It's even worse than we thought

[Cruise Raider]

Well, some of you all have been stating that cruises won't be back until next year ... and yikes, this article kind of supports that theory!  It just hit me like a ton of bricks.  If true, that will be 4 canceled cruises for us in one year ... and the one in January, I took a move over offer ... so basically, it could be five!  

Well, it's just safer to stay at home and hope for next year.  I will keep a sliver of hope for the end of the year but won't expect too much.  

 

https://thepointsguy.com/news/cruise-lines-could-store-ships-months-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR0MJH0DVWblYbRwDRqxf6dHCLh71H14KsCEvYl-glSi0QUSqnJUOyOd6ko

[npcl]

5 minutes ago, Cruise Raider said:

Well, some of you all have been stating that cruises won't be back until next year ... and yikes, this article kind of supports that theory!  It just hit me like a ton of bricks.  If true, that will be 4 canceled cruises for us in one year ... and the one in January, I took a move over offer ... so basically, it could be five!  

Well, it's just safer to stay at home and hope for next year.  I will keep a sliver of hope for the end of the year but won't expect too much.  

 

https://thepointsguy.com/news/cruise-lines-could-store-ships-months-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR0MJH0DVWblYbRwDRqxf6dHCLh71H14KsCEvYl-glSi0QUSqnJUOyOd6ko

Its what I expect.  When cruising does start back up, I also expect it to be very limited itineraries at the start, mostly closed loop, no more than 7 days.

[Potstech]

Speculation, Speculation and then more speculation. No one will know until this is over with.

[2ferfun]

This is just so sad.  I support whatever needs to be done for the safety and health of all passengers and crew but this is going to change the industry for a long, long time.  For those of us that love cruising, its just so hard to watch it crumble. I guess there are a lot more important things to worry about right now.  But I cant help but feel sad for what might happen.

[RJAM3]

8 minutes ago, Potstech said:

Speculation, Speculation and then more speculation. No one will know until this is over with.

you are right on!

[voljeep]

18 minutes ago, Potstech said:

Speculation, Speculation and then more speculation. No one will know until this is over with.

well … DELETED !!

 

of course it's speculation until it's not 

[voljeep]

32 minutes ago, npcl said:

Its what I expect.  When cruising does start back up, I also expect it to be very limited itineraries at the start, mostly closed loop, no more than 7 days.

yep, I got blasted for stating that a couple of weeks ago now

 

"cold layup" - not good

[tonit964]

I think cruising is done for sure for the remainder of 2020. It is really sad but my thoughts are with so many people out of work right now and even more going forward.

 

I'm not even thinking about rescheduling my canceled cruise until much later next year when things have hopefully calmed down.

[voljeep]

i'm sure our end of November cruise is in jeopardy , unfortunately … 

 

glass still half-full … but final is due on … 9/11 yikes - in another time, I would have been going ahead and sending in partial payments - really liked seeing that balance due go down … now that money is still sitting in our separate 'cruise account' drawing 2 cents interest  last month - woo-hoo

 

[nini]

12 minutes ago, voljeep said:

yep, I got blasted for stating that a couple of weeks ago now

 

"cold layup" - not good

It is ok... I get blasted too. I know how you feel.

[Cruise Raider]

1 hour ago, npcl said:

Its what I expect.  When cruising does start back up, I also expect it to be very limited itineraries at the start, mostly closed loop, no more than 7 days.

Good point!  

[Guindalf]

I wish people would stop speculating and adding to the panic and general distress. No-one knows what’ll happen, so everyone, journalistic hacks included, should keep it to themselves. 
 

Voicing opinions just leads to more speculation and even more absurd statements. 

[npcl]

Following your logic CC should shutdown since a majority of the posts are opinion and speculation.

[Cruise Raider]

6 minutes ago, npcl said:

Following your logic CC should shutdown since a majority of the posts are opinion and speculation.

 

Right!!!  My motto ... just pass on by if you don't like it!  

[Cruise Raider]

1 hour ago, tonit964 said:

I think cruising is done for sure for the remainder of 2020. It is really sad but my thoughts are with so many people out of work right now and even more going forward.

 

I'm not even thinking about rescheduling my canceled cruise until much later next year when things have hopefully calmed down.

 

In January, I thought I won the lottery because I got a move over offer.  Then, my April cruise was canceled ... still ok and I booked a trip to Vegas to take its place.  hahaha!!  Well, Vegas shut down  and now, my May cruise will most definitely be canceled.  Still ok ... we are on a strict lockdown here in the SF Bay Area but we're sheltering in place.  I still have my August and December cruises to look forward to ... ahhhhhhh ... maybe not.  Like I said, it kind of hit me like a ton of bricks but there is a silver lining ... I'm going to have the cleanest house ever.  hahaha!  There is always next year if this year doesn't work out.  

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, voljeep said:

yep, I got blasted for stating that a couple of weeks ago now

 

"cold layup" - not good

I don't see anywhere where Carnival actually said "cold layup", just that they would be reducing crew to a minimum.  Vast difference, from someone who has done all kinds of lay-ups.  Putting a cruise ship in "cold lay-up" would not only take weeks to accomplish and millions of dollars, but simply removing 90% of the crew (the hotel staff) and keeping the deck and engine staff (who perform 98% of the maintenance anyway) and keeping the ships operating will accomplish the same thing and cost less.  Not only would engine rooms have to be dehumidified as the article states, but the entire ship, or you will get condensation in a hurry (talk to the folks on the Carnival Triumph), and with it mold issues in inaccessible places behind the cabin walls.  So, there needs to be power to run all the dehumidification equipment, etc.  I don't believe it is feasible to put a modern cruise ship into cold lay-up with any hope of every taking her out again for anything other than the scrap yard.

[npcl]

3 minutes ago, Cruise Raider said:

 

In January, I thought I won the lottery because I got a move over offer.  Then, my April cruise was canceled ... still ok and I booked a trip to Vegas to take its place.  hahaha!!  Well, Vegas shut down  and now, my May cruise will most definitely be canceled.  Still ok ... we are on a strict lockdown here in the SF Bay Area but we're sheltering in place.  I still have my August and December cruises to look forward to ... ahhhhhhh ... maybe not.  Like I said, it kind of hit me like a ton of bricks but there is a silver lining ... I'm going to have the cleanest house ever.  hahaha!  There is always next year if this year doesn't work out.  

At this point I am hoping to even be able to do a non-cruising, non-international vacation of any type this year.

[voljeep]

4 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

I don't see anywhere where Carnival actually said "cold layup", just that they would be reducing crew to a minimum.  Vast difference, from someone who has done all kinds of lay-ups.  Putting a cruise ship in "cold lay-up" would not only take weeks to accomplish and millions of dollars, but simply removing 90% of the crew (the hotel staff) and keeping the deck and engine staff (who perform 98% of the maintenance anyway) and keeping the ships operating will accomplish the same thing and cost less.  Not only would engine rooms have to be dehumidified as the article states, but the entire ship, or you will get condensation in a hurry (talk to the folks on the Carnival Triumph), and with it mold issues in inaccessible places behind the cabin walls.  So, there needs to be power to run all the dehumidification equipment, etc.  I don't believe it is feasible to put a modern cruise ship into cold lay-up with any hope of every taking her out again for anything other than the scrap yard.

per the link provided above

 

Cruise giant Carnival Corp., the parent company of nine of the world’s best-known cruise brands, said in a regulatory filing on Monday that some of its vessels could face a “prolonged” withdrawal from service consistent with what is known in the industry as a cold layup.

[Cruise Raider]

3 minutes ago, npcl said:

At this point I am hoping to even be able to do a non-cruising, non-international vacation of any type this year.

 

I know, right??  I have a few domestic trips planned ... but, if they don't happen.  There is always my backyard ... hopefully with my family!  

[Mackenzie1]

Yikes!  Carnival is burning through $1 billion per month with it’s ships not sailing!  I hope that’s not our refund money. 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Mackenzie1

[chengkp75]

6 minutes ago, voljeep said:

per the link provided above

 

Cruise giant Carnival Corp., the parent company of nine of the world’s best-known cruise brands, said in a regulatory filing on Monday that some of its vessels could face a “prolonged” withdrawal from service consistent with what is known in the industry as a cold layup.

No, that is the author's interpretation of what Carnival said, which was:

 

"“During the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, certain of our ships will be in warm ship layup where the ship will be manned by a full crew, and certain of our ships will be in a prolonged ship layup where the ship will be manned by a limited crew,”"

 

I don't see any mention of "cold lay-up" from the quote from the Carnival filing, but I see where the author took the "limited crew" statement to mean "cold lay-up".

 

Just because cargo ships that go into "prolonged" lay-up do the measures mentioned, does not mean that Carnival would go that route, as the cost to do so would wipe out many months of projected savings.

Edited April 3, 2020 by chengkp75

[Cruise Raider]

4 minutes ago, voljeep said:

per the link provided above

 

Cruise giant Carnival Corp., the parent company of nine of the world’s best-known cruise brands, said in a regulatory filing on Monday that some of its vessels could face a “prolonged” withdrawal from service consistent with what is known in the industry as a cold layup.

 

That's what I read, too.  And, they pulled all cruises out of San Francisco for the remainder of 2020.  I'm not holding out too much hope ... but, I'm also staying healthy, so there is that!!  

[tonit964]

38 minutes ago, Cruise Raider said:

 

In January, I thought I won the lottery because I got a move over offer.  Then, my April cruise was canceled ... still ok and I booked a trip to Vegas to take its place.  hahaha!!  Well, Vegas shut down  and now, my May cruise will most definitely be canceled.  Still ok ... we are on a strict lockdown here in the SF Bay Area but we're sheltering in place.  I still have my August and December cruises to look forward to ... ahhhhhhh ... maybe not.  Like I said, it kind of hit me like a ton of bricks but there is a silver lining ... I'm going to have the cleanest house ever.  hahaha!  There is always next year if this year doesn't work out.  

That's a bummer for sure. I really hope your other cruises work out, at least the December one anyway.

Yeah, theres not much else to organize or clean at my house.😄

[npcl]

26 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

No, that is the author's interpretation of what Carnival said, which was:

 

"“During the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, certain of our ships will be in warm ship layup where the ship will be manned by a full crew, and certain of our ships will be in a prolonged ship layup where the ship will be manned by a limited crew,”"

 

I don't see any mention of "cold lay-up" from the quote from the Carnival filing, but I see where the author took the "limited crew" statement to mean "cold lay-up".

I know from Carnivals other posting that they defined warm layup as meaning immediate return to service (week or so) , prolonged ship layup taking an extended period to return to service (implied longer than 30 days).  What is your view on the timelines?  And how would you define cold layup?

Edited April 3, 2020 by npcl

[opshannon]

I wish I could be the kind of person who thinks this article is overblown and based on foolish panic. But I cannot reconcile in my mind, using the information that's available to all of us, how this is all going to go away in a month or two and life will return to normal. The data just doesn't suggest that. Until there is a vaccine, there are going to be outbreaks anywhere people gather, be it cruise ships, sports stadiums, or schools. We know that a vaccine is at least 12-18 months away. I admire people who are optimistic, but I don't see where that's coming from in the data.