Princess and covid cases

[villauk]

11 minutes ago, Level six said:

Agree that someone brought it onboard.  I never said you can get covid just being on a ship, only if someone you are in contact with on the ship has covid.  I also stated if there had been no ports, only sea days.  Reread my post. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Level six said:

But when people are on a cruise with 4-5 sea days and they get covid on day 5 and beyond, where could they have gotten it if the incubation period is 2-4 days(with omicron)?

I read your post and I was referring to the other cases that you mentioned (the longer cruise examples). If anything, the staff have to contend with this, cruise after cruise - it’s the nature of the beast when so many different people are in close contact. Then it starts all over again with the next group of cruise passengers.

[Adventures ahead]

To ensure that the least number of asymptomatic passengers would board covid-free with a negative pre-embarkation test, Princess would need to shorten the time to test negative before boarding.  I hope they don't drop the requirement. The more infected people who can be discovered before boarding, the safer the sailing.

[Honolulu Blue]

59 minutes ago, Adventures ahead said:

To ensure that the least number of asymptomatic passengers would board covid-free with a negative pre-embarkation test, Princess would need to shorten the time to test negative before boarding.  I hope they don't drop the requirement. The more infected people who can be discovered before boarding, the safer the sailing.

I agree, but the best we can do is test on embarkation day.  There were some cruise lines that did this, but I think they all dropped it for various reasons.  Who am I to question them?

[caribill]

3 hours ago, Honolulu Blue said:

I agree, but the best we can do is test on embarkation day.  There were some cruise lines that did this, but I think they all dropped it for various reasons.  Who am I to question them?

 

Main reason, in my opinion, eliminate the costs of doing the tests.

[Guest ldtr]

10 hours ago, Honolulu Blue said:

This is a key question, IMHO, and one that I haven't heard answers to.  I assume the cruise lines are tracking it.  My naive opinion (worth about as much as anyone else's who's not an insider) is that these days, 1-2% of cruisers test positive within 14 days of their cruise and cancel out.  This, I estimate, would have gone as high as 10% on certain ships within the height of Omicron.

The cruise lines certainly would know who cancels and submits a positive result.  If they really track it or not who knows.  It is not a parameter tracked by CDC.  Tat is pretty much limited to cases identified on board.  

 

I doubt that it is as high as 1 or 2 percent, unless we were near one of the peaks.  The primary reason why is that most people use antigen tests.  Antigen tests only detect about 50% of asymptomatic infections.  So if you had a ship of 2000 that would mean that 20-40 would have to have tested positive and probably the same amount made it onboard.  That number of initial cases without masking would result in several hundred additional cases by the end of a 7 day cruise with the current strains.  While you may have some groups test positive together, I would expect that you are more likely having around .25 to .5% testing positive (around 4-5 ) with the same number making it onboard.

 

Another way to look at it is that the cruising population is mostly vaccinated with a higher rate than the general population boosted.  So if you take the incidence rate of the general public and multiply that by .7 that would give a likely starting point for the incidence rate in the cruising population.  Then apply that to the number of cruisers and divide by 2.  That would be a good estimate of the number of positive tests prior to the start of the cruise.

[Guest ldtr]

5 hours ago, Adventures ahead said:

To ensure that the least number of asymptomatic passengers would board covid-free with a negative pre-embarkation test, Princess would need to shorten the time to test negative before boarding.  I hope they don't drop the requirement. The more infected people who can be discovered before boarding, the safer the sailing.

Not much impact in that testing the day of departure on the pier is usually antigen with its 50% detection rate.  PCR would be more accurate, but too slow for pier testing (though some lines use PCR to confirm antigen positives.)

[Guest ldtr]

7 hours ago, floridababa said:

I'm sure many people fly all over positive that don't Eve. Know they have covid

Some know and still would fly.

 

Since no test is required, even if some have symptoms many would not test but just convince themself that it is just a cold and as such they would still fly.

[prmssk]

6 minutes ago, ldtr said:

The cruise lines certainly would know who cancels and submits a positive result.  If they really track it or not who knows.  It is not a parameter tracked by CDC.  Tat is pretty much limited to cases identified on board.  

 

I doubt that it is as high as 1 or 2 percent, unless we were near one of the peaks.  The primary reason why is that most people use antigen tests.  Antigen tests only detect about 50% of asymptomatic infections.  So if you had a ship of 2000 that would mean that 20-40 would have to have tested positive and probably the same amount made it onboard.  That number of initial cases without masking would result in several hundred additional cases by the end of a 7 day cruise with the current strains.  While you may have some groups test positive together, I would expect that you are more likely having around .25 to .5% testing positive (around 4-5 ) with the same number making it onboard.

 

Another way to look at it is that the cruising population is mostly vaccinated with a higher rate than the general population boosted.  So if you take the incidence rate of the general public and multiply that by .7 that would give a likely starting point for the incidence rate in the cruising population.  Then apply that to the number of cruisers and divide by 2.  That would be a good estimate of the number of positive tests prior to the start of the cruise.

The other factor here is that most cruisers are likely more cautious in the two weeks leading up to their pre-cruise test and try to to avoid situations where they may be exposed. 
 

Then after they get their negative test, they get on an airplane, stay in a hotel, eat at restaurants, take a shuttle or train, etc. as they travel to the port. 

[prmssk]

8 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Not much impact in that testing the day of departure on the pier is usually antigen with its 50% detection rate.  PCR would be more accurate, but too slow for pier testing (though some lines use PCR to confirm antigen positives.)

Embarkation day testing of either kind also wouldn’t catch the cases from exposure to COVID in the travel to the port. 

[Guest ldtr]

7 hours ago, PacnGoNow said:

Right.  So can those in quarantine or isolation now in the UK just rebook and fly home now, covid positive?

 

As long as the UK does not enforce quarantine in this case nothing to stop them except their own morality.

[dreaminofcruisin]

7 minutes ago, ldtr said:

As long as the UK does not enforce quarantine in this case nothing to stop them except their own morality.

 

True....but there are potentially other non-cruisers on the plane both on the way to the ship and on the way home who never tested, so likely don't know they are positive....

[Guest ldtr]

2 minutes ago, dreaminofcruisin said:

 

True....but there are potentially other non-cruisers on the plane both on the way to the ship and on the way home who never tested, so likely don't know they are positive....

Sure, but there is a difference between someone that is totally asymptomatic and does not know that they are positive, and someone that knowingly climbs onto a plane knowing that they are positive and most likely infectious.

 

There is also the 3rd category of someone showing symptoms, but climbs onto a plane convincing themselves that it is just a cold and therefore do not confirm that they are either positive or negative by testing.

 

Sounds like your view is that since their might be positive people on board because they have not tested that they might as well fly even if they know they are positive.

 

Modern ethics, its ok because someone else might do it.

[villauk]

3 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Modern ethics, its ok because someone else might do it.

True, but there is no law preventing them doing this and so no requirements to do so. You can go to work over here if you test positive as it’s only a recommendation to stay at home for 5 days. Some may say that if they can go to work with Covid and are expected to, then they can go on holiday/vacation with it too. I’m not saying it’s okay,  just pointing out the thought process of some passengers. All around you there are positive cases that you are unaware of, and some don’t even know themselves that they are positive - it makes no difference as you can catch it off either category; I think that’s dreaminofcruisin was highlighting.

[Daniel A]

7 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Not the best analogy ever unless people are staying days and days and days and days at that local supermarket.

Let me see if I can simplify this for you.  You have just made my point.  People wouldn't only spend days at a time in the canned food aisle without ever leaving the store at all.  What percentage of cruisers spend "days and days and days and days" onboard a ship?  Of course, people get off the ship and visit other parts of the world all having different vaccination levels, positivity rates, and public health effectiveness, but do we blame our illness on our onshore activity, or do we blame the person sitting next to us in the dining room onboard?  The whole point is just because you tested positive either onboard or at home after a cruise doesn't mean you were exposed on the ship or in the canned food aisle.

 

6 hours ago, Level six said:

But when people are on a cruise with 4-5 sea days and they get covid on day 5 and beyond, where could they have gotten it if the incubation period is 2-4 days(with omicron)?  Being in the grocery store, a restaurant or places like that are no comparison to being on a ship for days on end.

I do agree that we can't really say where people got it most times, but on a ship there is no other place if there have only been sea days.  And the most cases have been on ships with many sea days (Hawaii, TA, etc) 

There is research that shows that positivity on a test may not show up for as long as a week after an exposure.  Where did you find the statistic that most cases of Covid are on ships with many sea days?  (I would dispute such an assertion.) Because some people get Covid on longer cruises doesn't mean the virus was already onboard and Princess has made them sick.  Passengers bring the virus onboard from somewhere else, including ports of call.  All of my comments on this thread are reacting to the OP's first sentence starting this thread: "It seems that the cases are going up and princess once again cannot handle things."  All I'm saying is just because you tested positive either onboard or after returning home does not mean you got the exposure onboard the Princess ship.  Don't blame Princess for what others got either before boarding or in a port of call.  Many, many more passengers experience a cruise without contracting Covid.

[PacnGoNow]

6 minutes ago, villauk said:

True, but there is no law preventing them doing this and so no requirements to do so. You can go to work over here if you test positive as it’s only a recommendation to stay at home for 5 days. Some may say that if they can go to work with Covid and are expected to, then they can go on holiday/vacation with it too. I’m not saying it’s okay,  just pointing out the thought process of some passengers. All around you there are positive cases that you are unaware of, and some don’t even know themselves that they are positive - it makes no difference as you can catch it off either category; I think that’s dreaminofcruisin was highlighting.

Where are you?  The UK?

[villauk]

5 minutes ago, PacnGoNow said:

Where are you?  The UK?

Yes, and before you say, no, I personally wouldn’t go into work if I tested positive but I do know of some employers who expect their staff to, unless they are incapable because of symptoms.

Edited June 13, 2022 by villauk

[prmssk]

2 minutes ago, PacnGoNow said:

Where are you?  The UK?

CDC has the same 5 day quarantine recommendation in the US as long as you are fever free on day 5 and your symptoms are improving.

[PacnGoNow]

2 minutes ago, villauk said:

Yes.

Wow.  Most companies around here go by the CDC recommendation that 5 days in isolation and if no fever at the end if 5, then return to work days 6-10 masked.

 

Not all, but most.  

[PacnGoNow]

1 minute ago, prmssk said:

CDC has the same 5 day quarantine recommendation in the US as long as you are fever free on day 5 and your symptoms are improving.

So funny, I was just typing at the same time. lol 

[villauk]

Just now, PacnGoNow said:

Wow.  Most companies around here go by the CDC recommendation that 5 days in isolation and if no fever at the end if 5, then return to work days 6-10 masked.

 

Not all, but most.  

 

You would be hard pressed to find many masked individuals here any longer (unsure what it’s like in the capital but I expect it to be similar to the rest of the UK).

[voljeep]

On 6/12/2022 at 11:26 AM, floridababa said:

It seems that the cases are going up and princess once again cannot handle things. I know Island Princess having lots of cases. What about other ships?

Do they not have a plan to keep the passengers informed? Quarantined passengers are not being told anything.

Hope someone starts straightening things or they will be losing passengers in the future.

5 days before cruise - self test

4 days before cruise - self test

3 days before cruise - self test

2 days before cruise - proctored test

1 day before cruise - proctored test

day of cruise - self test

day 1 - day 7 of cruise self test each day

 

all negative - 

 

limited contact with crew - just normal interaction

 

test  day after cruise - positive

 

blame Princess

[Adventures ahead]

1 hour ago, ldtr said:

Not much impact in that testing the day of departure on the pier is usually antigen with its 50% detection rate.  PCR would be more accurate, but too slow for pier testing (though some lines use PCR to confirm antigen positives.)

Thanks

[venussuz]

On 6/12/2022 at 8:59 PM, Priszm said:

I missed the thread.  Can you point me to it? My parents are currently on Island. They were supposed to stay on on Monday for the next trip, but dad tested positive yesterday.  Communication from mom before that said there were at least 40 cases of covid and at least 12 cabins on their deck with it (unknown which deck).

Based on the addition of cabins on the 5th floor (Covid cabins were originally on 8) and the ship then telling positive people to stay in their cabin (often with a cabin mate who tested negative - I was in that group and my niece roommate was able to sleep on her parent's sofa the last night), the number of people who were positive even before the mass testing of those continuing on the next leg was a good deal more than 40. My area, promenade deck art, had 5 rooms with tables outside the door by Saturday morning. Mine joined them the next day. 

 

Two to three hundred sounds right, based on the two full buses that left and the many who were left behind, waiting for transport to their Covid hotel. 

[latserrof]

6 hours ago, Adventures ahead said:

The more infected people who can be discovered before boarding, the safer the sailing.

It's as simple as that.  Why do so many people not get it?

[CruisingAwayTheBucketList]

45 minutes ago, voljeep said:

5 days before cruise - self test

4 days before cruise - self test

3 days before cruise - self test

2 days before cruise - proctored test

1 day before cruise - proctored test

day of cruise - self test

day 1 - day 7 of cruise self test each day

 

all negative - 

 

limited contact with crew - just normal interaction

 

test  day after cruise - positive

 

blame Princess

Wow - I guess someone has to be blamed.