SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[crusinbanjo]

4 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

 

Good and interesting multiple comments and follow-ups from our Dutch and Ohio friends.  In case any of us had an extra billion dollars sitting around and we were waiting to to loan it to Royal Caribbean, sorry, it is too late.  As saying goes, we missed that boat!!

 

From the Wall Street Journal late yesterday, they had this headline from a company PR release: “Royal Caribbean Group announces closing of senior unsecured notes offering” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group today announced that it has closed its private offering of $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.375% senior unsecured notes due 2027. The Company expects to use the net proceeds from the offering of the Notes to repay principal payments on debt maturing in 2022. Pending such uses, the Company may temporarily apply the proceeds to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facilities or other borrowings.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/royal-caribbean-group-announces-closing-of-senior-unsecured-notes-offering-01641590938?tesla=y

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,906 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

Thanks Terry, you always get the best information.   Funny thing is, they never asked me to make that loan….. hummm , wonder why?

[TLCOhio]

19 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

When it comes to investing, there are several boats that I missed.  🙁

 

Yes!  Cute response!!  Maybe Royal Caribbean did not call us for this "investment opportunity" because they are waiting till they need to contact us for when they want to borrow two billion dollars?  Why wasting our time on these smaller borrowings?  We are such "high rollers" who do not want to be bother by the "small stuff"??

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 20,300 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

[TLCOhio]

17 hours ago, crusinbanjo said:

Thanks Terry, you always get the best information.   Funny thing is, they never asked me to make that loan….. hummm , wonder why?

 

Appreciate this very kind comment from the smart and savvy Mr. Banjo.  Yes, as all of us consider making advanced payments to these cruise lines under the currently uncertain conditions, we need to weigh and measure carefully the risks and potential rewards.  Currently we are considering an August 2022 booking for the Galapagos Islands.  Full payment for this costly trip would be due in April.  This gives us some time to see what happens in the next four months before doing that final, big payment that would only be refundable, if and if, with FCC/Future Cruise Credits.  FCC could, maybe, involve some future risks?

 

As to Mr. Banjo feeling slighted by not be asking to loan RCL money, in my previous post, I explained that they are saving those "opportunities" till later when they might want to borrow bigger sums at higher interest rates for us high-rollers.  Right?  

  

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Summer 2019 Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

[dawntrdr]

      All these excellent observations made me realize that even though we are not being permitted to partipate in the $1B bond offering (that is for the institutional investors only), if we really want to lend to RCI, we can always do that by prepaying for a cruise, or at least putting down a deposit.  They may not be paying you 5.35%, but if you consider you are locking in a price that will very probably go up (and Siiversea has promised that prices ARE going up on Feb. 28), you are hedging against inflation.  Which, by what we are all seeing, may well have exceeded 5.35% by the time the final payment on your cruise is due.  You have to decide for yourself if this is a good investment.

    Of course, there is the risk, often mentioned on this board, of what happens if the cruise line goes under (no pun intended).  Well, what's going to happen to those $1B bondholders in that case?  Pretty much the same as us. 

[rkacruiser]

7 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Maybe Royal Caribbean did not call us for this "investment opportunity" because they are waiting till they need to contact us for when they want to borrow two billion dollars?  Why wasting our time on these smaller borrowings?  We are such "high rollers" who do not want to be bother by the "small stuff"??

 

🤣🤣🤣

[TLCOhio]

On 1/9/2022 at 11:27 AM, dawntrdr said:

All these excellent observations made me realize that even though we are not being permitted to partipate in the $1B bond offering (that is for the institutional investors only), if we really want to lend to RCI, we can always do that by prepaying for a cruise, or at least putting down a deposit.  They may not be paying you 5.35%, but if you consider you are locking in a price that will very probably go up (and Siiversea has promised that prices ARE going up on Feb. 28), you are hedging against inflation. 

 

YES, great comments and follow-ups from dawntrdr.  Excellent point as to how an advanced payment is a type of loan.  Maybe with a decent return if and when future prices rise.  But, with some degree of financial risk and uncertainty.  Maybe?  Maybe not? 

 

From MSN News and this Wall Street-related website this morning, they had interesting headline: “CDC Delivers Good News for Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Cruise Industry” with these highlights: “The pandemic hit the cruise industry about as hard as it hit any business segment. Ships were docked or out at sea with skeleton crews for more than a year.  While that was happening, the industry went to work, hiring top infectious-disease doctors, upgrading air filtration, and creating protocols to make cruising viable during a highly contagious pandemic.  Those efforts were somewhat rewarded in July when the CDC started allowing some sailings from U.S. ports under its conditional sailing order.  The standards were strict and the major cruise lines have sailed with limited (albeit rising) passenger counts, 100%-vaccinated crews and vaccination requirements for all passengers old enough to be vaccinated.  Now, however, even as omicron rages, the CDC has not only lifted its conditional sailing order, its director had some praise for the steps the industry has taken.   In October 2021, the CDC said it would let the conditional sail order expire on Jan. 15. With that day just a few days away, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky told Congress on Tuesday that the Covid-19 regulations would move from mandatory to voluntary on Jan. 15. Various cruise-line executives have gone out of their way to point out that protocols may not be able to stop transmission, but they can help contain outbreaks. Royal Caribbean President Michael Bayley shared in a recent Facebook post that infection rates on board are well below the rates on land.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/cdc-delivers-good-news-for-royal-caribbean-carnival-cruise-industry/ar-AASHTcI?ocid=BingNewsSearch

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 254,261 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[rkacruiser]

3 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Excellent point as to how an advanced payment is a type of loan.  Maybe with a decent return if and when future prices rise.  But, with some degree of financial risk and uncertainty.  Maybe?  Maybe not? 

 

I have a future cruise deposit in my account at Holland America Line.  They have been using my money since 2020.  Given the interest rate that money would have been earning at Chase Bank, I am happy with helping with their cash flow.  Is that money at financial risk?  No.  If I thought it was, I would be selling my CCL shares.  

[TLCOhio]

17 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

I have a future cruise deposit in my account at Holland America Line.  They have been using my money since 2020.  Given the interest rate that money would have been earning at Chase Bank, I am happy with helping with their cash flow.  Is that money at financial risk?  No.  If I thought it was, I would be selling my CCL shares.  

 

Great above follow-up from our Dayton-area neighbor in Ohio.  Too bad you do not own some Royal Caribbean stock.  Just did an early morning check and you can see the chart below.

 

When you look back to Dec. 1; 2021, RCL was at just $64.27.  Now, it is over $84 a share.  But on Nov. 5, 2021, it was at $96.67.  Up and down??  Lots of "roller coast" patterns during the past few months, right?  The other two major cruise lines are also up about 2% this morning.  Will have more later Friday or Saturday as to how these stocks finish for the week. 

 

My guess/speculation is that the CDC lifting some of their controls is helping the financial bettors hope that less choppy water will be coming soon as this latest variant lessens.  Reactions?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio 

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 243,246 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

 

From the Wall Street Journal early this Thursday morning, below reflects the steady and upward movement of their stock during the past month.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

[rkacruiser]

7 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Too bad you do not own some Royal Caribbean stock.  Just did an early morning check and you can see the chart below.

 

I do own RCI stock.  I just don't have a future cruise deposit with them.  

[TLCOhio]

22 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

I do own RCI stock.  I just don't have a future cruise deposit with them.  

 

Great that our Dayton-area neighbor owns RCL stock.  You have had a decent past week from Wall Street and are enjoying some upward movement.  Maybe you can afford dinner out this weekend at the Pine Club?  Like and know that "old-school" dining place on Brown Street near where you live?

 

Below are the movement, mostly all upward, as the Wall Street traders viewed the values of the three major cruise ship lines.  A positive sign for the future of cruising?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday afternoon, below reflects the steady and upward movement of the cruise stocks during the past week.  Ready to sing: "We're in the money" from the Broadway hit 42nd Street?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

 

 

[TLCOhio]

From the financial website linked below this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cancel More Cruises: Why That's Not Bad for Investors" with this sub-headline: "The cruise lines have canceled select sailings but Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line shareholders should take that as a positive.”

 

Here are some of the analysis highlights: “Every avid cruise line customer dreads getting emails from Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, or Carnival Cruise Line . That's because while the message might be about a change in itinerary or revised safety protocols -- annoying, but not too big a problem -- it's also possible that the email contains the much-dreaded cancellation notice.  Those were common and even expected in the early days of the pandemic.  Now, cancellations have returned as the omicron variant has led to higher levels of infections among crew members.  That's frustrating for Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian customers who have their trips canceled. It's even more frustrating for people whose trips get called off after they have already packed their bags or even flown to port cities.  The reality, however, is that the cancellations show that the cruise line's Covid protocols are working. That may be frustrating for travelers, but it's good news for shareholders in the three major cruise lines because it trades the major bad publicity caused by a passenger outbreak for the minor bad publicity from cancellation brings.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/royal-caribbean-norwegian-cancel-more-cruises-stock-investors

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 234,785 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

[rkacruiser]

21 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Maybe you can afford dinner out this weekend at the Pine Club?  Like and know that "old-school" dining place on Brown Street near where you live?

 

Yes, I have been to the Pine Club, but, it is not my favorite steak house in Dayton.  At least pre-Covid, its packed with people at prime dinner time and they don't take credit cards.  I don't like carrying the amount of cash one would need to dine at the Pine Club.  

 

No dinner out this week-end; it's NFL Wild Card week-end.  Most likely it will be a couple of dinners from Cassano's, a local favorite pizza restaurant of mine.  

[TLCOhio]

On 1/15/2022 at 1:51 PM, rkacruiser said:

Yes, I have been to the Pine Club, but, it is not my favorite steak house in Dayton.  At least pre-Covid, its packed with people at prime dinner time and they don't take credit cards.  I don't like carrying the amount of cash one would need to dine at the Pine Club.  No dinner out this week-end; it's NFL Wild Card week-end. 

 

Yes, the cash policy at the Pine Club can be challenging.  For me, someone else was paying both times, so that made everything much better, more tasty, etc.  Good luck for the Bengals in Nashville versus the Titans.

 

Been busy getting ready to fly south to the Florida Keys.  At the airport now getting ready to go non-stop to FLL, grab a car and head down for two weeks of sun and warmth in the scenic and fun Keys.  Would like to be on a cruise ship and/or in French Polynesia for the upcoming period, .  This "escape", however, is easier to do and not having as many "uncertainties" and hassles.  

 

Speaking of Covid and financial "concerns" related to cruising these days, Bloomberg News last night had this headline: “Genting Still Selling Cruise Tickets After Appointing Liquidator" with these sub-headlines:  "Covid crisis has pushed company into provisional liquidation. Dream Cruises offering voyages from Hong Kong and Singapore.” 

 

Why is this of interest?  Genting Hong Kong owns and runs Crystal Cruises.  We did and super enjoyed an 11-day Dover to Stockholm sailing that involved the Baltics, Russia, etc.  Amazing experience on a first-class line comparable to Silversea, Seabourn, etc.  As I posted a few months back on the Crystal boards, Genting was in big financial group then and it has become even more challenged.  When you cannot borrow money and your stock is worth pennies, how do you stay afloat, pay staff, purchase fuel and supplies, etc.?  "Liquidating" is not a pretty headline.  Nor, is the word "bankruptcy" encouraging.    Right?

 

Here are some of their story highlights: “Genting Hong Kong Ltd., the biggest cruise operator worldwide to seek court assistance to safeguard its assets during the pandemic, is still selling tickets for its 'cruises to nowhere.'   Crystal Cruises, another brand operated by Genting, has suspended its Ocean and Expedition trips through April and its River cruises to the end of May, according to a statement. It is offering refunds. Vessels in operation will complete their current voyages, with one ending on Saturday in Miami, another on Jan. 30 in Aruba and a third in Ushuaia, Argentina, on Feb. 4.  Genting said Wednesday it had filed with the Supreme Court of Bermuda to appoint provisional liquidators after exhausting 'all reasonable efforts' to negotiate with creditors and stakeholders. The company reported a record loss of $1.7 billion in May as the pandemic ravaged the industry. Its German shipbuilding subsidiary MV Werften went into insolvency last week. The company, which had about $453 million in cash and cash equivalents as of June last year, has warned it will run out of cash around the end of this month. It already halted payments to creditors totaling $3.4 billion in August 2020 and was in default of that amount at the end of that year.”

 

On the Crystal boards, many of their super loyal customers are hoping for the best and legitimately concerned as to what happens for the hard-working staff, their advanced deposits/payments, etc.  Not a pretty picture or story.  The good news is that Royal Caribbean and the other two major cruise companies have a fairly healthy, for now, pile of cash on hand.  Plus, some stock value in order to float added shares and keep the money flowing.  Crystal/Genting was "shut-down" for access to the "cash window" many months ago.  Once you shut-down, again, with no cash, it is hard to see "light at the end of the tunnel".  Reactions?

 

Full reporting at:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-21/genting-still-selling-cruise-tickets-after-appointing-liquidator?srnd=prognosis

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 93,783 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

[TLCOhio]

Feeling good relaxing in the Florida Keys as it is now 8F in Central Ohio versus the 75F high expected here today.  Snow coming tomorrow in Columbus.  Good timing by heading south?

 

Below shows the charts for the three major cruise lines.  Clearly, it has NOT been a good week.  Thursday and Friday were especially negative.  Glad I do not own any cruise ship stock.  The liquidation of the Crystal Cruises owner has not helped.   

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “Cruise Lines Betting on Summer Rebound Face Obstacles From Omicron" with this sub-headline: "Carnival and Royal Caribbean adjust to destinations’ changing health protocols as industry looks to recover from pandemic-related losses.”

 

Here are some of their story highlights: “The cruise industry’s bet on a big summer rebound is looking less certain.  Travel agents and industry executives say that while the season—which begins in April and runs to October—still looks strong, bookings have slowed since late last year. Some cruise lines have canceled or pushed back sailings as a result of the Omicron variant.  While cruise companies remain bullish about their prospects, the developments are the latest wrinkle for an industry that nearly two years after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic is working to recover from a mountain of debt and significant losses.  Omicron hasn’t resulted in rapidly spreading infections among passengers, cruise lines say, adding that operating pressures have eased since early in the pandemic, when liners were stuck for days or weeks outside ports as authorities tried to accommodate scores of sick and frustrated cruisers." 

 

Here is more: "Industry executives said that since the beginning of the year, cruise ships have been denied entry to island destinations such as Puerto Rico, Curaçao, Bonaire and Aruba. Some liners have canceled short cruises in South Africa and South America, saying changes in health protocols in some countries make trips nearly impossible.  Carnival, which for years notched steady growth of earnings and bookings, lost $9.5 billion in the year ended in November and $10.2 billion in the year before that. The company, which has roughly $33 billion of debt and about $9.4 billion in liquidity, said in December that it expects to return to profitability in the second half of this year.  Carnival now operates around 50 ships from its 94-vessel fleet after selling or recycling 19 vessels since the start of the pandemic. It expects all of its ships to be operational by early summer."

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cruise-lines-betting-on-summer-rebound-face-obstacles-from-omicron-11642856404

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 69,244 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

From the Wall Street Journal as of late Friday afternoon, below reflects the steady and downward movement of the cruise stocks during the past week.  Clearly singing last week "We're in the money" from the Broadway hit 42nd Street does not fit right now:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

 

 

[TLCOhio]

The Crystal Cruises "Soap Opera" continues.  Hollywood fiction writers could not dream up such a script like this one.  Very sad for the passengers, crew, etc.  The Crystal Symphony was our ship in July 2008 on our second cruise.  That great experience did the Baltics, Russia, etc.   

 

From the Bloomberg News yesterday, they had this headline: “U.S. Ready to Seize Genting Cruise Ship on Unpaid Fuel Bills" with this sub-headline: "U.S. district judge ordered ship’s seizure after lawsuit filed.” 

 

Here are some of their story highlights: “The Crystal Symphony, a luxury cruise ship operated by financially-strapped Genting Hong Kong Ltd., will be seized to repay $1.2 million in unpaid fuel bills if it docks in Miami Saturday, amid reports the vessel is being diverted to the Bahamas after a U.S. court issued an arrest warrant.  A U.S. marshall and a court-appointed custodian are ready to arrest the ship if it comes into port as scheduled Saturday morning in the Florida port city, according to J. Stephen Simms, the lead attorney representing Peninsula Petroleum Far East Pte. Ltd. who said he has been told of the plan.  Peninsula Petroleum Far East filed a lawsuit in the U.S. district court seeking to recoup $4.6 million in total unpaid fees for bunker fuel it has delivered to three of Genting’s ships since 2017. A U.S. federal district judge in Miami issued the arrest warrant for the Crystal Symphony Thursday, according to Simms and trade publication TradeWinds.  Lisa Jimenez, a passenger on the Crystal Symphony posted on Facebook about the sudden change. 'Does anyone want to guess why our ship, The Crystal Symphony, can now no longer disembark in Miami? We received noticed that we are being taken to Bimini, Bahamas, put on a ferry, and taken to the USA that way. Hmmmm.' ”

 

What a mess for the passengers and crew!!??  As the lead story this am with the London Daily Mail, here is what their updating headlines stated below with this one story highlight: "Now, the passengers are scrambling to re-book their onward travel after their arrival in south Florida was delayed by at least a day,  and the crew are facing the grim prospect of losing their jobs as the cruise line's parent company faces liquidation.": 

 

Full stories at:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-22/u-s-marshall-ready-to-seize-genting-ship-on-unpaid-fuel-bills

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10431571/Cruise-ship-700-passengers-crew-onboard-diverts-Bahamas-avoid-arrest-warrant.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 52,126 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

[TLCOhio]

Yesterday was an especially bad day for all three of the major cruise ship stocks.  Royal Caribbean was hit the hardest. Carnival was down 5.82%.  Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. was down 5.16% yesterday.   

 

More later as to how this past week looked overall from the perspective of the financial traders. Why?  Is this a long-term trend?  Has Crystal's negative turn affected things?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 48,790 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here is what happened with Royal Caribbean this week, especially showing the major slide yesterday.  What is next?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

[TLCOhio]

From this experienced financial website mid yesterday afternoon that is connected below, they had this headline: “Why Carnival and All the Other Cruise-Line Stocks Just Crashed"  with this key sub-headline: " 'Dampening' reservations means analyst predictions of a return to profits this year could be all wet.”

 

Here are some of their story/analysis highlights: “Cruise-tourism stocks tumbled in Thursday-afternoon trading, as Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings slid, Carnival Corporation same, and Royal Caribbean brought up the rear. If you own any of these three cruise stocks, you can thank Carnival for your losses today.    This morning, Carnival filed its 10-K annual report with the SEC and described the 'recent developments' affecting its business -- and perhaps that of other cruise lines, as well. As of two weeks ago, reports Carnival, 67% of the company's 'capacity' across eight of its nine cruise brands had resumed cruising, and Carnival expects 'to have our full fleet back in operation for our summer season where we historically generate the largest share of our operating income.' "  

 

Here is a key part of Carnival's SEC official filing in the cruise line's own words: "Higher cancellations resulting from an increase in pre-travel positive test results and challenges in the availability of timely pre-travel tests. In addition, in the last few weeks we have seen a dampening of the booking activity for the second half of 2022 relative to 2019."

 

This is additional from their report: "Customers are canceling trips in the first half of the year, and also 'dampening' reservations for the second half.  That sounds like Carnival is predicting a weak year all through 2022, which is obviously not what investors were hoping to hear today. As of this writing, neither Royal Caribbean nor Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings have published warnings similar to the one Carnival Corporation just put out. That being said, it stands to reason that if vacationers are leery of cruising with Carnival,  then they're probably going to be nervous about cruising with Norwegian and Royal Caribbean, as well.” 

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/27/why-carnival-and-the-other-cruise-stocks-crashed/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Nice visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic and historic location. Over 48,416 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

[rkacruiser]

3 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

"Customers are canceling trips in the first half of the year, and also 'dampening' reservations for the second half.  That sounds like Carnival is predicting a weak year all through 2022,

 

It's understandable to me that this is happening.  So much uncertainty, changing testing requirements, a seeming increase in the numbers vaccinated in getting break through Covid, reports by those cruising who have tested positive and are quarantined and sharing their experiences of that situation, and a Market that is nervous about what the Federal Reserve will do plus the situation in the Ukraine.  Isn't this time of year called the "Wave Season" for cruise bookings by travel agents?  If so, this year's season may be more like the "Ripple Season".  If that.  

[TLCOhio]

Strange stock market views/moves on the major cruise lines for this past week.  By 2 pm on Wednesday afternoon, Royal Caribbean was at $83.53, BUT then down to $71.97 by mid-morning today.  There was a little recovery later Friday afternoon, but overall during that 45-hour period was a drop of $11.56 a share.  That is a significant slide of nearly 14% during that short period.

 

Carnival in that same period went from $20.98 down to $18.30.  That a drop of $2.68 a share or a negative 12.8% during that 45-hour period.  RCHL went from  $21.70 down to $18.90 for that short time period.  That's a drop of $2.80 a share or down 12.8%. 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 42,900 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

From the Wall Street Journal as of late Friday afternoon, below reflects the mixed and later downward movement of the cruise stocks during the past week, especially since Wednesday afternoon.  These charts look like a "hump", up early in the week, then sliding more negative.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

 

 

Edited January 28, 2022 by TLCOhio

[TLCOhio]

 

47 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

It's understandable to me that this is happening.  So much uncertainty, changing testing requirements, a seeming increase in the numbers vaccinated in getting break through Covid, reports by those cruising who have tested positive and are quarantined and sharing their experiences of that situation, and a Market that is nervous about what the Federal Reserve will do plus the situation in the Ukraine.  Isn't this time of year called the "Wave Season" for cruise bookings by travel agents?  If so, this year's season may be more like the "Ripple Season".  If that.  

 

Great follow-up and points from our Ohio neighbor near Dayton.  Yes, the pending actions by the Federal Reserve and the total "wild cards" being played in and around the Ukraine make for an uncertain "brew".  Or, choppy seas??!!

 

Markets do not like uncertainties and conditions that are not under reasonable control.  Other theories, speculation, crystal ball informed guesses, etc.  Don't be shy!!

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 32,164 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

Edited January 28, 2022 by TLCOhio

[AmazedByCruising]

I'm a bit disappointed at the stock value of CCL, but Omicron is doing what was expected. In the midst of seeing the biggest wave ever, many countries are opening schools and bars.

While break-through infections exist, those patients don't need to be transported to a hospital. Almost everyone will either have had their vaccinations or an infection soon (a few months). 

I don't believe there will be any testing requirements in 2023, just like you didn't need to prove you weren't infected with Noro previously. Nor do I expect ports the be suddenly closed with ships looking for a harbor and other nasty stuff we've seen before. 

 

Interest rates, Ukraine (and Taiwain) etc. are of course a reason for stock prices to move, if the company makes food or bicycles or electronics. Cruise lines have been hit so hard by Covid that movements are dictated by Covid more than any other reason. So while I would have liked CCL to be at $22 instead of $18.90, those 2 percent up, 3 percent down are the mood of the day, not the volatility to be expected in a year. That's either CCL going bankrupt or CCL returning to business as usual. I'm leaving my chips on the latter 🙂

 

[cruiseej]

3 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Markets do not like uncertainties and conditions that are not under reasonable control.

 

Markets also over-react. To everything. Crystal going under should have almost no bearing on the major cruise line stocks. It's a small company, with 3 ocean and 5 small river cruise ships, only in the luxury market. It's problems are due to the financing of the privately-held company. Exacerbated by Covid, of course, but different financial woes than the other cruise lines face. In the luxury market, Crystal sinking is actually boosting bookings for Seabourn, Silversea and Regent. In the overall cruise market, Crystal is just a blip.

 

In a few weeks, if Omicron is clearly fading, there will be reports that summer travel demand is suddenly surging, and cruise line stocks will soar. Until the next hiccup, and they'll tank again. Wall Street is always incredibly short-sighted and can only seem to absorb the latest news hit and look at next quarter's profit potential.

[frantic36]

10 hours ago, cruiseej said:

Wall Street is always incredibly short-sighted and can only seem to absorb the latest news hit and look at next quarter's profit potential.

 

Shall we just say financial markets everywhere are frequently short-sighted. Something my husband has taught me over the years is to not panic with highs and lows. He has invested for years and though there are times he has gritted his teeth he has taught me to stay calm as long as he knows when to read stocks are over inflated and best to get some cash in the game ready for the down turn. It doesn't always work but enough and long may it continue.

[TLCOhio]

12 hours ago, cruiseej said:

Markets also over-react. To everything. Crystal going under should have almost no bearing on the major cruise line stocks. It's a small company, with 3 ocean and 5 small river cruise ships, only in the luxury market. It's problems are due to the financing of the privately-held company. Exacerbated by Covid, of course, but different financial woes than the other cruise lines face. In the luxury market, Crystal sinking is actually boosting bookings for Seabourn, Silversea and Regent. In the overall cruise market, Crystal is just a blip.

 

Appreciate these various comments and follow-ups from our friends in Australia, Philadelphia and Holland.  Lots of solid wisdom and insights offered.  

 

From a PR news release yesterday, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean Group to hold conference call on business update, fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial results” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group has scheduled a conference call for 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time, Friday, February 4, 2022, to provide a business update and discuss fourth quarter and full-year 2021 financial results.  The call will be available on the company's investor relations website, www.rclinvestor.com.  To listen to the call by phone, please dial (833) 608-1479 in the US and Canada.  International phone calls should be made to (270) 240-0549. The conference call access code is 3968368. A replay of the webcast will remain available at the same website for a month following the call.”

 

The new RCL CEO should get some interesting questions, including about how advanced bookings are coming in for the second half of 2022.  We will be traveling back from the Florida Keys on that date, but will try to listen to an audio replay later and share my reactions and highlights.  

 

Full story at:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/royal-caribbean-group-to-hold-conference-call-on-business-update-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2021-financial-results-1031140375

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,949 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

[RetiredandTravel]

2 hours ago, frantic36 said:

 

Shall we just say financial markets everywhere are frequently short-sighted. Something my husband has taught me over the years is to not panic with highs and lows. He has invested for years and though there are times he has gritted his teeth he has taught me to stay calm as long as he knows when to read stocks are over inflated and best to get some cash in the game ready for the down turn. It doesn't always work but enough and long may it continue.

 

Smart man.

 

The cruise lines appear to be in a race to see if they can fill enough rooms to quickly pay down the debt.  The interest rate the cruise lines pay is facing two strong headwinds to drive rates higher.  1) the Fed is tightening which impacts over all interest rates and 2) the Fed is winding down Quantitative Easing which could adversely impact the credit spreads. 

 

I don't necessarily agree with this viewpoint but this is the bear case on RCL, always good to know.  The article is a few weeks old, I apologize if its already been posted.  Full disclosure, I think these people have been negative for a long time.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477608-royal-caribbean-cruises-dont-do-it

 

Crystals issues may be a long term positive for the other luxury lines.