Up dated potential Oceania Cruise Start Dates:

[GICNJC]

As you may be aware, NCL is sending all non essential crew back home that have been assembling for the past few months.  Speculation is NCL will require all staff to be vaccinated prior to rehiring.  This will no dought effect Oceania's Cruise Start Dates.

 

I posted back at the begining January the following suggested start dates which I now believe are not valid.

 

New Year Guess to Sail Start to Oceania Ships - Oceania Cruises - Cruise Critic Community

 

There are a number of reasons why, but the most obovious are:

- new strains of COVID, currently 4, and the experts including CDC are suggesting that many more will show up.

- while vacinations are occuring, the prevelance of vaccine shortages world wide will effect where ships can go.  Canada, where I reside, is not expecting to have 50% of the population vaccinated until the end of September.

- At this point no childern under 16 are being vaccinated (althought Oceania rarely as childern other than Alaska voyages)

- Many countries with Oceania destinations are locking down even tighter than ever before.

-  Barrons Market Research analyst states US Cruises are not likely to resume until the fourth quarter or early 2022

- It takes a minimum of 90 days for Oceania Ships to get back into service (at limited capacity) to meet the CDC's Framework for Contitional Sailing Order for Cruise Ships.

- No anticipated change to PVSA (passenger ship equilivant to Jones Act)

- Only Regatta has started its process for CDC approval to Sail.  It has not yet attempted any Crew or non paying Passenger test cruises.

- Oceania appears to not want to have the other five ships to go through the CDC process as they are heeping those ships overseas.

- Expectation that for the other five ships, Oceania will wait fot the Contitional Sail Order to lapse as most sailings exceed 7 days.  (It is possible the Conditional Sail Order will be extended unless the pandemic is seriously under control)

 

If I were management of Oceania, I would take the few months we have to get all the ships CDC approval to sail in case the Order is extended.

 

Updated first possible sail dates:

RIVIERA - November 7

INSIGNIA - October 31

NAUTICA - November 2

SIRENA - November 11

MARINA - November 2

 

NAUTICA does not port (currently and for the last few years) in the USA.  As such is not subject to the CDC rules, but is for other countries it visits.

I suspect the European, Baltic, and Middle East countries will not open this summer.  Suggested start November 2nd.

 

These are guesses base on the information (and guesses) collected from various sources.  I really hope we are back to sailing sooner than those listed above.

 

 

[pinotlover]

Not wanting to take chances, I highly doubt the Insignia will sale before the 22 ATW. I likewise expect Oceania will announce, just prior to final payment, that Embarkment has been moved out of US water, and US ports have been eliminated. Don’t see them risking the entire cruise on the whimsical feelings of the CDC.

[Aloha 1]

1 hour ago, GICNJC said:

As you may be aware, NCL is sending all non essential crew back home that have been assembling for the past few months.  Speculation is NCL will require all staff to be vaccinated prior to rehiring.  This will no dought effect Oceania's Cruise Start Dates.

 

I posted back at the begining January the following suggested start dates which I now believe are not valid.

 

New Year Guess to Sail Start to Oceania Ships - Oceania Cruises - Cruise Critic Community

 

There are a number of reasons why, but the most obovious are:

- new strains of COVID, currently 4, and the experts including CDC are suggesting that many more will show up.

- while vacinations are occuring, the prevelance of vaccine shortages world wide will effect where ships can go.  Canada, where I reside, is not expecting to have 50% of the population vaccinated until the end of September.

- At this point no childern under 16 are being vaccinated (althought Oceania rarely as childern other than Alaska voyages)

- Many countries with Oceania destinations are locking down even tighter than ever before.

-  Barrons Market Research analyst states US Cruises are not likely to resume until the fourth quarter or early 2022

- It takes a minimum of 90 days for Oceania Ships to get back into service (at limited capacity) to meet the CDC's Framework for Contitional Sailing Order for Cruise Ships.

- No anticipated change to PVSA (passenger ship equilivant to Jones Act)

- Only Regatta has started its process for CDC approval to Sail.  It has not yet attempted any Crew or non paying Passenger test cruises.

- Oceania appears to not want to have the other five ships to go through the CDC process as they are heeping those ships overseas.

- Expectation that for the other five ships, Oceania will wait fot the Contitional Sail Order to lapse as most sailings exceed 7 days.  (It is possible the Conditional Sail Order will be extended unless the pandemic is seriously under control)

 

If I were management of Oceania, I would take the few months we have to get all the ships CDC approval to sail in case the Order is extended.

 

Updated first possible sail dates:

RIVIERA - November 7

INSIGNIA - October 31

NAUTICA - November 2

SIRENA - November 11

MARINA - November 2

 

NAUTICA does not port (currently and for the last few years) in the USA.  As such is not subject to the CDC rules, but is for other countries it visits.

I suspect the European, Baltic, and Middle East countries will not open this summer.  Suggested start November 2nd.

 

These are guesses base on the information (and guesses) collected from various sources.  I really hope we are back to sailing sooner than those listed above.

 

 

So you're basing these dates on the assumption they need to comply with CDC orders?? Not if they are kept out of US waters, which most of O's ships are.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Aloha 1

[Tranquility Base]

1 hour ago, pinotlover said:

I likewise expect Oceania will announce, just prior to final payment, that Embarkment has been moved out of US water, and US ports have been eliminated

If they were to do that, then I would expect some other countries on that itinerary would also deny entry.

IE: If they couldn't meet US protocols and requirements then the visit to their country is also too risky.

[Redtravel]

  Do you have any real info?  Or are you just expressing a guess? I have an August cruise booking.  If I believe your posting, I should make alternate vacation plans?

[1985rz1]

24 minutes ago, Redtravel said:

  Do you have any real info?  Or are you just expressing a guess? I have an August cruise booking.  If I believe your posting, I should make alternate vacation plans?

Lots  of speculation, very few facts, in the postings across many threads on this board.

Edited January 30, 2021 by 1985rz1

[Nachosdelux]

18 hours ago, Redtravel said:

  Do you have any real info?  Or are you just expressing a guess? I have an August cruise booking.  If I believe your posting, I should make alternate vacation plans?

 

no one here can say with any certainty.  That said, IMHO, there is NO WAY that an August 2021 cruise will go as scheduled.  I personally am not booking a cruise until 2022, although we may see it open up this fall.

[Hlitner]

We have posted elsewhere on CC about this issue and do not agree with the OP.   I think interested folks need to carefully read through the current CDC Guidelines.  I have pointed out that it is a carefully constructed document designed to shift much of the burden on restarts from the CDC to the cruise lines.   In order for any cruise line to comply with the framework of the document they would first need to invest a large amount of money (and time) without any guarantee that they would get CDC approval.  And since this is to be done on a ship by ship basis the costs really skyrocket...with no guarantee there will be any return on the investment.  Since the Guidelines were written the world situation regarding COVID has undergone lots of change including new vaccines, problems with vaccine rollouts,  new strains of COVID, new major COVID outbreaks, etc.   Also keep in mind that having gone through the time and expense to get CDC approval (if that is even possible) it would take just a single case of COVID to get that approval suspended or even rescinded.

 

Where does this leave the cruise lines?  I think they are in a very bad place!  The CDC Guidelines need to be updated to incorporate vaccination plans.  But even this is currently problamatic until such time as there are some scientific/medical reports that address whether (or not) a vaccinated person can continue to spread COVID (asymtomatic spread).  

 

Another huge issue for the cruise lines are whether any ports (and which ones) will even agree to open up to cruise ships.  My own belief is that few ports will open to ships until the cruise lines adopt (and implement) a 100% vaccination policy where every soul onboard has been vaccinated and has some kind of proof.  And even this may not open ports if it turns out that those vaccinated can still spread COVID to others.

 

When will cruises restart?   I have no idea and neither does anyone else :(.  Cruise lines keep pushing back their proposed restart dates hoping for some kind of positive developments...but so far there has been very little about COVID that is positive.

 

Hank

[KirkNC]

25 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

We have posted elsewhere on CC about this issue and do not agree with the OP.   I think interested folks need to carefully read through the current CDC Guidelines.  I have pointed out that it is a carefully constructed document designed to shift much of the burden on restarts from the CDC to the cruise lines.   In order for any cruise line to comply with the framework of the document they would first need to invest a large amount of money (and time) without any guarantee that they would get CDC approval.  And since this is to be done on a ship by ship basis the costs really skyrocket...with no guarantee there will be any return on the investment.  Since the Guidelines were written the world situation regarding COVID has undergone lots of change including new vaccines, problems with vaccine rollouts,  new strains of COVID, new major COVID outbreaks, etc.   Also keep in mind that having gone through the time and expense to get CDC approval (if that is even possible) it would take just a single case of COVID to get that approval suspended or even rescinded.

 

Where does this leave the cruise lines?  I think they are in a very bad place!  The CDC Guidelines need to be updated to incorporate vaccination plans.  But even this is currently problamatic until such time as there are some scientific/medical reports that address whether (or not) a vaccinated person can continue to spread COVID (asymtomatic spread).  

 

Another huge issue for the cruise lines are whether any ports (and which ones) will even agree to open up to cruise ships.  My own belief is that few ports will open to ships until the cruise lines adopt (and implement) a 100% vaccination policy where every soul onboard has been vaccinated and has some kind of proof.  And even this may not open ports if it turns out that those vaccinated can still spread COVID to others.

 

When will cruises restart?   I have no idea and neither does anyone else :(.  Cruise lines keep pushing back their proposed restart dates hoping for some kind of positive developments...but so far there has been very little about COVID that is positive.

 

Hank

I agree completely and am fearful that cruising as we know it is either a very long way off or gone forever.

[Hlitner]

4 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I agree completely and am fearful that cruising as we know it is either a very long way off or gone forever.

Forever is a long time but we share your fear :(.  Although we are avid cruisers we are also avid independent travelers.  We have three future cruises booked (MSC, Oceania and HAL) but are not going to get our hopes up that they happen (the first one is in Oct 21).   We are much more optimistic that once we have been vaccinated there will be travel opportunities.  If Europe were to open up next summer to vaccinated travelers we would likely head over there for a few months.  There is also the possibility of some long driving trips inside our own country to States where the politicians still welcome tourists (we were quite happy with our December trip to Florida).

 

Hank

[GICNJC]

On 1/30/2021 at 4:57 PM, Redtravel said:

  Do you have any real info?  Or are you just expressing a guess? I have an August cruise booking.  If I believe your posting, I should make alternate vacation plans?

If you read the whole post, I admit it is a guess.  That said I have specialized in production management and scheduling and taught it at University for eleven years.