Carnival’s Next Class of Ship

[jimbo5544]

20 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Ok. Last time they were expecting 1-2 ships per year going forward starting in 2027. But a pause in new builds does allow Carnival to knock down debt.

Bingo

[jimbo5544]

2 hours ago, BasicSailor said:

I'm not too sure on the Good News. If the builds are to reduce dept, then we all know what type of ships are making the most money.

All a point of reference.  CCL has absolutely no choice but to reduce debt.  Their last borrow required them to put up 9 of their latest builds as collateral.  That is not a power position to be in….unless you are the lender.  

[jsglow]

2 hours ago, BasicSailor said:

I'm not too sure on the Good News. If the builds are to reduce dept, then we all know what type of ships are making the most money.

The good news is that they are generating FCF and expect to continue that on a going forward basis.  I believe the goal is to get back to investment grade and then to maintain that status. They've already successfully renewed their Revolver and expect to be able to meet all scheduled amortization requirements on their existing debt.  They understand that Mission #1 right now is to improve their Balance Sheet. They can make future decisions regarding Cap Ex (ship construction) once that's well underway.  And they're comforted by the re-deployment success (Costa) they've had to date.  They also spoke of the near FLA land based Cap Ex associated with Grand Bahamas and HMC; both really good ideas.  They further confirmed that ship retirement is over for the time being.  While not discussed or asked about, I'd anticipate that they are looking at 'life extension' strategies knowing full well their current ship inventory (plus 5) is exactly what they'll have until late in the decade at the earliest.  So I really think your going to see more initiatives like Costa by Carnival and 'Sunshining' both to keep up the excitement level and to refurbish aging ships still needed for medium to long term service. The toughest challenges that they continue to face are the fact that European cruising is about a year behind the recovery curve of North America, that Australia is 2 years behind and that the Far East is still dead in the water. 

 

It was a very upbeat presentation.  I've been in many like it.  And I'm optimistic both about their realistic and achievable plans and their progress to date. Recovery is a very long, slow process. CCL is on the road.  Of course there will be setbacks along the way.

Edited April 2, 2023 by jsglow

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, jimbo5544 said:

All a point of reference.  CCL has absolutely no choice but to reduce debt.  Their last borrow required them to put up 9 of their latest builds as collateral.  That is not a power position to be in….unless you are the lender.  

CCL also has more cash on hand than Royal and NCL combined, none have great credit positions, yet Carnival never seems to run out of credit and even arranged a new revolving credit agreement a few weeks ago

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/carnival-corporation--plc-announces-arrangement-of-new-forward-starting-2-1-billion-revolving-credit-facility-301759157.html

 

Nobody wants to foreclose on cruise ships. That could sink the lenders.

 

 

[CarnivalShips480]

Does anyone have great names for a new build? They could always use former ship names of course. Not sure when the Fantasy class names will be eligible for new ships. Anyway, ideas?

[BlerkOne]

The best names are those used by (or similar to) Royal and NCL since Carnival anything would come first, alphabetically.

[Guest BasicSailor]

1 hour ago, jimbo5544 said:

That is not a power position to be in….unless you are the lender.

Thats gonna shake quite a few apples off their tree😮

[Guest BasicSailor]

9 minutes ago, CarnivalShips480 said:

Does anyone have great names for a new build? They could always use former ship names of course. Not sure when the Fantasy class names will be eligible for new ships. Anyway, ideas?

Carnival InDebt.😇

[Lee Cruiser]

43 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

CCL also has more cash on hand than Royal and NCL combined

They also have more debt than the others combined

 

[Cruising_Addict]

On 3/31/2023 at 8:58 PM, slavens_09 said:

I think they will try to come up with something that is closer to matching Icon of the Seas. 

I certainly hope not. I love that Carnival’s ships still look like ships. Not the floating monstrosities that Royal tries to pass off as ships. 

[BlerkOne]

44 minutes ago, Lee Cruiser said:

They also have more debt than the others combined

 

That's debatable.

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, BasicSailor said:

Carnival InDebt.😇

24 bill at the high point.  Not sure where they are now but def less

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

CCL also has more cash on hand than Royal and NCL combined, none have great credit positions, yet Carnival never seems to run out of credit and even arranged a new revolving credit agreement a few weeks ago

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/carnival-corporation--plc-announces-arrangement-of-new-forward-starting-2-1-billion-revolving-credit-facility-301759157.html

 

Nobody wants to foreclose on cruise ships. That could sink the lenders.

 

 

Agreed, the big boy in the room needs the most cash, it does figure.  

[tidecat]

1 hour ago, CarnivalShips480 said:

Does anyone have great names for a new build? They could always use former ship names of course. Not sure when the Fantasy class names will be eligible for new ships. Anyway, ideas?

I can't see the Fantasy class ship names being reused while Elation and Paradise are still in service. While Carnival's 60th anniversary in 2032 may not be a big as deal as its 50th, I could see that being the perfect impetus for a fresh batch of nostalgic ship names. It might even be possible to mirror the Fantasy class delivery schedule where every ship is basically a 40th anniversary commemorative of its namesake (i.e. Fantasy in 2030, Ecstasy in 2031, etc.).

 

Aside from that, I think we'd see more names associated with sunshine and/or happiness like Aurora, Brilliance, Euphoria, Joy, etc. I'd also expect a few Vista-class names to be kept on the bench like Reflection, Meridian, and Spectacle just in case the Italian Style concept needs to be retired, or if CSSC/Adora flops and additional Vista-class vessels become available.

[Squirreladd]

49 minutes ago, tidecat said:

If CSSC/Adora flops and additional Vista-class vessels become available.

According to Wikipedia (the most trusted place on the internet) one of those ships was completed already and launched in 2021. Are they just sitting on that?

[tidecat]

1 hour ago, Squirreladd said:

According to Wikipedia (the most trusted place on the internet) one of those ships was completed already and launched in 2021. Are they just sitting on that?

My understanding Adora has Costa Atlantica and Costa Mediterranea. The former seems to be puttering between Italy and France, while the latter has been in Cyprus since mid-February (possibly in a wet dock given the reported draft from AIS). There may or may not be an order for a Spirit-class (or something similar) new build. There is definitely an order for wo Vista-class ships, one of which is nearing completion. Right now there is nothing in service; even the Adora name was only announced fairly recently.

[Guest BasicSailor]

10 hours ago, tidecat said:

I can't see the Fantasy class ship names being reused while Elation and Paradise are still in service.

My feelings are if they're past history, then the names will be used. But I truly hope none of the Fantasy class names are reused.

[CarnivalShips480]

2 hours ago, BasicSailor said:

My feelings are if they're past history, then the names will be used. But I truly hope none of the Fantasy class names are reused.

Why not?

[staceyglow]

2 hours ago, BasicSailor said:

My feelings are if they're past history, then the names will be used. But I truly hope none of the Fantasy class names are reused.

On one of my first cruises back in the aughts, the CD mentioned at the cruise-end party that Carnival was seeking input for names for new ships that end in -ation.  

 

Either he was joking or they dropped that idea, because no new ships meeting that criteria were ever launched.  Or maybe because the suggestions they were getting were along the lines of Intoxication, Inebriation, etc.  😆

[tidecat]

49 minutes ago, staceyglow said:

On one of my first cruises back in the aughts, the CD mentioned at the cruise-end party that Carnival was seeking input for names for new ships that end in -ation.  

 

Either he was joking or they dropped that idea, because no new ships meeting that criteria were ever launched.  Or maybe because the suggestions they were getting were along the lines of Intoxication, Inebriation, etc.  😆

Carnival should have changed Luminosa to Illumination

[Lee Cruiser]

18 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

24 bill at the high point.  Not sure where they are now but def less

Carnival's debt is over $35 billion

 

Carnival ended the first quarter with $5.4 billion in cash and $35.1 billion in debt, for net debt of $29.7 billion. At year-end 2019 (with Carnival's fiscal year ending in November), just prior to the pandemic, net debt was $11 billion.

 

 

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/carnival-beats-expectations-but-its-stock-still-doesn-t-merit-a-party-16119631?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

[Winchester Ranger]

Something with more jail cells for the 3 day cruises.

[jimbo5544]

3 hours ago, Winchester Ranger said:

Something with more jail cells for the 3 day cruises.

Thanks for adding to the conversation

[n6uqqq]

22 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

24 bill at the high point.  Not sure where they are now but def less

Internet searches show a long term debt of 32-35 billion currently. Maybe I am missing something here?

[Guest BasicSailor]

8 hours ago, CarnivalShips480 said:

Why not?

To me if you retire a ship, then the name should be retired as well.

Just a though to share but my opinion is a drop in the bucket.