How Much in Advance to Book Air?

[LuCruise]

We are cruising April of 2016, so flights haven't opened up yet. Our final payment for our cruise is January 2016.

 

 

 

When is a good time to book air tickets? I'm not sure if air costs just keep rising from release date or if they go up and down (we wouldn't do last minute since we know we have the cruise). Also, my understanding is air tickets are pretty much non refundable.

 

 

 

How far in advance do you book?

[Globaliser]

When is a good time to book air tickets? I'm not sure if air costs just keep rising from release date or if they go up and down (we wouldn't do last minute since we know we have the cruise).

When it's cheap. That's the only good answer to the question about when to book, because prices do go up and down, sometimes dramatically. And you can never know what the future will bring.

 

However, there's a different answer to the question of when is it a good time to start researching. The answer to that is right now. What you need to do is to get a feel for what the likely range of prices is for your route at the time of the year that you want to travel, so that you can recognise a particularly low price when you see one.

 

That then helps with when to book, because then you'll know when it's cheap.

[waterbug123]

When is a good time to book air tickets? I'm not sure if air costs just keep rising from release date or if they go up and down (we wouldn't do last minute since we know we have the cruise). Also, my understanding is air tickets are pretty much non refundable.

How far in advance do you book?

 

First question: Do prices just go up or do they fluctuate?

Answer: Generally speaking they fluctuate, but there is no set schedule of when they may go up or down or by how much or how many times they will do so or at what intervals, etc. Airlines use complex algorithms to determine when to release more seats (or not) in a particular fare bucket. This is largely dependent on supply and demand. In other words, there's no way to predict exactly what will happen, and to try to do so is usually a futile effort.

 

Second question: Are tickets non-refundable?

Answer: It depends on the ticket you buy. Airlines will sell 100% refundable tickets, but the cost is usually very high. If you are searching discounted fares, you generally won't find refundable fares. Having said that, many discounted tickets CAN be canceled and rebooked if the price drops. However, you generally have to pay a cancellation fee to do this. It may be deducted from the refund on the original ticket, or you may have to pay the whole amount separately, and then get a complete refund on the original ticket; it depends on the airline. You then buy your new tickets at the new, lower price. If the price drop is more than the cancellation fee, it could be worth it. Some airlines (Southwest, for ex.) don't charge a fee to cancel/rebook, but that won't do any good if you're trying to get to Europe or something. Lastly, not all discounted tickets can be cancelled/changed with a fee; some ARE completely non-refundable. Read the fare rules before you purchase a ticket to know for sure.

 

Third question: How far in advance to book?

Answer: When you see a price that you are both willing and able to pay. If you see a price that you COULD pay but you hope to pay less, ask yourself this: Am I both willing and able to pay MORE if I gamble and the price goes up instead of down? However you answer that question will determine whether to buy at that point or wait.

[LuCruise]

Thank you both. Very good advice. I'm not even sure what a good deal would be to fly from Toronto to Fort Lauderdale, but I have priced out for April 2015 flight (whereas we need April 2016). It seems a bit pricey, but not sure. So will just monitor for a bit and DH and I will keep on prices once tickets are released.

 

Thanks for the info. Wish it was simpler like if you booked early, it would only go up as it all seems like a gamble. Cruises at least are totally refundable up until final payment. (We have no reason to think we're cancelling our trip, but you never know)

[UKBayern]

Also research if the time you are flying is a public holiday/ school holiday/major event in either your own state/area/country or in the state/area/country you are travelling to. If it is the first day of a major holiday, Easter, a really important marathon, Daytona Bike week, Spring Break, Thanksgiving, etc. you can count on it that the rates will only go up, and not down. The law of supply and demand.

[Globaliser]

Wish it was simpler like if you booked early, it would only go up as it all seems like a gamble.

You have deregulation and competition to thank for that. It turned air travel into a huge commodity market into which ordinary people are compelled to venture.

 

It could be simpler if air fares were re-regulated. But we'd probably throw out most of the benefits of deregulation and competition that we now enjoy.

[waterbug123]

I'm not even sure what a good deal would be to fly from Toronto to Fort Lauderdale, but I have priced out for April 2015 flight (whereas we need April 2016). It seems a bit pricey, but not sure.

 

Keep in mind that Easter is in early April this year, so if you are flying early to mid April, you are competing with many families whose kids' schools have Easter/spring break in April; that increases demand for cruises, which in turn increases demand for airfare to port cities in Florida. Combine that with additional demand from families taking land-based spring break trips to Florida and the end result is higher airfare.

[6rugrats]

Easter in 2016 is March 27th. Looks like OP wants to fly around mid April 2016?

Edited February 23, 2015 by 6rugrats

[frugaltravel]

Easter in 2016 is March 27th. Looks like OP wants to fly around mid April 2016?

 

True but OP said they were looking at early April 2015 prices and saying they were high. That is probably because of Easter, which won't be a factor in April 2016 :)

[LuCruise]

Easter in 2016 is March 27th. Looks like OP wants to fly around mid April 2016?

 

Yes, we would be flying April 9th 2016....so 2 weeks after Easter and should be after spring break (unless any schools are late).

 

But good point if I'm looking at April 2015 to get an idea of prices. I'm looking at the 'same weekend' in 2015 so looking at April 11 which is a week after Easter this year. Not sure if these prices are still considered prime time. I can search end of April as well to get an idea.

Edited February 23, 2015 by LuCruise

[6rugrats]

It's really not productive to search this year's flight prices, as you can't use them as an accurate predictor for flights over a year from now.

[LuCruise]

It's really not productive to search this year's flight prices, as you can't use them as an accurate predictor for flights over a year from now.

 

True, but just trying to get an idea of what it would even cost to fly to Ft Lauderdale from my home city.

[Thrak]

Just found this thread as I had a similar quandry. We're going to book an Alaska cruisetour for June 2016 (saw the listing in advance and have to wait a couple of weeks for the bookings to open) but we will be booking for June and we obviously can't book air that far in advance. As I haven't flown in years (think pre-TSA) I'm not at all "in the know" regarding air travel.

 

I guess we just have to book our cruisetour and then "hope" we can get decent flights when they become available. I don't really know how it works but, checking sites now, it looks like we will probably have to wait 4 months or so to even be able to see flight info for June.

[navybankerteacher]

Start doing test bookings on your flight itinerary for multiple dates , on different days of the week to get a feel of how prices seem to run. Try the sixteenth of each month, say, May through December 2015 - do it Tuesday's , Thursday's and Saturdays. You will get an idea of the general price range, a feel for how much difference lead time makes, and an idea whether day of the week you book makes a difference. Finally, when you find a fare you can live with, book it. There is no guaranty which way fares will go for a flight on a particular date.

[slidergirl]

Looking in February 2015 for April 2015 airfares won't yield a similar fare than if you start looking 330 days out for your April 2016 airfare. You have two different time frames - 90 days out vs 330 days out.

As others have said, what you find now doesn't mean that the price will be the same for the same time period 14 months from now. What you need to do is set a price that you feel comfortable paying, and when it shows up, pay it. Once you pay, do not keep looking - it will only drive you crazy.

[kenish]

True, but just trying to get an idea of what it would even cost to fly to Ft Lauderdale from my home city.

 

Pick a stock and look up the price on a calendar date in the past year. How well does that predict the stock's price on the same date in the coming year? Just as many things (known and unknown) affect airfares, which are commodity-priced, just like stocks.

 

That said, you can make very broad and general assumptions....Sunday after Thanksgiving will be expensive, Boston less expensive in February than June, etc.

[frugaltravel]

True, but just trying to get an idea of what it would even cost to fly to Ft Lauderdale from my home city.

 

As you will soon see, you can't win on the Cruise Air forum. You do your due diligence and try to figure some historical fares so you are well-informed and know what a reasonable price might be, and you are told "you can't really tell prices this far in advance, throw a dart, look at the price of a stock" etc , etc. But then if you come to the forum and ask a question without doing your due diligence, you are scolded as well.

 

Take it all with a grain of salt. You are doing just fine with your research!

[waterbug123]

As you will soon see, you can't win on the Cruise Air forum. You do your due diligence and try to figure some historical fares so you are well-informed and know what a reasonable price might be, and you are told "you can't really tell prices this far in advance, throw a dart, look at the price of a stock" etc , etc. But then if you come to the forum and ask a question without doing your due diligence, you are scolded as well.

 

Take it all with a grain of salt. You are doing just fine with your research!

 

I haven't gone back and re-read every word of every reply, but I don't believe anyone has "scolded" the OP. What's been done is to explain why looking at airfare on one date doesn't give a good prediction of airfare on that same date a year later. The OP actually thanked a couple of us for the explanations early, so it would appear that the OP took it in the informative way it was intended, and not as a reprimand or scolding. :rolleyes:

[FlyerTalker]

As you will soon see, you can't win on the Cruise Air forum. You do your due diligence and try to figure some historical fares so you are well-informed and know what a reasonable price might be, and you are told "you can't really tell prices this far in advance, throw a dart, look at the price of a stock" etc , etc. But then if you come to the forum and ask a question without doing your due diligence, you are scolded as well.

 

Take it all with a grain of salt. You are doing just fine with your research!

Looking at historical information is good for just that....historical information. The problem arises when people take valid data (price history) and are upset when things don't repeat themselves again in the future. They say "well it was XXX last year" and have unreal expectations for the future.

 

There's nothing wrong with research and plenty that is right. It's the application of the basic facts that I (and others) try to guard against by tamping down expectations. Projecting into the future should be viewed without guarantees and with a full expectation that things may/will be different.

[frugaltravel]

I haven't gone back and re-read every word of every reply, but I don't believe anyone has "scolded" the OP. What's been done is to explain why looking at airfare on one date doesn't give a good prediction of airfare on that same date a year later. The OP actually thanked a couple of us for the explanations early, so it would appear that the OP took it in the informative way it was intended, and not as a reprimand or scolding. :rolleyes:

 

Call it what you will, but "negative" posts is certainly a way to describe some of what I meant. Maybe "scolding" was too strong of a word. But negativity is not.

[waterbug123]

Call it what you will, but "negative" posts is certainly a way to describe some of what I meant. Maybe "scolding" was too strong of a word. But negativity is not.

 

Not sure how explaining why past airline pricing isn't a good predictor of future prices, or pointing out how comparing prices 90 days out with prices 330 days out, etc. etc. is considered negative, but whatever.

 

OP- There is a lot of good info available from some extremely knowledgeable posters on this board (not claiming that myself; many are far more knowledgeable than me!). The information may not always be sugar coated, but hopefully you've gotten a better understanding of your particular situation and found the information useful. :)

[FawnRiver]

There are too many variables to predict when you should book, so the best advice is what other posters have said, set your budget and when you see a price that looks good, go for it.

There are other options that you might want to consider, too. DH and I have used Airmiles to fly YYZ to FLL which makes the trip cheaper, or you can look at flying into MIA instead of FLL. There's always the possibility of driving down to Buffalo and flying out of there (not that I have ever found a combination of flights and hotels that makes that worth the effort, but it is an option).

It all depends on what you must have and what you're willing to pay for.

 

As an example, I set a budget for flights for our next cruise (Venice to Barcelona) and started checking prices as soon as the schedule opened. I already knew who I wanted to fly with and the class in which I wanted to fly. 300 days out, I didn't like the price with the options I picked, so I decided to change the flight time out of Barcelona and the price dropped $500, putting it into my target price zone, so I booked it. Now, those same flights are $1,700 more than what I paid.

Set your price, play with the variables, but don't wait too long - there will only be so many flights to choose from.

 

Good luck.

[hospsafe]

Thats one of the benefits of cruising out of Ft. Lauderdale is that you have legitimately 3 flight options. Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and Orlando. Yes Orlando is a little drive but its doable.

[FlyerTalker]

Thats one of the benefits of cruising out of Ft. Lauderdale is that you have legitimately 3 flight options. Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and Orlando. Yes Orlando is a little drive but its doable.

You also left out PBI, RSW, SRQ and MLB, all of which are closer than Orlando, plus TPA, which is just a bit further away.

[hospsafe]

What? No JAX? Excuse my ignorance for leaving out Tampa. I was thinking on a much larger scale. ie the potential of Direct flights (let that discussion begin!) from up North and the ease of the OP getting to Ft. Lauderdale. I know from Orlando you can take the train down to Ft. Lauderdale so there isnt a need to rent a car. (At least you used to be able to take the train.) I have heard the number of flights in/out of West Palm have increased in the last few years but the scheduling flexibility I am sure there and other airports don't match Orlando's, Miami's or ft. Lauderdale but I could be wrong and well...probably am.