Upgrades and Upsells

[mauibabes]

I hate to say this folks, but book the level you want to sail in and be happy with your selection decision and location.  To book a stateroom you do not want just in hope the cruise line will offer you a “deal” is only setting you up for failure and frustration.  If on a mega ship this approach might work but there are limited numbers of better verandas and suites on Oceania ships.  Remember, as we venture slowly forward from there ever hanging pandemic protocols, no one knows if past practices will hold not if cruise lines will offer deals while they continue to loose money on most sailings.  They have to start turning profits. 
Seeing how cruising has played out with passengers quarantined and moved to less desireable rooms, there is no way I could convince MY wife to book a stateroom without a veranda.  The thought of being quarantined in a inside stateroom would turn our claustrophobia into a permanent panic attack.

JMHO, 

Mauibabes

[ORV]

19 minutes ago, mauibabes said:

 They have to start turning profits. 

That's going to require getting more people on the ships. What's the answer? I don't know, but 40% capacity is not the answer. Many of us would book right away if we saw better prices. JMHO. 

[MEFIowa]

13 hours ago, ORV said:

That's going to require getting more people on the ships. What's the answer? I don't know, but 40% capacity is not the answer. Many of us would book right away if we saw better prices. JMHO. 

The press reporting from the cruise lines appears to indicate bookings from mid-summer of 2022 on are going quite well. They want to get back to full capacity ASAP. And the pent-up demand is there. There is little incentive to discount later cruises when inflation is running over 7%. The recent O Presidents' Day Sale has about half of the sales for cruises taking place before August. Omicron is changing travel around the world for the better.

[ORV]

25 minutes ago, MEFIowa said:

The press reporting from the cruise lines appears to indicate bookings from mid-summer of 2022 on are going quite well. They want to get back to full capacity ASAP. And the pent-up demand is there. There is little incentive to discount later cruises when inflation is running over 7%. The recent O Presidents' Day Sale has about half of the sales for cruises taking place before August. Omicron is changing travel around the world for the better.

Every cruise I look at is wide open. I hope they start filling them, but this pent up demand concept I believe is a lot of hype. I do see people cancelling right and left with every spike. I sincerely hope things get back to normal. I just don't understand sailing ships half full when there are plenty of people that would book at better prices. They need people on ships right now! Of course they need them in the future, but the restart doesn't appear to be going so well. Look at the World Cruise. I'll be real unhappy to shell out that type of money and have the itinerary slashed the way this one has been. 

 

 

[MEFIowa]

3 minutes ago, ORV said:

I just don't understand sailing ships half full when there are plenty of people that would book at better prices. They need people on ships right now! ...

 

 

NCL has made it clear in its public statements to the business press that they are NOT going to engage in discounting price war. As, for example, the WSJ reported not too long ago, they'd rather lose some passengers on some 2022 cruises than deep discount and spend years trying to raise prices. Thinking they indicated it took them a decade to recover their pricing after the last such price war. So they, like many other lines, are trying the "everything but the room price discount" approach first. When inflation is at 7%+ and pent-up demand exists, makes a lot of financial sense in the long-run. And they are in the business for the long run. BUT see the recent O Presidents' Day Sale. About half the cruises showing sales are before August 2022. So they are doing something.

[MEFIowa]

1 hour ago, ORV said:

Every cruise I look at is wide open. I hope they start filling them, but this pent up demand concept I believe is a lot of hype. I do see people cancelling right and left with every spike. I sincerely hope things get back to normal. I just don't understand sailing ships half full when there are plenty of people that would book at better prices. ...

This is the current big picture on pricing and demand forecasts: NCLH recently provided a business update. ... As of Feb 8, 2022, 16 of its 28 ships, or 70% of its berth capacity, are operational with guests onboard. By the end of first-quarter 2022, the company expects to operate at approximately 85% of berth capacity. By the end of second-quarter 2022, the company anticipates operating with the full fleet. ... The company announced that pricing for the first half, the second half as well as full-year 2022 are above the record levels for the same time in 2019. The company has been witnessing strong booking demand for 2023.

[ORV]

2 hours ago, MEFIowa said:

This is the current big picture on pricing and demand forecasts: NCLH recently provided a business update. ... As of Feb 8, 2022, 16 of its 28 ships, or 70% of its berth capacity, are operational with guests onboard. By the end of first-quarter 2022, the company expects to operate at approximately 85% of berth capacity. By the end of second-quarter 2022, the company anticipates operating with the full fleet. ... The company announced that pricing for the first half, the second half as well as full-year 2022 are above the record levels for the same time in 2019. The company has been witnessing strong booking demand for 2023.

Those numbers don’t indicate bodies in rooms. They only show capacity. Don’t get me wrong. I want them to do well. What press releases are spinning and the realities of the situation aren’t always the same. Looking at some current pricing for next winter for the Caribbean is making me wonder if I’ll be able to cruise on Oceania in the future. At least I’ll have memories of the 25 or so cruises I’ve been on with them. 

[MisterBill99]

6 hours ago, MEFIowa said:

This is the current big picture on pricing and demand forecasts: NCLH recently provided a business update. ... As of Feb 8, 2022, 16 of its 28 ships, or 70% of its berth capacity, are operational with guests onboard. By the end of first-quarter 2022, the company expects to operate at approximately 85% of berth capacity. By the end of second-quarter 2022, the company anticipates operating with the full fleet. ... The company announced that pricing for the first half, the second half as well as full-year 2022 are above the record levels for the same time in 2019. The company has been witnessing strong booking demand for 2023.

3 hours ago, ORV said:

Those numbers don’t indicate bodies in rooms. They only show capacity. Don’t get me wrong. I want them to do well. What press releases are spinning and the realities of the situation aren’t always the same. 

 

I was going to say something similar, but I think that the poster was referring to the mention of demand at the end of the release. Pretty obvious that they will not be sailing at 85% full by the end of 1q.

 

 

[ORV]

14 hours ago, MEFIowa said:

The press reporting from the cruise lines appears to indicate bookings from mid-summer of 2022 on are going quite well. They want to get back to full capacity ASAP. And the pent-up demand is there. There is little incentive to discount later cruises when inflation is running over 7%. The recent O Presidents' Day Sale has about half of the sales for cruises taking place before August. Omicron is changing travel around the world for the better.

I just spent some time looking at availability through late summer on everything except Insignia. I didn't look at them all, but enough to get a good picture of how bookings are going. Here is one example to check out. This is London to London, British Isle cruise in the middle of the summer. This limited itinerary historically books up not long after opening. Check out the link, it's wide open. This is what I'm talking about. This is why I'm saying the "pent up demand" is a spin. Not to mention that the Baltic season is falling apart with the unease in that area. As I mentioned before I really want them to do good and recover to the way things used to be. I just don't believe that business as usual and acting like nothing is wrong is the way to go. 

 

https://www.oceaniacruises.com/british-isles-cruises/london-to-dublin-SIR220613/?sr=%2Fcruise-finder%23time_frame%3D2022-5|2022-6%26ship%3DMNA|NAU|REG|RVA|SIR%26sort%3Dfeatured%3Adesc%26page%3D3%26pageSize%3D10

[Flatbush Flyer]

2 hours ago, ORV said:

I just spent some time looking at availability through late summer on everything except Insignia. I didn't look at them all, but enough to get a good picture of how bookings are going. Here is one example to check out. This is London to London, British Isle cruise in the middle of the summer. This limited itinerary historically books up not long after opening. Check out the link, it's wide open. This is what I'm talking about. This is why I'm saying the "pent up demand" is a spin. Not to mention that the Baltic season is falling apart with the unease in that area. As I mentioned before I really want them to do good and recover to the way things used to be. I just don't believe that business as usual and acting like nothing is wrong is the way to go. 

 

https://www.oceaniacruises.com/british-isles-cruises/london-to-dublin-SIR220613/?sr=%2Fcruise-finder%23time_frame%3D2022-5|2022-6%26ship%3DMNA|NAU|REG|RVA|SIR%26sort%3Dfeatured%3Adesc%26page%3D3%26pageSize%3D10

“Wide open?” Did you happen to go through a mock booking to see how many actual cabins are available in the categories that say “available?”  
Also, remember that recent O cruises have been capacity controlled in significant ways. And, along with the lightening of mask restrictions as of March 1, there probably will be a stepped up increase in capacity with resulting new cabin availability.  
 

[ORV]

7 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

“Wide open?” Did you happen to go through a mock booking to see how many actual cabins are available in the categories that say “available?”  
Also, remember that recent O cruises have been capacity controlled in significant ways. And, along with the lightening of mask restrictions as of March 1, there probably will be a stepped up increase in capacity with resulting new cabin availability.  
 

I didn't do any mock bookings. The point is in the past there would be NO availability on that itinerary. 

 

I'm pretty sure there are currently no restrictions on capacity. Capacity is being controlled by what they are able to sell. If you understood Oceania's demographics half as much as you think you do you'd understand the majority of their return base customers are pretty much north of 75 and still concerned about every spike in case numbers.  Many of them are not traveling, and many of them are reluctantly booking to not lose FCCs. But you know that, but it seems your personal perspective might be getting in the way of seeing it.   None of us have access to real numbers of bookings and cancellations, but I would be willing to say it's a far cry from what it needs to be, or what it's painted to be. 

Bottom line is it's a tenuous time for all of the cruise lines, and the future ain't so bright they gotta wear shades. 

[cruisingxpert]

11 hours ago, ORV said:

I just spent some time looking at availability through late summer on everything except Insignia. I didn't look at them all, but enough to get a good picture of how bookings are going. Here is one example to check out. This is London to London, British Isle cruise in the middle of the summer. This limited itinerary historically books up not long after opening. Check out the link, it's wide open. This is what I'm talking about. This is why I'm saying the "pent up demand" is a spin. Not to mention that the Baltic season is falling apart with the unease in that area. As I mentioned before I really want them to do good and recover to the way things used to be. I just don't believe that business as usual and acting like nothing is wrong is the way to go. 

 

https://www.oceaniacruises.com/british-isles-cruises/london-to-dublin-SIR220613/?sr=%2Fcruise-finder%23time_frame%3D2022-5|2022-6%26ship%3DMNA|NAU|REG|RVA|SIR%26sort%3Dfeatured%3Adesc%26page%3D3%26pageSize%3D10

I agree with you Orv.  There may be a pent up demand but uncertainty around constant changes in rules for travel is causing most people to take a wait and see approach.  When I booked Riviera for May 17th cruise, it was waitlist in all but a very view categories.  I checked the other day on a site that shows available cabins and there were 218 available cabins.

 

As far as capacity control I did cruise on the the first Caribbean cruise on Dec 3rd and we had an almost full ship.  It was just the start of the Omicron meteoric rise.

 

[Flatbush Flyer]

1 minute ago, cruisingxpert said:

I agree with you Orv.  There may be a pent up demand but uncertainty around constant changes in rules for travel is causing most people to take a wait and see approach.  When I booked Riviera for May 17th cruise, it was waitlist in all but a very view categories.  I checked the other day on a site that shows available cabins and there were 218 available cabins.

 

As far as capacity control I did cruise on the the first Caribbean cruise on Dec 3rd and we had an almost full ship.  It was just the start of the Omicron meteoric rise.

 

And I just cruised on Riviera which was capacity controlled at approx. 50% but, most likely, courtesy of the few handfuls of selfish “chin strap maskers,” still had a noticeable number of crew and passenger quarantines 

Interesting to note that Insignia (capacity controlled with unbending mask requirements) has now recently had two onboard testing sessions with zero positives. If, when they get to L.A., the new cruisers (100% vaccinated & w/negative tests) joining adhere to the strict mask wearing/hand washing/social distancing norm that has been established onboard (and carried through in visited ports), their mid-cruise testing will most likely also be 100% negative.

Not rocket science... 

Whole countries like NZ figured this out long ago.

[cruisingxpert]

5 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

And I just cruised on Riviera which was capacity controlled at approx. 50% but, most likely, courtesy of the few handfuls of selfish “chin strap maskers,” still had a noticeable number of crew and passenger quarantines 

That's because your cruise and the ones from Jan 4th to end of Feb had the option to get an FCC and cancel their cruise.  The capacity control  happened because of Omicron and was not in place for the transatlantic crossing or our Dec 3rd cruise.  Dec 3rd and Dec 13th cruise were the last cruises where no masks were required.

[PhD-iva]

The 17 November 2021 Riviera transatlantic from Rome had about roughly 80% capacity. 

[Flatbush Flyer]

14 minutes ago, cruisingxpert said:

That's because your cruise and the ones from Jan 4th to end of Feb had the option to get an FCC and cancel their cruise.  The capacity control  happened because of Omicron and was not in place for the transatlantic crossing or our Dec 3rd cruise.  Dec 3rd and Dec 13th cruise were the last cruises where no masks were required.

And, by the same logic: Those folks who bowed out with an FCC are far less likely to return if they continue to have Covid concerns and O then lessens the restrictions.

What appears to be not understood by some in this thread is that, given the O demographic (not just age), eliminating a mask mandate will find even more O regulars avoiding booking until Covid is no longer a threat.

I trust that most O regulars are smart/caring  enough to want a more restrictive environment for the time being and would prefer protecting public health more than avoiding the minimal intrusiveness of wearing a mask. This isn’t (fill in the name of whatever other cruise line comes to mind).

[Flatbush Flyer]

5 minutes ago, PhD-iva said:

The 17 November 2021 Riviera transatlantic from Rome had about roughly 80% capacity. 

That’s ancient history now. The last thing we should be doing when driving into unknown territory is looking in the rear view mirror.

[ORV]

34 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

And, by the same logic: Those folks who bowed out with an FCC are far less likely to return if they continue to have Covid concerns and O then lessens the restrictions.

What appears to be not understood by some in this thread is that, given the O demographic (not just age), eliminating a mask mandate will find even more O regulars avoiding booking until Covid is no longer a threat.

I trust that most O regulars are smart/caring  enough to want a more restrictive environment for the time being and would prefer protecting public health more than avoiding the minimal intrusiveness of wearing a mask. This isn’t (fill in the name of whatever other cruise line comes to mind).

Or you might just be projecting your perspective and the way you'd like things to be on the many other patrons of Oceania. Personally, while I believe in vaccinations and masks and all that stuff I think there are more that would prefer to cruise without them than with them. But I wouldn't presume to speak for others.  As my wife frequently tells me, "you're not in charge of other people" 

[Tranquility Base]

A poll question here on CC may provide some interesting insight.

Of course, a lot would depend on what options were presented  in such a poll.

[MEFIowa]

2 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

 

 

2 hours ago, cruisingxpert said:

The capacity control happened because of Omicron and was not in place for the transatlantic crossing or our Dec 3rd cruise.  Dec 3rd and Dec 13th cruise were the last cruises where no masks were required.

Yes, I was on the 12/13-23/21 W. Caribbean cruise and we didn't have to wear masks. Few were seen by passengers. The crew, of course, had to wear masks. Ours was also the cruise that stopped the crew from leaving the ship. They were able to go off on Dec 15th (in Cozumel) but not afterwards. We had 719 passengers and 782 crew.

[pinotlover]

Jancruz posted long ago that Oceania was no longer capacity controlling cruises. If the ships aren’t full it’s because people aren’t booking them, or taking the FCC and bailing. Period, end of that story.

 

The greater question now becomes when will cruisers stop bailing? As cruise payment in full dates pass, a continuing stream of cancellations and availability is not a good sign. There is an old saying about “ those living by the sword often die by the sword “. Oceania’s demographics, which they’ve done well with in the past, may not be a blessing in these times. 

[Host Jazzbeau]

The latest CBS/Rasmussen poll shows that every single person on Cruise Critic is aware of the opinions of @pinotlover and @Flatbush Flyer on this issue.  There is no need to keep repeating yourselves.  😉