Australia / New Zealand

[jsarles]

We're booked on the Viking Orion to Australia / New Zealand in February 2022.  Currently Australia is closed to foreign tourists and to cruise ships.  Does anyone have any insight as to whether our ship is likely to sail?

[Gojagators]

We are also booked on the Orion for Auckland to Bangkok in February.  If you look at the posts from the Australia/New Zealand Forum here on CC the residents of those countries are fairly pessimistic about the chances that there will be a summer season (Oct-Mar) in that part of the world.  Things have changed rapidly in recent months so  its still up in the air currently.  I suggest keeping an eye on the Australia/ New Zealand forum for any hints as to what might happen.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Heidi13]

4 hours ago, jsarles said:

We're booked on the Viking Orion to Australia / New Zealand in February 2022.  Currently Australia is closed to foreign tourists and to cruise ships.  Does anyone have any insight as to whether our ship is likely to sail?

Hopefully LM, one of our Australian experts, can provide some updated insight.

 

@Little Monty

[Frenchberet]

7 hours ago, jsarles said:

We're booked on the Viking Orion to Australia / New Zealand in February 2022.  Currently Australia is closed to foreign tourists and to cruise ships.  Does anyone have any insight as to whether our ship is likely to sail?

I think it’s too soon for anyone to guess what the world situation will be 7 or 8 months from now.  Right now it looks like Australia is pretty much locked down.  
 

Just wanted to let you know that this is a great cruise you’ve booked!  We were aboard Orion when Australia closed its borders in March 2020.  We completed NZ but missed Tasmania and Australia.  Beautiful country.  We left a few days early and did Hobbiton and the glow worm caves on our own, very nice!  I hope you get to sail.

 

[onlyslightlymad]

15 hours ago, jsarles said:

We're booked on the Viking Orion to Australia / New Zealand in February 2022.  Currently Australia is closed to foreign tourists and to cruise ships.  Does anyone have any insight as to whether our ship is likely to sail?

I think this cruise is very unlikely to sail.  NZ has stated that its borders are closed for the rest of this year and then will open very slowly, probably only to certain countries.  Australia have indicated that their borders will not re-open until mid-22.  As most cruise ships move south to Australia in Sept/Oct for the commencement of the summer season, I think it's probable that cancellations will occur.  Cunard have already cancelled as have a couple of the other smaller lines (I can't remember which ones).  I also have a cruise booked in January out of SYD to the Pacific Islands and I am assuming that this will not happen.  

[Little Monty]

12 hours ago, Heidi13 said:

Hopefully LM, one of our Australian experts, can provide some updated insight.

 

@Little Monty

G'day Andy and CC members.

 

onlyslightlymad is very likely correct.

 

The situation is Australia has been and is constrained by 2 main factors.

1/ vaccine 'hesitancy' (mainly people who have doubts about our primary vaccine [Astra Zenica - manufactured in Australia]) and who are therefore waiting for Pfizer (some limited supply but coming from overseas) or Moderna (available later in the year, again from overseas). Along with those who are hesitant, there are of course a number anti-vaxers.

2/ Dis-organised roll-out, and mixed messages from politicians and so-called health experts who only serve to confuse the public about the risk, the benefits and the availability of each of the vaccine options.

 

The total number of vaccine shots given in Australia totals around 8 million for a total population of about 25 million (including children). Remembering, you have to get 2 shots of Astra Zenica to make the vaccine fully effective.

 

Not a good situation.

 

Until the great majority of the adult population are fully vaccinated it is unlikely large scale tourism will recommence.

 

I'll allow you to do the math - at the current rate we will be well into 2022 until we reach that point.

 

There is a growing sense of frustration at how poorly we are doing, and a growing sense of frustration at border closures between states when there are local outbreaks.

 

So I would suggest anyone with bookings for Australia for late 2021 and early 2022 have a Plan B in mind.

 

Please give me a reminder in 2 or 3 months and I will be happy to update you again.

 

Cheers, LM

 

[Little Monty]

It's a bit late to edit .. but I should have added Australia has had zero deaths from COVID for some months .. which is another reason for hesitancy.

 

Some are asking why get a vaccine if there is no / low risk ?

 

LM

[Roger88]

15 hours ago, Heidi13 said:

Hopefully LM, one of our Australian experts, can provide some updated insight.

 

@Little Monty

I have been going all over the internet looking for some valid news out there but unfortunaly all I have found were some unverfied forecasts and people searching for good deals. I believe that soon we will have more reliable information regarding cruising 

[Little Monty]

12 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

I have been going all over the internet looking for some valid news out there but unfortunaly all I have found were some unverfied forecasts and people searching for good deals. I believe that soon we will have more reliable information regarding cruising 

Howdy Roger

 

Obviously you need something more meaningful than my opinion.

 

No dramas  .. a news report (including a quote from the Australian Minister for Health) is linked below .. so obviously any 'formal' decision beyond 17 Sept has not yet been made.

 

I saw the interview, the reporting is accurate.

 

However expect a further 'formal' decision before end of August .. and expect 17 Sept will be extended.

 

Trust me 😁. There will be no international cruising in Australia this year. It is highly unlikely there will be international cruising in early next year.

 

You owe me one of these 🍺.

 

Coronavirus travel ban: Cruise industry calls for plan, as ship and travel ban extended again (9news.com.au)

 

Health Minister Greg Hunt announced the prolonging of the legislation governing Australia's coronavirus travel ban until at least September 17.

 

[Gojagators]

@onlyslightlymadand @Little Monty

Thank you for giving us the info on what is happening from your observations.  I fear your reading of the situation is correct and I'm going to be making a plan B for next year.  

[onlyslightlymad]

11 hours ago, Roger88 said:

I have been going all over the internet looking for some valid news out there but unfortunaly all I have found were some unverfied forecasts and people searching for good deals. I believe that soon we will have more reliable information regarding cruising 

Hi Roger,

There's plenty of valid news out there but it is mostly based in the countries concerned (unsurprisingly).  In NZ I suggest RNZ, the NZ Herald, Stuff.co.nz, or TVNZ

[Heidi13]

13 hours ago, Little Monty said:

G'day Andy and CC members.

 

onlyslightlymad is very likely correct.

 

The situation is Australia has been and is constrained by 2 main factors.

1/ vaccine 'hesitancy' (mainly people who have doubts about our primary vaccine [Astra Zenica - manufactured in Australia]) and who are therefore waiting for Pfizer (some limited supply but coming from overseas) or Moderna (available later in the year, again from overseas). Along with those who are hesitant, there are of course a number anti-vaxers.

2/ Dis-organised roll-out, and mixed messages from politicians and so-called health experts who only serve to confuse the public about the risk, the benefits and the availability of each of the vaccine options.

 

The total number of vaccine shots given in Australia totals around 8 million for a total population of about 25 million (including children). Remembering, you have to get 2 shots of Astra Zenica to make the vaccine fully effective.

 

Not a good situation.

 

Until the great majority of the adult population are fully vaccinated it is unlikely large scale tourism will recommence.

 

I'll allow you to do the math - at the current rate we will be well into 2022 until we reach that point.

 

There is a growing sense of frustration at how poorly we are doing, and a growing sense of frustration at border closures between states when there are local outbreaks.

 

So I would suggest anyone with bookings for Australia for late 2021 and early 2022 have a Plan B in mind.

 

Please give me a reminder in 2 or 3 months and I will be happy to update you again.

 

Cheers, LM

 

 

Thanks LM, your insight is always welcomed. If you can join us in Sydney or Brisbane in '23, the first cold one is on me.

 

Hopefully, you get increased delivery of vaccines, as we read today a number of areas are back in full lockdown, as the India variant is spreading. It's a tough lesson, but hopefully it may encourage more to vaccinate.

 

We also started slowly, as we don't manufacture any vaccines in Canada, so the US/Canada border is still closed and cruise ships are still banned from our waters. However, we are now receiving a regular supply and now have one of the world's highest vaccine rates, so hopefully we will see the border open shortly and cruise ships returning.

 

If all goes well, hopefully Australia will experience similar results. BTW - if you get AZ first, don't discount receiving Moderna or Pfizer as the 2nd dose.

[Little Monty]

8 minutes ago, Heidi13 said:

 

Thanks LM, your insight is always welcomed. If you can join us in Sydney or Brisbane in '23, the first cold one is on me.

 

🍺 .. sounds good

[azdrydock]

Our cruise is scheduled to arrive in Australia late November 2021 and we enter the cancellation  "penalty" phase in 3 weeks. Plan B is finished and will press the send button at the last minute.

 

Onlyslightlymad: We are on a cruise in September of this year that visits the Cook Islands. Any chance NZ will lift the ban by then? Opinions and guesses are acceptable.

[Dukefan]

We had a land tour to Australia and New Zealand booked for September/October of this year that the tour operator canceled last week.  They are rescheduling if for the fall of 2022. We had been expecting this so it was disappointing but no big surprise.    While we are on the Iceland cruise we plan to discuss what we will do in that trip's place this fall.

[onlyslightlymad]

4 hours ago, azdrydock said:

Our cruise is scheduled to arrive in Australia late November 2021 and we enter the cancellation  "penalty" phase in 3 weeks. Plan B is finished and will press the send button at the last minute.

 

Onlyslightlymad: We are on a cruise in September of this year that visits the Cook Islands. Any chance NZ will lift the ban by then? Opinions and guesses are acceptable.

This year?  It's very unlikely.  The government have stated that our borders won't open this year.  We are sitting at 7.5% fully vaccinated and are scheduled to meet our vaccination targets by year end assuming the supply of vaccine is uninterrupted and the populace is willing.  The govt have just started vaccinating the over-65s.  Even then, they are talking about a slow and staggered border reopening.  Add to that, the Australians are projecting that they will not open until mid-22 and the cruise ships homeport there so very unlikely the ships will come down south.  Where does your cruise depart from?  The Cook Islands is a self-governing independent country although it has a close relationship with NZ.  So, it does not have to follow NZ Govt policy.  It is unlikely to do anything to disrupt the travel bubble with NZ though.

[azdrydock]

29 minutes ago, onlyslightlymad said:

This year?  It's very unlikely.  The government have stated that our borders won't open this year.  We are sitting at 7.5% fully vaccinated and are scheduled to meet our vaccination targets by year end assuming the supply of vaccine is uninterrupted and the populace is willing.  The govt have just started vaccinating the over-65s.  Even then, they are talking about a slow and staggered border reopening.  Add to that, the Australians are projecting that they will not open until mid-22 and the cruise ships homeport there so very unlikely the ships will come down south.  Where does your cruise depart from?  The Cook Islands is a self-governing independent country although it has a close relationship with NZ.  So, it does not have to follow NZ Govt policy.  It is unlikely to do anything to disrupt the travel bubble with NZ though.

We start in Tahiti and they are currently open for  tourism. Cruising can start as soon as logistics allow and first cruises are now scheduled for late August. It was relayed to us that the Cook Islands will stay in the NZ bubble. My guess is they will substitute a few French Poly destinations

 

Thank

 

[onlyslightlymad]

4 minutes ago, azdrydock said:

We start in Tahiti and they are currently open for  tourism. Cruising can start as soon as logistics allow and first cruises are now scheduled for late August. It was relayed to us that the Cook Islands will stay in the NZ bubble. My guess is they will substitute a few French Poly destinations

 

Thank

 

No problem.  I hope your cruise goes well.

[Little Monty]

Just a quick update on the situation in Australia ... 

 

Some background.

 

In 2021 there has been 1 death from Coronavirus in Australia (in April). Prior to that the previous death was last December. Politicians are completely paranoid about being responsible for any decision which leads to further deaths (ie they are being very cautious). A significant number of our citizens are completely happy to live in a bubble if that means they are safe from COVID19.

 

Right now there are fewer than 10 people in ICU's in hospitals across Australia (mostly people who have come back from overseas whilst infected).

 

International travel is restricted and we have to receive approval from the Government to travel overseas (and people from overseas have to receive approval to travel to / enter Australia).

 

However even if we get approval (rare for regular Joe's like me) there are almost nil international flights to book. Those that are available are priced sky high and are out of reach to most.

 

I'm aware many of you reading this will be astounded that we are effectively 'locked in' to our own country (or locked out if you are stuck overseas).

 

Today the Prime Minister outlined the Government's 4-phase plan for opening up to international travel on what used to be 'normal' arrangements. I won't go into any great detail (some of it is political 'spin') but it is largely linked to vaccination rates. The actual benchmarks have yet to be determined by medical and scientific experts but it will be something along the lines of ...

 

We are in phase 1 now.

 

(these are just my guesses as examples)

 

once say 70% of people aged over 70 and 50% of people over 50 are fully vaccinated we will go to phase 2

 

once 70% of the whole population are vaccinated and deaths from COVID are lower than would normally be experienced from influenza we go to phase 3 

 

etc 

 

 

Right now, approx 30% of the adult population have received the first jab and approx 8% are fully vaccinated - remembering that our Government delayed the start of the program to undertake further evaluations (ie undertaking further trials, watching what was happening overseas).

 

Last week more than 1 million vaccinations were given (across the whole country) and we have a total number of 8 million given to date. If we continue at 1 million a week we will be at 33 million by the end of the year. Assuming we have 18 million people over the age of 16 we would need 36 million jabs to cover the whole adult population (2 jabs each).

 

We are in phase 1 now. The 'experts' I'm watching on TV right now think we might get to phase 2 by the end of the year / early next year.

 

Wide spread international travel (ie you guys coming here, me going on my South American cruise) only comes on-line in phase 3.

 

The same experts on TV are saying .. phase 3 is unlikely until mid next year at best.

 

So that is a long way of saying - based on what we have been told today the Australian border won't open to widespread international travel till mid 2022 - and it may (stress may) be necessary for all overseas visitors to be fully vaccinated.

 

Don't get me wrong .. I fully support most of the decisions which the Aussie government has made. The elderly were and are the group most at risk when there is widespread community transmission of COVID. One of the most distressing situations we have encountered in Australia was a large  number of deaths in Victorian Aged Care facilities (nursing homes) last year.

 

It has been estimated the decisions made by the Government (such as closing the border to China very early in the Pandemic) has avoided up to 30,000 deaths and for this we are all eternally grateful.

 

That doesn't mean we all agree with every decision made, but it is what it is.

 

As mentioned, this information has just been provided by the Prime Minister today and some of the details may change or be refined as time goes by.

 

And of course, it is just my take on the situation.

 

Hopefully of some value to you.

 

Cheers, LM

 

 

[onlyslightlymad]

You may be interested in this piece published in our little local newspaper here in Tauranga.

https://sunlive.co.nz/news/271744-cruise-ship-return-not-expected-until-2022.html

[Hazel52]

Thank you Little Monty and only slightly mad for this information. Not what any of us who have bookings this winter want to hear but very good to know.

[Hazel52]

With several of the Orion cruises canceled as of late (along the Asian coast) seems likely that Australia and NZ will be next. 😥

[azdrydock]

Bailed on our November 2021 Bali to Sydney yesterday..... 

 

 

Suspect our cruise to the Cook Islands will be revamped in the next few days prior to final payment deadline.

[Pushka]

Little Monty is still on the money. NSW has an outbreak right now, and just today it was announced that a 90 year old who was not vaccinated has died. Five other older people also tested positive but they had been vaccinated and they don't have any symptoms after a week. Supposedly our vaccination process will be finished by December but given that we can't even exit the country right now it will take a long time before anything like Covid normal will exist. I'd say end of 2022 for any cruises involving Australia. Our summer season Summer 2021 has seen all the usual cruise lines cancel the season. 

[Heidi13]

21 hours ago, Pushka said:

Little Monty is still on the money. NSW has an outbreak right now, and just today it was announced that a 90 year old who was not vaccinated has died. Five other older people also tested positive but they had been vaccinated and they don't have any symptoms after a week. Supposedly our vaccination process will be finished by December but given that we can't even exit the country right now it will take a long time before anything like Covid normal will exist. I'd say end of 2022 for any cruises involving Australia. Our summer season Summer 2021 has seen all the usual cruise lines cancel the season. 

 

Thanks Pushka - hoping your Govt can get the latest outbreak under control and the country reaches the vaccination goals.

 

Still hoping to arrive on Neptune in 2023.

 

Hoping Little Monty joins us in one of the ports, so you are most welcome to join us as well, if you are close to any of the ports.