Sensation to breaking yard.

[tidecat]

Obviously we'll never know, but I'm not sure that the Fantasy class wasn't going to meet it's demise sometime in the 2020s.

 

We do know that the original final scheduled voyage for the Fantasy was January 7, 2022 out of Mobile. Her previously scheduled replacement, Fascination, was scheduled for a November 2020 drydock and presumably would have been in service until at least mid-2023. It would have been interesting to see if the transfer of what is now Carnival Jubilee would have still happened, as that could have lined up with a potential retirement for the Fascination. It's also likely Fascination could have been in service until 2026.

 

I think Ecstasy could actually getting to sign off more or less as intended. She will be due for drydock again this fall, and basically the same age Fantasy would have retired at in January 2022. I have a hard time seeing Carnival pushing out her disposal to late 2024/early 2025.

 

The flies in the ointment are Imagination (last drydock 2019, would have been due in 2022) and Inspiration (last drydock 2018, would have been due 2021). I think it's possible they go before Ecstasy, Sensation, and Fascination simply because Imagination and Inspiration never got the retrofitted balconies.

 

So most likely, even with retiring Fantasy plus 3 others, Carnival still would have been up in passenger capacity from 2019 to 2022, even without the third Excel ship (Jubilee) or the fourth Sunshine class ship (Costa Magica). I still think the Costa Magica transfer happens, mainly to manage Costa's capacity, and that probably kills off whichever one of Ecstasy/Imagination/Sensation is still standing.

 

If Carnival Jubilee had remained an AIDA ship, I suspect Carnival would have ordered another ship due in 2024 or 2025. That likely knocks out Fascination.

 

Where things will get messy is around 2026. The remaining Fantasy, Destiny/Sunshine class (including Costa Magica), Spirit Class (see Elation and Paradise) and 4 of the 5 Conquest class ships all turn 30 between 2026-2035.

That's 14 ships within 10 years that will need to be replaced. Even if Carnival can replace the total passenger capacity with only 7 new ships, there would likely be consolidation of homeports. 

 

So hypothetically, by 2034 with 7 new builds and 3 Excel class ships:

 

1. Newbuild in MIA for 6-8 day sailings

2. Newbuild in PC for 6-8 day sailings partially

3. Newbuild in GAL for 6-8 day sailings.

4. Newbuild in LGB for 6-8 day sailings.

5. Consolidate the 2 MIA short cruise ships into Excel-class or newer for 3-5 day sailings.

6. Consolidate the 2 LGB short cruise ships into Excel-class or newer for 3-5 day sailings.

 

7. Consolidate JAX into PC, with an Excel-class doing 4-5 day cruises

8. Consolidate MOB into NO, with Mardi Gras doing 6-8 day sailings.

9. Newbuild in MIA for 6-8 day cruises

10. Newbuild in PC for 6-8 day cruises (absorb TPA)

 

This leaves the Dream class for Norfolk, Charleston, and New Orleans. The Vista class would be left with Galveston, Long Beach, and a seasonal split between Miami/Seattle. That leaves the Freedom and Splendor for Australia.

[BlerkOne]

Cuba hopefully will be a viable port again sooner rather than later and large ships just won't fit.

 

I don't see ginormous ships ever being a good choice for tender ports.

[Indytraveler83]

I think that I remember reading that much of the Fantasy class was operating at pretty much break even (profit wise) due to high operating costs of older equipment and the lack of balconies failing to earn premium room rates.  Rumors had persisted for years that the Fantasy was on the chopping block, and that the only reason Carnival kept this class afloat was to try and maintain a passenger capacity/homeport presence in line with it's competitors. The shutdown aged much of the fleet terribly, and they likely decided that the Fantasy class wasn't worth reinvesting in again.

 

Going forward, it'll be interesting to see the fleet plan.  As posted above, much of the fleet is rapidly aging, especially all vessels older than the Dream class.  However, it seems like ships are growing far faster than the ports can accommodate, and it makes one wonder if Carnival would have to plan more "small" ships (Conquest/Spirit sized?) in the future to accommodate the ports. 

[Lane Hog]

6 hours ago, Itried4498 said:

 

That would make sense only if Carnival is replacing those ships, which it is not.  Once global restrictions are lifted and Carnival is able to rebuild its network, the loss of eight ships will lead to a loss of itineraries -- including the potential loss of a secondary port like Charleston,  Mobile, etc. 

Agree.  Galveston, Mobile and New Orleans cannibalize each other almost as bad as Jacksonville, Tampa, Port Everglades, Port Canaveral and Miami do. 

If the smaller volume ports were using mostly/fully depreciated ships, I don't know if the economics work quite as well with the cost of a newer ship that's sized for those channel/height/pier restricted ports.  Making improvements to those ports will take longer than building a new ship, but that might need to be the incentive for the changes to be made and cruises to return.

 

2 hours ago, Itried4498 said:

 

The problem is that Carnival prematurely retired 8 ships under its brand, and nearly two dozen ships corporate wide.  It isn't like an airline, which can purchase used equipment to partially replace the planes it retired. 

 

True to a point, but take into consideration that some of the smaller brands may still on life support, and some of those 2023-2027 deliveries might not have solvent owners anymore.  Carnival has as-built plans they can replicate if they wanted to get additional lift with 18-24 months notice, maybe less if they assume someone else's hull.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Lane Hog

[tidecat]

Carnival Cruise Line may also have another out: AIDA's Sphinx Class. AIDA currently has six ships between 69,000 and 72,000 gross tons that entered service from 2007 to 2013. Apparently AIDAdiva, the first in the class, has sailed under the Quebec bridges, which have a clearance of 150 feet, so Tampa, Jacksonville, and Baltimore may get to stay a little longer.

 

AIDA only has 12 ships in its fleet, but the entire Sphinx Class could be replaced with as few as three new builds of they are of similar size to the Excel class (such as Mardi Gras and AIDAnova).

 

Assuming the conversion can pay for itself in 10 years, if not fewer, these could be viable replacements for the Fantasy and Spirit classes. The Sphinx class ships are basically the same capacity as the remaining Fantasy and Spirit class ships, 

 

 

[Aplmac]

On 3/21/2022 at 6:27 PM, chengkp75 said:

Which is 1.7% of the $289 million estimated just to keep her afloat.

Do taxpayers have that commitment? 

She earned $3.3 million/year, so that is an 87 year return on investment.

 Think she'll be there that long?

 

You portray an unsustainable future.
She won't be there that long.....

[karmamule]

On 3/21/2022 at 11:08 PM, Itried4498 said:

 

The problem is that Carnival prematurely retired 8 ships under its brand, and nearly two dozen ships corporate wide.  It isn't like an airline, which can purchase used equipment to partially replace the planes it retired.  As you know, it takes several years to design, build and deliver a new ship.  And in the interim, especially in a hot travel market, opportunity cost will prevail.

 

Prior to the pandemic, Carnival discussed that it was seeing high demand for extended itineraries, especially on non-traditional itineraries.  It hoped that the new megaships would make it more competitive on a per-passenger basis on traditional routes, and free up the now-medium sized ships.

 

During its recent earnings call, Carnival projected record demand in 2023.  Even if it replicated its 2019 network, it'd be down at least 5 ships, meaning plenty of plenty of itineraries would have to be cut.  And if the industry rebounds, the revenue opportunities on increased extended voyages to Hawaii, Alaska, through the Panama Canal, etc. will triumph those earned traveling from Mobile, Charleston, Jacksonville, etc. to Mexico.

 

Well there are the Genting/Crystal ships with an uncertain future after the company folding. I wonder if Carnival could purchase and refit some of those? There's quite a range of sizes too.

[mz-s]

I guess that as ships near and surpass 30 years old things that have been in the ship that long start breaking down more often, parts get hard to find, and the equipment is difficult to replace (how much would need to be removed to get an engine out). I remember on my Ecstasy behind the fun tour, they showed us the sheet folding machine and remarked how it was original to the ship from back in 1991. It was a big machine and would certainly be impossible to replace outside of cutting a huge hole in the side of her.

[Indytraveler83]

The idea that Carnival could be positioned to cannibalize ships from other brands is an interesting one.  It's already doing so with Costa, and while the Costa Magica isn't small enough to go under the bridges everyone is concerned about, it could be a bit of a trial of concept.  

 

If Carnival's plans in China don't work out as planned, they have two more Spirit class ships that could be transferred as well...

[chengkp75]

4 hours ago, karmamule said:

 

Well there are the Genting/Crystal ships with an uncertain future after the company folding. I wonder if Carnival could purchase and refit some of those? There's quite a range of sizes too.

One of the Crystal ships is older than the ships they are scrapping.  One is as old as the oldest ships they are retaining, so neither is a good business decision.  The only ship that would be attractive to Carnival would be the partially finished one.

1 hour ago, mz-s said:

I guess that as ships near and surpass 30 years old things that have been in the ship that long start breaking down more often, parts get hard to find, and the equipment is difficult to replace (how much would need to be removed to get an engine out). I remember on my Ecstasy behind the fun tour, they showed us the sheet folding machine and remarked how it was original to the ship from back in 1991. It was a big machine and would certainly be impossible to replace outside of cutting a huge hole in the side of her.

Actually, at that age (and it really starts at 15 years of age), it is the inspection and testing of structural steel in the hull of the ship that causes the most cost.  At 15 years, the ships cannot skip a drydock using a diver's inspection, and more and more locations are required to be tested for steel wastage (corrosion), and then subsequent renewal of that wasted steel.  And, much of this steel is in very difficult places to get to, in order to remove and replace.

 

Ship's engines are completely rebuilt (torn completely apart, and everything that is worn is replaced) every 12,000 hours, or about every 2.5 years.  So, an engine in a ship that is 30 years old, would actually only be 2-3 years old, in terms of wear.

 

Cutting holes in the sides of ships to renew equipment, or install new equipment, is a common practice.  I've been on a ship that replaced a "cross-folder" in the laundry, and that ship was only about 10 years old.  Royal Caribbean had a warranty failure of an engine in one of their new Oasis class ships, and when they went to drydock, they docked the ship much higher than normal, cut out the bottom of the ship under the engine, lowered it to the dock, and slid it out.  New engine installed in reverse.

1 hour ago, Indytraveler83 said:

The idea that Carnival could be positioned to cannibalize ships from other brands is an interesting one.  It's already doing so with Costa, and while the Costa Magica isn't small enough to go under the bridges everyone is concerned about, it could be a bit of a trial of concept.  

 

If Carnival's plans in China don't work out as planned, they have two more Spirit class ships that could be transferred as well...

Carnival has the business model of "revitalizing" older ships and renaming them, but the major hotel infrastructure is still 20 years old, so this will not be attractive to a large demographic of cruisers, but may continue to feed Carnival's capacity for some time, or it may not.

 

As for the Chinese ships, there would have to be very large renovations in order to make it attractive to the western markets.

[Indytraveler83]

27 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

 

Carnival has the business model of "revitalizing" older ships and renaming them, but the major hotel infrastructure is still 20 years old, so this will not be attractive to a large demographic of cruisers, but may continue to feed Carnival's capacity for some time, or it may not.

 

As someone who knows these things far better than most of us, do you have any insight on why the "hotel" part of the ship seems to go mostly untouched?

 

Seems commonplace to revitalize public areas and decks, while leaving staterooms and areas like that mostly untouched and aging.  

[mz-s]

37 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

One of the Crystal ships is older than the ships they are scrapping.  One is as old as the oldest ships they are retaining, so neither is a good business decision.  The only ship that would be attractive to Carnival would be the partially finished one.

Actually, at that age (and it really starts at 15 years of age), it is the inspection and testing of structural steel in the hull of the ship that causes the most cost.  At 15 years, the ships cannot skip a drydock using a diver's inspection, and more and more locations are required to be tested for steel wastage (corrosion), and then subsequent renewal of that wasted steel.  And, much of this steel is in very difficult places to get to, in order to remove and replace.

 

Ship's engines are completely rebuilt (torn completely apart, and everything that is worn is replaced) every 12,000 hours, or about every 2.5 years.  So, an engine in a ship that is 30 years old, would actually only be 2-3 years old, in terms of wear.

 

Cutting holes in the sides of ships to renew equipment, or install new equipment, is a common practice.  I've been on a ship that replaced a "cross-folder" in the laundry, and that ship was only about 10 years old.  Royal Caribbean had a warranty failure of an engine in one of their new Oasis class ships, and when they went to drydock, they docked the ship much higher than normal, cut out the bottom of the ship under the engine, lowered it to the dock, and slid it out.  New engine installed in reverse.

Carnival has the business model of "revitalizing" older ships and renaming them, but the major hotel infrastructure is still 20 years old, so this will not be attractive to a large demographic of cruisers, but may continue to feed Carnival's capacity for some time, or it may not.

 

As for the Chinese ships, there would have to be very large renovations in order to make it attractive to the western markets.

 

Another thing I recall from my behind the fun tour was the head Playlist performer talk about how they don't change shows until drydock because they have to cut a hole in the ship to change out the sets. She said it so blithely. But it does make sense that it is routinely done. Anything much bigger than say a bathtub would be difficult to get through the corridors and stairways.

[chengkp75]

13 minutes ago, Indytraveler83 said:

 

As someone who knows these things far better than most of us, do you have any insight on why the "hotel" part of the ship seems to go mostly untouched?

 

Seems commonplace to revitalize public areas and decks, while leaving staterooms and areas like that mostly untouched and aging.  

The cabins are pre-built and installed in the ship as a unit.  Renovation of the cabins is extremely difficult, without taking the whole assembly back out of the ship.  I have worked to repair plumbing behind the walls of cabins, and the wall panels are extremely difficult to dismantle without damage, and out of sequence.  Likewise, the bathrooms are assembled to the cabins as an entire "wet unit", and renovating these is also difficult.  Public areas are typically built in place, and are more easily taken apart for renovation.

[mzloolue]

Aww, I loved Sensation

[tidecat]

Carnival Sensation arrived at Aliaga this morning. The ship is still offshore, presumably being handed over to the recycler.

[mdin]

Not the best picture, but I snapped this on March 18.

 

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, tidecat said:

Carnival Sensation arrived at Aliaga this morning. The ship is still offshore, presumably being handed over to the recycler.

Typically waiting on an extraordinary high tide to get the ship as far on the beach as possible.

[Aplmac]

49 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Typically waiting on an extraordinary high tide

to get the ship as far up on the beach as possible.

 

^ Makes sense.

 

Many people don't realize

that hi and low tides fluctuate in their extent!

Here's an example from my local tide table.

Look how very little difference between low and hi tides

around the 8th. and 9th. of April!

 

and look how humongous the Hi Tides are...

at extreme right of the chart!

THAT's the time when you want to put her up on the beach!

 

[chengkp75]

1 minute ago, Aplmac said:

and look how humongous the Hi Tides are...

at extreme right of the chart!

THAT's the time when you want to put her up on the beach!

 

And, if they can combine a storm with that high tide, so much the better. Was part of a salvage operation in Alaska that waited weeks for the combination of a spring high tide and a storm surge.

[RaiderDuck]

On 3/25/2022 at 10:29 AM, Indytraveler83 said:

The idea that Carnival could be positioned to cannibalize ships from other brands is an interesting one.  It's already doing so with Costa...

It already has done so. The Splendor was originally built for Costa and transferred to Carnival pretty late in the building process. That's why it's so different layout-wise from other Carnival ships.

 

As for retiring the smaller ships: It's a matter of economics. It doesn't cost that much more to sail a bigger ship than a smaller ship (some more fuel and some more personnel), but since you can fit a lot more paying customers on one, you make a lot more money. If you can sail a big ship for 125-150% of the costs of a smaller ship but you make 250% of the revenue, that's a big win. Also, big ships can have more extra-cost dining venues and other profitable amenities. It's not beyond reason that Carnival could even copy NCL at some point and starting having a "Haven" area on the bigger ships, as those are pure moneymakers for the cruise line (i.e. for the cost of a few more concierges and some nicer areas and food, you can charge 4 times as much per cabin).

[Lane Hog]

8 hours ago, RaiderDuck said:

It's not beyond reason that Carnival could even copy NCL at some point and starting having a "Haven" area on the bigger ships, as those are pure moneymakers for the cruise line (i.e. for the cost of a few more concierges and some nicer areas and food, you can charge 4 times as much per cabin).

Isn't that more or less what they've been doing with the Havana suites?

[Dunk]

On 3/21/2022 at 2:36 PM, Itried4498 said:

 

Carnival owns numerous brands including the Carnival, Princess and Holland America brands domestically.  All three brands are treated as completely separate companies.  While it wouldn't make sense to merge the Carnival & Princess brands (two distinct consumers), it would make sense to merge a lot of inner-workings "under the hood."  For example, Carnival could expand its Long Beach terminal (in theory; good luck in practice) to accommodate an additional ship, thus handling all three brands within one facility, utilizing the same employees and same supplies.  Carnival could consolidate Princess' massive Santa Clarita HQ into its Miami HQ.  Call center employees could take calls from multiple brands, etc.  If the industry doesn't rebound, investors will pressure Carnival for synergies like these, or even more large-scale ones like Holland America being consolidated into Princess (similar consumers).

Princess is part of Holland America Group, which also includes Seaborn and P&O Australia. The Princess HQ in Santa Clarita also houses Cunard. There's already a lot of under the hood consolidation. 

[Lane Hog]

I'd have to think that a lot of the HR/Payroll, legal, and procurement (fuel, provisions, uniforms, liquor)  activity is already common at the corporate level.  Brand HQ's presumably deal autonomously with product design, menus, entertainment, operating schedules and port logistics.  That's always going to be somewhat siloed.  You could put it in the same building in MIA, but I don't think you save anything headcount-wise so why not leave it in California where you have the people with experience?

I'd guess that the call centers are all outsourced, so for all we know they could be taking Princess calls on Tuesday, and selling toasters on Wednesday....

[shof515]

According to Marinetraffic, the Sensation is now beached