cruise-lines-stock-upgrade-51665582559

 

Appreciate the excellent sharing and follow-up from R&T with this article from Barron's.  

 

From the sister publication of the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise Lines Stock Gets an Upgrade. UBS Is Upbeat on the Sector.” 

 

Early this morning, trading has Norwegian up 4.0% at  10:50 am today and the other two cruise lines are seeing an uptick.  Will it last?  Driven by this positive media posting?

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights: “Upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, citing a 'significant improvement' in bookings.  Norwegian told investors last week that occupancy levels would be around 82% in the third quarter, up from 65% in the second quarter.  The UBS team is now overweight on the cruise sector. Royal Caribbean Group is its favorite stock in the group because occupancy on its cruises is bouncing back more strongly following the pandemic and because prices for cruises booked both for the second half of 2022 and 2023 are at record levels.”

 

However, on Royal Caribbean, they noted: "They see a risk that the stock will lag behind its rivals given the strength of the dollar. The cruise line has a greater exposure to European passengers, UBS said."

 

Also, this insight/comment: "Cruise operators are finally easing Covid restrictions, a sign the sector’s stop-start recovery may be about to accelerate."

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/norwegian-cruise-lines-stock-upgrade-51665582559?noredirect=y

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 245,089 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's in late September, they had this headline: “Norwegian’s Luxury Offerings Make the Stock a Buy” with these interesting highlights: “What sets Norwegian apart from its competitors is the company’s luxury offerings.  Luxury accounts for about a third of Norwegian’s business, compared with about 10% of Royal Caribbean and under 5% of Carnival.  Luxury cruising also gives Norwegian additional pricing power—something most cruise lines continue to lack in the wake of Covid-19 halts.”

 

Clearly Silversea is that major luxury segment for Royal Caribbean.  That digging down into the luxury segments versus the more mass-market brands could be an insightful ways to compare these three cruise companies and how their market trends move.  Good theory to watch?  Does that mean Silversea can be more aggressive in upping their prices?  Reactions?

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/norwegian-cruise-stock-upgrade-51663677110?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D54633612909599303722862007499480498454|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1665586431

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 238,605 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

[RetiredandTravel]

I think Robin Farley, the UBS analyst is highly regarded (#2 down)

 

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1nwh5jp639xs5/The-All-America-Research-Team-The-Hall-of-Famers