What does RCCL stock price drop mean.

[weregoingcruising]

Lower fares in our future?

[grandgeezer]

The stock price drop tells you the professional institutions, who do this to make money, doesn’t see the cruising industry rebounding anytime soon, if ever. If you remember, the stock price was much higher when there were no ships sailing than now, when all of Celebrity’s ships are sailing with no Covid restrictions. The $25,000,000,000 of debt doesn’t help.

[Georgia_Peaches]

Now’s a good time to buy if you’re looking to get in while it’s “cheap”. Be prepared for a roller coaster ride tho. 

[Orator]

Most stocks have taken a tumble. More to do with interest rates rising ,inflation and fear of recession.There are many bargains as I believe that the market has been oversold. 

Edited October 10, 2022 by Orator

[grandgeezer]

22 minutes ago, Orator said:

Most stocks have taken a tumble. More to do with interest rates rising ,inflation and fear of recession.There are many bargains as I believe that the market has been oversold. 

Agreed, most stocks have taken a tumble, but the cruise line industry, as a whole, have tumbled further than what the S&P Index has, and recovered the least. I think this index is a better picture of the stock market as it is based on 500 stocks vs 30 in the Dow.

 

RCL.           -8.2% the last month.    -53.7% the last year.    -67.05% the last five years

S&P 500.   - 7.8% the last month.   -17.7% the last year.    +41.25% the last five years

 

The sad part is that RCL is the best performing one of the three major lines.

This is accurate as of 9:45 am mst. and will change as the market moves.

The five year number for the S&P 500 is a positive number not a typo.

 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

36 minutes ago, Orator said:

Most stocks have taken a tumble. More to do with interest rates rising ,inflation and fear of recession.There are many bargains as I believe that the market has been oversold. 

 

Yes, most stocks have taken a tumble. The Dow Jones is represented by the yellow line and down 15% over the last year.

 

However; I'm unaware of any industry that has take a tumble to extreme that the cruises have in the last year. CCL is down 71%. RCL is down 50% and NCLH is down 56%.  This is more than just interest rates and fear of recession. The cruise lines stocks are down because of the tremendous debt they have incurred (which continues to mount each and every day). 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Agreed, most stocks have taken a tumble, but the cruise line industry, as a whole, have tumbled further than what the S&P Index has, and recovered the least. I think this index is a better picture of the stock market as it is based on 500 stocks vs 30 in the Dow.

 

RCL.           -8.2% the last month.    -53.7% the last year.    -67.05% the last five years

S&P 500.   - 7.8% the last month.   -17.7% the last year.    +41.25% the last five years

 

The sad part is that RCL is the best performing one of the three major lines.

This is accurate as of 9:45 am mst. and will change as the market moves.

The five year number for the S&P 500 is a positive number not a typo.

 

 

 

 

GMTA. I was posting at the same time as you :). 

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Agreed, most stocks have taken a tumble, but the cruise line industry, as a whole, have tumbled further than what the S&P Index has, and recovered the least. I think this index is a better picture of the stock market as it is based on 500 stocks vs 30 in the Dow.

 

RCL.           -8.2% the last month.    -53.7% the last year.    -67.05% the last five years

S&P 500.   - 7.8% the last month.   -17.7% the last year.    +41.25% the last five years

 

The sad part is that RCL is the best performing one of the three major lines.

This is accurate as of 9:45 am mst. and will change as the market moves.

The five year number for the S&P 500 is a positive number not a typo.

 

All a matter of what time frame you choose to use.  There's a great deal of volatility at the moment.  For example, here's how the three major lines have fared in the last 3 months vs. S&P500.  Sucks to be Carnival, I guess...

 

Dark blue (on top) = RCL

Purple = NCL

Light blue = S&P

Pink = CCL

 

 

 

[mac66]

 I bought RCI and Carnival stock this summer when it was relatively cheap. I bought with the idea that I would recoup most of my money in OBC if I continued to book cruises.

 

Haven't really been on Carn in awhile but were looking at HAL and Princess cruises in the future. At the price I bought it it would take 8 cruises to break even.

 

Now both stock prices have gone down again.

 

The CEO of RCI recently said that they would have to raise prices to regain profitability but can't raise prices until they start filling their ships. In which case they have to lower prices to get people sailing again. 

 

So are cruise lines too big to fail like the auto industry? Will they get a govt bailout?  Only time will tell.

[Baron Barracuda]

The cruise lines have gotten back to roughly cash flow neutral so can cover the interest on all that accumulated debt but with little left over to pay down principal.  That means when due they'll have to roll over their borrowings at today's (and tomorrow's) higher interest rates.  Also, oil which is a large expense for them looks to have bottomed so fuel expense trend may go from a help to a hurt.

[Orator]

They are flagged in foreign countries. That’s why they didn’t get money before.

[mnocket]

3 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

The stock price drop tells you the professional institutions, who do this to make money, doesn’t see the cruising industry rebounding anytime soon, if ever. If you remember, the stock price was much higher when there were no ships sailing than now, when all of Celebrity’s ships are sailing with no Covid restrictions. The $25,000,000,000 of debt doesn’t help.

Actually of RCL, CCL & NCLH,  only CCL is trading below it's Covid low (the others are headed that way😕.  Your point is still valid.....  confidence in the cruise industry is about as bad as it was during Covid when no ships were sailing.  Their stocks are highly speculative now as some may very well go to zero - however, those that survive will eventually yield 2X, 3X, 4X sized returns from these prices.

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

All a matter of what time frame you choose to use.  There's a great deal of volatility at the moment.  For example, here's how the three major lines have fared in the last 3 months vs. S&P500.  Sucks to be Carnival, I guess...

 

Dark blue (on top) = RCL

Purple = NCL

Light blue = S&P

Pink = CCL

 

 

 

Those are the time lines that are readily available when I checked. If you want to massage the time lines to make the cruise lines look favorable, be my guest, and good luck with it. It has to be up to date not just the good years.

[AmCam]

You have to wonder about the effect of inflation on people's travel budgets, too, though I still feel that cruising is a good value overall.

[canderson]

22 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

If you want to massage the time lines to make the cruise lines look favorable, be my guest, and good luck with it. It has to be up to date not just the good years.

Massaging the time lines was my whole point.  This last quarter, RCL finally looked better than the overall market has for a bit, which is what I was emphasizing.  CCL, not so much.  I attribute the RCL price hanging in there to strong 2023 bookings at some fairly stiff prices.

[Virginia100]

Stock analysts say the debt burden is just too much and see these larger cruise lines going into bankruptcy. They will reorganize to some level but common stock holders will lose it all.

[starsqidt]

It means no one wants to invest in those companies, and it’s understandable. Cruise companies were hit hard by the pandemic, and gas prices are finishing them now. Inflation makes people think more about essential things rather than cruise traveling, which means such companies will not have many customers in the near future.

[XuGator]

6 hours ago, starsqidt said:

It means no one wants to invest in those companies, and it’s understandable. Cruise companies were hit hard by the pandemic, and gas prices are finishing them now. Inflation makes people think more about essential things rather than cruise traveling, which means such companies will not have many customers in the near future.

Clearly that is not the case since RCL stock is up over 25% in the past 30 days. Lots of people missed the mark on this thread 

Edited October 29, 2022 by XuGator

[NMTraveller]

Ahem...  They are overleveraged on debt.

 

Ahem...  Are they making a profit yet?

 

Just call me Captain Obvious.  

 

Again and again...

[XuGator]

Just now, NMTraveller said:

Ahem...  They are overleveraged on debt.

 

Ahem...  Are they making a profit yet?

 

Just call me Captain Obvious.  

 

Again and again...

Who cares ? Investors are making money on them and 25% in the past month is enormous. Sorry you missed the boat. No pun intended. 

[NMTraveller]

9 minutes ago, XuGator said:

Who cares ? Investors are making money on them and 25% in the past month is enormous. Sorry you missed the boat. No pun intended. 

I did not miss the boat.  I remember when it was $125.  The boat has sunk.

 

I do not purchase rubbish.

 

And day trading is a fools game reserved for those who are good at it, multimillionaires who would not sail on Celebrity or fools who will lose most of it.

 

Either you have the high dollar analytics or you don't.  Am I would bet that you don't.

Edited October 29, 2022 by NMTraveller

[XuGator]

Lol clearly it hasn’t sunk and almost every credible analyst rates RCL as a strong buy or buy with few holds and almost nobody a sell, except for people on these boards for some reason.  Nobody is talking about day trading and long term outlook is very strong.  RCL newest ship just sold out in 6 hrs. 
 

This isn’t even really debatable. Look at the market trend of the stock, the facts and reality completely contradict what you are suggesting. 

Edited October 29, 2022 by XuGator

[NMTraveller]

1 minute ago, XuGator said:

Lol clearly it hasn’t sunk and almost every credible analyst rates RCL as a strong buy or buy with few holds and almost nobody a sell, except for people on these boards for some reason.  Nobody is talking about day trading and long term outlook is very strong.  RCL newest ship just sold out in 6 hrs. 

If I followed analysts I would be broke.  But thank you for the foolish advise 🙂

 

Call me when they have ahem profits?

Edited October 29, 2022 by NMTraveller

[XuGator]

1 minute ago, NMTraveller said:

If I followed analysts I would be broke.  But thank you for the foolish advise 🙂

 

Call me when they have ahem profits?

I’ll check back in here in another month and we will see how much more money you missed out on. 

[NMTraveller]

20 minutes ago, XuGator said:

I’ll check back in here in another month and we will see how much more money you missed out on. 

Oh.  I will be so sad...

 

If you want to talk returns we must at least talk 5 years or more.

 

I don't suspect RCL will do well going into a recession as history has shown.

 

Again changing screen name to Captain Obvious...

 

If they cannot make money during positive GDP how are they going to do in the coming recession next year?  Asking for a friend.

 

Real valuations have to do with profits of which RCL has none lately and their outlook is sinking...

 

Edited October 29, 2022 by NMTraveller