Diamond Princess passenger "tested positive for Wuhan coronavirus"

[kathy49]

35 minutes ago, npcl said:

Guam  (A US territory) also declined the Westerdam from terminating there.

i think that is really bad and if Thailand really won't take them I have to wonder if US government could step in. I think there are a fair amount of US passengers and all they need to do is get flights...but I guess that is an issue from Guam.

[Pushka]

20 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

All passengers should have been repatriated on a nationality by nationality basis and put in quarantine in their home country and there would not now be 135 infected people on that ship. The infection levels will only rise on the diamond.

Infection levels were always going to rise because the very first tranche of people being fully tested was over 250! These were people in close contact with Person 1 and those showing respiratory symptoms. 
 

And it was completely impossible to test every single passenger and unless production of test devices is ramped up by now, it still is. There is no conspiracy here. Indonesia for instance at last news, did not have any test kits. So according to their statistics there are no corona virus issues there. Which I’d suggest is nonsense given that Chinese Tour groups account for a major part of their tourist industry. 

Edited February 10, 2020 by Pushka

[chipmaster]

12 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

Hospital isolation wards are kept at negative pressure. Cruise ship cabins are kept at positive pressure due to fire code restrictions. What this means is that every time a cabin door is opened (for meals, linens, a walk on the deck, etc.) a certain volume of cabin air moves into the hallway contaminating the zone/area air system. There is little if anything Princess can do about that. A cabin is not an isolation room, it may be the best they can do on a ship but don't confuse it with a hospital.

 

I highly doubt that Wuhan was negative pressure, but agree the ship cabins are most certainly positive pressure with very high humidity condensation duct work, a recipe for nasty mix.

[ace2542]

1 minute ago, SunNFunCruzer said:

 

They don't have enough test kits.  Anywhere in the World.  Even here in the great US of A.  

 

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0206-coronavirus-diagnostic-test-kits.html

 

I just wanted to make sure that someone stood up to what I perceive as hate speech against a country and its citizens.  I believe Japan IS helping America and the rest of the world right now. 

 

I understand people are frustrated and afraid... it'd be insane not to be. But WHO stands for WORLD Health Organization -- we are a Global Society now, and, sadly, for better or worse, we're all in this together. We must partner with China, even if China is to "blame" b/c of lax health and safety regulations and lack of accurate reporting at initial outbreak. Karma is a boomerang and Chinese Society is paying dearly for the poor decisions made by those at the top.

If they don't have the testing kits all the more the reason to get the people out as quick as they can. They should have been taken of the ship on a nationality by nationality basis and flown home for quarantine in their home countries if you are not set up for it.

 

I was on the NCL Pearl TA in april we had an outbreak of norovirus and they lied and lied to us saying only a few cases as they are under orders to do. There was over 1000 cases there must have been the ship was dead by the 3rd to last night everyone was in their cabins. There will be 500 cases on the diamond before this over I promise you. 480 or so of which could have been prevented.

[barbaraanne]

Now the incubation period has been reported on NBC news as being up to 24 days.

 

 

[bluesea321]

7 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

I highly doubt that Wuhan was negative pressure, but agree the ship cabins are most certainly positive pressure with very high humidity condensation duct work, a recipe for nasty mix.

I  agree.

[bluesea321]

Just now, barbaraanne said:

Now the incubation period has been reported on NBC news as being up to 24 days.

I just heard the same on NBC's Nightly News. If true, bad news indeed.

[SunNFunCruzer]

1 minute ago, ace2542 said:

They should have been taken of the ship on a nationality by nationality basis and flown home for quarantine in their home countries if you are not set up for it.

 

Is it a Japanese flagged vessel?  Does Japan reap the benefits of ownership which would, arguably, give them a moral and ethical imperative to go above and beyond in this situation?  No.  Why should Japan assume the risk of moving a potentially contagious population overland and put its population at risk?  Shareholders and cruisers reap the benefits.  So shareholders and cruisers should assume the risk

 

As it is, they are taking responsibility and assuming risk for the infected and taxing their health care system because it is a moral right in this situation.  I am grateful to the Japanese Government.  They know it's a Global Society and we are as strong as our weakest link.

[npcl]

23 minutes ago, kent9xxx1 said:

 

US already had a lock down in place.  And you are comparing Guam to Tokyo?  Can Guam handle this kind of large scale infection?

However the HAL ship has no signs of infection. You were making negative comments about the Japanese for not accepting the HAL ship, which you stated might be because they did not have large numbers of Japanese on board.

 

Well a US territory was also not willing to accept the HAL ship. Maybe their weren't enough americans on board to follow your logic.

 

As far as the comment about number of HID rooms in Japan from a paper on Japanese legal response to health emergencies one finds

 

"As of April 2014, Japan had three Designated Specified Infectious Disease Medical Institutions, forty-four Designated Category I Infectious Disease Medical Institutions, and 335 Designated Category II Infectious Disease Medical Institutions"

 

So out of all of the hospitals in Japan a total of 382 have been designated for handling infectious disease in an outbreak situation.  Does not say the number of beds 

 As specified here the design of the Japanese system:

 

Japan has a designated medical institution system for particular infectious diseases under the Infectious Diseases Prevention Act. 

A Designated Specified Infectious Disease Medical Institution is designated by the Minister of the MHLW upon the institution’s consent, and treats patients stricken with New Infectious Diseases, Category I and II infectious diseases, and New Influenza.[74]  

A Designated Category I Infectious Disease Medical Institution is designated by a governor upon the institution’s consent and treats patients with Category I and II infectious diseases and New Influenza.[75] 

A Designated Category II Infectious Disease Medical Institution is designated by a governor upon the institution’s consent and treats patients with Category II infectious diseases and New Influenza.[76] 

 

For anyone that thinks that the Corona virus would not be treated as type 1 or type 2 in Japan, I include the following paragraph.

 

More recently, a bill to amend the Infectious Diseases Prevention Act was submitted to the Diet in October 2014.  Pursuant to the bill, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) would be added to Category II infectious diseases.  Avian flu (H7N9), which was temporarily added to Category II by Cabinet order designation, would also be added to Category II on a permanent basis.  In addition, the bill contains provisions that would enable the governor to collect specimens from persons infected with specified infectious diseases.[108]  

[Farts]

55 minutes ago, SunNFunCruzer said:

 

 

I think if the mortality rate were higher, public pressure would necessitate a lot of extreme measures.  Right now, people from the Diamond are uncomfortable.  IF the virus kills and/or starts killing in substantial numbers, I believe Princess AND other cruiselines would come to the aid of affected passengers and would donate ships to start to spread people out. 

 

IMO it's premature for such extreme measures. 

 

This is, afterall, a business and anyone who cruises knows there is some health risk involved in being in a confined space with lots of people and limited resources.  That's the risk reward/calculation I am trying to make right now for March.

mortality rate is 2.1% per cdc. thats high

 

source:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6905e1.htm?s_cid=mm6905e1_w

Edited February 11, 2020 by Farts

[kathy49]

1 minute ago, bluesea321 said:

I just heard the same on NBC's Nightly News. If true, bad news indeed.

If this is true I think people will start rioting...I mean really there is only so much you can take. Even David Abel is getting a bit out of sorts regarding the food etc.  No way can these people stay on for 24.

[SunNFunCruzer]

4 minutes ago, Farts said:

mortality rate is 2.1% per cdc. thats high

 

source:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6905e1.htm?s_cid=mm6905e1_w

 

 

We have 135 - 136 confirmed infected on Diamond.  I haven't heard of 2 -3 deaths.  It's possible there has been an unreported death, but I am not going to speculate. 

 

IMO, the mortality rate would have to be closer to 10-15- 20% before drastic measures would be taken to preserve health and safety.

 

Edit: that said, I do not believe the infected/death report rates out of China (I believe both are much higher), but, my understanding is that their health care system is closer to third world (especially under current circumstances)  than first like the US/Germany/UK/Japan, so where you are receiving care could affect mortality rate.

Edited February 11, 2020 by SunNFunCruzer
Edit

[ace2542]

1 minute ago, kathy49 said:

If this is true I think people will start rioting...I mean really there is only so much you can take. Even David Abel is getting a bit out of sorts regarding the food etc.  No way can these people stay on for 24.

They have no choice. Forget a carnival wide ban from 7 cruise lines. Anyone who attempts to leave that ship will be shot dead. Why do you think the soliders are there?

[clskinsfan]

10 minutes ago, barbaraanne said:

Now the incubation period has been reported on NBC news as being up to 24 days.

 

 

This is terrifying. You could have someone walking around for 3 weeks without symptoms infecting people. Scary indeed.

[bluesea321]

2 minutes ago, kathy49 said:

If this is true I think people will start rioting...I mean really there is only so much you can take. Even David Abel is getting a bit out of sorts regarding the food etc.  No way can these people stay on for 24.

I agree with you but some may have no choice. If a cabin mate is confirmed with the virus today the other cabin mates will be quarantined until Feb 24, 14 days from today. I have not been in inside cabins but I would go stir crazy if I were in one. I hope and pray that the WHO and the Japanese Health Ministry comes up with a "better" plan.

[ace2542]

5 minutes ago, Farts said:

mortality rate is 2.1% per cdc. thats high

 

source:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6905e1.htm?s_cid=mm6905e1_w

and 2 deaths in 1011 have occurred outside china. Why? No one knows and I won't speculate on a public forum though I think there is more this virus than meets the eye lets leave at that shall we.

[Farts]

3 minutes ago, SunNFunCruzer said:

 

 

We have 135 - 136 confirmed infected on Diamond.  I haven't heard of 2 -3 deaths.  It's possible there has been an unreported death, but I am not going to speculate. 

 

IMO, the mortality rate would have to be closer to 10-15- 20% before drastic measures would be taken to preserve health and safety.

That's what the CDC reports. 

 

And we don't know anything about how these ppl are doing. Maybe early intervention and HIV meds can improve mortality. tough to say right now. that's why it's so scary to us doctors. 

[kathy49]

2 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

They have no choice. Forget a carnival wide ban from 7 cruise lines. Anyone who attempts to leave that ship will be shot dead. Why do you think the soliders are there?

yeah I know but it is a situation where some of these people could have lasting effects over and above the virus.

[npcl]

13 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

If they don't have the testing kits all the more the reason to get the people out as quick as they can. They should have been taken of the ship on a nationality by nationality basis and flown home for quarantine in their home countries if you are not set up for it.

 

I was on the NCL Pearl TA in april we had an outbreak of norovirus and they lied and lied to us saying only a few cases as they are under orders to do. There was over 1000 cases there must have been the ship was dead by the 3rd to last night everyone was in their cabins. There will be 500 cases on the diamond before this over I promise you. 480 or so of which could have been prevented.

That's funny in April 2019 the total number of cases did not even get to the level requiring report to the CDC (it is not in the CDC list of cruise ship outbreaks) which is 3% or more of passengers. Since the Pearl is around a 2400 capacity ship the reporting limit would have been 72 passengers.  Quite a bit less than the 1,000 you are stating.  a bit of hyperbole it seems.

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, SunNFunCruzer said:

 

 

We have 135 - 136 confirmed infected on Diamond.  I haven't heard of 2 -3 deaths.  It's possible there has been an unreported death, but I am not going to speculate. 

 

IMO, the mortality rate would have to be closer to 10-15- 20% before drastic measures would be taken to preserve health and safety.

Read up on how the disease progresses. It takes time for people to get critical.

[Farts]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Read up on how the disease progresses. It takes time for people to get critical.

right. 

[ace2542]

Just now, kathy49 said:

yeah I know but it is a situation where some of these people could have lasting effects over and above the virus.

They are not in America or England they are in Japan under their law. I don't see what can be done about that they can't appeal to the supreme courts. People could be quarantined for months for even years with this virus if that is what the incubation period is discovered to be.

[npcl]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is terrifying. You could have someone walking around for 3 weeks without symptoms infecting people. Scary indeed.

I think it is due to most recently identified cases.  But unclear if that is 24 days for the ship, or 24 days for all passengers.

I would expect the 24 days for the ship including crew and those in the cabin with the most recently identified cases.  But not for the passengers in cabins without new cases.

 

I expect that we should see the rate of new case identification among passengers to drop during the next few days.  If they do and drop to zero new cases per day by the 19th among the passengers. Then I expect most of them (those not in cabins with new cases found during quarantine) to be let off the ship.  Then the quarantine will move to a new phase for the crew.

[npcl]

29 minutes ago, kathy49 said:

i think that is really bad and if Thailand really won't take them I have to wonder if US government could step in. I think there are a fair amount of US passengers and all they need to do is get flights...but I guess that is an issue from Guam.

Actually quite a few flights route through Guam.

 

Guam handles 2.8 million passengers per year.

Edited February 11, 2020 by npcl

[bluesea321]

4 minutes ago, kathy49 said:

yeah I know but it is a situation where some of these people could have lasting effects over and above the virus.

Some will have PTSD and some will not cruise again.