Hurricane Irma Watch

[fragilek]

Florida has just declared a state of emergency for every county.

[bashleyf]

Florida has just declared a state of emergency for every state.

 

Oh man, that includes me then. Thanks for the heads up, I didn't even know my own state had declared an emergency.

[molly361]

Florida has just declared a state of emergency for every state.

They have to do that in order to get federal money should the storm hit Florida

 

 

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[fragilek]

west palm beach residents being asked to go to police and get ID cards in prep for an evacuation. extract below:-

 

"The Police Department is recommending that residents and businesses send their employees and household staff to the Police Department to obtain Town of Palm Beach Voluntary ID cards, in order to avoid long lines before a storm threatens. When a storm threatens Palm Beach and an evacuation order is issued, the Police Department will establish checkpoints at all entry points to the Town. After the storm, the Town’s Damage Assessment Team will evaluate conditions on the Island in order to determine when it is safe for people to return."

[HallOfPromise]

assuming that ft lauderdale is not hit..Are you all willing to fly in on 9/9 to take Allure on 9/10 if weather is windy stormy raining..are we going to be miserable?

 

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If Irma does not hit Ft Lauderdale, then yes. We'd go. But I'm waiting until Wednesday or Thursday to really make a decision.

[Misplaced Texan]

Latest Euro ensemble model suggesting a first landfall or near-miss at Miami mid-day Sunday and then out to sea off the coast with a second landfall in Savanah Tuesday morning. But the range of outcomes is still huge and covers everything from going out to sea in the Atlantic to going into the Gulf.

 

GFZ ensemble is slightly further west and brings the storm right up Florida :shudder:

 

Pretty sure we're going to need shutters up and they'll evacuate the island here unless it goes way west or east of the current track.

 

If it either glances Miami and works its way up the east coast or comes right up the state, I wouldn't be confident anything is getting into/out of Port Canveral

 

Still fairly early yet though. By Wednesday when it's moving past/over Hispaniola, things should firm up a lot in terms of predicted track.

[sandebeach]

 

 

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[sandebeach]

This is not good for Dade and Broward countiesty

 

 

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[cruisinfanatic]

I think south Florida cruises are going to be at least delayed this weekend. Most of the different tracks agree Irma will be just south of Florida at 2PM Saturday and then going due north through the middle of Florida Sunday

[luvpoodle]

My sisters house was devastated last week in Pt Aransas, Texas. Her heroic view is Irma come here, they're already devastated don't cause havoc elsewhere.

 

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[Dennis#1]

This is not good for Dade and Broward countiesty

 

 

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Yes, and not good for the Port of Tampa. Many of the models have it headed into the Gulf, and up towards Fort Meyers and Tampa.

[WrittenOnYourHeart]

So far it looks like the Dream will be soiling with a flip flop of schedule. Castaway Cay change up with Nassau. We have an at sea day Thursday 9/7 and are scheduled to be in port Canaveral 9/8 am. May be making a beeline for Tampa to board up the house. Hope not.

 

 

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Disney Fantasy flipped Falmouth and Cozumel on hers - she's in Falmouth today which was initially scheduled to be Cozumel and will be in Cozumel on Thursday which was scheduled to be Falmouth.

 

The can only flip the Dream's stop at Castaway because right now there are only 2 ships doing the Bahamas or Caribbean. In the Winter if you miss you're pretty much out of luck because the Dream has 2 stops in a week (2 cruises), the Fantasy has 1, and depending on the year the Wonder has 1 and the Magic 2 or the Magic 1 and the Wonder 2. That leaves only 1 spare day, and it doesn't always work out to sub it in.

[Misplaced Texan]

Yes, and not good for the Port of Tampa. Many of the models have it headed into the Gulf, and up towards Fort Meyers and Tampa.

 

Right now every single part of Florida is potentially at risk of a hurricane over the weekend. The models all seem to agree that at some point it turns more or less north.

 

How far west it tracks before it does depends on how the low that's currently over the eastern US interacts with the high that's over the Atlantic, so there's still some decent uncertainty over when it makes the turn.

 

I assume that's why a lot of forecasters are saying to wait for Wednesday, when it will be near Hispaniola and the weather that will steer it will be more certain, to make decisions.

 

Personally, if I had "cancel for any reason" cruise insurance and was coming in from out of state, I'd probably bail out now. There's going to be a hurricane of great strength most likely close to or over FL this weekend. It's pretty foolish to travel TO a hurricane.

 

For those of us who are locals, it's an own-judgement thing about when and how far (if at all) we run.

[FLSteve11]

I'm in Davie just on the border with Weston (other side of Indian Trace). I am definitely not doing my shutters, I have a guy who does it. We have a lot of large windows (12ft tall) and it's a big chore. Waiting until later in the week before I pull the trigger on that decision. Not fun at all. House isn't that old and it's almost unbelievable they wouldn't have built it with impact windows, ugh!!!

 

We had some pretty good flooding the last storms that came through what, a few months ago. Tennis courts were completely submerged. So I get a little nervous but I have never seen water get anywhere close to the houses. Stay in touch if you need any help.

 

I'll have to look at that as well. The only really big windows we have are the 2 sliding glass doors. But still it's a lot of windows. We're relatively new to the house, so haven't put them on this one yet. That's why I figured to start early as well, giving the foot a break. Gout is awful, seems like it's no big deal but it can hurt! (Probably a carry-over from 2 weeks in Alaska in July).

 

We fortunately did not flood much during the last big storm, though there were a few puddles in the road that took a day or so to go away. I know Davie & SW Ranches had a lot more flooding. I'm in the Ridges, so in the southern portion down near Griffin Rd, so saw the flooding there.

 

Hopefully with the storm still almost a week away, it will change before it gets here.

[cruzer_3]

Apparently on the 09/03 Allure of the Seas sailing, the Labadee port of call is being cancelled , as per James Van Fleet on Twitter

[Cruisegirl6]

FlSteve11- Hang in there, don't put anything up just yet, hate for you to do all that work with your painful foot and not need to put them up.....there is a chance it skim south Florida but head northward, and you won't be on the worse side of the storm that would stay in the Atlantic.

 

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/local/hurricane-preparedness/irma-now-a-major-hurricane-strengthens-to-category-3/469600131

 

Tomorrow evening we have a better idea to the path and Wednesday morning also, you have plenty of time to get your shutters up if you need to, but lets hope, nobody will have to.

[CruisinCons]

If you don't already follow James on Twitter and you have a cruise coming up next week now is the time to do so. LOL I'm scheduled for Oasis this Saturday 9/10, and am flying down to MCO 9/9. James tweeted today that a formal announcement will be made Wednesday for the weekend sailings.

[Coopdog08]

If you don't already follow James on Twitter and you have a cruise coming up next week now is the time to do so. LOL I'm scheduled for Oasis this Saturday 9/10, and am flying down to MCO 9/9. James tweeted today that a formal announcement will be made Wednesday for the weekend sailings.

James still has a job with RC after his window of opportunity with Harvey?

[Tony20]

Right now every single part of Florida is potentially at risk of a hurricane over the weekend. The models all seem to agree that at some point it turns more or less north.

 

How far west it tracks before it does depends on how the low that's currently over the eastern US interacts with the high that's over the Atlantic, so there's still some decent uncertainty over when it makes the turn.

 

I assume that's why a lot of forecasters are saying to wait for Wednesday, when it will be near Hispaniola and the weather that will steer it will be more certain, to make decisions.

 

Personally, if I had "cancel for any reason" cruise insurance and was coming in from out of state, I'd probably bail out now. There's going to be a hurricane of great strength most likely close to or over FL this weekend. It's pretty foolish to travel TO a hurricane.

 

For those of us who are locals, it's an own-judgement thing about when and how far (if at all) we run.

 

We leave on Saturday. Average five day NHC forecast error is 225 miles. A lot of changes to come. Maybe.

[Misplaced Texan]

We leave on Saturday. Average five day NHC forecast error is 225 miles. A lot of changes to come. Maybe.

 

Agree, a lot of changes to come. I haven't seen any meteorologists who think they'll have a solid forecast until Wednesday and there will be uncertainty even then.

 

But just like we're preparing to have to evacuate at least off of our barrier island, folks who are planning to head this way on the weekend ought to be preparing for what happens if they can't/shouldn't.

 

I'll say it again: unless you're sure the storm isn't going where you're going, it's foolish to go TO a hurricane.

[put me on a ship]

I'll have to look at that as well. The only really big windows we have are the 2 sliding glass doors. But still it's a lot of windows. We're relatively new to the house, so haven't put them on this one yet. That's why I figured to start early as well, giving the foot a break. Gout is awful, seems like it's no big deal but it can hurt! (Probably a carry-over from 2 weeks in Alaska in July).

 

We fortunately did not flood much during the last big storm, though there were a few puddles in the road that took a day or so to go away. I know Davie & SW Ranches had a lot more flooding. I'm in the Ridges, so in the southern portion down near Griffin Rd, so saw the flooding there.

 

Hopefully with the storm still almost a week away, it will change before it gets here.

 

We had to put our shutters up last year for Matthew. First time we did in this house, we've only been here 3 years (our old house didn't have them). It took us 2 days, with help. Hopefully, if we have to this time, it will go a bit faster. And then, on Saturday, we went on a cruise! We were SO ready!

[put me on a ship]

Agree, a lot of changes to come. I haven't seen any meteorologists who think they'll have a solid forecast until Wednesday and there will be uncertainty even then.

 

But just like we're preparing to have to evacuate at least off of our barrier island, folks who are planning to head this way on the weekend ought to be preparing for what happens if they can't/shouldn't.

 

I'll say it again: unless you're sure the storm isn't going where you're going, it's foolish to go TO a hurricane.

 

We're just across the river from you...Eau Gallie area. My parents used to live in Indian Harbour Beach, can't tell you how many times they had to evacuate, and the storms ended up turning away from us. Of course, we've also been through several storms now.

 

And I agree, don't come to FL if it looks like a storm is coming. A lot of people will be under mandatory evacuations, and hotels become hard to get.

[Cruiseathoning]

This is a bizarre storm track, because it essentially would preclude Allure from going to either Florida port. One because Hurricane Irma is shown as precisely hitting both ports, two the timing is such it would have to beat the storm to Port Canaveral, and then you risk an Anthem redux as it would be on the east side of the storm. Since it switched to Cozumel anyway, is Galveston capable of handling an Oasis class ship?

 

My question is what do they do if Liberty and Allure, and Oasis have to dock and two of the three main ports are unusable?

[Clarea]

... My question is what do they do if Liberty and Allure, and Oasis have to dock and two of the three main ports are unusable?

There are many ports that can handle Oasis class ships. Those ports may not be the most efficient for handling 6000 passengers, but in an emergency they have options. For example, in Barcelona they use two adjacent terminals for one Oasis ship.

[Misplaced Texan]

We're just across the river from you...Eau Gallie area. My parents used to live in Indian Harbour Beach, can't tell you how many times they had to evacuate, and the storms ended up turning away from us. Of course, we've also been through several storms now.

 

And I agree, don't come to FL if it looks like a storm is coming. A lot of people will be under mandatory evacuations, and hotels become hard to get.

 

Howdy Neighbor. :)

 

We have two options right now: 1) My in-laws are in Palm Bay on the other side of 95, which is our usual plan for small storms where they make us go inland but nothing significant is likely to happen. 2) I grabbed a cancellable hotel in Orlando for Sat-Wed just in case things look bad by the end of the week.

 

Now it's wait and see time. And prepare to curse myself for renovating the master bathroom this year rather than getting impact windows when I spend all day Friday fighting to get the shutters up.