NCL Cancellation Announcements - January 5th 2022

[aubreyc1988]

5 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

The source comes directly from NCL and Del Rio. In the second quarter earnings call he specifically gives the timeline for when his ships will be able to sail with 100%. It is 60 days from the first day back in service. Then, at the third quarter earnings call he admits that his ships are only sailing at 57% occupancy.

 

I don't believe the high prices for advanced cruises are an intentional move to keep occupancy down. There are lots of financial reasons to keep those prices high given that NCL is still borrowing money to stay afloat. The real teller about capacity is that the last minute pricing on NCL over the fall was insanely cheap. For a cruise in December, you could book 7 nights in a balcony for under $400 and sometimes that included all 4 perks. They were practically giving cruises away to get bodies onboard. Take a look at these quarterlies and it may make a lot more sense.

 

https://www.nclhltd.com/investors/financial-information/financial-results

 

 

 

If you can get a body onboard filled with free booze, decisions will be made in that casino, just sayin' 😉  not that I know from experience or anything 

Edited January 5, 2022 by aubreyc1988

[SireDoime]

1 minute ago, Rob_H said:

 

Well spotted!  There is also a "Travel Advisory" banner at the top of the home page for ncl.com.  Clicking on the "more info" gives the current update, with the correct date.  It's normal for NCL to publish first, proofread later.

 

 

Ahhhh, now I see it...well...the banner should have been red. Just sayin'...

[CiaraMissed]

5 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

The source comes directly from NCL and Del Rio. In the second quarter earnings call he specifically gives the timeline for when his ships will be able to sail with 100%. It is 60 days from the first day back in service. Then, at the third quarter earnings call he admits that his ships are only sailing at 57% occupancy.

 

I don't believe the high prices for advanced cruises are an intentional move to keep occupancy down. There are lots of financial reasons to keep those prices high given that NCL is still borrowing money to stay afloat. The real teller about capacity is that the last minute pricing on NCL over the fall was insanely cheap. For a cruise in December, you could book 7 nights in a balcony for under $400 and sometimes that included all 4 perks. They were practically giving cruises away to get bodies onboard. Take a look at these quarterlies and it may make a lot more sense.

 

https://www.nclhltd.com/investors/financial-information/financial-results

And I think that's part of the reason why they're suspending these cruises. If they know some portion of their passengers (and their close contacts) will end up quarantining in their stateroom, it's a pretty big loss since one of the main goals is to get people on the ship to spend money on upcharges and upsells - art auctions, bingo, specialty dining, etc. It's tough to spend money if you're locked in your cabin. Higher cruise prices for future sailings may be to insulate against this a bit, baking in the expected on-board spend into the fare.

[Snowrose]

30 minutes ago, TAMUPhD said:

could you please share the site where you saw this info?  I have looked at a few and still seeing NCL ships listed.

Actually, I still have the document in my files...

e0a2e7_2fbd264de6404f00b1ca98eb2f6024bf.pdf

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, aubreyc1988 said:

If you can get a body onboard filled with free booze, decisions will be made in that casino, just sayin' 😉 

 

Exactly!!!  I don't blame NCL. They keep initial prices high, which makes investors feel good and makes long term projections about solvency feel a bit safter. Then, after final payment they slash prices into the give away zone to get bodies onboard to spend money to make profits. Del Rio did say that his ships were sailing green (even though the company as a whole is burning 2 million a month). I am confident that NCL is not keeping initial prices high to specifically keep occupancy low. Nope, that doesn't pass the smell test for this ol' gal. 

[BermudaBound2014]

6 minutes ago, CiaraMissed said:

And I think that's part of the reason why they're suspending these cruises. If they know some portion of their passengers (and their close contacts) will end up quarantining in their stateroom, it's a pretty big loss since one of the main goals is to get people on the ship to spend money on upcharges and upsells - art auctions, bingo, specialty dining, etc. It's tough to spend money if you're locked in your cabin. Higher cruise prices for future sailings may be to insulate against this a bit, baking in the expected on-board spend into the fare.

 

I respectfully disagree. Suspending cruises was the last thing that NCL wanted to do. We can't think of this from the lens of the cruise consumers; IMO we need to put on the shoes of the investors. Right now, NCL needs them more then they need us because they have taken on enormous debt that will need to be restructured. This offering in November is likely one of many to come...

 

MIAMI, Nov. 16, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NCLH) (the “Company”) announced today that it has priced its registered direct offering of 46,858,854 ordinary shares of the Company (the “Offering”) to certain holders of NCL Corporation Ltd.’s (“NCLC”), a subsidiary of the Company, 6.00% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2024 at a price of $23.64 per share.

 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/11/17/2335956/24500/en/Norwegian-Cruise-Line-Holdings-Ltd-Announces-Pricing-of-46-858-854-Ordinary-Shares.html

Edited January 5, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[FlashF15]

7 minutes ago, Snowrose said:

Actually, I still have the document in my files...

e0a2e7_2fbd264de6404f00b1ca98eb2f6024bf.pdf 317.66 kB · 8 downloads

What is that file?  It's nothing about the Jan 5 cancellations.

[Karaboudjan]

8 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Exactly!!!  I don't blame NCL. They keep initial prices high, which makes investors feel good and makes long term projections about solvency feel a bit safter. Then, after final payment they slash prices into the give away zone to get bodies onboard to spend money to make profits. Del Rio did say that his ships were sailing green (even though the company as a whole is burning 2 million a month). I am confident that NCL is not keeping initial prices high to specifically keep occupancy low. Nope, that doesn't pass the smell test for this ol' gal. 

As FDR said demand out there on the post-COVID horizon is good, and these waves of outbreaks and cancellations are only pushing out more of it, so why not price accordingly?

EDIT - That's a rhetorical question!

Edited January 5, 2022 by Karaboudjan

[raitch]

28 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

The source comes directly from NCL and Del Rio. In the second quarter earnings call he specifically gives the timeline for when his ships will be able to sail with 100%. It is 60 days from the first day back in service. Then, at the third quarter earnings call he admits that his ships are only sailing at 57% occupancy.

 

I don't believe the high prices for advanced cruises are an intentional move to keep occupancy down. There are lots of financial reasons to keep those prices high given that NCL is still borrowing money to stay afloat. The real teller about capacity is that the last minute pricing on NCL over the fall was insanely cheap. For a cruise in December, you could book 7 nights in a balcony for under $400 and sometimes that included all 4 perks. They were practically giving cruises away to get bodies onboard. Take a look at these quarterlies and it may make a lot more sense.

 

https://www.nclhltd.com/investors/financial-information/financial-results

 

 

 

We were on Gem last week and the captain said specifically that their guest capacity was capped at 60%. 

[BermudaBound2014]

10 minutes ago, Karaboudjan said:

As FDR said demand out there on the post-COVID horizon is good, and these waves of outbreaks and cancellations are only pushing out more of it, so why not price accordingly?

EDIT - That's a rhetorical question!

 

Sure, they can price accordingly if demand is good. Shareholders want that. Investors want that. But that wasn't what I was responding to. I was responding to the poster who said they are pricing in an attempt to keep occupancy low. That I don't buy for one minute.

 

PS: Fain (RCL)  just walked backward on his claims that demand is at a record high in 2022. Now the story is that demand will be high the second half of 2022 lol. 

 

Anyone who doesn't believe that cruise lines are in jeopardy of solvency should seriously consider going long right now. I'm short for another 6 months. 

[BermudaBound2014]

7 minutes ago, raitch said:

We were on Gem last week and the captain said specifically that their guest capacity was capped at 60%. 

 

You are absolutely free to believe what the captain says. Just like people are free to believe what crew says. I'm much more skeptical and tend to believe what the market indicates and what the quarterly financial reports state (not how Del Rio and his team spin them of course :)). Let us not forget Enron. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Karaboudjan]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Sure, they can price accordingly if demand is good. Shareholders want that. Investors want that. But that wasn't what I was responding to. I was responding to the poster who said they are pricing in an attempt to keep occupancy low. That I don't buy for one minute.

 

PS: Fain (RCL)  just walked backward on his claims that demand is at a record high in 2022. Now the story is that demand will be high the second half of 2022 lol. 

 

Anyone who doesn't believe that cruise lines are in jeopardy of solvency should seriously consider going long right now. I'm short for another 6 months. 

Yes, I was agreeing with you.  🙂

[Snowrose]

22 minutes ago, FlashF15 said:

What is that file?  It's nothing about the Jan 5 cancellations.

It's the port listings for St Thomas. How many NCL ships do you see that are scheduled to go into Caribbean ports through Sept 2022? Only Norwegian Dawn is listed, for one trip on 2/2/22. There are no other NCL ships listed for the Caribbean. Or cat least not for the ports covered in that document.

Edited January 5, 2022 by Snowrose

[CiaraMissed]

21 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Sure, they can price accordingly if demand is good. Shareholders want that. Investors want that. But that wasn't what I was responding to. I was responding to the poster who said they are pricing in an attempt to keep occupancy low. That I don't buy for one minute.

 

PS: Fain (RCL)  just walked backward on his claims that demand is at a record high in 2022. Now the story is that demand will be high the second half of 2022 lol. 

 

Anyone who doesn't believe that cruise lines are in jeopardy of solvency should seriously consider going long right now. I'm short for another 6 months. 

To clarify my comments, I wasn't suggesting that the pricing is to keep occupancy low. I was saying that any long-term increase in prices is to hedge a bit against a person boarding a ship, getting quarantined and therefore unable to spend money on additional services onboard.

[BermudaBound2014]

49 minutes ago, CiaraMissed said:

And I think that's part of the reason why they're suspending these cruises. 

 

 

I was only responding to your highlighted text. I didn't think you were at all suggesting anything about keeping pricing high to keep occupancy low. Sorry if that got misinterpreted. 🙂

 

2 minutes ago, CiaraMissed said:

To clarify my comments, I wasn't suggesting that the pricing is to keep occupancy low. I was saying that any long-term increase in prices is to hedge a bit against a person boarding a ship, getting quarantined and therefore unable to spend money on additional services onboard.

 

 

[vpearlkc]

2 hours ago, Lou33 said:

Another concern for the cruise lines is the number of people cancelling for a refund at final payment.  There is a poll on another thread that shows a 75% cancellation rate.  So in about 6 weeks they may have only 450 paid passengers on a megaship.  I can't see them sailing if that is the case.

That's us. Our final payment is due the second week of February for the Jewel on April 10th. No way I'm tying up 3 grand on a long shot. 

[FlashF15]

@Cruise Gopher where did you get those pages?  Were they emailed to you?  It looks completely different than what I see on their website.

[dmh165638]

Is it a coincidence that all the ships on that Travel Advisory are the old/smaller ships in the fleet?  Other than the Getaway cancellation.  I would assume the newer/bigger ships are more profitable so are they concentrating on keeping those going and hoping bookings for those ships increase?

[pandncruisers]

We are on the Epic on 01/23 & 01/30 with a stop in St Thomas on the 01/30 cruise so it looks like that will not happen?

[Brian V]

5 hours ago, jlseymour3 said:

or to ensure I'm "actively drinking."

No danger of that not being the case🤪

[CILCIANRQTS]

1 hour ago, pandncruisers said:

We are on the Epic on 01/23 & 01/30 with a stop in St Thomas on the 01/30 cruise so it looks like that will not happen?

I hope you don’t make all your conclusions based on one CC posting.

 

https://www.ncl.com/fr/en/newsroom/media-statements/

 

https://www.cruisemapper.com/ports/saint-thomas-island-port-604

Edited January 6, 2022 by CILCIANRQTS

[ziggyuk]

So the Jade is cancelled through 3rd March with a return to service on 30th March.

 

That makes no sense what is the ship doing for the month of March it's either cancelled or sailing?

[Cruise Gopher]

1 hour ago, FlashF15 said:

@Cruise Gopher where did you get those pages?  Were they emailed to you?  It looks completely different than what I see on their website.

NCL TA website

[BirdTravels]

8 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I'm trying to understand  why NCL is the only cruise line with cancellations so far.

 

I read one theory that because they are such a small company in terms of market share (when compared to CCL and RCL they are tiny), that they just don't have as much flexibility. 

 

There are darker theories floating around too.

 

Strange things that interest me.

They are cancelling low revenue cruises. Cruises that are losing more money than others. It's cheaper to let the ships sit than operate them with low capacity. It also pushes people who want to cruise to other ships, so the capacity on other ships go up. Airlines do it all the time. 

[Lottosal65]

8 hours ago, CarolinaMamma said:

I think you are absolutely correct about the calculations of whether sailings are profitable is playing a huge part here. 
 

People like me who are playing chicken with the cruise line and not cancelling because we’d rather have a cash refund than FCC probably don’t help. Wonder how they will estimate how many people will cancel 48 hours out under POM. 

We did close to that for the Jan. 3rd sailing of the Pearl, canceled on Friday the 31st for Monday's sailing, were also concerned about flights, potentially getting stuck in Miami (we booked our own flights), bringing COVID back to vulnerable loved ones... I can't imagine how many others are now thinking about this. (And we're sad for everyone that Pearl come back so soon, but happy we're not scrambling in Miami right now and are comfortable at home). I made a spreadsheet today of possible trips for us this year, we'll rebook with FCC as soon as it posts to my account.