I did an analysis of Royal Caribbean's Cyber Monday sale

Hi Everyone!

I'm starting a blog where, to start, I'm reviewing various cruise line promotions. To put a little spin on it, I'm trying to be as quantitative as possible - making sure I look at all the data available. I'm a software engineer by day and a cruise-addict by night, so this is a fun merging of my two worlds.

Check it out and let me know what you think, and let me know if there's something else you'd like me to run an analysis on.

https://captaintito.com/2016/11/30/deep-dive-royal-caribbeans-2016-cyber-monday-sale/

Thanks!

Captain Tito

To sum up, Royal ships sail at 104% capacity

Never paid the prices you had listed

Very interesting.

I would have like to see a comparison of prices a week earlier (like Nov 19) to the Cyber Monday deal, rather than Monday versus Tuesday. Many other retailers extended their Cyber Monday promotions throughout the rest of this week.

Impressive analysis...and supports what a number of us have seen in our own research on sales.

Hi Everyone!

 

I'm starting a blog where, to start, I'm reviewing various cruise line promotions. To put a little spin on it, I'm trying to be as quantitative as possible - making sure I look at all the data available. I'm a software engineer by day and a cruise-addict by night, so this is a fun merging of my two worlds.

 

Check it out and let me know what you think, and let me know if there's something else you'd like me to run an analysis on.

 

https://captaintito.com/2016/11/30/deep-dive-royal-caribbeans-2016-cyber-monday-sale/

 

Thanks!

Captain Tito

Pretty cool, how did you get the data?

Interesting, I appreciate the effort.

I was looking at a Scandinavia and Russia cruise for July on Monday it was around 1,200 checking now its 1,800 for an inside cabin

To sum up, Royal ships sail at 104% capacity

 

Never paid the prices you had listed

If you check many web sights where ALL available cabins are listed for each cruise, you will find many sailing well below capacity. As for prices, many of RCCL sales are really no savings and if you monitor prices on a particular sailing over a long period of time you will see them being very labile.

If you check many web sights where ALL available cabins are listed for each cruise, you will find many sailing well below capacity. As for prices, many of RCCL sales are really no savings and if you monitor prices on a particular sailing over a long period of time you will see them being very labile.

I believe I will go with the 104% and pay lower prices than the op listed;)

The cruise I booked on Monday is $119 cheaper today. The OBC dropped from 150 to 75 so that makes it $44 overall cheaper. No Sale for Cyber Monday

It would be interesting and useful to see two things on a price analysis. First, for a simple 2 persons per cabin, how do the prices change over time, and are there typical moments when real savings opportunities present themselves.

Second, what are the price trends and sale opportunities for travelers with more than 2 people per cabin, or with children.

As an example, we are having a family get together. 8 adults, 4 children, 4 cabins, 7 days. Since April there have been an endless number of sales, but the total price has varied less than $100, with 2 exceptions. Over the labor day weekend, and the December sale. In both, kids sale free, and the net impact to our price was almost 20% less. The only way I found out about these sales was here on this website.

Thanks everyone!

Very interesting.

 

I would have like to see a comparison of prices a week earlier (like Nov 19) to the Cyber Monday deal, rather than Monday versus Tuesday. Many other retailers extended their Cyber Monday promotions throughout the rest of this week.

Yes - unfortunately I only have the data on Monday and Tuesday right now. I'm working to get a more consistent feed over time.

In this case I think Cyber Monday was indeed a "deal" - but it only had an effect on OBC, and it actually wasn't a tremendous value.

It would be interesting and useful to see two things on a price analysis. First, for a simple 2 persons per cabin, how do the prices change over time, and are there typical moments when real savings opportunities present themselves.

This is what I'm really hoping to identify - though I do worry the result will be pretty anticlimactic. I'd personally love to know whether booking before final payment date is typically better or worse than booking after.

Second, what are the price trends and sale opportunities for travelers with more than 2 people per cabin, or with children.

 

As an example, we are having a family get together. 8 adults, 4 children, 4 cabins, 7 days. Since April there have been an endless number of sales, but the total price has varied less than $100, with 2 exceptions. Over the labor day weekend, and the December sale. In both, kids sale free, and the net impact to our price was almost 20% less. The only way I found out about these sales was here on this website.

Let's call this phase two! I'm interested in this too since my family often sails with more than 2 passengers per cabin, but unfortunately it takes a bit more work on my end to get those prices.

Other than very first BOGO in May 2014, virtually all the "sales" since then have been marketing spin. Prices very much depend on inventory, are individual to each ship/sailing and very little else.

To sum up, Royal ships sail at 104% capacity

 

Never paid the prices you had listed

In hindsight, I think I could have done a bit better with the averages to bring in more clarity.

Give me a few days and I'll put together another post that considers the duration of the cruise, as well as how much time until the cruise actually sails.

Regarding the 104% capacity number - I've heard that before but I'm not completely sure how it applies to pricing? I thought capacity is calculated based on two passengers in each cabin, but since some cabins have 3 or 4 passengers, capacity on a single sailing can extend beyond 100%.

If you check many web sights where ALL available cabins are listed for each cruise, you will find many sailing well below capacity.

What Setsail is referring to is that RCCL reports a 104+% sailing capacity to the SEC in their annual report. That is spread across all their brands and fleets. Yes, ships like Empress may sail below capacity but on average, the 104% has been true for many years.

Regarding the 104% capacity number - I've heard that before but I'm not completely sure how it applies to pricing? I thought capacity is calculated based on two passengers in each cabin, but since some cabins have 3 or 4 passengers, capacity on a single sailing can extend beyond 100%.

The point of the 104% is that ships sail quite full all the time. To get to that 104%, cabins have to be filled and when there are a lot of them left, prices go down. Yes, 100% is usually with 2 people per cabin, though that math is a bit skewed with solo cabins.

In hindsight, I think I could have done a bit better with the averages to bring in more clarity.

 

Give me a few days and I'll put together another post that considers the duration of the cruise, as well as how much time until the cruise actually sails.

 

Regarding the 104% capacity number - I've heard that before but I'm not completely sure how it applies to pricing? I thought capacity is calculated based on two passengers in each cabin, but since some cabins have 3 or 4 passengers, capacity on a single sailing can extend beyond 100%.

I don't think it has anything to do with pricing. It's not because of pricing but in spite of pricing, the ships sale full. So the sales cc posters whine about all the time have no bearing on the ships sailing full at all. your thoughts on the capacity are spot on.

Thank you for your interesting analysis. We booked a cruise 13 months out so I keep checking the prices and the Cyber Monday price was $75 higher than what we booked. Our final payment isn't until August so I will be curious to see if any of Royal's sales reduce our price before final payment.

So far your analysis seems spot on. We have a cruise booked on Harmony. 2 cabins, different categories. 1 cabin with 2 adults, and an 11 yo, 1 cabin with 2 adults and 2 teens.

Booked the cruise in July of 2016, sailing in August of 2017. I check pricing religiously..... Throughout all the sales, it has only varied about $100 in either case.

I am looking forward to a long term analysis

If you check many web sights where ALL available cabins are listed for each cruise, you will find many sailing well below capacity. As for prices, many of RCCL sales are really no savings and if you monitor prices on a particular sailing over a long period of time you will see them being very labile.

They are no websites that list ALL available cabins. The best one that I have found and is most often recommended here is Royal's UK site that lists 50 cabins per category. I have found it to show more cabins that the sites with the blinking lights which I have found to show 35 cabins. At the other extreme is Royals US site that only shows 15 per category.

I'm just gonna throw this out for information purposes. 2015 cyber Monday we booked from the beach in Cozumel for the same week 2016. Got a stupid cheap JS with $400 OBC from Royal and an additional $100 from our TA. It's the only time we've ever hit both the rate and the OBC so well. Tuesday I found another very good rate for a March sailing but almost no OBC. It only lasted something like 8 hours and the Royal rep onboard wouldn't honor it so we went through our TA again and snatched

it up before it was gone. That evening the same booking was $140 PP more. You really have to strike while the iron's hot. And flexibile schedules helps.

You do realize that some form of BOGO (50% off second guest, 30% off each guest, etc) has been going on for several years now, no? The cyber Monday "extra" was the reduced deposit and OBC. Those items are not always part of whatever "sale" Royal is running.

For what it's worth, my opinion is that all the websites have similar prices, either you do it through the TA or online, or direct. The differences are in perks, such as OBC, or some freebies. Some cruises never get reduced. I booked our cruise in June of this year for April 2017 and have been watching the price religiously for potential reduction since our final payment is not due till January. Never happened. In fact, the prices kept going up and now only a few cabins are available, not in all categories. So, at this point in time, I have no hope for any reduction. The conclusion is, it all depends. The sale they announce applies only to certain sailing dates and yes, some are priced very good. Just an observation.

Other than very first BOGO in May 2014, virtually all the "sales" since then have been marketing spin. Prices very much depend on inventory, are individual to each ship/sailing and very little else.

Exactly. Just today, I repriced two future sailings that I had booked a few months back. One was cheaper by quite a bit. For a family of three, I've saved over $800 for rebooking one today. RCI customer service were very helpful.

But it didn't work for all itineraries. Our Alaska cruise price for June 2017 didn't budge at all. Alaska prices seem very stubborn, IMHO. But our May 2017 sailing to Norway went down considerably. But that sailing seems very far from full at present.

Sadly, we are past final payment date for our most expensive cruise, but I was already able to snag a couple of price drops on that one.

It's just a bummer that getting the best price truly requires such vigilance!