Will Cruising Ever Recover

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, ldtr said:

 That is with the fact that ships are still blocking 10 to 15% of the cabins for quarantine space for new crew and active cases.  

 

I don't believe this is accurate.

 

Arnold Donald actually stated in the 2Q22 that there was no longer any occupancy restrictions and that he is hoping for 110% occupancy.

 

"Carnival Corporation CEO Arnold Donald recently stated on the cruise giant’s second quarter and business update call that Carnival Cruise Line is expected to operate at “110 percent occupancy” for the summer season."  

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-plc-provides-second-quarter-2022-business

 

 

Please provide a reference that indicates the 'Fact" that ships are still blocking 10-15% of the cabins for quarantine space. 

 

 

 

[Guest ldtr]

24 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I don't believe this is accurate.

 

Arnold Donald actually stated in the 2Q22 that there was no longer any occupancy restrictions and that he is hoping for 110% occupancy.

 

"Carnival Corporation CEO Arnold Donald recently stated on the cruise giant’s second quarter and business update call that Carnival Cruise Line is expected to operate at “110 percent occupancy” for the summer season."  

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-plc-provides-second-quarter-2022-business

 

 

Please provide a reference that indicates the 'Fact" that ships are still blocking 10-15% of the cabins for quarantine space. 

 

 

 

In the past 2 months have been on 3 ships.  2 different lines  owned by CCL lines.  Got off of one, a Princess whip last week. All three have as half of one deck blocked off for quarantine.  For example the Princess Ruby had the Port half of Aloha deck, blocked off for quarantine.  That would amount to 10-15% of those ships carrying capacity.  Just took an indepth look at some of the ships and the number of decks a more accurate number would be 8.3% to 12.6%.

 

Also if you do a search on posts about HAL there are several that talk about HAL using deck 6 Forward. Not unlike Princess Royal class ships using Dolphin Deck forward. Princess Grand class uses Aloha Deck Port side.

 

Also keep in mind that by comment about the 10-15% was backward looking and applying to the quarter in which they reached 69% occupancy. Pretty clear that the quarantine areas were in effect for most if not all of that quarter. Cannot say what they will be for this upcoming quarter.

 

His 110% comment was aimed towards Carnival cruise line itself.  not all of the lines owned by CCL in its entirety. Cannot say if Carnival cruise line is blocking quarantine cabins, since I have not been on any of their ships.

 

Also keep in mind that his comment about occupancy restrictions would have included that the cruise lines were now longer restricting sales of available cabins, as they did in previous quarters when they were limiting occupancy above and beyond the cabins reserved for quarantine.  Started at about 50% of capacity, was limited to 70% as late as the fall.  Those restrictions limiting sale of available cabins have been removed.  However the quarantine cabins are not available, since they are blocked for operational reasons.

Edited July 16, 2022 by ldtr

[sfaaa]

High fuel price, supply chain issues, Covid, labor shortage, heavy debt load and expensive airfares are killing the cruise industry. It will take a long time before cruise lines recover from the current sad state of affairs.

[Sir PMP]

2 hours ago, ldtr said:

Actually occupancy rates are considerably above 50% and moving higher.  CCL reported last quarter 69% across all lines and rates are higher for this quarter.  That is with the fact that ships are still blocking 10 to 15% of the cabins for quarantine space for new crew and active cases.  Carnival itself with its younger demographics is running near 100%.  Ships with older demographics lagging a bit behind.  That would seem to indicate that the occupancy rates are more impacted by safety concerns with cruising than the current level of Covid restrictions.  Though some are certainly not traveling due to the testing requirements and the potential for quarantine if ill.

 

While testing and quarantine might go away as a cruise ship requirement, vaccination is probably here to stay for at least the next few years.

Is that why their stocks are almost worthless and they are losing billions?

[Guest ldtr]

7 minutes ago, Sir PMP said:

Is that why their stocks are almost worthless and they are losing billions?

Even if they were back at the pre-Covid revenue numbers with the dilution and debt a fair market value would be about $12 per share for CCL.

 

At this point with the last quarter being only 69% occupancy and none of the big three getting close to break would expect it to be even lower.

 

If they can get back to fully occupancy at current pricing, they can survive, the question is if they can and how long   Below fully occupancy and the ships might be generate some cash but not enough to deal with debt.

 

Cruise lines have always been a low margin business, with most costs being fixed for a given ship and route.  As such the only way they make a profit is to have the ships close to 100% of 2 person occupancy.  The 10 years prior to Covid was kind of a golden age for cruise ships with pretty low interest rates, generally reasonable fuel prices, and labor availability.  Their max profit margin during those best of times tended to be in the teens.  Outside of that period singe digit margins were more normal.

Edited July 16, 2022 by ldtr

[SumoCitrus]

3 hours ago, Florida_gal_50 said:

Thank you for supplying accurate information.  

 

I encourage you to read page 52 of the CCL annual report (link below) if you truly appreciate accurate information.

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/fe45aec4-02e8-4aaa-9ff2-308ec21a488b

 

 

[Guest ldtr]

27 minutes ago, SumoCitrus said:

 

I encourage you to read page 52 of the CCL annual report (link below) if you truly appreciate accurate information.

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/fe45aec4-02e8-4aaa-9ff2-308ec21a488b

 

 

I would expect that the most recent 10Q filed with the SEC on Jun 29, 2022  to be a tad bit more accurate than an annual report from 2021.  Since we are talking about current events, not an annual number which covers all of 2021 including period prior to restart.

 

Last 10Q available here occupancy data us in page 25.

 

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509722000054/ccl-20220531.htm

Edited July 16, 2022 by ldtr

[foodsvcmgr]

They can and will recover once testing and quarantine are eliminated.

I think the wide divergence of opinions here, not dissimilar to the smoking debate,

may open the possibility of different cruise lines opting to pursue different Covid policies. In essence, something for everyone.

I will wait to sail until restrictions are gone, at least on some cruise line somewhere in the world, whereas cowmilker wants a highly regulated mask wearing environment.

Why can’t both of us have options that suit our comfort levels, if not immediately but in the reasonable future?

 

[aliaschief]

When you read the division amongst folks, one has to contemplate,  not whether cruising will survive but whether society itself will survive? With all our self divisions, fears, anger, selfishness, ignorance and naiveness, righteousness and reluctance, self declared scientist and then need for compliance forever I wonder what path we are headed down???

 

That said, we are are back to cruising again next month with extensive travel beforehand. We are not getting younger and locking down in our home out of fear of Covid exposure surely does not compare to never experiencing the joy of travel. We have already had a quarantine onboard due to testing positive so we are willing and feel covered enough with vaccine and all boosters to venture again. Being in quarantine was not a pleasant experience but not ever cruising again in our thoughts is not a favorable option or alternative.

 

We all have the option of personal choice and decisions. Our decision is to continue travels while trying to be cautious, pro prevention, pro hygiene and even at certain rare times masking if necessary. Masking is definitely not a favorite preventive measure but as two of us with a medical background we understand there are times that it may be in our best interest and those we come in contact with.

 

Just my opinions and thoughts; just like others have stated theirs. So don’t be offended if their not your stances, opinions and of course facts.

My first and last post on this subject.

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by aliaschief

[Florida_gal_50]

1 hour ago, foodsvcmgr said:

They can and will recover once testing and quarantine are eliminated.

I think the wide divergence of opinions here, not dissimilar to the smoking debate,

may open the possibility of different cruise lines opting to pursue different Covid policies. In essence, something for everyone.

I will wait to sail until restrictions are gone, at least on some cruise line somewhere in the world, whereas cowmilker wants a highly regulated mask wearing environment.

Why can’t both of us have options that suit our comfort levels, if not immediately but in the reasonable future?

 

When someone says they are going to pretend to eat so they don’t have to wear a mask that’s a bit much.   It shows little respect for the crew and how hard they work.  They need their jobs.  It unfortunate that selfishness is more important than respect for others.  All too common.

[BermudaBound2014]

8 hours ago, ldtr said:

In the past 2 months have been on 3 ships.  2 different lines  owned by CCL lines.  Got off of one, a Princess whip last week. All three have as half of one deck blocked off for quarantine.  For example the Princess Ruby had the Port half of Aloha deck, blocked off for quarantine.  That would amount to 10-15% of those ships carrying capacity.  Just took an indepth look at some of the ships and the number of decks a more accurate number would be 8.3% to 12.6%.

 

Also if you do a search on posts about HAL there are several that talk about HAL using deck 6 Forward. Not unlike Princess Royal class ships using Dolphin Deck forward. Princess Grand class uses Aloha Deck Port side.

 

Also keep in mind that by comment about the 10-15% was backward looking and applying to the quarter in which they reached 69% occupancy. Pretty clear that the quarantine areas were in effect for most if not all of that quarter. Cannot say what they will be for this upcoming quarter.

 

His 110% comment was aimed towards Carnival cruise line itself.  not all of the lines owned by CCL in its entirety. Cannot say if Carnival cruise line is blocking quarantine cabins, since I have not been on any of their ships.

 

Also keep in mind that his comment about occupancy restrictions would have included that the cruise lines were now longer restricting sales of available cabins, as they did in previous quarters when they were limiting occupancy above and beyond the cabins reserved for quarantine.  Started at about 50% of capacity, was limited to 70% as late as the fall.  Those restrictions limiting sale of available cabins have been removed.  However the quarantine cabins are not available, since they are blocked for operational reasons.

 

Still waiting for a link. 

 

The facts are found in the Quarterly Releases filed with the Securities Exchange Committee where Arnold Donald (maybe it was Frank Del Rio) explained the self imposed limits at start up agreed upon between the CDC and cruise lines. It was 50% for the first 2 sailings, then 80% for the next two, working to 100% within 60 days.

 

Ships may still have entire floors reserved for covid but that's because they can't sell those cabins. All three CEO's are on record saying they want occupancy above 100%. If they could sell the cabin, they would. This isn't rocket science. 

[kazu]

6 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Ships may still have entire floors reserved for covid but that's because they can't sell those cabins. All three CEO's are on record saying they want occupancy above 100%. If they could sell the cabin, they would. This isn't rocket science. 

 

Well, perhaps it is rocket science 😉  Every CEO in hospitality wants 100%+ occupancy - that’s nothing new 😉 

 

I am baffled by your post stating if they could sell, the cabin they would.  There are lots of sold out cruises.  I have to go to “Sold Out” often now to do the Bon Voyage threads - and yet, there are still cabins reserved for quarantine.  

 

It would certainly appear they could have sold those cabins but didn’t. If they feel they still need to quarantine people then they need cabins to do it and cannot sell them.

[Mary229]

The cruise lines are voluntarily sailing under the CDC’s CSO and I do believe that requires some quarantine cabins.  On the ships I have been on I have been told those have been largely occupied by crew.  The CSO requires the crew to be tested periodically regardless of their apparent good health. There have been changes to the CSO including length of quarantine and my observations have led me to believe there must have also been a reduction in the number of cabins set aside.   I have witnessed dinner trays being delivered to those areas of the ship.  

[BermudaBound2014]

4 hours ago, kazu said:

 

Well, perhaps it is rocket science 😉  Every CEO in hospitality wants 100%+ occupancy - that’s nothing new 😉 

 

I am baffled by your post stating if they could sell, the cabin they would.  There are lots of sold out cruises.  I have to go to “Sold Out” often now to do the Bon Voyage threads - and yet, there are still cabins reserved for quarantine.  

 

It would certainly appear they could have sold those cabins but didn’t. If they feel they still need to quarantine people then they need cabins to do it and cannot sell them.

If you are agreeing that ships have “10-15%” of cabins reserved for quarantine I will need to see a reference because there is nothing in reports filed with the SEC that collaborates this hyperbole.

 

A few cabins reserved, sure. Entire floors (10-15%) behind held in the event of a mass need for quarantine? Nope, not buying that.

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[kazu]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

If you are agreeing that ships have “Entire floors” of cabins reserved for quarantine I will need to see a reference because there is nothing in reports filed with the SEC that collaborates this hyperbole..

 

A few cabins reserved, sure. Entire floors behind held in the event of a mass need for quarantine? Nope, not buying that.

 

 

Talk about misconstruing a post 😳 

 

I said NOTHING about entire floors.  I guess I should have deleted that from your quote.  there are certainly good sections of cabins reserved for quarantine currently - the cabins have been identified in numerous posts here by people who have been or are on board - and there are a fair number of them.

 

My point was right now the ships are still reserving cabins for quarantine and cannot sell them period - in disagreement with your statement that if the ships could sell them they would.  Until the ships feel that the quarantine cabins are not needed - they cannot and will not sell those cabins.

[mcrcruiser]

 A major problem which has not been addressed here are the airlines who are delaying & cancelling many flights . How does this impact the cruise industry presently ?

[BermudaBound2014]

49 minutes ago, kazu said:

 

Talk about misconstruing a post 😳 

 

I said NOTHING about entire floors.  I guess I should have deleted that from your quote.  there are certainly good sections of cabins reserved for quarantine currently - the cabins have been identified in numerous posts here by people who have been or are on board - and there are a fair number of them.

 

My point was right now the ships are still reserving cabins for quarantine and cannot sell them period - in disagreement with your statement that if the ships could sell them they would.  Until the ships feel that the quarantine cabins are not needed - they cannot and will not sell those cabins.

 

Yes, appears there is much confusion. I asked for a reference from @idtr who made the claim that ships were still blocking 10-15% of the cabins for quarantine space. You responded to me without that contextual background. 

 

Regardless, let's discuss. Do you have a reference that ships are still retaining cabins for quarantine and if so, how many? I know this is wildly speculated here on the forums, but the CEO's are not confirming this policy in the Quarterly releases. In fact, they are stating the opposite. They are on record stating that their ships are prepared for 110% occupancy (where are the quarantine cabins in that scenario?) . I see no where in the CDC guidelines that establish a number of quarantine cabins, I believe that number is arbitrarily set based on the number of passengers who have booked. Let us not forget that the CDC guidelines recommend all quarantines be in balcony cabins and we all know that isn't happening either.

 

I don't disagree that there are blocks of cabins available for quarantine as reported here. What I suggest is that this block is due to lack of occupancy demand. If the ship is only selling at 69% occupancy (which is documented with the SEC), then it makes sense block off a section on the ship for possible quarantines.  There maybe incentive to keep positive cases 'out of public eye', it maybe easier on staff to handle the 'hazardous waste",  but there are no actual restrictions that I am aware of. And while this has not been the policy (due to lack of demand), there is nothing in the voluntary CDC guidelines that prevents guests from being quarantined in their very own stateroom. I suspect that ships sailing with 110% occupancy plan to do just that.

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[kazu]

30 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I don't disagree that there are blocks of cabins available for quarantine as reported here. What I suggest is that this block is due to lack of occupancy demand.

 

And on that we can agree to disagree.  I follow the LIVE threads of people on board and I can tell you that several sailings are sold out that people are reporting from and there were quarantine cabins.

 

Traditionally, from reports of people on board - these cabins are located from the mid elevator to the aft elevator on deck 4  ( I think I got that right 😉) and some have reported that they were also allocated on deck 5 in the same location.

 

IMO (and JMO), I believe that if HAL implements the booster requirement as they are doing on the 3 trial cruises, the quarantine cabins could be eliminated.  Most people fully vaccinated (meaning at least 1 booster) have no serious illness and mild symptoms.  Risk would be nominal - but that’s JMO.  After all, people weren’t quarantined to a different cabin for Noro - just confined to their own cabins for a day or 2.

[Mary229]

35 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

don't disagree that there are blocks of cabins available for quarantine as reported here

See my report above.  Since I always do a little last minute bargaining I am usually close to those blocks.  I assure you I have seen food carts entering the blocked area for every meal.  I have been told it is mainly crew and judging by the carts all cabins beyond the door are not full.  The CSO does require reserved cabins. 
 

added.  My last cruise was on the Zaandam with a capacity of about 1450 and was told there were slightly over 1200 passengers.  I have to say it seemed many of them were on casino promotion 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Mary229

[BermudaBound2014]

Just now, Mary229 said:

 The CSO does require reserved cabins. 

 

I don't believe this is accurate. The CSO 'recommends' the following. Notice that no where in this does it say that blocks of cabins should be reserved. The cruise ships are volunteering to block cabins because they have cabins available to block due to low occupancy demand. Please provide me with the documentation that shows the CSO is "requiring reserved cabins" (not trying to be argumentative, but I would like to fully understand). 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/maritime/recommendations-for-ships.html#isolation-quarantine

[BermudaBound2014]

12 minutes ago, kazu said:

 

And on that we can agree to disagree.  I follow the LIVE threads of people on board and I can tell you that several sailings are sold out that people are reporting from and there were quarantine cabins.

 

Traditionally, from reports of people on board - these cabins are located from the mid elevator to the aft elevator on deck 4  ( I think I got that right 😉) and some have reported that they were also allocated on deck 5 in the same location.

 

IMO (and JMO), I believe that if HAL implements the booster requirement as they are doing on the 3 trial cruises, the quarantine cabins could be eliminated.  Most people fully vaccinated (meaning at least 1 booster) have no serious illness and mild symptoms.  Risk would be nominal - but that’s JMO.  After all, people weren’t quarantined to a different cabin for Noro - just confined to their own cabins for a day or 2.

 

I am aware where the blocks of cabins are located across several cruise lines. What we disagree on is why this block of cabin exists. Unless I'm misunderstanding, you are of the belief that is is a requirement of the CDC/CSO and the cruise ships refuse to sell these cabins. I am of the belief that if the cruise ships could sell these cabins they would. The actual documents filed with the United States Securities Exchange Commission do not support your position, which is why I keep asking you for an actual reference over antidotal observation (not trying to be argumentative, if a reference exists that cruise ships are blocking X amount of cabins for quarantine, I am more than willing to change my position)

 

So Yes, until you can supply a reference, we shall agree to disagree and hopefully we can do that with civility and kindness 🙂 

[Mary229]

8 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I don't believe this is accurate. The CSO 'recommends' the following. Notice that no where in this does it say that blocks of cabins should be reserved. The cruise ships are volunteering to block cabins because they have cabins available to block due to low occupancy demand. Please provide me with the documentation that shows the CSO is "requiring reserved cabins" (not trying to be argumentative, but I would like to fully understand). 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/maritime/recommendations-for-ships.html#isolation-quarantine

I did not say blocks of cabins, I said cabins to be reserved.  

[BermudaBound2014]

18 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

  The CSO does require reserved cabins. 

 

Can you please provide me with a reference that demonstrates that the CSO is requiring reserved cabins? I believe these are recommendations only and no where in the recommendations does it mention reserving cabins. 

[seaoma]

Just now, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Can you please provide me with a reference that demonstrates that the CSO is requiring reserved cabins? I believe these are recommendations only and no where in the recommendations does it mention reserving cabins. 

From my reading, it appears it is part of the requirements.

 

You can find it here: CDC   -   Cruise Ship Guidance   -   Technical Instructions for CDC's Covid-19 Program for Cruise Ships.

 

This document provides instructions for cruise lines operating foreign-flagged cruise ships^[1] in U.S. waters that have chosen to opt in to CDC’s COVID-19 Program for Cruise Ships.

 

Isolation of Symptomatic Travelers (Crew and Passengers) and Confirmed Cases and Quarantine of Close Contacts

Travelers with COVID-19-like illness (CLI) must be isolated using the same procedures as a traveler with confirmed COVID-19. If the symptomatic traveler has a negative SARS-CoV-2 test result, then isolation may be discontinued if a repeat NAAT result—collected at least 24 hours from the initial COVID-19 test—is negative. If an alternate infectious etiology is identified (through either laboratory testing or clinical diagnosis), routine infection control precautions (e.g., isolation) recommended for the diagnosis should be followed. For example, if symptomatic person has only vomiting and diarrhea and tests negative for COVID-19 twice, then acute gastroenteritis (AGE) protocols should be followed.

See the section Onboard COVID-19 Testing for Symptomatic Travelers (Crew and Passengers) and Close Contacts above for details about quarantine based on vaccination status.

• Isolate or quarantine travelers in single-occupancy cabins, with private bathrooms, with the door closed.
• Ensure predetermined isolation and quarantine cabins are in separate areas from other cabins.
  • If a traveler identified as a case or a close contact is disembarking the ship within 36 hours, the cruise ship operator may allow the traveler to stay in the original cabin if the traveler will be the only person in that cabin.
• Selection of cabins for isolation or quarantine should consider the following:
  • Proximity to the medical facility and gangways for ease of patient transport
  • Location in dead-end corridors or low-traffic areas to minimize potential exposures
  • Spacing between other occupied cabins to reduce transmission risk
  • Absence of interconnecting doors to reduce accidental exposures
  • Positioning within view of security cameras for enforcement of isolation or quarantine
  • Presence of balconies for psychological morale
• Isolated or quarantined travelers (except if the traveler is a child or other dependent person who needs a caregiver) must have no direct contact with other travelers except for designated medical staff.
• Designated medical staff or other personnel must wear proper personal protective equipment (PPE) per CDC guidance when in proximity to isolated or quarantined travelers.
• Meals must be delivered to individual cabins with no face-to-face interaction during this service.
• Cabins housing isolated or quarantined travelers should not be cleaned by crew members. Supplies such as paper towels, cleaners, and disinfectants, and extra linens can be provided to isolated or quarantined persons so they can clean their cabin by themselves as necessary.
• Food waste and other trash should be collected and bagged by the isolated or quarantined traveler and placed outside the cabin during designated times for transport to the waste management center for incineration or offloading.
• Soiled linens and towels should be bagged in water-soluble bags by the isolated or quarantined traveler and placed outside the cabin during designated times for transport to the laundry room.
• Consider use of surveillance cameras or security personnel to ensure compliance with isolation or quarantine protocols wherever possible.

[Mary229]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Can you please provide me with a reference that demonstrates that the CSO is requiring reserved cabins? I believe these are recommendations only and no where in the recommendations does it mention reserving cabins. 

I will have to do that research this is based on memory.  The lines have chosen the blocks of cabin method which is not as massive as it sounds at least on my cruises.   My first transatlantic was about 55% full which is actually not that unusual for a transatlantic according to this forum.  Once it became a Mediterranean cruise it was more full.  My Canadian cruise this month was surprisingly full.  
 

I think their capacity issues are more related to staffing issues than to Covid policies.