Hurricane Florence

Problem is that we are booked with AA and if we cancel we lose our money. Hopefully AA will waive change fee and we can rebook for Wednesday. We can go any day

 

Keep checking the AA website, they will allow rebooking sand hopefully you can fly out earlier then planned.

Cruise lines stopped doing Carib cruises in hurricane season for awhile but folks wanted them back.so here we are ..

Hurricane season is 6 months of the year, so that would be a lot of cruises lost.

Hurricane season is 6 months of the year, so that would be a lot of cruises lost.

Most of the ships went over to Europe and returned in Nov...but then of course there are the Bermuda and northern itins

Of course there are cruises on the W Coast, Alaska and worldwide these days..lots of choices beyond the Carib....

Aside from hurricanes, Carib summer is the rainy season...hot and humid!

Ok, here are the forecasts. It shows H Florence off the coast of N Carolina as the most high priobbable or well south of the Chesapeake Bay as the most north approach but still off the coast on next Thursday (144hrs), the time you are to leave. The US mainland is west of the storm when you leave which is the weak side of Hurricanes, so the wind and rain should be still pretty low. You are departing from PHL which shouldn’t be affected until at least late Sat or later, if much at all, which it isn’t forcast, except residual rain. See the two graphic below. Airlines can either skirt the weather bands on the west side of the storm or fly over them. Your chance of being impacted is pretty low. I’d worry more about getting sunburned on your cruise, but easy for me to say. Sept and Oct are the worst months for the Caribbean and East Coast and Florida for hurricanes. Life in the tropics. Without Hurricanes, the tropics would be unlivable.

 

Airlines and Cruise Lines have faced them for 50+ years. The two Depressions that 8 and 9 just formed in the East Atlantic behind Florence have minimal initial info on them. TD 8 that someone mentioned, that is the third graphic and should curve (right now) into the Mid-Atlantic. But the other may stay south. No real prediction yet.

 

You have no control over the paths they could take. The only ‘control’ you have is to either fly down to Miami a few days earlier, cnx the cruise (big loss of money since they won’t accept this as a reason), or plan on your cruise and get ready to enjoy it, and look at the wx on Wednesday. Sitting here looking at it each day will not give you any relaxation because even if the path stays south away from you and not cross into the US until after Thursday, you’ll still worry it could turn. It could, but very low chance from what the experts are showing.

 

Den

I respectfully disagree Den....only two of the "spaghetti" tracks in your first graphic show Florence coming ashore on the NC/SC border all the rest show it making landfall around VA. This doesn't mean it will do that because we all know Mother Nature is a tricky b....!! :DAs of this evening it's been downgraded to a tropical storm with the expectation that it will return to full hurricane status during the day. In any event it's not supposed to impact this far North until Thursday night or Friday, which is good news for mimbar......however, because I don't handle stress very well, if I were booked on a cruise and flying to Miami next Thursday I would call my airline tomorrow and ask them if they are allowing people to rebook without penalty and if the answer is "no" ask them WHEN they will.....if the answer is "yes" since time is not an issue, I would say "yes please" and let them rebook me now for departure say Tues or Wed. The reason I woudn't wait till Wed to call them is because they may not have much availability by then....and I'm getting stressed out just thinking about it! :wine-glass::wine-glass::wine-glass:

I respectfully disagree Den....only two of the "spaghetti" tracks in your first graphic show Florence coming ashore on the NC/SC border all the rest show it making landfall around VA. This doesn't mean it will do that because we all know Mother Nature is a tricky b....!! :DAs of this evening it's been downgraded to a tropical storm with the expectation that it will return to full hurricane status during the day. In any event it's not supposed to impact this far North until Thursday night or Friday, which is good news for mimbar......however, because I don't handle stress very well, if I were booked on a cruise and flying to Miami next Thursday I would call my airline tomorrow and ask them if they are allowing people to rebook without penalty and if the answer is "no" ask them WHEN they will.....if the answer is "yes" since time is not an issue, I would say "yes please" and let them rebook me now for departure say Tues or Wed. The reason I woudn't wait till Wed to call them is because they may not have much availability by then....and I'm getting stressed out just thinking about it! :wine-glass::wine-glass::wine-glass:

I already called AA this morning with those exact questions. They are not yet waiving the $200 change fee. If they do, there will be an alert and I will get an email (yeah right) telling me that the fees can be waived. She guessed that if there is an alert, it will be Monday or Tuesday. We will surely know before that when the storm is hitting. I do not expect Philly area to be affected. My concern is to the south of us. My friend and I will evaluate the situation on Sunday with the thought of possibly changing to Wednesday and paying the fee. BUT $200 is a LOT and really don;t want to pay that if things are still un certain. I am totally stressed because I hate not knowing. SOOOOO::wine-glass:wine for me

Flying to Miami from Philly next Thursday for Equinox which leaves next Friday. Hurricane Flo is lurking in the Atlantic and is supposed to hit "somewhere " on the east coast "sometime" between Wednesday and Friday. I am VERY concerned bordering on panic. Anyone feeling the same? Anyone changing plans already?

Why book a cruise at the height of hurricane season?????????????

Why book a cruise at the height of hurricane season?????????????

Because I can. Hurricane season is a large part of the year. In the northeast, it is just as risky in the winter with snow and ice storms. I hate that question because it seems so judgmental and implies that I deserve to be concerned since I was foolish enough to book during hurricane season

Why book a cruise at the height of hurricane season?

Because I can. Also, the cruise is my little birthday present to myself. Also, September is low season for cruising, thus the cheaper rate.

Having lived in New Orleans for 8 years I swore that I would NEVER go on a cruise during hurricane season. That being said, we went on one last September. :oHurricane Irma ripped through Florida 2 days before and I was a basket case. We did sail and it was awesome. Fast forward to now.....we are going on a cruise next week. Same itinerary as last year. We had some issues last year so got a pretty decent credit. Unfortunately it expires Oct 1 so it was a use it or lose deal. We chose to use it, but had to wait until our kids were back in college before we could go, hence this sailing....at this time things definitely aren’t as bad this year as last year, but we did have a back up plan. We are discussing this years back up plan this weekend, but we are confident that we will be sailing. Maybe we won’t be going to the scheduled ports, but we will be going somewhere!

Because I can. Also' date=' the cruise is my little birthday present to myself. Also, September is low season for cruising, thus the cheaper rate.[/quote']

 

 

 

Happy birthday!! We all cruise at different times for different reasons. No need for anyone to judge. We are celebrating my best friend’s retirement. Sailed last year out of PR three weeks after Maria That was stressful but not like this. For the past 15 years we have vacationed during hurricane season. First because I was teaching and after I retired because we preferred to go when kids ate in school We had one hurricane while in Cancun 2007 and followed the destruction of Maria last year. Not a bad track record. No one should question or judge why people book

 

 

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Something to make people feel a little better.....

From a CNN article https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/07/us/florence-forecast-tropical-storm-hurricane-wxc/index.html

....But East Coast residents can feel reassured about one thing: More than 75 storms have passed within 200 miles of Florence's current location in the Atlantic since hurricane records began in the 1850s, and not a single one made a US landfall

Something to make people feel a little better.....

From a CNN article https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/07/us/florence-forecast-tropical-storm-hurricane-wxc/index.html

 

 

....But East Coast residents can feel reassured about one thing: More than 75 storms have passed within 200 miles of Florence's current location in the Atlantic since hurricane records began in the 1850s, and not a single one made a US landfall

I saw that. The NOAA has said that this hurricane is defying all odds and most likely will be an exception to this

Mimbar, the latest track from the National Hurricane Center shows Florence heading towards the Carolinas by Thursday so that is good news for you. These storms do have a mind of their own so I would just stay on top of it and be ready to act quickly if AA puts our a travel waiver. Over the years I have had to deal with hurricanes, ice storms, blizzards just to get to work and then back home. It is never fun but at least you have a cruise ship waiting at the end of your flight.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

Mimbar, the latest track from the National Hurricane Center shows Florence heading towards the Carolinas by Thursday so that is good news for you. These storms do have a mind of their own so I would just stay on top of it and be ready to act quickly if AA puts our a travel waiver. Over the years I have had to deal with hurricanes, ice storms, blizzards just to get to work and then back home. It is never fun but at least you have a cruise ship waiting at the end of your flight.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

JUst called AA and they suggested we wait until tomorrow or Monday . The guy I spoke to is in NC and they are expecting it Wed or Thurs. He said that if Philly and Miami are unaffected, there probably will not be waiver of change fee because, like Tati said, they can fly around it. So we wait. Is 9AM too early for a drink? LOL

The governor of NC has declared a state of emergency as Florence may well hit the coast of SC and/or NC. It was reported there is a small window of opportunity that it could turn and not hit the mainland.

Anybody driving down I-95 through the Carolinas might have real issues next Thursday or Friday but hopefully flying from farther north will be okay. The rain particularly and some wind usually comes inland, not just stopping at the coast. I live in NC and the updates have been continuous. Good luck and have a great cruise!

Well the latest Weather Channel reports show the spaghetti plots all over the place, from the Gulf of Mexico, all the way up the east coast, but favoring the southern east coast.

JUst called AA and they suggested we wait until tomorrow or Monday . The guy I spoke to is in NC and they are expecting it Wed or Thurs. He said that if Philly and Miami are unaffected, there probably will not be waiver of change fee because, like Tati said, they can fly around it. So we wait. Is 9AM too early for a drink? LOL

Thanks for the update!

I am glad I am not connecting through Charlotte at this point and hope Philly remains unaffected.

I will be monitoring through the weekend and watching the AA site for updates.

Is 9AM too early for a drink? LOL

Gurl, honey, NO, it certainly is not...!

(+ Remember, you are in mandatory cruise-adult-beverage-training sweet heart, You are less than a week from sail away.)

Your shipmates, they are depending on you to be in tip-top shape... ;)

Edited out.

The issue for us is the cascade effect..if one airport or area is affected, it can impact others.

We are due to fly very early Friday am...SW Air from NY to Fla via Baltimore...

Hoping it works ok..for everyone,,,travellers and those who may get slammed!

The fly in the ointment for mimbar is Charlottle is a big AA hub so storm in the Carolinas could disrupt travel through that hub but at this point PHL looks to be in the clear and there is no way to tell now where that aircraft you need next week is really coming from.

Hcat, SW does not have a big presence in the Carolinas so hopefully your NY to BWI to south Florida will be safe.

The fly in the ointment for mimbar is Charlottle is a big AA hub so storm in the Carolinas could disrupt travel through that hub but at this point PHL looks to be in the clear and there is no way to tell now where that aircraft you need next week is really coming from.

 

Hcat, SW does not have a big presence in the Carolinas so hopefully your NY to BWI to south Florida will be safe.

Yes, SW does, Mr Click they fly into several cities and Charlotte is one of them. (DD lives in Asheville....we fly SW all the time from NY.)

Anyway,... Mlmbar are you changing planes in Charlotte???? I was under the impression that you were going AA non-stop from Philly to Miami and if the current track holds you should be fine....even Charlotte should be ok because it's quite a ways inland from the coast....the outer banks will likely be in its path....we're already under high surf advisories on the south shore of Long Island, NY...although that may not be from Florence..

Yes, SW does, Mr Click they fly into several cities and Charlotte is one of them. (DD lives in Asheville....we fly SW all the time from NY.)

 

 

 

Anyway,... Mlmbar are you changing planes in Charlotte???? I was under the impression that you were going AA non-stop from Philly to Miami and if the current track holds you should be fine....even Charlotte should be ok because it's quite a ways inland from the coast....the outer banks will likely be in its path....we're already under high surf advisories on the south shore of Long Island, NY...although that may not be from Florence..

Yes we are flying non stop philly to Miami on Thursday morning. Hopefully the plane will get there. Two people at AA told me the same thing about rerouting around the storm. Fingers crossed for all of us!!

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Good to know. I do not want to pay the $200 change fee if I don’t have to Want to wait a bit to see the projections and if AA waives the fee by monday

 

 

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I like to save money as well and wd hate to pay the $200 change fee. But you are in a unique situation and can go early. I believe it is worth it to go ahead and pay the $200 and try to go Monday or Tuesday. You will have a relaxing time in South Florida and not have the stress of worrying. $200 is a small price to pay for piece of mind! Trust me you will be happy you did! This is a great time of the year in South Florida....kids ae back in school and beaches are less crowded.

HydroKitty, I know SW flies to the Carolinas but they don't have a hub there. That can make a big difference. No hub makes it easier to cancel flights or re-route planes to cover the northeast on this one.

Of course we are all assuming that Florence is not going change her mind, again.....