NCL Cancellation Announcements - January 5th 2022

[cltcruisers123]

28 minutes ago, aubreyc1988 said:

So sorry to everyone who has had a sailing cancelled. Crossing my fingers for my sailing on Joy 1/22

We’re on same cruise. I’m all in, but won’t lose any sleep if they want to give me a full refund either ha. Already have Mardi Gras booked for April

[yankees111]

13 minutes ago, aubreyc1988 said:

attitude is everything they say. 

Wearing a mask everywhere indoors, people being quarantined, entertainment being cancelled all over the place. No thank you. I will wait. I do not need to be on a ship that bad!

[aubreyc1988]

2 minutes ago, yankees111 said:

Wearing a mask everywhere indoors, people being quarantined, entertainment being cancelled all over the place. No thank you. I will wait. I do not need to be on a ship that bad!

your prerogative of course. Have a great day! 

Edited January 5, 2022 by aubreyc1988

[MichiganBound]

I agree with others that we may see a complete shutdown soon.  If it happens, I expect it will be fairly short-lived.  Omicron moves through populations very very quickly.  Maybe things will shut down for January/February and then re-open in March (Subject, of course, to any new troubling variants emerging).  

[JustAPilot]

Meanwhile our friends in the Carnival forum are all systems go on the fun ship, except for the fact Islands are starting to ban cruise ships from docking. At this point shut it all down until spring break when this passes over. 

[BermudaBound2014]

I'm trying to understand  why NCL is the only cruise line with cancellations so far.

 

I read one theory that because they are such a small company in terms of market share (when compared to CCL and RCL they are tiny), that they just don't have as much flexibility. 

 

There are darker theories floating around too.

 

Strange things that interest me.

[TNcruising02]

I think cruises will shut down on a ship-by-ship/itinerary basis.  No reason to ground all ships if all ships don't have high infection rates.  I believe the problem right now is the high infection rates among the crew members.  Once that runs its course, then things will get better.  I think it's a great idea to transfer infected crew members to another location and pick up those who are no longer infected.

Those who don't want to sail should not sail.  These crew members went a long time without working during the shutdown.  If the lines can make it work, they should.  People who are fearful do not have to travel right now.  We are vaccinated and have had covid, so we are not fearful.  However, I think anyone who is extremely high risk should think twice and then think twice again before traveling anywhere.

[CarolinaMamma]

3 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I'm trying to understand  why NCL is the only cruise line with cancellations so far.

 

I read one theory that because they are such a small company in terms of market share (when compared to CCL and RCL they are tiny), that they just don't have as much flexibility. 

 

There are darker theories floating around too.

 

Strange things that interest me.

I’ve been wondering this, too. NCL seemed the most cautious of the lines, requiring 100% vaccination, which I think was smart. Are they seeing the writing on the wall and making another smart decision now? 

 

Cash flow has got to be their biggest concern. Could they be saving on labor costs if they pre-emptively cancel cruises? Probably.
 

Maybe they figure a high percentage of crew are going to get omicron and they will

rotate the sick ones to the ships that are not in use, and concentrate the healthy ones on the ships that are still running. This seems logistically difficult, but is a possibility. 
 

Giving people advance notice of cancelled cruises rather than cancelling at the last minute results in fewer pissed-off customers. 
 

The Getaway letter yesterday offered a full rebuke PLUS a 100% FCC, which they probably don’t want to do again. Cancelling cruises at the last minute may cost them more.

 

Meanwhile if Carnival keeps partying on, the CDC could end up shutting down all cruising, 

[wolft927]

We are booked on the Breakaway for March 6th 2022 and are looking forward to it. Hopefully by then Omnicron calms down a bit. We are both Fully Vaccinated and actually We both got tested positive on Friday the 31st. Mild symptoms like a cold and by Sunday the 2nd all my symptoms where gone and feeling Fine. Not at all worried about getting covid so If we can cruise march 6th we are there

[goldmom]

I'm thinking that more than likely the crew got the J & J vaccine.  Hopefully they are also working on getting boosters for the crew to try to protect them as much as possible.

Guess we're all just going to have to take a wait and see approach.

[CarolinaMamma]

42 minutes ago, yankees111 said:

Wearing a mask everywhere indoors, people being quarantined, entertainment being cancelled all over the place. No thank you. I will wait. I do not need to be on a ship that bad!

The great thing about cruising is that it has something for everyone. We all enjoy cruising for different reasons. 
 

in the Caribbean, we don’t really cruise for the ports. Getting away from the internet (because if my husband has access, someone from work will bother him even if he’s on vacation) not having to cook or clean, and our teenagers being able to be on their own schedule and not dragged around sightseeing with us all day are the three main reasons we love cruising at this point in our lives. I could probably get all that on a cruise to nowhere. 
 

Now if all the bars or specialty restaurants were closed, that might be a different story…
 

If entertainment or ports are the main reasons you enjoy cruising, I totally respect that. To each his own!  
 

Here’s hoping we can get back to “normal” cruising soon! 

[jingle5616]

Some of these cancellations are because of low bookings and staff shortages.  That is all......

[BermudaBound2014]

3 minutes ago, CarolinaMamma said:

I’ve been wondering this, too. NCL seemed the most cautious of the lines, requiring 100% vaccination, which I think was smart. Are they seeing the writing on the wall and making another smart decision now? Seems unlikely to me, but what do I know?  I tend to believe if they could be sailing they would be sailing. I suspect they reached a tipping point where some cruises just wouldn't be profitable. Low initial bookings and then all the last minute cancellations. NCL knows exactly how many bodies they need onboard to turn the sailing green.

 

Cash flow has got to be their biggest concern. Could they be saving on labor costs if they pre-emptively cancel cruises? Probably. I would bet labor cost savings are very small comparatively. The cash burn remains enormous. 
 

Maybe they figure a high percentage of crew are going to get omicron and they will

rotate the sick ones to the ships that are not in use, and concentrate the healthy ones on the ships that are still running. This seems logistically difficult, but is a possibility.  That is what RCL is doing.
 

Giving people advance notice of cancelled cruises rather than cancelling at the last minute results in fewer pissed-off customers.  Well, that is certainly one way to look at it. I'm all for customer care, but pissing off the share holders is an entirely different ballgame. I suspect something is happening behind the scenes.
 

The Getaway letter yesterday offered a full rebuke PLUS a 100% FCC, which they probably don’t want to do again. Cancelling cruises at the last minute may cost them more. I still think that offer was a mistake which resulted from poor proof-reading. Time will tell. lol

 

Meanwhile if Carnival keeps partying on, the CDC could end up shutting down all cruising, I don't believe the CDC can shut down cruising again. The court ruled they 'over-reached'. The current order expired January 15th. I could be wrong. I've read so much that it starts to get all mixed up in my already turbid brain :). Again, time will tell.

See above in Red.

 

On a side note, the Pride of America was set to sail back to Hawaii in two weeks. Ironically, Hawaii signed the first port agreement to allow cruising to resume yesterday. CCL has two ships headed there right now (Grand Princess and Carnival Miracle). Thus, it appears that the Pride cancellations is not the fault of the Hawaiian government. 

[JustAPilot]

Another interesting point that others are making is it’s one thing for your bartender or waiter to quarantine but what if it starts hitting the bridge crew? You can’t just swap in a new captain on the fly and tell them to drive the Bliss if they have only captained the Joy for example.

I think NCL critical crew are starting to go down with the virus and this is more of a risk mitigation at this point.

[AnitaVacation]

Nobody knows what's going to happen next....taking this day by day.  We all thought that being fully vaccinated and boosted, sailing with fully vaccinated crew and passengers would be the only way around the pandemic.  Now, breakthrough cases everywhere. So back to the drawing board.

 

I hope that at least once you have Omicron, you're immune.  Guess we will have to wait to see what happens next.  I know it has been shown that people that had Covid-19.1 (the original variant) can get it again, especially if unvaccinated.  

 

So, I guess until everyone is vaccinated or has had it and got some sort of immunity, this will keep going round and round...

[BermudaBound2014]

7 minutes ago, goldmom said:

I'm thinking that more than likely the crew got the J & J vaccine. 

 

NCL was using J&J for months to vaccinate their crew. I'm not sure if the other cruise lines also used J&J.

[BermudaBound2014]

Just now, AnitaVacation said:

............. We all thought that being fully vaccinated and boosted, sailing with fully vaccinated crew and passengers would be the only way around the pandemic. 

 

Just for the record (and I sincerely don't mean this to sound b*tchy)..... but we "all" did not think that NCL"s policy of being fully vaccinated would make much difference in the long run.

[CarolinaMamma]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

See above in Red.

 

On a side note, the Pride of America was set to sail back to Hawaii in two weeks. Ironically, Hawaii signed the first port agreement to allow cruising to resume yesterday. CCL has two ships headed there right now (Grand Princess and Carnival Miracle). Thus, it appears that the Pride cancellations is not the fault of the Hawaiian government. 

I think you are absolutely correct about the calculations of whether sailings are profitable is playing a huge part here. 
 

People like me who are playing chicken with the cruise line and not cancelling because we’d rather have a cash refund than FCC probably don’t help. Wonder how they will estimate how many people will cancel 48 hours out under POM. 

[BermudaBound2014]

Just now, CarolinaMamma said:

I think you are absolutely correct about the calculations of whether sailings are profitable is playing a huge part here. 
 

People like me who are playing chicken with the cruise line and not cancelling because we’d rather have a cash refund than FCC probably don’t help. Wonder how they will estimate how many people will cancel 48 hours out under POM. 

 

You know my feeling ........ hold out for that cash as long as humanly possible.

[AwesomO]

Pure speculation. I'm thinking the ships have been been running on a deficit since they can't sail at  full capacity yet, but some income is than none. But I imagine with the big increase in covid cases, and their guarantee to help with expenses if you had your negative pcr before arrived, plus the assurance if you become positive during the cruise, they are likely bleeding money now. It's probably no longer a good financial choice to run what they can because running is losing more money than sitting idle would, I imagine. The port changes, less excursion money, cost of moving crew around. It's just all very unstable right now. 

[gmm8631]

31 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I'm trying to understand  why NCL is the only cruise line with cancellations so far.

 

I read one theory that because they are such a small company in terms of market share (when compared to CCL and RCL they are tiny), that they just don't have as much flexibility. 

 

There are darker theories floating around too.

 

Strange things that interest me.

From what i read on other threads both CCL and RCL have ships that are not in service to offload ill crew members. NCL being a smaller company does not have that option.

[SimplyAlbert]

1 hour ago, Brian V said:

It's was -28c this morning where I am 🥶 - sitting on a ship in shorts and a tee shirt, sipping a Mojito sounds pretty damn good to me even if I have to wear a mask indoors!

I'm with you.  DH and I talked last night and decided if the ship is sailing we'll be on it, even if it turns out being a cruise to nowhere.

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, AwesomO said:

Pure speculation. I'm thinking the ships have been been running on a deficit since they can't sail at  full capacity yet, but some income is than none. But I imagine with the big increase in covid cases, and their guarantee to help with expenses if you had your negative pcr before arrived, plus the assurance if you become positive during the cruise, they are likely bleeding money now. It's probably no longer a good financial choice to run what they can because running is losing more money than sitting idle would, I imagine. The port changes, less excursion money, cost of moving crew around. It's just all very unstable right now. 

 

According to the last two quarterly releases; NCL has been burning over 200 million every MONTH!  

 

The only reason they can't sail at full capacity is that there aren't enough passengers who want to book. Demand is just not there. 

 

The big question, as I see it, is why is it that only NCL is cancelling sailings? 

 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

6 minutes ago, gmm8631 said:

From what i read on other threads both CCL and RCL have ships that are not in service to offload ill crew members. NCL being a smaller company does not have that option.

 

NCL still has ships that have not returned to service yet, but I don't believe any of them are in the Caribbean right now. 

[TNcruising02]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

According to the last two quarterly releases; NCL has been burning over 200 million every MONTH!  

 

The only reason they can't sail at full capacity is that there aren't enough passengers who want to book. Demand is just not there. 

 

The big question, as I see it, is why is it that only NCL is cancelling sailings? 

 

 

 

Someone mentioned that since they are a smaller line, they are unable to offload infected people and replace them with people who are no longer infected.  It does make sense that the larger lines have more options.