When will Regent drop their prices?

[Dolebludger]

I have just read on this board that some Regent ships are sailing about half full now, and have bookings for an even smaller percent on cruises right after. The last time there was a national emergency (9-11) Regent (then Radisson) cut fares sharply and still couldn’t fill their ships for years. I have no interest in getting a heavily discounted Regent cruise at this time as we would have to fly. In no way would I get on a commercial airline now. I’m just curious.

[mrlevin]

Publicly never.  They will dump inventory overseas or give deals to agencies.  But the published price will stay the same.  

 

Marc

[Bigdogwon]

6.9 Billion dollars in debt, they will have to give cruises away on the Bliss, Joy, Encore and all the other NCL ships before they discount RSSC.

[GrJ Berkshire]

Silly question, more.  like will they be able to see out this crisis. When will they need to stop cruises and mothball the ships as passenger numbers simply will not make them commercially viable.

We hope that the Regent experience we have so loved will survive this hit, I think the Regent upmarket will but it will be late 2020 early next year before there is an upturn.  Even then it will be a smaller leaner cruise line with I doubt 5 ships, the new one for 2023 a fantasy  .Whether the mass market 5000+ cruise ships will cope is another matter !!

[JMARINER]

1 hour ago, Bigdogwon said:

6.9 Billion dollars in debt, they will have to give cruises away on the Bliss, Joy, Encore and all the other NCL ships before they discount RSSC.

With a $7 billion debt, what do you speculate the mortgage monthly nut is? I come up with about $40 Million/month. (3.5%/20 years). How much cash is on hand?

 

J

[Dolebludger]

I don’t see it as a silly question at all. Every retailer cuts prices when there is a lull in their market. And isn’t all the debt and payments on it the responsibility of NCLH, and not Regent alone? And the “lull in the market” for Regent isn’t really based on fear of catching the virus on board from the crowds there. We all know that there aren’t any crowds on Regent! Rather, lack of demand for Regent is and will be more due too the disaster on the stock market, which is being caused by lame reaction by governments to the virus problem. Not just our Feds, but states and foreign governments too. 
 

 

[Pcardad]

The next ship is under contract - not sure how easy it would be to get out of it. More likely they would sell something older.

[nfcu]

10 hours ago, Pcardad said:

The next ship is under contract - not sure how easy it would be to get out of it. More likely they would sell something older.

Sell to who?  Where will be the buyers?

[Pcardad]

Ask Mlevin - he says the Navigator is for sale.

 

My point was that the new ship is under contract and probably very expensive to get out of the deal. 

 

If NCL needs to raise cash, they would dump an unencumbered asset rather than break a contract.

[papaflamingo]

13 hours ago, JMARINER said:

How much cash is on hand?

$252.9 Million cash.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nyse-nclh/norwegian-cruise-line-holdings/news/these-4-measures-indicate-that-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-nysenclh-is-using-debt-extensively/

 

[Dolebludger]

If Regent were to sell a ship, it is my guess it would be the Navigator. It’s the oldest ship in the fleet. It doesn’t fit the all balcony model. And it has had vibration problems, sometimes severe in some area, from its launch. 

[Pcardad]

But we love the Vibrator!

[JMARINER]

4 hours ago, papaflamingo said:

$252.9 Million cash.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nyse-nclh/norwegian-cruise-line-holdings/news/these-4-measures-indicate-that-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-nysenclh-is-using-debt-extensively/

 

Thanks papaglamingo.

 

OMG. That is, IMO, truly a disturbing report on the state of NCLH's financial stability. I wonder if Prestige CH has an out from under the HCLH umbrella.

 

J

[Dolebludger]

I hope there is an out for Regent and Oceania to depart from the NCLH group. NCL cruise line itself puts guests in a highly crowded environment, and is surely the cause of  spread of diseases of all kinds. I wouldn’t cruise NCL If the fare were free, even if there were no Corona virus problem.

 

On the other hand, Regent and O provide an uncrowded environment for their guests that causes this 76 year old no concern. The only points of serious hesitation in booking a cruise on these  lines is the super crowded conditions in airports and on airlines that I would have to experience to get to one of their cruises, plus the financial market crash. But solely due to these factors, I wonder if a fare reduction by Regent (and O) to increase sales at this time.

[papaflamingo]

3 hours ago, JMARINER said:

Thanks papaglamingo.

 

OMG. That is, IMO, truly a disturbing report on the state of NCLH's financial stability. I wonder if Prestige CH has an out from under the HCLH umbrella.

 

J

It is very disturbing considering the value of an FCC that you might push down the road a year or two only to find that NCLH doesn't survive this.  But keep the faith...it'll all work out.  😎

[TrulyBlonde]

Here it is:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

·

42m

At my request, effective midnight tonight, Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, and MSC have all agreed to suspend outbound cruises for thirty days. It is a great and important industry – it will be kept that way!

[JMARINER]

1 hour ago, papaflamingo said:

It is very disturbing considering the value of an FCC that you might push down the road a year or two only to find that NCLH doesn't survive this.  But keep the faith...it'll all work out.  😎

My concern that I have some substantial deposits which are not insure because final payment is not yet due.  The three Asia cruise are not until 2021. Not even any coverage under credit card company.

 

J

[papaflamingo]

27 minutes ago, JMARINER said:

My concern that I have some substantial deposits which are not insure because final payment is not yet due.  The three Asia cruise are not until 2021. Not even any coverage under credit card company.

 

J

Me too.  We have 48 nights from Tokyo to Sydney booked in Nov. 2021.  But keep in mind, the only loss you'll have before Final Payment is due is $100 per person, and that can be used as a FCC.  So not a huge risk.....as long as Regent doesn't go out of business, that is.    

[Pcardad]

I bought a boatload (hahaha) of NCL stock today at $10...lets see what happens.

[Travelcat2]

With so many of us looking to use our FCC's, I cannot see any reason for Regent to drop their prices.  

[Pcardad]

I haven't had a single cancellation yet (fingers crossed).

[Dolebludger]

Maybe there isn’t a reason for a price drop. I don’t know. But maybe there is, just like post 9 - 11. I don’t want to post (or even think about) how much we have lost in our investment portfolio in the past week! And there is the problem (even pre Corona) of unreliability of air service on domestic legs, for which Regent provides only basic economy, which can’t be upgraded — even with cash. And with airlines eliminating flights, this is a problem of getting to a Regent cruise that can only get worse. I know that air service and investment market problems are beyond Regent’s control. But so was 9 - 11.

[spindrift]

papaflamingo, that is somewhat incorrect. You lose more than $100.  My final is due 3/16, and I have a $4,000 + deposit which will be lost if I cancel, plus the insurance which I bought.  That does not include bankruptcy either.

That may be the best loss to cancel anyway rather than losing $30,000.  I wish Regent could give us a little better guarantee that the "reassurance" plan in the event of a major loss.

I love Regent, but I'm not is a position to lose $30,000.

[Boatmans Lady]

On 3/13/2020 at 10:20 PM, papaflamingo said:

It is very disturbing considering the value of an FCC that you might push down the road a year or two only to find that NCLH doesn't survive this.  But keep the faith...it'll all work out.  😎

Our cruise isn't till this time next year so not panicking but we stand to lose much more than $100.

In the UK, the deposit due is 20% of the total cost and that deposit is non refundable!!

[Dolebludger]

One thing that I fear will cut bookings far into the future just happened today. Yesterday, US travelers in the U.K. and Ireland were fine. Now according to NBC news, they need to get out by midnight tonight. Airlines simply aren’t able to respond that quickly. And the travelers who are able to fly home are worried about what they will face when they get back to the US. No one has told them. So it is the uncertainty resulting from ever - changing rules and restrictions that will deter all international travel well into the future, I fear.

 

This is probably not the last international crisis that will impact US residents who are vacationing in other countries (or at sea).  It is the uncertainty from changing requirements, and very short notice on the changes, that will weigh on my mind when making vacation plans well into the future. I doubt that I am alone in this concern.This will be a negative factor for many in considering travel, including and especially by cruise ship, well into the future.  One way the cruise lines could combat this is by cutting prices, just like they did after 9 - 11. 
 

That is why I posted this thread. It is not to tell Regent and NCLH what to do, as that would be well beyond what little authority I have in any area. My purpose is only to remind Regent of what it’s direct predecessor (Radisson) did after 9 -11. And it worked then.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Dolebludger