Did you miss the boat?

[MisterBill99]

15 hours ago, Daniel A said:

I'm in Northern Westchester.  Just signed up for my first Oceania scheduled for July 9.  NYC R/T Bermuda.

 

I'm also in Northern Westchester! I did the 10 night Bermuda (which also included Newport, Portland and Halifax) sailing a couple of years ago and really enjoyed it. Nice to be able to take an Uber to the port. And we loved Oceania, especially the food.

 

Feel free to email me at my screen name here at gmail dotcom so we can figure out how close we are to each other. 

[Hawaiidan]

On 11/25/2020 at 11:58 AM, GeorgesGal said:

I took the chance and WON!

Donna

even if you bought at 17....its now pushing 26 !!!    Like 50% growth.   Wow is right

[Hawaiidan]

On 11/26/2020 at 10:17 AM, Daniel A said:

After my dismal investment in Carnival, She Who Must Be Obeyed forbade me from buying that $7 stock.  😭 

Its over 25 now......a lousy  300+ %.....

[pinotlover]

7 hours ago, Hawaiidan said:

Its over 25 now......a lousy  300+ %.....

I don’t give stock market advice in general. I have been blessed having done well over my lifetime.

 

The motto I live by and learned in my MBA classes at Boston University is:

Bears and Bulls normally make money, it’s the Pigs that lose. I rarely hesitate in taking a nice profit and moving on. With NCLH stock now may well be a great time to take the profits and do so.
 

If the stock isn’t a true investment, but a play toy for possible future OBC, then that is a separate decision. Consider which may go first as the payments come due on all the borrowed money,  a stock dividend to all shareholders or an OBC to cruisers. Which supports the stock price the most?

[Hawaiidan]

1 hour ago, pinotlover said:

I don’t give stock market advice in general. I have been blessed having done well over my lifetime.

 

The motto I live by and learned in my MBA classes at Boston University is:

Bears and Bulls normally make money, it’s the Pigs that lose. I rarely hesitate in taking a nice profit and moving on. With NCLH stock now may well be a great time to take the profits and do so.
 

If the stock isn’t a true investment, but a play toy for possible future OBC, then that is a separate decision. Consider which may go first as the payments come due on all the borrowed money,  a stock dividend to all shareholders or an OBC to cruisers. Which supports the stock price the most?

 for me it is a play toy.....for a few hundred bucks  I GET 250  for my next cruise and when I do  I will cash out netting over a a grand.    I have been investing is solid div pay blue chips and that is what allows me to cruise and travel...  I suspect many on this site are doing similar..... All my investments are  secondary to any funds for day to day living and retirement. ( beer money)....  So I can afford to gain or loose ..... Under standing the market and knowing it is manipulated and emotional is an important first step...... It is a game some enjoy and can profit from

[clo]

2 hours ago, pinotlover said:

If the stock isn’t a true investment, but a play toy for possible future OBC, then that is a separate decision.

We did that with my husband's former employer going public for the second time. It's "play money."  Our 'real' money is in IRA's and other diverse investments. It's serious money and we don't risk it any more than the system works.

[pinotlover]

Dan;

 

You May or may not GET the OBC at the time you sail. Any future dividends or programs can be adjusted at anytime. Just look at the Loyalty Program.

 

Best of Luck and congratulations on a good stock pick, to date.

[Hawaiidan]

3 hours ago, pinotlover said:

Dan;

 

You May or may not GET the OBC at the time you sail. Any future dividends or programs can be adjusted at anytime. Just look at the Loyalty Program.

 

Best of Luck and congratulations on a good stock pick, to date.

Well several takes....even if I do not get ANY obc  I still will have  well over 100% profit..... and even if the stock crashes, owing to a stop-loss in place, I will not loose any money.   Been a player for 20 years.....  its put me on a LOT of cruises and vacations I could never ever have afforded..    Its a game, no more no less some times you winsome  , sometimes you loose some...   However, if you do not play you will never can win.  Money should never be treated as a possession..it is tool to use.

Thanks trooper...... I heed your advice.   buy during disaster.... sell during elation. 

[clo]

11 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

Its a game, no more no less some times you winsome  , sometimes you loose some...   However, if you do not play you will never can win. 

No, it's not. Unless you're a 'trust fund baby.' Our IRA and other monies are there to support us til the end.  We don't "play" with it. My husband, with a bachelor's in accounting and an MBA in finance, has a favorite word: compounding. We came along too early for Roth's so 90% of the IRA is taxable. Maybe you don't know what that means but it means that we've had that much gain. It's not a game.

[ORV]

5 minutes ago, clo said:

No, it's not. Unless you're a 'trust fund baby.' Our IRA and other monies are there to support us til the end.  We don't "play" with it. My husband, with a bachelor's in accounting and an MBA in finance, has a favorite word: compounding. We came along too early for Roth's so 90% of the IRA is taxable. Maybe you don't know what that means but it means that we've had that much gain. It's not a game.

Yeah, but you're much smarter than the average person, or at least that the way it seems from your posts. 

[clo]

4 minutes ago, ORV said:

Yeah, but you're much smarter than the average person, or at least that the way it seems from your posts. 

My husband is very frugal, not cheap, frugal. We never had more than a middle class income but we always lived below our means. We actually enjoy educating ourselves about money. Suze Orman used to be our favorite Saturday night entertainment 🙂 And we have a financial adviser we meet with at least once a year to make sure we're still on track. And PS thanks for the compliment 🙂

[ORV]

3 minutes ago, clo said:

My husband is very frugal, not cheap, frugal. We never had more than a middle class income but we always lived below our means. We actually enjoy educating ourselves about money. Suze Orman used to be our favorite Saturday night entertainment 🙂 And we have a financial adviser we meet with at least once a year to make sure we're still on track. And PS thanks for the compliment 🙂

What I hope you aren't missing is that most of the people on this board are fairly knowledgeable about money and investing, or they wouldn't be cruising on Oceania. 

[clo]

2 minutes ago, ORV said:

What I hope you aren't missing is that most of the people on this board are fairly knowledgeable about money and investing, or they wouldn't be cruising on Oceania. 

Absolutely. I was specifically addressing one person. And also hoping that perhaps one other person would say, 'hmm, maybe I shouldn't buy cruise line stocks :)' PS: We're looking at a Silversea cruise!

[Hawaiidan]

51 minutes ago, clo said:

No, it's not. Unless you're a 'trust fund baby.' Our IRA and other monies are there to support us til the end.  We don't "play" with it. My husband, with a bachelor's in accounting and an MBA in finance, has a favorite word: compounding. We came along too early for Roth's so 90% of the IRA is taxable. Maybe you don't know what that means but it means that we've had that much gain. It's not a game.

Well it is really a game and to win you have to treat it  like that.... in reality you can not get emotional. 

 

And I would caution the average person  to NEVER invest in cruise line or  leisure time stock.    You buy them and hold them for short periods as determined by the public emotion.    It has little to do with a companies bottom line  but what people think it is....   And no I am not a trust fund baby..... worked 2 to 3 jobs at a time  70-100 hours a week for 45 years....hard earned  I would never pay some 3 rd party to tell me what I should do... when it is not that hard to determine yourself from your personal experience....   I dumped IRA and Mutual s back in 2008.... BUT...... its a personal decision because even with compounding ( which is the safe course ) you have to take a risk based on your personal knowledge of what it is your investing in.  I only buy single issue stock that pays dividends..... Stocks of  products I use and have used for years....   If you can not do that, then stay out

[clo]

1 minute ago, Hawaiidan said:

I would never pay some 3 rd party to tell me what I should do... when it is not that hard to determine yourself from your personal experience....   

We don't pay him. He works for the company that manages the fund(s). Thanks for clarifying your earlier comments.

 

One thing I didn't mention is that we're on solid ground to pay what seems like outrageous $$$ for senior/assisted living. We have an in-law who pays $100k/yr. So as we have advised others "we can have anything we want but not everything we want."  Cruise-related - lol - we're looking at a Silversea cruise that I thought had a $1k deposit. But that's for sailing in 2021 and we're only interested in 2022. And that deposit is 25%. No way. So our nice SS rep is going to the powers that be and see what he can do. 

[Smokeyham]

Given that the shares were reliably trading around $50+ for quite a period prior to the collapse, and given that there is a likely rebound in cruising once a vaccine has been widely accepted, then this seems like a reasonable investment, even with the price now having risen to ~$26/share.

If you are looking for information about how to apply for the OBC if you own 100+ NCL shares, I provided instructions in this post.  I have also attached the current (as of December, 2020) form to request OBC.

NCL Oceania Shareholder Benefit OBC Request form 2020-12.pdf

[Paulchili]

56 minutes ago, clo said:

PS: We're looking at a Silversea cruise!

Get ready for a very formal affair - at least it used to be. Other than that they are fine.

[clo]

17 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

Get ready for a very formal affair - at least it used to be. Other than that they are fine.

Oh, it's an "expedition" cruise to the Galapagos. Only 100 pax and not formal at all. But thanks for the advice for any future things. We're always quite destination oriented and that certain is 🙂

[GeorgesGal]

On 12/3/2020 at 1:35 PM, Hawaiidan said:

even if you bought at 17....its now pushing 26 !!!    Like 50% growth.   Wow is right

46.81% per my account today!!  Best return on an investment I've ever made and in such a short period of time.  Thanks, again, Hawaiian!!!

Stay healthy!

Donna

[Hawaiidan]

3 hours ago, Smokeyham said:

Given that the shares were reliably trading around $50+ for quite a period prior to the collapse, and given that there is a likely rebound in cruising once a vaccine has been widely accepted, then this seems like a reasonable investment, even with the price now having risen to ~$26/share.

If you are looking for information about how to apply for the OBC if you own 100+ NCL shares, I provided instructions in this post.  I have also attached the current (as of December, 2020) form to request OBC.

NCL Oceania Shareholder Benefit OBC Request form 2020-12.pdf 259.4 kB · 0 downloads

Be careful....do not look at it as an investment for long term... These are short term bets based on as you say past history and your  next travel plans.    So  buy the stock as you would a poker chip...in a crap game betting on the "come"   Let it ride then fold the day you deparrt, taking the cruise and getting the OBC   on top of your winnings.......    Sit back and wait for the next disaster to buy...   It is not an "Investment" per se....  Short term.... set a reasonable amount you want in return.... ride the wave and get off before it breaks  Things run in cycles.... believe that

[clo]

1 hour ago, Hawaiidan said:

Be careful....do not look at it as an investment for long term... These are short term bets based on as you say past history and your  next travel plans.    So  buy the stock as you would a poker chip...in a crap game betting on the "come"   Let it ride then fold the day you deparrt, taking the cruise and getting the OBC   on top of your winnings.......    Sit back and wait for the next disaster to buy...   It is not an "Investment" per se....  Short term.... set a reasonable amount you want in return.... ride the wave and get off before it breaks  Things run in cycles.... believe that

Thanks. Good advice. Also I'm guessing that one wouldn't use a life-altering amount of money in this 'game.'

[Hawaiidan]

1 hour ago, clo said:

Thanks. Good advice. Also I'm guessing that one wouldn't use a life-altering amount of money in this 'game.'

No...you never buy any more than the min required....   Dont sink 10 to 30 K into is because all you want is the OBC.   Growth is gravy.    Some here,  in a week have made $800.00 on their 1700 of stock purchase    and add the 250 and you have $1050.... to spend and get back your original $1700 !!!  they doubled their money !!! 

 

  Now ,suppose you bought at say 8 in March ( 9 months ago).  As of Dec 4 your $800 is now worth$ 2600 and  you still get 250 OBC on top of that !!! for a  total of $1800 +250=$ 2050 And get back your 800 on top.    BUT, say your cruising in October and hold the stock till departure date.... and it climbs back to 50-56 a share from sheer excitement ( where it was 10 months ago)..... by then..  DUMP it and sit back and smile.... do not push any longer than you need to get the OBC.   

 

 If there is a big tragedy... forget the OBC and set a stop loss with your broker so you will not loose your original investment $$$ as a safety valve.  Set the stop loss at what ever level you want. so you still make say a min of $1000.    

 

 Thats  a profit  of$4200  if at bought at 8 and   $3300 if bought at 17....+ the  250!!!!       So between  $4450. and 3550 in your pocket  for YOU after you get back your original investment...................   

 BUT do not be tempted to buy and hold for any longer than necessary..... and  do not buy more till people are crying and clutching their pearls.   Its a target of opportunity now... I am no stock guru.... this is just basic logic/observation.   good luck.....

[clo]

3 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

 BUT do not be tempted to buy and hold for any longer than necessary.

What about capital gains tax, short vs. long term?

[Hawaiidan]

17 minutes ago, clo said:

What about capital gains tax, short vs. long term?

See your CPA.... but  profits gained from less than 12 month hold are  added to your regualr income tax level...  Held longer than 12 mo is capital gains  at less.........  BUT as J P Morgan once said.... no one ever went broke from paying capital gains on ones profit !!!!!  No matter how you slice it its ALL gravy  even after uncle Joe sucks in his share....

[clo]

5 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

See your CPA.... but  profits gained from less than 12 month hold are  added to your regualr income tax level...  Held longer than 12 mo is capital gains  at less.........  BUT as J P Morgan once said.... no one ever went broke from paying capital gains on ones profit !!!!!  No matter how you slice it its ALL gravy  even after uncle Joe sucks in his share....

Yep. Bob - who's not a CPA - has a favorite expression: "If you pay more taxes than you thought you would then you made more money than you thought you would." BTW, we're glad to pay taxes...but not more than we need to.