Form 8-K Filed With The SEC - 1/11/21

[Syracusefan44]

For anyone interested in the financial status of Carnival Corporation here is the latest Form 8-K.

 

One item of note: “Carnival Corporation & plc Chief Financial Officer David Bernstein noted, "We ended the year with $9.5 billion in cash and have the liquidity in place to sustain ourselves throughout 2021, even in a zero-revenue environment.”

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/node/63021/html

[cruzsnooze]

Thanks for posting this encouraging information

[caribill]

And the press release about earnings, future bookings, ships leaving fleet, etc.

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-plc-provides-preliminary-financial

[John99]

I read the news release from Carnival Corp. dated Jan. 11^th 2021.

 

I agree with cruzesnooze – the news looks encouraging.

They will have enough cash ($9.5 billion) to cover their cash burn of $600 mil. per month to sustain itself through 2021.

Optimizing the Future Fleet – with the disposal of 19 less efficient ships, 15 of which have already left the fleet.

Advance booking or the first half of 2022 are ahead of 2019 which is encouraging.

 

What stood out to me:  It had $2.2 billion in customer deposits as of Nov. 30, most of which are future cruise credits (FCC) the company offered in lieu of cash refunds.

 

[Syracusefan]

1 hour ago, John99 said:

I read the news release from Carnival Corp. dated Jan. 11^th 2021.

 

I agree with cruzesnooze – the news looks encouraging.

They will have enough cash ($9.5 billion) to cover their cash burn of $600 mil. per month to sustain itself through 2021.

Optimizing the Future Fleet – with the disposal of 19 less efficient ships, 15 of which have already left the fleet.

Advance booking or the first half of 2022 are ahead of 2019 which is encouraging.

 

What stood out to me:  It had $2.2 billion in customer deposits as of Nov. 30, most of which are future cruise credits (FCC) the company offered in lieu of cash refunds.

 

Hope that Carnival Corp does not sell Pacific Princess.
 

I am concerned since it is the oldest ship

in the Princess fleet it’s definitely less efficient along with not having Medallion Class technology.

[LACruiser88]

29 minutes ago, Syracusefan said:

Hope that Carnival Corp does not sell Pacific Princess.
 

I am concerned since it is the oldest ship

in the Princess fleet it’s definitely less efficient along with not having Medallion Class technology.

I'm sure it will be sold as fast as they can find a buyer.  Its been on the market for quite some time now...

[Crystabel]

1 hour ago, LACruiser88 said:

I'm sure it will be sold as fast as they can find a buyer.  Its been on the market for quite some time now...

True, and so sad. 

[charlie murphy]

4 hours ago, John99 said:

Advance booking or the first half of 2022 are ahead of 2019 which is encouraging.

I am sure if posting on this page is a mistake as I am sure there is a wealth of financial savvy here and  research that I would have no clue even existed. However, here is my question : Are the bookings the use of FFC and inidivduals using that $$ + or new $$. I am not sure if it matters if it is new $$ or old. But it may be reflective of the increase in andvanced bookings, lots of people playing with house money , not willing to chance 2021 and shooting for 2022.  thoughts?

[John99]

 

1 hour ago, charlie murphy said:

 

Charlie Murphy good question about bookings.

 

Total customer deposits balance at November 30, 2020, was $2.2 billion, the majority of which are FCCs, compared to the total customer deposits balance of $2.4 billion at August 31, 2020.   That’s a decrease of $200 million from quarter to quarter.  Carnival stated that the decline in customer deposits is less than previous expectations.

 

Approximately 60 percent of bookings taken during the last quarter (Sept. Oct. Nov.) ended November 30, 2020 were new bookings as opposed to FCCs re-bookings, despite minimal advertising or marketing.

 

[DrivesLikeMario]

I find it encouraging.  Thanks for the update.

[snoozecrooze]

Jotted down the few notes I made from the interview Arnold Donald just had with CNBC (some of these points have already been repeated above or online):

• Q4 adjusted net loss is $1.9B
• Hopeful ships can sail by year-end (did not answer if he thinks all ships could possibly resume any earlier than that)
• RE: requiring vaccines for passengers (check NCL and RCG CEOs for their takes)
  • currently aims to follow regional government compliance (i.e. that of their destinations and home ports) and is not yet taking a side on if vaccine compliance will be enforced on passengers
• Does not believe there is a demand problem given the lengthy pause and that people have not lost their cruise itch (uses bookings as proof)
• Cutting 19 ships total, which altogether represented only 13% of their total capacity 
• Asked on whether 2nd stimulus should've given cruise lines some aid as well, he says focus should continue to remain on the jobs affected by cruise impact (e.g. port workers, taxi drivers, travel agents, etc.)
• Liquidity run rate goes through the end of 2021 (as many know) and that he's raised $19B
  • he claims that Carnival Corp. has the capacity to raise more if need be but hopes he doesn't have to

Simple rundown of everything:

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24179-carnival-corp-reports-q4-2020-results-loss-of-2-2-billion.html

 

Some thoughts from the article above:

--> re: cutting ships

I strongly think Pacific is a victim. It hasn't been in Medallion news or any future obvious deployment news. Others have said that longer cruises actually yield less gains from onboard revenue, so I do think this is a contributing factor.

 

-->re: ship delivery delays

I strongly think Discovery will be delayed for some time, as suggested by the article. I think the company could possibly cut the November Europe season and December Caribbean season and just launch straight into the South America voyage, if they can get the ship done by then.

[Daniel A]

It may be good news for PAX, but the stock is still in decline.

[OccasionalSanta]

10 hours ago, Daniel A said:

It may be good news for PAX, but the stock is still in decline.

 

Since hitting bottom at $7.80 in April, the stock has rebounded somewhat and has been hovering around $20 for the last few months. While this is still well below where it was prior to covid, it has been fairly stable of late.

[Daniel A]

9 hours ago, OccasionalSanta said:

 

Since hitting bottom at $7.80 in April, the stock has rebounded somewhat and has been hovering around $20 for the last few months. While this is still well below where it was prior to covid, it has been fairly stable of late.

Understood, but I'm wondering if the filing which is the current topic of this thread is good news, then why is the stock still going down?  It's currently below $20 and still decreasing.  Norwegian stock isn't doing this.

[caribill]

21 hours ago, snoozecrooze said:

Jotted down the few notes I made from the interview Arnold Donald just had with CNBC (some of these points have already been repeated above or online):

• Q4 adjusted net loss is $1.9B
• Hopeful ships can sail by year-end (did not answer if he thinks all ships could possibly resume any earlier than that)
• RE: requiring vaccines for passengers (check NCL and RCG CEOs for their takes)
  • currently aims to follow regional government compliance (i.e. that of their destinations and home ports) and is not yet taking a side on if vaccine compliance will be enforced on passengers
• Does not believe there is a demand problem given the lengthy pause and that people have not lost their cruise itch (uses bookings as proof)
• Cutting 19 ships total, which altogether represented only 13% of their total capacity 
• Asked on whether 2nd stimulus should've given cruise lines some aid as well, he says focus should continue to remain on the jobs affected by cruise impact (e.g. port workers, taxi drivers, travel agents, etc.)
• Liquidity run rate goes through the end of 2021 (as many know) and that he's raised $19B
  • he claims that Carnival Corp. has the capacity to raise more if need be but hopes he doesn't have to

Simple rundown of everything:

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24179-carnival-corp-reports-q4-2020-results-loss-of-2-2-billion.html

 

Some thoughts from the article above:

--> re: cutting ships

I strongly think Pacific is a victim. It hasn't been in Medallion news or any future obvious deployment news. Others have said that longer cruises actually yield less gains from onboard revenue, so I do think this is a contributing factor.

 

-->re: ship delivery delays

I strongly think Discovery will be delayed for some time, as suggested by the article. I think the company could possibly cut the November Europe season and December Caribbean season and just launch straight into the South America voyage, if they can get the ship done by then.

 

Some additional information from the conference call:

 

As a result of fleet reduction, we are less reliant on new-to-cruise, thanks to our recurring base of repeat guests and that represents a source of nearly 8 million guests each year, which will now be spread over a smaller fleet.

 

The forward booking trends we have consistently experienced throughout this period in spite of the extended pause in our operations in spite of our minimal advertising effort and even in spite of the abundance of negative global news, affirm the underlying demand that will facilitate our staggered resumption and support the long-term growth of our company. And we have not only seen tremendous support for our brands from our loyal guests, it is also very encouraging to see demand from new guests. Upon resuming service, we believe we are well positioned to optimize that pent-up demand by leading brands around the world.

 

We intend to initially resume operations with a small percentage of the fleet. So for our initial voyages, we've chosen to sail with low occupancy levels, enabling us to gain valuable experience with our enhanced safety protocols.

 

The development of low-cost testing, the continued advent of therapies and the pace of the distribution of vaccines will certainly influence the pace of our recovery.

 

We have the lowest leverage in our industry, and we retained the capacity to issue additional debt.

 

At this point in time, our cumulative advanced bookings for the second half of 2021 are within the historical range. Even better, our cumulative advanced bookings for the first half of 2022 are ahead of a very strong 2019, which was at the high end of the historical range.

 

It is particularly reassuring to see that approximately 60% of bookings taken during the fourth quarter 2020 for fiscal year 2021 were new bookings, with the remainder being FCC rebooking. Approximately 45% of the 2021 book position are guests that are new to brand, with the remaining 55% of guests being brand loyalists

 

We're on track to be able to do whatever we need to do with the CDC in a very timely manner to be able to resume cruises. We've started to bring ships back into the U.S.  Bringing those ships back are meeting the criteria that is currently put out there to be in a position to then subsequently do test cruises, but to give you a specific timing on the test cruises, we would need additional guidance from CDC. We're still waiting for a lot of the technical guidance that was not included in their original conditional sail order.

 

(By the way, for those of you who think the shares bought by customers for the stockholder OBC has a significant effect on the stock price or influence on corporate management, consider that the outstanding share count at the end of 2020 was 1.087 billion shares.)

 

There's no big dramatic differences across the brands in terms of booking patterns or trends.

 

If you look at the CDC website, you'll see that we brought 30 ships back into U.S. waters, one more is expected to come back. And those are the ships that we expect to sail in U.S. waters through the balance of the conditional sail order that the CDC issued this year and the remainder of the ships would sail outside U.S. waters.

 

We could introduce some customized itineraries as something to reintroduce if it made sense.

 

We haven't seen any significant change in the overall demographics of the people booking cruises. We're seeing people in their 20s and 30s as well as people in their 50s, 60s, 70s and 80s.

 

There are no cancellation clauses in our new building contracts. We started 2020 with 14 on order. We took delivery of 2. So, we have 12 more in the ensuing years.

 

 

[OccasionalSanta]

On 1/12/2021 at 9:32 AM, Daniel A said:

Understood, but I'm wondering if the filing which is the current topic of this thread is good news, then why is the stock still going down?  It's currently below $20 and still decreasing.  Norwegian stock isn't doing this.

I think you're really asking why the stock is not  going up. It's not really declining at this point. It has closed at or above $20 pretty much since Thanksgiving and hovering right near $20 for for all of January .