Carnival Cruise Line president says 'there's always opportunity' for company in Philadelphia

[Honolulu Blue]

15 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

What the heck does bashing of the CCL President have to do with cruising put of Philly, talk about off topic.  Mods?

I wasn't bashing Ms. Duffy with my remark.  I'm sorry you felt that way.  

[tel2]

We cruised out of Philly multiple times in the early 2000’s time frame.   At the time, most of the major lines had ships in Baltimore and NY/Bayonne, but Philly still seemed to do well.  All of the cruises typically sold out.  The port is very convenient to the airport, and of course, to south Jersey and Philly/ suburban Philly county residents.  It is located in the old navy shipyard, which is now a huge commercial development - office complexes, restaurants etc.     Cruise liners did not pull out of Philly because of competition reasons.  My understanding is thatPhilly closed the port due to a dispute with New Jersey regarding the cost/responsibility to dredge the river.   That has now been dealt with, allowing the port to re-open.  

[jimbo5544]

4 hours ago, tel2 said:

We cruised out of Philly multiple times in the early 2000’s time frame.   At the time, most of the major lines had ships in Baltimore and NY/Bayonne, but Philly still seemed to do well.  All of the cruises typically sold out.  The port is very convenient to the airport, and of course, to south Jersey and Philly/ suburban Philly county residents.  It is located in the old navy shipyard, which is now a huge commercial development - office complexes, restaurants etc.     Cruise liners did not pull out of Philly because of competition reasons.  My understanding is thatPhilly closed the port due to a dispute with New Jersey regarding the cost/responsibility to dredge the river.   That has now been dealt with, allowing the port to re-open.  

Interesting update.  Be curious to see how it all works out.

[NYcruzzer]

On 9/6/2024 at 9:42 PM, jimbo5544 said:

That and $7.99 will buy you a happy meal at McDonalds.  I was not comparing lines (a whole different thread), just stating the facts. IT does not work for Carnival. If you want to sail from the tundra during the winter,  go cruise on NCL or RCCL, 2 COLD days going down and 2 COLD days coming back.  They can have it. 

Don't forget MSC Meraviglia sails year-round from Brooklyn cruise terminal . So there's a 3rd choice for Tundra sailings during the Winter. Between the 3 plenty of cabins to fill. Carnival smart to send Venezia south for the Winter. 

[jimbo5544]

8 hours ago, NYcruzzer said:

Don't forget MSC Meraviglia sails year-round from Brooklyn cruise terminal . So there's a 3rd choice for Tundra sailings during the Winter. Between the 3 plenty of cabins to fill. Carnival smart to send Venezia south for the Winter. 

All of that true.  I get people wanting local product, and sailing out of New York is a wonderful sail away.  When you have at least 4 days of cold (two going and two coming) and take into consideration the winds, rough sea potential (without even considering storms (I remember when there was pics of room stewards shoveling off snow from balconies), the experience is marginal at best (IMHO).  This is not a us vs them discussion, but more of where (in Carnival’s eyes) they can get most revenue, sailing 70% from winter sailings out of NYC or 100% our of PC).  If three lines want to dedicate ships during this time with soft demand, good for them.  

 

[JMAE]

If CCL is truly looking to Phil as a departure port, sounds to me they have future plans to maintain smaller ships within their fleet, since the Delaware Memorial Bridge has an air draft of 166'.  

[jimbo5544]

44 minutes ago, JMAE said:

If CCL is truly looking to Phil as a departure port, sounds to me they have future plans to maintain smaller ships within their fleet, since the Delaware Memorial Bridge has an air draft of 166'.  

There is ample opportunity for smaller ships, they frankly could use more.

Edited September 13 by jimbo5544

[JMAE]

54 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

There is ample opportunity for smaller ships, they frankly could use more.

I agree, we love the Spirit class!

[tidecat]

30 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

There is ample opportunity for smaller ships, they frankly could use more.

Getting the Spirit class out of ports without height restrictions like Mobile, Galveston, and Seattle could free up a ship for Philadelphia.

[jimbo5544]

5 hours ago, tidecat said:

Getting the Spirit class out of ports without height restrictions like Mobile, Galveston, and Seattle could free up a ship for Philadelphia.

No argument, there are a few other options as well.

[tidecat]

On 9/6/2024 at 7:28 PM, UPNYGuy said:

Also, don’t forget, there is Jacksonville, Tampa, Port Canaveral, and Miami all having ports in Florida. To a certain degree, all of these ports cannibalize traffic from each other. 
 

But it is better to cannibalize your own pax, rather than let them go to other lines. 

I don't buy that they necessarily will cannibalize their own passengers.

 

The Jacksonville Metro by itself is 1.6 million people, but more importantly, is within driving distance of most of the state of Georgia, not to mention some other parts of North Florida. The population of Georgia by itself is nearly 11 million. Even if we give Jacksonville only 25% credit for Georgia (Mobile, New Orleans, Charleston), that's effectively a pool of 4.5 million potential cruise passengers.

 

If we treat Port Canaveral as part of the Orlando metro that is over 2.5 million people. Of course we know that there is a significantly larger portion of cruise passengers who fly in from outside the local market as about 75 million people visit the region each year.

 

The Tampa Metro is 3.2 million. It obviously does a fair amount of fly-in cruise traffic even though "only" 26-27 million people visit the region each year.

 

The Miami Metro is over 6 million people and of course receives a significant number of cruise passengers from outside the market as part of the nearly 20 million visitors to the region each year.

 

Baltimore (not even counting the separate DC metro) is 2.8 million people. The combined Baltimore/Washington CSA is closer to 10 million.

 

The New York CSA that includes the northern part of New Jersey is over 19 million.

 

The separate Philadelphia Metro is over 6 million people. The area also receives more than 40 million tourists annually. There's no reason Philadelphia can't stand on its own as a cruise market - Carnival only needs about 125,000 people each year of the 46 million people who either live in or visit the area to fill a ship - technically less by the time you factor in drydocks or longer sailings that cut down on the number of departures.

 

After researching this, maybe the real question might be what it would take to get Carnival in Boston? Tourism is not far behind Tampa/St. Pete and the metro population is about 4.5 million.

[UPNYGuy]

41 minutes ago, tidecat said:

 

After researching this, maybe the real question might be what it would take to get Carnival in Boston? Tourism is not far behind Tampa/St. Pete and the metro population is about 4.5 million.

I think the main issue getting carnival into Boston is where do they go? You really have 3 options that are mass-market viable. Canada/NE, Bermuda, and Bahamas. All of these options are well served already, and if carnival entered into that market, all it would do is depress the ADR (imo). I personally feel that they have a better shot of getting New York City to work year-round than they do going out of Boston even part of the year. 

[UPNYGuy]

20 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

No argument, there are a few other options as well.

Seattle IIRC used to have a freedom class. The only issue with the freedom versus spirit is the spirits have higher balcony percentage. In Alaska, that is much more desirable. 

[UPNYGuy]

On 9/13/2024 at 10:48 AM, jimbo5544 said:

There is ample opportunity for smaller ships, they frankly could use more.

I like the larger ships, but I definitely do not go out of my way to avoid the smaller ones. My wife and I thoroughly enjoy the fantasy and spirit class ships. 

[jimbo5544]

3 hours ago, tidecat said:

I don't buy that they necessarily will cannibalize their own passengers.

 

The Jacksonville Metro by itself is 1.6 million people, but more importantly, is within driving distance of most of the state of Georgia, not to mention some other parts of North Florida. The population of Georgia by itself is nearly 11 million. Even if we give Jacksonville only 25% credit for Georgia (Mobile, New Orleans, Charleston), that's effectively a pool of 4.5 million potential cruise passengers.

 

If we treat Port Canaveral as part of the Orlando metro that is over 2.5 million people. Of course we know that there is a significantly larger portion of cruise passengers who fly in from outside the local market as about 75 million people visit the region each year.

 

The Tampa Metro is 3.2 million. It obviously does a fair amount of fly-in cruise traffic even though "only" 26-27 million people visit the region each year.

 

The Miami Metro is over 6 million people and of course receives a significant number of cruise passengers from outside the market as part of the nearly 20 million visitors to the region each year.

 

Baltimore (not even counting the separate DC metro) is 2.8 million people. The combined Baltimore/Washington CSA is closer to 10 million.

 

The New York CSA that includes the northern part of New Jersey is over 19 million.

 

The separate Philadelphia Metro is over 6 million people. The area also receives more than 40 million tourists annually. There's no reason Philadelphia can't stand on its own as a cruise market - Carnival only needs about 125,000 people each year of the 46 million people who either live in or visit the area to fill a ship - technically less by the time you factor in drydocks or longer sailings that cut down on the number of departures.

 

After researching this, maybe the real question might be what it would take to get Carnival in Boston? Tourism is not far behind Tampa/St. Pete and the metro population is about 4.5 million.

Galveston is the real sweet spot in that equation.  Well over 10 million within a 3 hour drive (Houston, Dallas and San Antonio and add in the

smaller ones.  

[tidecat]

45 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

Galveston is the real sweet spot in that equation.  Well over 10 million within a 3 hour drive (Houston, Dallas and San Antonio and add in the

smaller ones.  

Galveston (Houston Metro, 6 million residents and 50 million visitors) actually underperforms relative to Port Canaveral (Orlando Metro, 2.5 million residents and 75 million visitors) as Galveston only had 1.49 million cruise passengers in 2023 while Port Canaveral had 6.8 million.

 

Technically Tampa outperforms Galveston as it has only about half as large a metro area and gets about half as many visitors, yet is not far behind with 1.2 million cruise passengers.

 

Given that Philadelphia has a comparable metro population to Houston, and receives about 40 million visitors, the ceiling for Philadelphia theoretically would basically be close to where Galveston is now. Weather and navigational issues (bridge clearance) will prevent Philadelphia from getting to Galveston's level in the short-to-medium term, but if Carnival gets in early enough it can be a license to print money.

[Laszlo]

I can get to the Philly cruise terminal in about 30-40 minutes. The NCL itinerary stinks. A day and a half in Bermuda? No thanks, most people want the three days they get now going out of NYC

[jimbo5544]

7 minutes ago, Laszlo said:

I can get to the Philly cruise terminal in about 30-40 minutes. The NCL itinerary stinks. A day and a half in Bermuda? No thanks, most people want the three days they get now going out of NYC

Actual logistics are what they are.  Ports like Bermuda have the ability t cherry pick how many ships they want (they also have a limited calendar market timeframe).  They can only go so fast and so far and when you are on the bottom of the pile in terms of days available in port.  My recollection of number of days in port in Bermuda (CCL anyways) was 2 days, but it is really a mot point.

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, tidecat said:

Galveston (Houston Metro, 6 million residents and 50 million visitors) actually underperforms relative to Port Canaveral (Orlando Metro, 2.5 million residents and 75 million visitors) as Galveston only had 1.49 million cruise passengers in 2023 while Port Canaveral had 6.8 million.

 

Technically Tampa outperforms Galveston as it has only about half as large a metro area and gets about half as many visitors, yet is not far behind with 1.2 million cruise passengers.

 

Given that Philadelphia has a comparable metro population to Houston, and receives about 40 million visitors, the ceiling for Philadelphia theoretically would basically be close to where Galveston is now. Weather and navigational issues (bridge clearance) will prevent Philadelphia from getting to Galveston's level in the short-to-medium term, but if Carnival gets in early enough it can be a license to print money.

Not sure what “outperforms” means.  That said, I have heard Carnival execs say Galveston was the best performing port, but whatever.  I would bet the ranch with anyone on Philly outperforming any Carnival port, especially if a single Spirit or Fantasy class ship would ever someday sail from there.  But will move on.

[tidecat]

5 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

Not sure what “outperforms” means.  That said, I have heard Carnival execs say Galveston was the best performing port, but whatever.  I would bet the ranch with anyone on Philly outperforming any Carnival port, especially if a single Spirit or Fantasy class ship would ever someday sail from there.  But will move on.

Mathematically speaking, a resident of or visitor to Tampa is more likely to take a cruise than a resident of or visitor to Houston/Galveston.

 

Fares and/or onboard spending can be higher in Galveston simply because of Galveston doesn't have the quantity of inventory that Port Canaveral or Miami does. If Galveston had as many cruisers relative to the population/tourist base as Port Canaveral did, it would have 5 million passengers a year instead of 1.5 million. Even getting to Tampa's level would be an extra million passengers compared to what Galveston does now.

[jimbo5544]

2 hours ago, tidecat said:

Mathematically speaking, a resident of or visitor to Tampa is more likely to take a cruise than a resident of or visitor to Houston/Galveston.

 

Fares and/or onboard spending can be higher in Galveston simply because of Galveston doesn't have the quantity of inventory that Port Canaveral or Miami does. If Galveston had as many cruisers relative to the population/tourist base as Port Canaveral did, it would have 5 million passengers a year instead of 1.5 million. Even getting to Tampa's level would be an extra million passengers compared to what Galveston does now.

The pool of potential has little value, what matters is the amount dead presidents spent on a ship.  Having a greater inventory (I would agree that PC def does, and Miami prob does), brings with it the cost to run those ships, hence the true value of what profitability is the company.  IF we were talking the relevance of the city tourism, it would be a different discussion.  Carnival does not care about that, they care about filling the ships and dollars generated by the clients that fill the ships.  Galveston is now king, was king, and probably will be king till at least the new generation of ships come out.  The only variable is profitability, lower berths filled and the revenue that drives.   

[vwrestler171]

What saves Galveston is that it is in the center of the country so many people can drive to it.  Personally, I hate that port and don't plan to sail from it again.

[jimbo5544]

6 hours ago, vwrestler171 said:

What saves Galveston is that it is in the center of the country so many people can drive to it.  Personally, I hate that port and don't plan to sail from it again.

With Carnival it is all about options when it comes to home ports.   It is one of the home ports that has a fairly small variety of itineraries due to its location.  Others like Long Beach, NYC, New Orleans and even Baltimore have limited itineraries (for the most part).   

[jasong38501]

21 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

The pool of potential has little value, what matters is the amount dead presidents spent on a ship.  Having a greater inventory (I would agree that PC def does, and Miami prob does), brings with it the cost to run those ships, hence the true value of what profitability is the company.  IF we were talking the relevance of the city tourism, it would be a different discussion.  Carnival does not care about that, they care about filling the ships and dollars generated by the clients that fill the ships.  Galveston is now king, was king, and probably will be king till at least the new generation of ships come out.  The only variable is profitability, lower berths filled and the revenue that drives.   

I think the growth of Galveston shows everything we need to know about its relevance in the American cruise industry. Carnival has it's newest ship plus two other year round and a seasonal ship. Royal has two ships there now, including an Oasis class ship, at a brand new terminal with rampant rumors of Icon moving there when the 3rd ship in that class comes out. MSC is building a new terminal there. I don't think there is any doubt that Galveston is making piles of money for the cruise industry.

[jimbo5544]

45 minutes ago, jasong38501 said:

I think the growth of Galveston shows everything we need to know about its relevance in the American cruise industry. Carnival has it's newest ship plus two other year round and a seasonal ship. Royal has two ships there now, including an Oasis class ship, at a brand new terminal with rampant rumors of Icon moving there when the 3rd ship in that class comes out. MSC is building a new terminal there. I don't think there is any doubt that Galveston is making piles of money for the cruise industry.

I was not joking when I said that Carnival thinks Galveston is the crown Jewel.  It is, despite comments to the contrary their best homeport.