How are Covid cases on NCL ships?

[UKstages]

On 5/28/2022 at 8:29 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

Cruise lines are losing billions of dollars each quarter right now with just the vaccine protocol as it removes about 35% of the population from their consumer base.

 

as pointed out before in another thread, there is a strong fallacy at play here. you assume that the population of potential cruisers is the same as the general population. it is not. cruise lines may be losing billions of dollars, but it isn't because 35% of their customer base has been rendered incapable of cruising.

 

NCL (And every other cruise line) has the numbers on how many likely cruisers... former and potential customers are vaccinated. former and potential cruisers comprise a very thin slice of the gen pop and most are likely vaccinated... demographics are at play here, including education, age and disposable income. again, i don't have that figure, but NCL surely does.  and if it were anywhere near 35% of former and potential customers, they would be lobbying to drop the vax requirement in a hot minute.

 

On 5/30/2022 at 8:21 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

If cruise ships are trying to keep serious covid illness off ships, comorbidity as a variable can not be ignored. Of course, it will be ignored, but that's the nature of business.

 

 

comorbidity, shmomorbidity.

 

it's not the comorbidity that's the exacerbating problem. it's covid and the variants. people live long and relatively healthy lives with diabetes and obesity and heart conditions and all manner of "comorbidities."  

Edited May 31, 2022 by UKstages

[Markanddonna]

At this point, it seems obvious that little is working. On airplanes or restaurants, covid is spread even before the mask is removed. Passengers needs vaccinations and then testing. Still, fully vaxxed, tested and careful people get Covid. All this seems an exercise in futility.

[BermudaBound2014]

@UKstages I understand it's hard to shift mindset.

 

Comorbidity is the most common variable to ending up in the hospital with covid. It's undeniable. I'm sure all those in the hospital right now with covid because they have an underlining health condition take their comorbidity a bit more serious.

 

Your insensitive comment "comorbidity/shmorbidity"  played your entire hand. Bravo 😄 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[ChiefMateJRK]

On 5/15/2022 at 6:12 PM, mummyez said:

I was hysterical I thought we would just have to stay in our mini suite balcony cabin .

Next time just do that.

[CrazyTrain2]

This shows the quick progression and impact of Omicron BA.2.121 on the fleet.  The first picture is for Norwegian from 5/15/22 (BA2 has been ravaging the fleet prior to 5/15 replacing BA1, but I don't have a screenshot).  The second is from Norwegian as of Yesterday 5/31/22 and the final is for the entire fleet as of 5/31/22.  Keep in mind no RED status will ever be reported.  Well over 90% of the fleet is ORANGE.  In a two week period the graph has shifted dramatically right.  It does not really matter which cruise line you choose - they are all getting hammered.  BA.2.121 is simply playing with the current Covid prevention protocols like a cat with a mouse.

 

The isolation decks are just a punishment for those truthfully reporting.

 

I'm still waiting for my FOIA request to be processed by the CDC to get the actual numbers for all ships since January 1.

 

Cruise on my friends, but boost up before traveling.

[wil e coyote]

Good data.

I realize that not everyone will agree with what I am about to say, but I will wade in anyway. Most of data on COVID risk is totally focused on the likelihood of catching it. But formal risk analysis is typically based on two factors - likelihood AND consequence.  And for most people, the consequence of catching the current variant is significantly less severe than earlier strains. It's hard to measure consequence directly, but a good indicator is hospitalization rates. The hospitalization rates are much lower right now than they were for prior variants. So for many people, "catching COVID" doesn't mean the same thing it would have meant one or two years ago.

All that said - while the risk of catching COVID is (sort of) a universal thing based on the transmissibility of the virus and how you to interact with the rest of society, the potential consequence is very individual. Basically healthy people are likely to have a less severe consequence than others who are already compromised in some way.

So, in a very long-winded way - I respect those who are not worried about catching COVID, and those who are. Everyone is in a different place on the risk/consequence continuum.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, wil e coyote said:

Good data.

I realize that not everyone will agree with what I am about to say, but I will wade in anyway. Most of data on COVID risk is totally focused on the likelihood of catching it. But formal risk analysis is typically based on two factors - likelihood AND consequence.  And for most people, the consequence of catching the current variant is significantly less severe than earlier strains. It's hard to measure consequence directly, but a good indicator is hospitalization rates. The hospitalization rates are much lower right now than they were for prior variants. So for many people, "catching COVID" doesn't mean the same thing it would have meant one or two years ago.

All that said - while the risk of catching COVID is (sort of) a universal thing based on the transmissibility of the virus and how you to interact with the rest of society, the potential consequence is very individual. Basically healthy people are likely to have a less severe consequence than others who are already compromised in some way.

So, in a very long-winded way - I respect those who are not worried about catching COVID, and those who are. Everyone is in a different place on the risk/consequence continuum.

It's Darwin's law of natural selection in action. If a virus becomes so deadly it kills off all its hosts, it too dies out as there are no hosts. The way a virus survives is to become both more contagious and less virulent at the same time.

[cruisingrandy]

Got off of Jewel in Vancouver Monday May 30.  We didn't fly til Tuesday May 31 and on the plane one person who also just got off the Jewel said he heard there were 38 positive cases from the onboard test sunday that was optional if you were  flying on Monday.  We did Emed test in hotel in Anchorage and again in Vancouver and it was very fast and easy and all negative results. Cruise was very good but almost 90% no masks.  The only shows in Stardust were Comedy and Bar musicians.  None of the Bigger shows at all, they all got cancelled and never could find out why.

[Firepath]

On 5/20/2022 at 8:05 AM, mking8288 said:

Good, we feel the improvement each morning, slept well again overnight - good appetite, she wants to go to Taste for breakfast 😁😁😁😁😁  Too late, I said - how about The Local for that loaded hot breakfast, juice, coffee & plate of fresh fruit.   We aren't entirely symptoms-free yet, did another BinaxNow yesterday, 2 lines - didn't take more than 10 minutes to begin showing up on the slide, not going anywhere until next week at the earliest & not without the KN95 stepping outside to take out garbage or package deliveries.  BIL has thus far, managed to isolate & keep the other 2 ladies safe from possible secondary exposure, now that they've been home for 5+ days. 

 

As of this moment, we are on track, on course - and revising or cancelling plans to cruise this Fall, within 125 days already / past final payment-cancel without penalty ... not much happening with the Roll Call, yet. 

 

> > >    This is an edited 'transcript" - verbatium from that week of ours' social media club this morning (personal data, deleted) - a partial, non-verified snapshot of what was going on/happening post-cruise ... it's not good, fueling community spread quietly and under the radar.  On the plus side, everyone has been (should) immunized and most boosted (hopefully) - 

 

H 
Started feeling ill on Monday. Took a test, it was negative. Took another test today, positive.
Reply16h
L
Author
H I took a test Sunday and Monday both were positive my husband took them on Sunday negative Monday positive. I did get the new medicine out so today I tested negative my husband wants to wait till he’s done his medicine
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C 
L what is the new medicine out ???
Reply16h
H
C she might be talking about Paxlovid?
Reply16h
L
Author
H yes that’s it
Reply15h
D
Husband has bad cold now but tested negative
Reply16h
I’m fine and I’m on the oasis for the next 2 weeks.
Reply16h
J
Came home very sick and feels like Covid but still testing negative.
Reply16h
L
Pretty sure I have a cold didn't test tho
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L
Tested, negative, must be an old school cold.
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A
Yes family positive.
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Oh no! I hope everyone is feeling alright. M and I are fine.
Reply16h
M
We are on the joy now and there are plenty of people coughing and hacking up a lung (not covering their mouths either) ::sigh::
Reply15h
M that’s cause some people just don’t have any manners. When I was on the gem a guy next to me was coughing and not covering his mouth. So I said can u cover ur mouth when you cough. He told my why I don’t have covid. So my response well … See more
Reply15h
M
K makes me hate people lol
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+2
M ... tell me about it
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F
Took a test Tuesday and results came today NEGATIVE 😁
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S
Hi guys
Wow!! NO
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N
I do know for a fact they had at least 10 rooms on the 5th floor in quarantine food being delivered with masks and face shields in containers and when they were finished they left a big bag in front of door . By sat all doors were open and being cleane… See more
Reply13h
M
I felt sick on Sunday when I came home and was positive my mother in law tested posited on Tuesday. My husband and father in law still negative
Reply11h
J
Yes, my husband tested positive and got sick on Friday. I have mild pneumonia.
Reply10hEdited

 

Doctor at Urgent Care told me you have to have symptoms at least a full day before you’ll test positive. I was vaccinated and twice boosted and got it. My husband did not. The PaxLovid worked fast and was a lifesaver (literally).

[ysolde]

On 5/31/2022 at 2:32 PM, CrazyTrain2 said:

I think people are being exposed from day 1.  With 3000+ on board (passengers and crew) - false negatives, exposed but not yet showing positive on a test, interactions leading up to the ship - the ship leaves port carrying many that will be spreading virus from the crew's "Welcome Aboard".  From that point forward, everyone is essentially passing close contacts - bars, clubs, dining, limbo contests on the Lido deck, you name it.  It takes 3-6 days post exposure for symptoms to appear and even then the symptoms can easily be mistaken for something less serious while passengers continue with their onboard activities.  Of course the Cruise safe guidelines make it less desirable to self report - nobody wants to quarantine on their vacation even if it is the right thing to do.  So passengers are going to hold out rather than report on the first sniffle - human nature.

 

As far as later this year, I think this wave will be over in 5-7 weeks.  We are all going to get exposed to BA2.121 or a close subvariant over the next few months - cruising or not.  I'm sailing in late October and plan on boosting in late September.  My ideal situation is Moderna or Pfizer will have approval on the Omicron variant booster by then.  If not, then sign me up for the kissing booth at an early Octoberfest.

Thank you so much for this post.  We are supposed to cruise on Escape on November 1.  It starts as a Med cruise, then becomes a TA.  DH is becoming nervous about this, and is wondering whether we should call it off.  I am on the fence: We are vaccinated and boosted (and another booster will be required before we board).  I also suspect (though there is no way of knowing for sure) that a cruise this late in the season and this long will likely be slightly less crowded than cruises are right now, since people tend not to want to cross the North Atlantic that late in the season.  DH and I have done it, and agree that it can be rough, but we seem to have saltwater in our veins -- it did not affect us at all, even when so many others, both passengers and crew, felt sick.  But even with fewer people on board, a late season ocean crossing means more time spent indoors, and greater chance of infectious airborne disease spreading. 

 

So I hopefully, the current wave will be over by the time we cruise, and the next wave will not have had a chance to take hold.  We'll see.

[CrazyTrain2]

1 hour ago, ysolde said:

Thank you so much for this post.  We are supposed to cruise on Escape on November 1.  It starts as a Med cruise, then becomes a TA.  DH is becoming nervous about this, and is wondering whether we should call it off.  I am on the fence: We are vaccinated and boosted (and another booster will be required before we board).  I also suspect (though there is no way of knowing for sure) that a cruise this late in the season and this long will likely be slightly less crowded than cruises are right now, since people tend not to want to cross the North Atlantic that late in the season.  DH and I have done it, and agree that it can be rough, but we seem to have saltwater in our veins -- it did not affect us at all, even when so many others, both passengers and crew, felt sick.  But even with fewer people on board, a late season ocean crossing means more time spent indoors, and greater chance of infectious airborne disease spreading. 

 

So I hopefully, the current wave will be over by the time we cruise, and the next wave will not have had a chance to take hold.  We'll see.

This wave should be over in 8 weeks or so, unless BA4/BA5 (newer wave) virus can get past BA.2.XXX antibodies.  I'm watching for re-infection rates for people that got BA.2 in the April/May timeframe.  in some ways, the next few weeks will provide a level of heard immunity for Omicron going into the fall that should tamp down cases on board for my cruise in late October.  My kiddo sent me a picture of her throat - Yep, looks pretty much like Covid but still testing negative. 

 

Anybody want to bet me its Covid and she is contagious?  I didn't think so.

 

I modified my FOIA request into the CDC for the actual numbers on board the ships to just Carnival and Norwegian.  We'll see how long it takes to process.  People deserve the actual onboard positivity numbers so they can make informed decisions about whether to travel or not.  If somebody want to submit for other carriers I'd be happy to combine and publish the data and analysis.

 

Boosters based on Alpha variant have limited effect on Omicron symptomatic cases.  Moderna and Pfizer will have a multivariant booster out in the "Fall" if the CDC and FDA can start acting like it matters.  What the Fall means I have no idea.

 

 

[ontheweb]

12 hours ago, CrazyTrain2 said:

This wave should be over in 8 weeks or so, unless BA4/BA5 (newer wave) virus can get past BA.2.XXX antibodies.  I'm watching for re-infection rates for people that got BA.2 in the April/May timeframe.  in some ways, the next few weeks will provide a level of heard immunity for Omicron going into the fall that should tamp down cases on board for my cruise in late October.  My kiddo sent me a picture of her throat - Yep, looks pretty much like Covid but still testing negative. 

 

Anybody want to bet me its Covid and she is contagious?  I didn't think so.

 

I modified my FOIA request into the CDC for the actual numbers on board the ships to just Carnival and Norwegian.  We'll see how long it takes to process.  People deserve the actual onboard positivity numbers so they can make informed decisions about whether to travel or not.  If somebody want to submit for other carriers I'd be happy to combine and publish the data and analysis.

 

Boosters based on Alpha variant have limited effect on Omicron symptomatic cases.  Moderna and Pfizer will have a multivariant booster out in the "Fall" if the CDC and FDA can start acting like it matters.  What the Fall means I have no idea.

 

 

How long has it been now since you made that FOIL request?

[Karaboudjan]

12 hours ago, CrazyTrain2 said:

I modified my FOIA request into the CDC for the actual numbers on board the ships to just Carnival and Norwegian.  We'll see how long it takes to process.  People deserve the actual onboard positivity numbers so they can make informed decisions about whether to travel or not.  If somebody want to submit for other carriers I'd be happy to combine and publish the data and analysis.

 

 

 

I am as interested as anyone in real numbers, but how does this inform someone's decision about a future cruise?  COVID clearly comes in waves, so knowing that there were XXX cases in May doesn't tell me much about what I can expect in December.

 

I suppose you could try to correlate anecdotal evidence to actual numbers and then apply that to what is being reported at the time of your cruise, but that seems like a shaky proposition.

[BklynBorn47]

38 minutes ago, Karaboudjan said:

 

I am as interested as anyone in real numbers, but how does this inform someone's decision about a future cruise?  COVID clearly comes in waves, so knowing that there were XXX cases in May doesn't tell me much about what I can expect in December.

 

I suppose you could try to correlate anecdotal evidence to actual numbers and then apply that to what is being reported at the time of your cruise, but that seems like a shaky proposition.

As someone just back from 42 days of cruises which included a 7 day Covid quarantine, here's my view.  Unless a new deadly variant appears, we are continuing to cruise.  Next up B2B2B again Sept-Oct.  Vaxed and boosted we are unlikely to become seriously ill.
We are retired so spending 7 days watching the scenery of the Mediterranean while ordering from the menu (quick delivery) with free internet and movies wasn't so bad.  After testing negative, we continued our trip.  Of course, while not asymptomic, I never felt really bad, never had a fever and the decongestants they gave me worked great.
Others in different life situations will feel differently.

 

That said, in retrospect I do still have unkind thoughts toward "constantly coughing guy" with whom I shared a 6 hour excursion (several hour long bus rides).  He made no attempt to cover his cough, mask up or distance himself from others.  In one museum he was right behind me breathing on my neck.  3 days later I was positive.

As for him, we heard that he beat the daily temperature check by taking Tylenol in the morning AND HE didn't need a test since he was flying directly to a country that no longer required a test or any kind of quarantine,  Yep, he beat the system all right.

 

Of course, there are people like that everywhere, even right in my hometown.  So, unless some new deadly variant arises, we will keep cruising, but I will reevaluate my excursion plans and stay away from the buffet.

 

Edit: Forgot to mention that we are not charged for the days in quarantine, so there was no financial impact.

Edited June 8, 2022 by BklynBorn47

[CleverUserNameHere]

8 minutes ago, BklynBorn47 said:

That said, in retrospect I do still have unkind thoughts toward "constantly coughing guy" with whom I shared a 6 hour excursion (several hour long bus rides).  He made no attempt to cover his cough, mask up or distance himself from others.  In one museum he was right behind me breathing on my neck.  3 days later I was positive.

As for him, we heard that he beat the daily temperature check by taking Tylenol in the morning AND HE didn't need a test since he was flying directly to a country that no longer required a test or any kind of quarantine,  Yep, he beat the system all right.

 

 

UGH that sucks, I am so sorry that happened to you. As a nurse (former COVID med/surge) I get that the new variants are not as severe and we are on the downswing of this pandemic, but that is just inconsiderate considering how the COVID policies have remained unchanged as of now. At worst, he could have gotten you seriously ill, but at best (which is still worst) he ruined half of your vacation

[latserrof]

I know that guy!  And he's one of the reasons we are not cruising currently.

[CrazyTrain2]

2 hours ago, ontheweb said:

How long has it been now since you made that FOIL request?

I have been going back and forth with the CDC to try and limit the data call.  I asked for everything for all ships since 1/1/22 and they wanted $150 to process that.  My charity only goes so far so I skinnied it down to Norwegian and Carnival.  I just sent the smaller request yesterday.

[ontheweb]

3 minutes ago, CrazyTrain2 said:

I have been going back and forth with the CDC to try and limit the data call.  I asked for everything for all ships since 1/1/22 and they wanted $150 to process that.  My charity only goes so far so I skinnied it down to Norwegian and Carnival.  I just sent the smaller request yesterday.

I was wondering it there was a charge. I suppose they justify it as a charge for copying the data.

 

Thanks for your quick reply.

[CrazyTrain2]

2 hours ago, Karaboudjan said:

 

I am as interested as anyone in real numbers, but how does this inform someone's decision about a future cruise?  COVID clearly comes in waves, so knowing that there were XXX cases in May doesn't tell me much about what I can expect in December.

 

I suppose you could try to correlate anecdotal evidence to actual numbers and then apply that to what is being reported at the time of your cruise, but that seems like a shaky proposition.

I totally understand.  I am trying to correlate local (Embarkation port) positivity rates to shipboard positivity rates.  It's certainly not perfect but it was the best I could come up with.  I also do not like how the CDC did their color scales.  When the entire fleet in in ORANGE and NONE are are reporting systemic spread prompting a RED status I find it very disingenuous.  People have a right to know what the actual number are, even historical, to make more informed decisions - about travel health risk and travel interruption.

 

 

 

 

[CrazyTrain2]

3 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

I was wondering it there was a charge. I suppose they justify it as a charge for copying the data.

 

Thanks for your quick reply.

As a citizen requester you get a certain number of FREE hours of analyst time and pages.  Personally, I could run the more generalized broader query in about 20 minutes if I stopped to get some coffee and output it to about 10 pages.  But CDC data analysts run at their own pace and of course there is an approval chain before public release.

 

If you gave me the Medicare billing database, I could find 80% of the fraud in about 2 weeks.  Link me up with the OIG and the FBI - we'd have a lot of perp walks.  The old adage is "Follow the Money", I "Follow the Data"