It's even worse than we thought

[Nymich]

Just now, Cruise Raider said:

 

Yes indeed!!  I actually asked if I could use my FCC instead of cash to book a future cruise and was refused.  It wasn't posted in my account yet.  They were doing it for a while and then must have stopped short of when I called in.  Well, the cruise I booked will no doubt be canceled as well ... just more time to wait for that refund.  

It sounds like they are trying to make it hard to use the FCC's they promised us.  At this point, I will be happy just to get my cash back.  

Yep they all are doing it.  I had 4 different cruises on 4 different lines and none of them liked the idea of giving cash back and made it hard to do.  So far I have 2 out of the 4 that I got the refund and deposit back on with September and December on deck.   Sill trying to decide if I need to shoot them too.

[MJSailors]

    I was thinking this morning ,while on my treadmill walk ,of the number of travel experiences that remain on our bucket list and how the Covid-19 has put a major crimp on those plans. As both my DH and I are 65+ ,zooming to  our seventies, time is not as vast as it once was.

    We had to cancel a golf trip to a Bermuda resort in March- a definite bucket list items. Right now, I can’t think of future vacation plans.  My morning thoughts had me feeling a bit sad.

        So, I gave myself a pep talk. The focus of my DH and my efforts need to be trying to stay healthy and positive at this time. This,IMHO, is paramount for us. So , we stay safe at home(hopefully) and keep in touch with friends and family by phone,text and video chat. It is a difficult time. But, I think of my grandparents and parents who had to deal with the Great Depression and WW11.

       My maternal grandfather and two uncles kept the family farm going as well as their trucking business. My father was proud of the fact that,as a young man, he never missed a day of work. The years after the 1929 crash were a difficult time. Many businesses failed, but by the early thirties, things started to improve. New businesses began. 

       This crisis will pass. Will our way of life be different- most likely.

Will the cruise/vacation industry look different- most likely.

Let’s hope that we stay well and healthy  

Stay home, stay healthy,save lives.  

 

 

 

[chipmaster]

On 4/3/2020 at 11:09 AM, Cruise Raider said:

Well, some of you all have been stating that cruises won't be back until next year ... and yikes, this article kind of supports that theory!  It just hit me like a ton of bricks.  If true, that will be 4 canceled cruises for us in one year ... and the one in January, I took a move over offer ... so basically, it could be five!  

Well, it's just safer to stay at home and hope for next year.  I will keep a sliver of hope for the end of the year but won't expect too much.  

 

https://thepointsguy.com/news/cruise-lines-could-store-ships-months-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR0MJH0DVWblYbRwDRqxf6dHCLh71H14KsCEvYl-glSi0QUSqnJUOyOd6ko

 

By end of the year we'll be back into winter in the northern hemisphere and another round of flu.

 

Given how this pandemic is most of the world will still have very restricted travel, and the economy has tanked all across the globe,  and every ship out there is going thru so much drama with sick people and blocked docking.

 

It'll be a long long long long time and it will be very different when cruising opens up again.

 

[4cats4me]

Even if I wanted to book another cruise at the moment, I couldn’t since the FCC’s (150%)

100 + 50% FCC haven't been deposited into my account.  

I’m going to forego all travel this year that involves ships or planes until things stabilize.

Car trips for us this year.  

[AF-1]

MJSailors,  good post.  To Quote Bob Dylan; "A Change is Gonna Come".  This world pandemic will change the way the entire travel industry will function. It will change the way we the people look at taking future vacations.  It's all good; after reading and watching video's about how Delta Airlines will clean their planes after every leg; and if they aren't done cleaning they will delay flights;  and how every jet will be de-fogged to include seats, arm rests, trays, lav's.  This is a good thing;  Why did it take a worldwide pandemic to put these things into affect?  I don't know but its a good thing;  so the cruise industry will most likely do the same type of  cleaning for future sailings.   Have a wondeful day

[Daniel A]

41 minutes ago, AF-1 said:

MJSailors,  good post.  To Quote Bob Dylan; "A Change is Gonna Come".  This world pandemic will change the way the entire travel industry will function. It will change the way we the people look at taking future vacations.  It's all good; after reading and watching video's about how Delta Airlines will clean their planes after every leg; and if they aren't done cleaning they will delay flights;  and how every jet will be de-fogged to include seats, arm rests, trays, lav's.  This is a good thing;  Why did it take a worldwide pandemic to put these things into affect?  I don't know but its a good thing;  so the cruise industry will most likely do the same type of  cleaning for future sailings.   Have a wondeful day

I think the number of cruisers and other travelers purchasing Cancel For Any Reason insurance will dramatically increase.  Watch what happens to the cost of travel  insurance as it becomes more appealing.

[AF-1]

I totally agree Daniel A.  I see cancel for any reason especially with the 65 and older group;  going up two fold

[MJSailors]

Thank you,AF-1.

We have faith that good comes out of difficulties. You know what they say...what doesn’t kill us,only makes us stronger. I think that line ,or something similar, was in the movie, Steel Magnolias.

Interesting that you mention about the protocol Delta Airlines is putting into place.

Sometimes I think a shake-up occurs to reset priorities. 

Stay safe and healthy !

[shipndip60]

Yeah !!!  There is another saying also from a movie ( GET BUSY LIVING OR GET BUSY DYING ) Everyone stay safe out there do what's right for us all but continue to live life.

[dog]

2 hours ago, Daniel A said:

I think the number of cruisers and other travelers purchasing Cancel For Any Reason insurance will dramatically increase.  Watch what happens to the cost of travel  insurance as it becomes more appealing.

Interesting. I did a mock booking this week, Princess insurance was $50 pp. I am elite so I get cancel for any reason, is that correct?  Wondering if this was a glitch on Princess website? $50 pp for a 8 day Europ cruise?

[Hlitner]

3 hours ago, Daniel A said:

I think the number of cruisers and other travelers purchasing Cancel For Any Reason insurance will dramatically increase.  Watch what happens to the cost of travel  insurance as it becomes more appealing.

The problem with your thought is that it is likely that "Cancel for Any reason" insurance is quickly becoming the thing of the past.  Several major travel insurance companies have already pulled this type of insurance off the market and their are indications it will disappear or possibly return with new exclusions and much higher cost.  I recently did a post, elsewhere on CC, about insurance and how most policies have now been modified to exclude anything related to COVID-19 or future pandemics.  Some excellent travel health policies, issued in the USA, have also excluded most coverage to areas that have a government Level 3 warning which now includes ALL cruises and ANY international travel.

 

There are also issues regarding cruise line's and their own insurance providers.  Keep in mind that no cruise line will operate any ship without adequate insurance and this will play a major part in when cruise ships can resume operation.

 

Hank 

[ontheweb]

7 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

The problem with your thought is that it is likely that "Cancel for Any reason" insurance is quickly becoming the thing of the past.  Several major travel insurance companies have already pulled this type of insurance off the market and their are indications it will disappear or possibly return with new exclusions and much higher cost.  I recently did a post, elsewhere on CC, about insurance and how most policies have now been modified to exclude anything related to COVID-19 or future pandemics.  Some excellent travel health policies, issued in the USA, have also excluded most coverage to areas that have a government Level 3 warning which now includes ALL cruises and ANY international travel.

 

There are also issues regarding cruise line's and their own insurance providers.  Keep in mind that no cruise line will operate any ship without adequate insurance and this will play a major part in when cruise ships can resume operation.

 

Hank 

Good point about the cruise lines also being dependent on their own insurance providers. I don't think anyone had previously brought up that point.

[AF-1]

Does travel insurance cover the cost of cruise line bankrupcy?

[Hlitner]

1 minute ago, AF-1 said:

Does travel insurance cover the cost of cruise line bankrupcy?

Perhaps, but you must read the specific language in your policy.  But if you paid for a cruise, in the USA, with a major credit card you would be able to put any of the cruise charges "in dispute" and get a credit card refund.  We have previously had to do this with two cruise line bankruptcies. 

 

I think a bigger issue with bankruptcy would be with outstanding Future Cruise Credits which would likely be completely lost.  That is one reason we would accept a refund over a more generous FCC.  Another issue with FCCs is that they are time-limited and the cruise lines could increase the cost of all their cruises during that time period.....which would effectively devalue the FCCs.

 

Hank

[AF-1]

Hank, thanks for a great explanation

[bluesea321]

Good review of difficulties facing CCL:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/carnivals-struggle-to-survive-the-coronavirus-as-outbreak-wipes-out-the-cruise-industry.html

 

"Carnival has proven resilient, despite seemingly insurmountable setbacks.

Some experts say this time it’s different. 

Industry experts think that, unlike past outbreaks, COVID-19 will fundamentally alter the cruising model."

[Cruise Raider]

3 hours ago, dog said:

Interesting. I did a mock booking this week, Princess insurance was $50 pp. I am elite so I get cancel for any reason, is that correct?  Wondering if this was a glitch on Princess website? $50 pp for a 8 day Europ cruise?

 

Currently, the Princess Vacation Protection starts at $39 and is dependent upon the price of the cruise.  

For elite passengers, yes and no ... 

If you purchase the standard insurance, you are automatically upgraded to the platinum insurance.  When you have this insurance in place, AON covers the medical and other portions of your policy.  If you choose to cancel for a non-covered reason through AON and they will have you shoot it back to Princess.  So, you can cancel up until the day of your sailing but you will get FCCs for 100% of your cruise fare (I think it is 75% back if you have the standard insurance).  You will get an actual refund of your taxes and port fees as well as any prepurchased excursions, specialty dinners, beverage packages, etc.  

 

[WmFCoyote]

But if PCL cancels the cruise you would get 100% cash back to the means that it was paid by?

[Cruise Raider]

16 minutes ago, WmFCoyote said:

But if PCL cancels the cruise you would get 100% cash back to the means that it was paid by?

 

Yes, Princess pays you back in cash for the entire cost of your cruise if THEY cancel, including the cost of the insurance if you purchased it through Princess.  

 

[npcl]

2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Perhaps, but you must read the specific language in your policy.  But if you paid for a cruise, in the USA, with a major credit card you would be able to put any of the cruise charges "in dispute" and get a credit card refund.  We have previously had to do this with two cruise line bankruptcies. 

 

I think a bigger issue with bankruptcy would be with outstanding Future Cruise Credits which would likely be completely lost.  That is one reason we would accept a refund over a more generous FCC.  Another issue with FCCs is that they are time-limited and the cruise lines could increase the cost of all their cruises during that time period.....which would effectively devalue the FCCs.

 

Hank

Depends upon the type of bankruptcy. Similarly with the airlines, if the cruise lines were to declare BK, the LAST group they would want to impact would be their passengers.  If they were to impact the deposits, pending refunds and FCCs then there is now reason to reorganize because their customer base would be gone.

 

If they were to declare BK, a fair possibility if they are unable to start cruising again by the end of Q3, I would expect them to wipe out shareholders, but leave passengers intact.  They would then still have somewhat of a customer base to return to with a smaller cruise line. Touch their existing customer base and that company would be toast.

[deadzone1003]

31 minutes ago, npcl said:

Depends upon the type of bankruptcy. Similarly with the airlines, if the cruise lines were to declare BK, the LAST group they would want to impact would be their passengers.  If they were to impact the deposits, pending refunds and FCCs then there is now reason to reorganize because their customer base would be gone.

 

If they were to declare BK, a fair possibility if they are unable to start cruising again by the end of Q3, I would expect them to wipe out shareholders, but leave passengers intact.  They would then still have somewhat of a customer base to return to with a smaller cruise line. Touch their existing customer base and that company would be toast.

The cruise lines, I believe, are a highly leveraged industry.  They may own their oldest ships outright.   But, in a bankruptcy court, they may offer a plan to protect the passengers, but the judge is likely to spread out the pain.  How much you would lost would be up in the air.  The shareholders will lose everything.  Creditors will be big losers.  Everyone will lose to some degree.  The cruise industry cannot start coming back until there is a vaccine as destinations will probably require a vaccine to visit their country or even to enter a port.    It normally takes 12-18 months because most vaccines use the technique of inserting a small amount of the disease into your system in order to grow antibodies - a tad tricky.  We might be able to get it in around 6 months if Trump can accelerate the process, especially if they are just adapting a current vaccine in use.  The only saving grace for the cruise lines are their ships are probably their only major assets.  They will have no other value other than as cruise ships except as scrap metal and the scrap metal market will probably be depressed.  For example, who would be buying the Royal Princess except another cruise line or someone who wants to get into industry and who would want to get into a depressed industry with so many unknowns.  What can you use the Royal Princess for except as some kind of people hauler.  I see the industry going bankrupt, but they might be too big to fail because of the lack of alternatives.  I suspect the creditors to be the new additional shareholders where as current shareholders you may have to give up 50-90% of your equity, but you will still get your OBC as a shareholder when you book a cruise on one of their cruiselines.

[neverbeenhere]

The person you mention is not a doctor or scientist working on a treatment or vaccine.  Trials take time. Cranking out some half tested slop will not be effective. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by neverbeenhere

[iamtrustworthy]

3 hours ago, AF-1 said:

Does travel insurance cover the cost of cruise line bankrupcy?

Hi AF-1,

 

The plans I know best still do cover 3rd Party Supplier Financial Default. What most people don’t know or understand is that the Financial Default coverage is for the 3rd party. If you book a cruise directly with the cruise line, you are not covered for Supplier Financial Default because there is no intermediary to be the 2nd party. If you booked with a travel agent who, in turn, made your cruise’s travel arrangements, the travel agent is the 2nd party and the cruise line is the 3rd party.

 

“Supplier Financial Default” is a complete suspension of operations due to financial circumstances whether or not a bankruptcy petition is filed. In other words, just the act of filing for bankruptcy or becoming bankrupt doesn’t necessarily qualify as a valid Financial Default claim. The 3rd Party (not who you booked directly with) travel supplier has to completely cease operations.

 

Important: Supplier Financial Default does not cover where you arrange / book your travel. For example, if you use a travel agency and it goes out of business. Ideally, the travel agency uses an escrow account to store its clients’ funds while the money’s in their possession. You are not covered for Financial Default for money the travel agency hadn’t paid to the travel suppliers.

 

I hope this makes sense,

 

Steve Dasseos

[bluesea321]

2 hours ago, npcl said:

If they were to declare BK, a fair possibility if they are unable to start cruising again by the end of Q3, I would expect them to wipe out shareholders, but leave passengers intact.  They would then still have somewhat of a customer base to return to with a smaller cruise line. Touch their existing customer base and that company would be toast.

 

The problem I see with that is that the customer base you refer to above will be using mostly FCC which do not add to cash flow.

[Daniel A]

1 hour ago, neverbeenhere said:

The person you mention is not a doctor or scientist working on a treatment or vaccine.  Trials take time. Cranking out some half tested slop will not be effective. 

researchers such as Polish-born virologist Albert Sabin, who was developing an oral “live-virus” polio vaccine, called Salk’s approach dangerous. Sabin even belittled Salk as “a mere kitchen chemist.”

 

Salk injected himself, his wife and his three sons in his kitchen after boiling the needles and syringes on his stovetop. Salk announced the success of the initial human tests to a national radio audience on March 26, 1953.