How far in advance to book air for next summer?

I recently booked a cruise out of Amsterdam for next August (I'm in the US). This is the first time I've ever booked a cruise that I need to fly to this far in advance, in the past I've only booked European cruises 2-3 months out. I can't buy tickets for another few weeks but I'm wondering if I should buy as soon as I can, or wait for a while and get a feel of what the prices are and them jump when the price looks good. Is there any pattern to how prices work that far in advance? Will they start high and then go down, start low and go up or is it just pot luck?

Will they start high and then go down, start low and go up or is it just pot luck?

Well, first, nobody knows. Anybody who thinks they can outwit or anticipate what the airlines will charge is woefully misinformed about the mechanics of the industry. Airlines use enormously complicated (and very secret) computer programs to set fares, based on a large number of factors including historic demand, the specific nature of competition on a given route, cost variables like labor and fuel, currency exchange rates, and on and on.

Generally speaking - and like with all generalities there are lots of exceptions - airfares usually follow a slight arc. When they're first released - usually 11 to 12 months before the flight, they tend to be a little higher than they will be later, most likely because the airlines don't have an accurate read on their internal costs - fuel price for example - that early, so they'll charge more to hedge against potential cost increases before the flight date. Then during the 11 months, they'll fall a little, then as the cheapest "fare buckets" (specific fares tied to specific rules) sell out, the price will rise until a few days before the flight, when all but the most expensive buckets will have sold.

How fast this happens, or how steep the curve, is a crapshoot. Your best (and really, only) course of action is to monitor airfares and when you see something you can live with, pull the trigger and don't look back.

Two things I'd recommend. First, don't be an early bird. Early birds don't always get worms, sometimes they get cats. For a trip in August I wouldn't even start looking for airfare until this winter - January or February. You can monitor, of course, and if some crazy cheap fare turns up, go for it.

Second, recognize that high summer is usually the most expensive time to travel in economy class over the Atlantic, and ironically it's usually the cheapest time to travel in business class. Many airlines have sales for business class in mid-summer (the fares turn up in April or May typically) since actual demand by business travelers falls off just when tourist demand is climbing. No idea if that appeals, but if so it might be fun to monitor a forum on Flyertalk where people learn of cheap "premium" fares and post them. (There's also a board for cheap economy fares, too.) You'll need to brush up on your airport and airline codes (e.g. KL JFK-AMS) but it might be fun.

Economy - http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/mileage-run-deals-372/

Premium (business/first) - http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/premium-fare-deals-740/

No idea if that appeals, but if so it might be fun to monitor a forum on Flyertalk where people learn of cheap "premium" fares and post them. (There's also a board for cheap economy fares, too.) You'll need to brush up on your airport and airline codes (e.g. KL JFK-AMS) but it might be fun.

Thanks for the detailed answer! I'm a Flyertalk user although typically in the credit card section. In fact, that was where I learned that I could skip the last leg of a flight without any consequences. Good idea to watch there.

As for airport codes, I am well versed. I generally try to fly out of EWR or JFK for international flights, but the last two times we went to Europe we flew out of PHL (an extra hour+ drive) because the fare was much cheaper. I'm not sure if this is still the case since US has merged with AA, and they used to be big there.

I can't buy tickets for another few weeks but I'm wondering if I should buy as soon as I can, or wait for a while and get a feel of what the prices are and them jump when the price looks good.

Two other things to say:-

Don't assume that there is simply one good price for your trip. You may have different price points for different itineraries - eg what would you pay for non-stop flights in both directions; what would you pay for a one-stop that involves a transfer somewhere that's geographically in between; and what would you pay for a one-stop that requires you to backtrack quite a bit.

And (as you probably already know) don't think that you can play the system and get the lowest possible price for your flight. That way lies insanity. You might get lucky and achieve that, but so many people here think that if they wait a bit longer, they might get an even lower price than the one they see now - and all that happens is that they can no longer even buy at today's price, which would suddenly be a perfectly acceptable price to pay if only if it were to reappear.

In fact, that was where I learned that I could skip the last leg of a flight without any consequences.

The best story that I've heard was an airline that identified a number of people who were routinely buying AAA-BBB-CCC because it was cheaper than AAA-BBB, getting off at BBB and not turning up for the BBB-CCC flight. One day, these passengers suddenly found themselves beginning to get an extraordinary level of service at BBB. They were met at the gate by airline staff, who told them that the airline had noticed that they seemed to be repeatedly having difficulty finding the gate for their BBB-CCC flights. So the staff had been tasked to escort them personally to their BBB-CCC flight to make sure that they didn't get lost this time. Of course, if the passenger really wanted to finish the trip at BBB, the same staff were at their service to show them the way to the ticketing desk so that they could pay the additional fare for the AAA-BBB trip they were actually intending to take.

There are stories, too, of people who've suffered consequences to their frequent flyer accounts, ie having all their accrued miles and status taken away and the accounts revoked.

It's unlikely to happen to someone who only does it once in a blue moon, but it's an overstatement to say that this is always "without any consequences".

Find a price you can live with, buy, and don't look back. If you are tempted to wait for the price to drop further, ask yourself this:

Am I willing to pay a HIGHER price if I wait for the price to drop and it goes up instead of down?

As Gardyloo said, there are a zillion factors that go into airline pricing, and the available price can fluctuate frequently. Anyone who claims they "always" get the best price by booking at X number of days/weeks/months before their flight, or by booking on a certain day of the week or time of day, is either benefiting from an extremely coincidental string of lucky consistency, or they're full of it.

The best story that I've heard was an airline that identified a number of people who were routinely buying AAA-BBB-CCC because it was cheaper than AAA-BBB, getting off at BBB and not turning up for the BBB-CCC flight. One day, these passengers suddenly found themselves beginning to get an extraordinary level of service at BBB. They were met at the gate by airline staff, who told them that the airline had noticed that they seemed to be repeatedly having difficulty finding the gate for their BBB-CCC flights. So the staff had been tasked to escort them personally to their BBB-CCC flight to make sure that they didn't get lost this time. Of course, if the passenger really wanted to finish the trip at BBB, the same staff were at their service to show them the way to the ticketing desk so that they could pay the additional fare for the AAA-BBB trip they were actually intending to take.

 

There are stories, too, of people who've suffered consequences to their frequent flyer accounts, ie having all their accrued miles and status taken away and the accounts revoked.

In my case, the flight I skipped was after going thru customs at JFK (I was routed VCE-JFK-PHL and live in NY) and I turned left to the terminal after going thru customs rather than going right to recheck my luggage to PHL and had a rental car waiting for me at the airport. It was on Delta and the advice I got on FT was that I would likely have to do it on a regular basis before anyone noticed, and maybe not even then. Obviously as your story points out, YMMV. In my case, I had no consequences.

The other time I flew out of PHL to get a cheaper fare they routed me thru DTW so skipping the final leg was not an option (per your "backtrack quite a bit") comment.

on FT was that I would likely have to do it on a regular basis before anyone noticed, and maybe not even then. Obviously as your story points out, YMMV. In my case, I had no consequences.

 

But did you actually do it on a regular basis and still had no consequences, or did you do it once and there were no consequences? Big difference

My €.02 worth

MUST have certain seats

MUST have seats together

Buy when possible

The only thing that matters is cheapest cost?

Buy when you think price is lowest

I read in travel section that "on average " you will get the best price 54 days in advance of your departure date. Most people are afraid to wait that long.

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I read in travel section that "on average " you will get the best price 54 days in advance of your departure date. Most people are afraid to wait that long.

Which has absolutely ZERO correlation to YOUR particular flight needs. Considering that there are tens of thousands of flight segments flown every day, hundreds of thousand routings every day and endless possibilities of purchase timings, you are dealing with an average number that is meaningless in the practical sense (if it is even accurate in what it is saying).

It would be like basing your clothing choice on the 100 year average for the day - it's a statistic but has no relationship to the hurricane outside your door. Or the heat wave. Or the blizzard.

Or perhaps like the faulty statistician who drowned walking across a river that had an average depth of two feet.

Oh, and by the way....what's that "travel section" that's the source for this wonderful data?

I read in travel section that "on average " you will get the best price 54 days in advance of your departure date. Most people are afraid to wait that long.

Oh boy, here we go again. What those articles actually say is just that- if you average all the prices, of all the flights, to all the destinations, 54 days out is the magic number. What they DON'T say is that you can get that average without day 54 ever actually having the lowest price. Here's an oversimplified ex.: If half the flights are cheapest 64 days out and half the flights are cheapest 44 days out, then on average they'll be cheapest 54 days out. Yet no flight was every actually cheapest on day 54, and in fact for every single flight, day 54 could actually be the day it turned out to have been most expensive. But that fact would be lost when averaging. ;)

Plus keep this in mind: If there really was a magic number, say 54 days out, eventually every leisure traveler in the world would wait til that day to book flights. And guess what? The airlines would notice that in a heartbeat, and the laws of supply and demand would take over and 54 days out would suddenly become the MOST expensive day to purchase.

Just booked my flights for a cruise to Europe next summer. Air Canada is having a sale (almost over) and decided to jump on it. I researched multiple options and pricing scenarios. One of the things that shocked me was how many of the prime seats that are already gone, especially in economy. Some of the carriers that have true Premium Economy, were nearly sold out of that category, and for flights with excellent connections and timing, many of the business class seats were also gone, and this is 300+ days out. On the 767s, with the 2 seats on the side, many of the economy plus, comfort economy, etc. seats had already disappeared, only leaving those middle seats available or regular seats toward the rear of the plane.

I'm 6'2" and don't fit into standard economy seats for 7-15 hours anymore. If your 5'8", it might not matter. Just saying that for some of us, price is an important consideration, but seat selections may be even more so. Waiting until 100 days out will almost certainly limit that option. It already did on the several of the flights I researched!

Let me add, that even though the US carriers don't normally allow bookings until 330 days out, many international carriers start 360 days out, so you can start looking at those flights now. Another example of above. Last year we flew to Sidney for a cruise. Qantas had a sale going on from day 360-340 from flight day. All of their Premium Economy seats sold out in that sale. When the flight was released to AA, their oneworld partner, at 330 days, it was to late for PE. I was fortunate enough to have jumped on their sale direct, instead of waiting for AA to open up booking for the flight, so to get their true PE seats. Since Business Class tickets for that flight never went below $7500 (round trip), those sale price PE seats at $2500 were a steal!

I bought up to business class for the flight over, because of the absence of acceptable seats left available in PE or economy.

Just booked my flights for a cruise to Europe next summer....One of the things that shocked me was how many of the prime seats that are already gone, especially in economy.... only leaving those middle seats available or regular seats toward the rear of the plane.

More likely, the prime seats have not all been sold, but rather they have been "blocked" and can only be selected by the airline's elite level passengers at this point. I can't speak for Air Canada specifically, but I know that on Delta I can have my pick of seats but the once-a-year flyer will see a very different seat map when they go to select seats.

waterbug123,

I can't speak for Delta in that I stopped flying them years ago. My comments were directed at both AA and UA where I have fairly high status on both airlines and any seat available would be shown to me. The prime seats have and are disappearing fast.

Neither of those airlines will show seating for their partner flights, oneworld or Star Alliance. So if your point is that when I checked SAS seating, or BA, or CA seating that since I didn't have status with each of those lines directly, I couldn't see all the seats, then I have no way of knowing that. However, I doubt that the OP, based upon the question, has status with any airline, therefore your point is rather mute to his concerns/question.

If seat selection is important, one should find a sale as early as possible and latch onto a seat they are happy with. If seat selection is of no importance, then the waiting game may or may not reap benefits.

waterbug123,

 

I can't speak for Delta in that I stopped flying them years ago. My comments were directed at both AA and UA where I have fairly high status on both airlines and any seat available would be shown to me. The prime seats have and are disappearing fast.

 

However, I doubt that the OP, based upon the question, has status with any airline, therefore your point is rather mute to his concerns/question.

Sorry, the only airline you mentioned specifically with regard to your flights next summer was Air Canada. If you were referring specifically to AA and UA that wasn't clear.

And my post wasn't intended to address the OP's question about pricing; I was addressing the situation you found with only middle seats being available for next summer. I still find it very odd that you are only seeing middle seats available and still suspect it's something other than all the other seats being sold. Then again, you did clarify at one point that the limitations were more associated with what you felt were the best flight times and routes. Perhaps there is indeed more availability on less desirable routes, which are likely also priced lower. In that case, it does have some bearing on the OP's situation. If he's trying to find the lowest price he may be more willing to take a less direct route or longer connection time.

Well, first, nobody knows. Anybody who thinks they can outwit or anticipate what the airlines will charge is woefully misinformed about the mechanics of the industry. Airlines use enormously complicated (and very secret) computer programs to set fares, based on a large number of factors including historic demand, the specific nature of competition on a given route, cost variables like labor and fuel, currency exchange rates, and on and on.

 

Generally speaking - and like with all generalities there are lots of exceptions - airfares usually follow a slight arc. When they're first released - usually 11 to 12 months before the flight, they tend to be a little higher than they will be later, most likely because the airlines don't have an accurate read on their internal costs - fuel price for example - that early, so they'll charge more to hedge against potential cost increases before the flight date. Then during the 11 months, they'll fall a little, then as the cheapest "fare buckets" (specific fares tied to specific rules) sell out, the price will rise until a few days before the flight, when all but the most expensive buckets will have sold.

 

How fast this happens, or how steep the curve, is a crapshoot. Your best (and really, only) course of action is to monitor airfares and when you see something you can live with, pull the trigger and don't look back.

 

Two things I'd recommend. First, don't be an early bird. Early birds don't always get worms, sometimes they get cats. For a trip in August I wouldn't even start looking for airfare until this winter - January or February. You can monitor, of course, and if some crazy cheap fare turns up, go for it.

 

Second, recognize that high summer is usually the most expensive time to travel in economy class over the Atlantic, and ironically it's usually the cheapest time to travel in business class. Many airlines have sales for business class in mid-summer (the fares turn up in April or May typically) since actual demand by business travelers falls off just when tourist demand is climbing. No idea if that appeals, but if so it might be fun to monitor a forum on Flyertalk where people learn of cheap "premium" fares and post them. (There's also a board for cheap economy fares, too.) You'll need to brush up on your airport and airline codes (e.g. KL JFK-AMS) but it might be fun.

 

Economy - http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/mileage-run-deals-372/

Premium (business/first) - http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/premium-fare-deals-740/

Sound advice. We're in the same situation for next summer (cruise out of Barcelona). We're seasoned travelers (family in Belgium and Scotland) but it truly is a crapshoot shopping for air fare. Never have used RCL's air program but we'll check into it to see what's the best way over there.

For the OP. It really depend on class of service too.

Earlier the better to search for lower price business seats -- especially if traveling UA out of EWR P and Z fares.

Just this week I was checking prices ATL to BCN for our Med cruise next May-June. I wanted to fly Delta ("hometown" airport) non stop and the cost was running $1900pp economy. I noted American had a fare sale to BCN but I wasn't happy with the route or the seats. You would have to pay more to sit on the outsides of the aisles or be stuck in one of the middle four seats.

This morning I woke up and tried Delta again. Today those $1900 tickets are less than $750 non stop. Grabbed two right away. Best advice is to check ITA software quite regularly and note if someone has a cheap fare going on, then chances are the close competitor may lower their price too. I never go by how many days away the flights are. It varies too much!

I've got an Asia cruise booked for 2018, and have had it booked since Dec 2015. I've been tracking flights for the similar dates in 2017 since they were released. It is amazing to me how many seats were already sold in June of 2016 for February of 2017 if the schedule stays the same.

Since we are considering biting the bullet and paying for business class, we will probably book early to get the seats we want, since I've done the FlyerTalk and Seat guru research.

It is all a matter of deciding how you want to spend your money.

It is amazing to me how many seats were already sold in June of 2016 for February of 2017 if the schedule stays the same.

How were you checking this? Reliable indicators of this are usually confidential information which it's extremely difficult to get hold of. Therefore publicly-available indicators are usually unreliable.

Ok, I'll rephrase. Available seats to book have dropped significantly.

When I first started tracking on the airline site the seats were available to book. Since there is a cruise on the same schedule, it is possible that cruise goers booked the flights I'm tracking.

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Ok...I'll bite.

Unless you have very special access to airline data, the best you can probably know if whether or not there are 9 or more seats available for sale in a particular fare bucket. Whether this is through a service such as KVS or ExpertFlyer or by attempting multiple dummy bookings, you still won't know anything beyond that number of 9.

Unfortunately, some people think that a seat map is an accurate gauge of how many seats have been sold on a flight. In a word....WRONG.

A seat map is indicative of what seats are available FOR ASSIGNMENT at THIS POINT IN TIME. Which is not the same thing as seats available for sale, nor for seats available for sale in specific fare buckets, nor for how many people have actually bought a ticket. (There are reports of some airlines overselling flights by 25%+, because history has shown that they have many no-shows and statistically they can reasonably do this).

So...how do you know this? What's the source of your data? And if it is your super-secret airline source, why are you coming here?

Would this thinking also hold true for award seat availability? that which you see on one day is not necessarily what will be available another?

I have come across instances where there is only 1 seat available in bus or first and then when I look for 2 seats there are none.

Would this thinking also hold true for award seat availability? that which you see on one day is not necessarily what will be available another?

I have come across instances where there is only 1 seat available in bus or first and then when I look for 2 seats there are none.

In most cases, award availability comes from specific fare buckets in the airline's inventory management system. When this is the case, the system will always look for the number seats requested. If there is a request for one seat, it will show those with at least that many in the bucket. If the request is for two, it will only show those with at least 2 in the bucket, and so forth.

Years back, airlines dumped their whole award availability into the buckets when the flights were first loaded into the GDS. Nowdays, it has become a more fluid situation, where seats are added or removed depending on overall yield managment for the flight. For simple example, a flight is selling well. No need to put in award seats. Not selling - make awards available to use up the seats that would be flying empty. All part of the yield management algorithms in the airline's systems.

We have a Med cruise booked for early June, 2017. Since we will be celebrating our 25th Wedding Anniversary we are splurging on rt business class tix. I've been monitoring pricing and they still seem high. In GENERAL, do airlines drop their prices and/or have a sale for next Summer's travel in the previous Winter? We have no airline miles. Routing, airline preference, amenities and seat comfort are more important than just the lowest price so I'm curious if you more seasoned travelers have an educated guess in regards to how many months out one should expecting better pricing?

Thank you in advance for your advice.