Excellent Quarterly Performance

[Elaine5715]

15 minutes ago, ninjacat123 said:

When did that happen?  I haven't seen fuel surcharges on my cruises from 2010 to now.  Maybe I was lucky...

2007..  $5 a day per person.  They announced it ahead of time so if you booked before it started, you didn't get charged.  Needless to say, they probably raised a ton of cash as people rushed to book ahead

[Joebucks]

On 9/29/2023 at 1:26 PM, weezal said:

wall st disagrees
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ccl

 

The whole market is in red. I swear, about half of the discussion of Carnival stock is actually discussing the market. When the market goes up, this place cheers Carnival. When the market goes down, they don't know why Carnival is dipping. 

 

On 9/29/2023 at 4:02 PM, firefly333 said:

Rcl they also said highest ever. But still has no pe, no pe means a overall loss, paying off debt faster. 

 

If earnings were that terrific the stock wouldnt drop everytime they announce earnings. 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCL?p=CCL&.tsrc=fin-srch

 

Inflation means higher than ever prices and higher than ever costs. Oil and wages up up and away headwinds besides the debt. 

 

I guess let's cheer on ever higher cruise prices? .. until they have a profit at least forecast in the near future hard to get too excited. 

 

This is way more doom and gloom than called for. All-time high in revenue, making a health profit, paying down significant debts. Those are all wins. They still have a ways to go to reach pre-pandemic financial stability. Oil and wages are up for everyone. That is not a cruise-specific issue. 

[Illbcruzn4life]

2 hours ago, Elaine5715 said:

2007..  $5 a day per person.  They announced it ahead of time so if you booked before it started, you didn't get charged.  Needless to say, they probably raised a ton of cash as people rushed to book ahead

see it was only 16 years ago.

[RD64]

On 9/29/2023 at 3:34 PM, ninjacat123 said:

Thanks for posting! Does the statement below mean the highest Third quarter or highest quarter ever?  Thx!

• Third quarter revenues hit an all-time high of $6.9 billion.

Revenues are not profits

[RD64]

Another interesting take-away…. Mention was made regarding P&O - another Carnival company - occupancy at that exceptionally high level, but yield - which is far more important is still not quite what it should be.

 

What does this mean? Cabins are full - but at less than optimum rates, and I would think that onboard spending is also quite not what it should be.

[Elaine5715]

2 hours ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

see it was only 16 years ago.

like yesterday

[firefly333]

6 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Hedging is a guaranteed gamble. Cruise ships are adding shore power as a way to cut back on fuel consumption. Whether that really saves anything as far as the planet goes depends on how the electricity is generated. It was strange on our recent Miracle cruise when they switched over to shore power - the ship went dark for the minute or so it took for the transition to take place.

 

Carnival knows better than armchair admirals what is best for their business model.

 

"Management explained that the company has never employed fuel hedges, nor does Carnival think it's a bright idea for a cruise line to hedge against rising fuel costs. CEO Donald remarked that Carnival believed in maintaining its economic freedom, meaning that when a company purchases directional futures contracts on commodities, it's sacrificing profit if commodities drop instead of rise. Donald remarked that Carnival never tries to play "the fuel game," as "even oil companies don't know where the fuel prices are going.""

 

Meanwhile, I think I read Carnival is running at 109% occupancy? And that's the average across 9 brands.

 

Besides, the ticket contract is clear that Carnival can pass increased fuel costs onto cruisers if the price of oil goes high enough.

Even one of the analysts reviewing ccl earnings said carnival cites fuel as a headwind possibly. 

 

I've traded oil stocks many many years and before covid like clockwork oil and oil stocks go up by December, sell in January rinse and repeat every winter year after year, like clockwork. While covid could disrupt this pattern, imo doubtful. I know you also know oil, but there is a pattern. 

 

If earnings were all that great stock would have not dropped further. No one is buying what carnival is saying are the greatest ever earnings. Only one side of the equation.  People want to know when carnival will be profitable. Have a pe again. Not a minus sign next to earnings. 

 

Let's watch nclh and rcl when they report and see how they react for comparison. 

 

And yes I remember fuel surcharges. It's not like I just started cruising with carnival. $150 a barrel oil wasnt a nice surprise. 

[firefly333]

3 hours ago, Joebucks said:

 

The whole market is in red. I swear, about half of the discussion of Carnival stock is actually discussing the market. When the market goes up, this place cheers Carnival. When the market goes down, they don't know why Carnival is dipping. 

 

 

This is way more doom and gloom than called for. All-time high in revenue, making a health profit, paying down significant debts. Those are all wins. They still have a ways to go to reach pre-pandemic financial stability. Oil and wages are up for everyone. That is not a cruise-specific issue. 

Last earnings ccl also dropped and sold off. I'm sure traders are wrong though lol. 

[BlerkOne]

52 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Even one of the analysts reviewing ccl earnings said carnival cites fuel as a headwind possibly. 

 

 

Never met an analyst that had any experience operating a cruise line. Of course, if analysts actually had a crystal ball, they would be former analysts and actively retired.

[BlerkOne]

51 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Last earnings ccl also dropped and sold off. I'm sure traders are wrong though lol. 

What's the reason for the RCL sell off?

[ninjacat123]

2 hours ago, RD64 said:

Revenues are not profits

My question was  Does the statement below mean the highest Third quarter or highest quarter ever?  Or is that beyond our scope of knowledge?  Thanks!

[tidecat]

2 minutes ago, ninjacat123 said:

My question was  Does the statement below mean the highest Third quarter or highest quarter ever?  Or is that beyond our scope of knowledge?  Thanks!

It is the highest quarter ever across all quarters in terms of revenue. Carnival's revenue tends to be seasonal, and Q3 (June-August) tends to capture the summer vacation crowds in North America and Europe. The previous high was $6.53 Billion in Q3 2019.

 

You can see this on the second graph on this page, which has not been updated for the most recent quarter:

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CCL/carnival/revenue

[tidecat]

On 9/29/2023 at 4:02 PM, firefly333 said:

Rcl they also said highest ever. But still has no pe, no pe means a overall loss, paying off debt faster. 

Most sites use trailing twelve months (TTM) to look at metrics like Price/Earnings ratio (PE). In this case, Carnival had a loss of $0.65 per share in Q3 2022 and replaced it with a profit of $0.79 per share. For Q4 we should see a loss of around $0.10 to $0.18/share, compared to a $1.27 per share in Q4 2022. Unfortunately the first two quarters of 2023 were losses totaling $0.87/share, so the TTM earnings will still be below zero. This should be fixed by Q1 2024, as Carnival would be rolling off a loss of $0.55/share and presumably replacing it with a profit or a much smaller loss.

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. There are plenty of things that could cause you to steer clear of an individual stock, but relying solely on P/E can be dangerous:

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/03/16/why-the-pe-ratio-might-be-useless.aspx

[firefly333]

10 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

What's the reason for the RCL sell off?

It sold off with the sector, and will when nclh reports too. If you noticed last rcl earnings it jumped 12 pts, not dropped. Hope it drops a tad more ready to buy back before rcl earnings nov 1. I expect the opposite reaction to rcl earnings as to ccl earnings. Sales opened for adults only area of coco cay, not free darn, revenue maker. Icon next years april 2025 to april 2026 already released for sale early. 

 

Watch, and see how rcl reacts. But first another sell off for nclh like last time?

 

See ya all when I get home. I'm on my free wifi days here on allure, love this perk, even though I only get 2 days. Turn around day. It's too early. Getting off today and already docked here in Galveston, uggh. Too early to be up and eating. Next harmony, then my 2 week dream journey cruise on carnival. Getting close. Time to pay carnival off. Looking forward to dream ports.

 

Playing rcl for a earnings pop as a stock trader. Never can understand some rcl people who know group rates are much cheaper, but say they need control and book direct. Good for them, good for earnings. We got 1k off wonder on group rates. Different pricing structure. For rcl a TA is best. Carnival direct is fine. See ya all when I get home unless departure delayed. Last sunday we had 2 stowaways delayed us.

[firefly333]

8 hours ago, tidecat said:

Most sites use trailing twelve months (TTM) to look at metrics like Price/Earnings ratio (PE). In this case, Carnival had a loss of $0.65 per share in Q3 2022 and replaced it with a profit of $0.79 per share. For Q4 we should see a loss of around $0.10 to $0.18/share, compared to a $1.27 per share in Q4 2022. Unfortunately the first two quarters of 2023 were losses totaling $0.87/share, so the TTM earnings will still be below zero. This should be fixed by Q1 2024, as Carnival would be rolling off a loss of $0.55/share and presumably replacing it with a profit or a much smaller loss.

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. There are plenty of things that could cause you to steer clear of an individual stock, but relying solely on P/E can be dangerous:

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/03/16/why-the-pe-ratio-might-be-useless.aspx

I dont think anyone relys exclusively on pe, I was just saying people want to hear from carnival when they will be turning a profit more in their earnings call. I'm in heavy enough go ccl. Being patient. In above $21. 

[jimbo5544]

11 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Last earnings ccl also dropped and sold off. I'm sure traders are wrong though lol. 

There is more fact than fiction in that statement

[jimbo5544]

2 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I dont think anyone relys exclusively on pe, I was just saying people want to hear from carnival when they will be turning a profit more in their earnings call. I'm in heavy enough go ccl. Being patient. In above $21. 

Takes a good while to eat up all those future OBC’s that churned and churned.

[Sailor75]

23 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Last earnings ccl also dropped and sold off. I'm sure traders are wrong though lol. 

In June? Didn't Carnival go up? I mean I'm not watching it all the time since I'm not upside down on it lol.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Sailor75

[tidecat]

17 hours ago, Sailor75 said:

In June? Didn't Carnival go up? I mean I'm not watching it all the time since I'm not upside down on it lol.

It went down the day earnings came out, but started going up the next day before peaking at $19.04 in early July.