COVID Situation rapidly improving in the USA

[jfunk138]

4 hours ago, JRG said:

 

I recently read or heard a noted virologist state that Covid-19 was acting like it had intelligence.

He didn't say that it had intelligence,  he said it was acting intelligent by remaining difficult to contain.

 

We need Tom Brady-like armchair quarterbacks who specialize in biological anthropology to assess what might be happening here with the variants.

 

I'm not one of those QB's but it fees like Darwin's theory of evolution is at play here,  with respect to natural selection and survival of the fittest.   That is a tough pill for all of us to swallow and we too have lost one closely related family member to Covid.  But as a scientist,  I can't ignore the obvious and I would be interested to hear from somebody who has a background in anthropology,   specifically biological anthropology.   

 

It seems like all areas of science,  whether it be the physical,  social,  biological or economical (and others) has its area of unknown acceptability (i.e. black holes in physics).   Could it be that a virus can indeed achieve 'critical mass' and have some sort of survival instinct or intelligence to proliferate,   maybe perhaps the way a colony of ants or insects behaves?     

 

I was watching Mork n Mindy on TV one night back in college when I mentioned to a fellow graduate student that a new theory on the extinction of the Dinosaurs was discovered due to a meteorite hitting the earth.   (aka the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction)  She immediately got up and ran into another other room......she had been working on her Geology thesis and the meteorite theory invalidated her thesis.   True story

I don't think there is any doubt evolutionary pressure is playing a role in how the virus behaves.  The normal course of a virus's evolution is to become more infectious but less severe.  Killing or immobilizing the host prevents onward spread.

From an evolutionary perspective, the most fit virus is the virus that is so mild that it can spread without causing any symptoms whatsoever.

It could be argued that by locking down and masking those without any symptoms, we are putting evolutionary pressure on the virus to evolve in other directions, which effectively gives the appearance of "intelligence". 

[Hlitner]

8 hours ago, jfunk138 said:

I don't think there is any doubt evolutionary pressure is playing a role in how the virus behaves.  The normal course of a virus's evolution is to become more infectious but less severe.  Killing or immobilizing the host prevents onward spread.

From an evolutionary perspective, the most fit virus is the virus that is so mild that it can spread without causing any symptoms whatsoever.

It could be argued that by locking down and masking those without any symptoms, we are putting evolutionary pressure on the virus to evolve in other directions, which effectively gives the appearance of "intelligence". 

I suspect most folks are content to watch the daily news and live their life.  But for those who are curious and have an interest in COVID, it might be helpful to read a little about viruses.  So much of what I have read is difficult to decipher (for a mere non-scientist) but here is an easy to read article that might help familiarize some folks with the mysteries of viruses:

Virus Intelligence: Are Viruses Alive & Sentient? | Jon Lieff M.D.

 

When I read this kind of stuff I cannot help but be in awe of the brilliant scientists at places like Moderna that have spent much of their adult lives thinking about viruses and developing the relatively new mRNA concept.  IMHO these scientists are the true heros of our time and are likely responsible in saving 10s of millions of lives.

 

Hank

 

[broberts]

13 hours ago, JRG said:

 

I recently read or heard a noted virologist state that Covid-19 was acting like it had intelligence.

He didn't say that it had intelligence,  he said it was acting intelligent by remaining difficult to contain.

 

It occurs to me that what appears to be intelligence on the part of the virus is lack thereof in its targets.

[clo]

10 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I suspect most folks are content to watch the daily news and live their life.  But for those who are curious and have an interest in COVID, it might be helpful to read a little about viruses.  So much of what I have read is difficult to decipher (for a mere non-scientist) but here is an easy to read article that might help familiarize some folks with the mysteries of viruses:

Virus Intelligence: Are Viruses Alive & Sentient? | Jon Lieff M.D.

 

When I read this kind of stuff I cannot help but be in awe of the brilliant scientists at places like Moderna that have spent much of their adult lives thinking about viruses and developing the relatively new mRNA concept.  IMHO these scientists are the true heros of our time and are likely responsible in saving 10s of millions of lives.

 

Hank

 

He's a neuropsychiatrist. Enough said.

[ontheweb]

7 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I suspect most folks are content to watch the daily news and live their life.  But for those who are curious and have an interest in COVID, it might be helpful to read a little about viruses.  So much of what I have read is difficult to decipher (for a mere non-scientist) but here is an easy to read article that might help familiarize some folks with the mysteries of viruses:

Virus Intelligence: Are Viruses Alive & Sentient? | Jon Lieff M.D.

 

When I read this kind of stuff I cannot help but be in awe of the brilliant scientists at places like Moderna that have spent much of their adult lives thinking about viruses and developing the relatively new mRNA concept.  IMHO these scientists are the true heros of our time and are likely responsible in saving 10s of millions of lives.

 

Hank

 

Correct me if I am wrong, but weren't you the one at the beginning of the development of the present vaccines who said that Moderna had never developed a vaccine and that every announcement of progress only boosted the stock price and the net worth of those in charge of the company?

[ontheweb]

7 hours ago, broberts said:

 

It occurs to me that what appears to be intelligence on the part of the virus is lack thereof in its targets.

I would modify your statement to say to lack thereof in SOME of its targets. There does exist some who are using intelligence and/or common sense in the battle against the virus.

[Hlitner]

2 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but weren't you the one at the beginning of the development of the present vaccines who said that Moderna had never developed a vaccine and that every announcement of progress only boosted the stock price and the net worth of those in charge of the company?

Yep and I was also one who doubted the ability of anyone to develop a vaccine in less than 3 years.  This is one time when I am very happy to have been proven wrong.  It is also interesting to go back on the Internet and read all the negative comments when President Trump said there would be a vaccine before the end of 2021.  Not many believed him.

Hank

[JRG]

10 hours ago, broberts said:

It occurs to me that what appears to be intelligence on the part of the virus is lack thereof in its targets.

 

Thanks for the compliment,  I have 11 years of experience in Healthcare.

 

You've made your case in point too.

[JRG]

11 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Yep and I was also one who doubted the ability of anyone to develop a vaccine in less than 3 years. 

 

You are not alone.   I can't remember anybody predicting that one would be available within a year either.

 

I don't think anybody knew how fast the FDA was going to act in granting approvals.   One of the companies I worked for was a Medical Device Mfg. and the FDA was not known for expediency.

 

 

 

 

[Hlitner]

2 minutes ago, JRG said:

 

You are not alone.   I can't remember anybody predicting that one would be available within a year either.

 

I don't think anybody knew how fast the FDA was going to act in granting approvals.   One of the companies I worked for was a Medical Device Mfg. and the FDA was not known for expediency.

 

 

 

 

When I worked in the Government health industry I was involved in operating some programs for HIV/Aids.  Back in the 80s we started to see the development of quite a few experimental drugs intended for the treatment of HIV/Aids and related morbidities.  But the FDA would consistently hold up any approvals because of their tradition of not approving drugs until they had gone through rigorous testing and evaluation in terms of safety and efficacy.   The gay community in the USA kept lobbying the FDA to change their procedures and argued that in the case of HIV/Aids,  since we are dying anyway folks with that kind of disease should have the right to experimental drugs.  The argument was that folks should be allowed to give their informed consent to use drugs that had not completed all the normal testing and peer review procedures.  The FDA finally relented and started granting more EUAs because it was deemed in the public good.  The approved COVID vaccines have only been approved under similar EUA procedures and still do not have full regulatory approval (Pfizer is planning so seek full approval later this year).  

 

You could find a few of my old posts (last summer) when I mentioned that the FDA had never, ever, approved any vaccine for widespread use under an EUA.  The one small exception was an EUA granted for an Anthrax vaccine which was only applicable to members of the US Military.  So these COVID vaccines are unique in getting EUAs which apparently resulted (at least partially) by pressure applied to the FDA from the Trump administration to speed up their review procedures (hence "Operation Warp Speed.)

 

Hank

[Roz]

I recall very well the posts from last year saying no vaccine had ever been developed in under 5 years. Kudos to our pharmaceutical and medical research communities for their tireless work.  I received my 2nd Pfizer shot yesterday.

[Ride-The-Waves]

No time to get complacent.  Europe is in the process of new lockdowns and quarantines.  The antics in Miami by "Spring Breakers" shows both how stupid and unconcerned for others people can be and how to "enjoy" another mass infection event.

 

It ain't over until its over...  In the meantime use PPE and proper protocols.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, Roz said:

I recall very well the posts from last year saying no vaccine had ever been developed in under 5 years. Kudos to our pharmaceutical and medical research communities for their tireless work.  I received my 2nd Pfizer shot yesterday.

Agree, though I hope "our" refers to the research communities not just in the USA.

 

And we received our 2nd Moderna shots earlier this month.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

Yep and I was also one who doubted the ability of anyone to develop a vaccine in less than 3 years.  This is one time when I am very happy to have been proven wrong.  It is also interesting to go back on the Internet and read all the negative comments when President Trump said there would be a vaccine before the end of 2021.  Not many believed him.

Hank

And we were all glad that you missed on that prediction.😊

 

As for not believing then President Trump, my governor (as well as the governor of California) went as far as saying they would have their own boards vet any vaccine before accepting the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines. I know my governor backed down immediately when he was told fine, we just won't send any of the vaccine to NY state. I assume something quite similar happened with the governor of California.

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

No time to get complacent.  Europe is in the process of new lockdowns and quarantines.  The antics in Miami by "Spring Breakers" shows both how stupid and unconcerned for others people can be and how to "enjoy" another mass infection event.

 

It ain't over until its over...  In the meantime use PPE and proper protocols.

I agree that complacently is not a good idea.  On the other hand, reality is another story.  While these antics continue (like the Spring Break fiasco in Miami Beach) every day in the USA we have more then 2.5 million daily jabs with 10s of thousands of others getting natural immunity (due to having recovered from COVID).  So day by day the number of folks susceptible to catching COVID is reduced and the number of high risk folks susceptible even further reduced.  This is reflected in falling hospitalizations, falling death rates, and falling utilization of ICUs (for COVID).  

 

At some point we need to reverse the closing process and get our country back into gear.  There are some that will not be happy about reopening until the COVID risk is zero (this will never happen).  Others will continue to debate "when we should do what" and it is hard to put a right or wrong to the debate.  But there are some things we do know!  Those that have been fully vaccinated have minimal risk from COVID.  Those that have natural immunity have minimal risk from COVID.  In the USA, by the end of May nearly all adults who want to be vaccinated will have had the vaccines.    

 

What is happening in Europe with the slow vaccine rollout (the UK being an exception) is sad, but not a big issue for us here in the USA.  Despite some early hiccups our country seems to be doing a pretty good job with vaccines and the vaccines do work and work well.  

 

I find it very interesting that just yesterday, the CLIA has called for the CDC to rescind their cruise "framework" or Guidelines that were issued in November.  At the time I posted that the CDC Framework was carefully written to prevent cruising (the requirements are so onerous as to be unworkable).  I think the CLIA has it right in asking for the entire document to be rescinded and for the CDC to agree to resumption of cruising with appropriate COVID mitigation measures.  It sounds like the cruise industry will need to work with reduced capacity, vaccination mandates, and COVID testing as a condition of cruising in the next few months or longer.  RCI/Celebrity seems to be trying to show the way with their Nassau and St Maarten cruises scheduled to being in June.  The standards that are being used in Nassau and St Maarten could easily be extended to cruises embarking from US ports.  It is time for the CDC to get out of the way of the cruise lines and work with the industry...not against the industry.

 

Hank

[broberts]

7 hours ago, ontheweb said:

I would modify your statement to say to lack thereof in SOME of its targets. There does exist some who are using intelligence and/or common sense in the battle against the virus.

 

You are right. I should have used "some targets".

[JRG]

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

RCI/Celebrity seems to be trying to show the way with their Nassau and St Maarten cruises scheduled to being in June.  The standards that are being used in Nassau and St Maarten could easily be extended to cruises embarking from US ports.

 

My guess here is that RCG is positioning itself to be ready on stand-by with these sailings from Nassau and St. Maarten.

 

They can continue to collect new cash or redeem FCC by throwing these on the schedule and actually sail if things go right,  but if the US departure ports open up they will be ready with ships and crew to move back to FLL.  

 

These may be the 'Canary in the Coal Mine sailings too so they have to be watched by all.

 

 

[HxFx]

4 hours ago, Hlitner said:

since we are dying anyway folks with that kind of disease should have the right to experimental drugs.

I am a big fan of the "Right to Try" law that was passed in 2017. I was surprised it didn't get more attention.

[Hlitner]

27 minutes ago, HxFx said:

I am a big fan of the "Right to Try" law that was passed in 2017. I was surprised it didn't get more attention.

You are I agree on the issue but within the healthcare community there was some resistance and folks wrestling with moral dilemmas.   I think some of it goes to the physicians basic creed "to do no harm."  COVID vaccines are a whole different situation because the mortality rate is a fraction of 1% so "Right to Try" is really not an issue.  While I personally am very supportive of the fast granting of EUAs for the vaccines (based on Phase 3 Trial results) it is also easy to understand some of the reluctance folks have about the vaccines.  But these folks really should look at not just the low death rate of COVID, but at the awful morbidity situation.  Just today there was an article (Tinnitus, hearing loss may be linked to COVID-19: study (nypost.com)

about Tinnitus which says that nearly 15% of those who had COVID have this and other hearing-related symptoms which can be long lasting or even worse.  A recent suicide apparently because of ongoing tinnitus problems has made this issue move to the forefront.  And that is only one Covid-related morbidity out of hundreds!     This COVID thing is a very nasty bug and those that think taking their chances with COVID is a better option then a vaccine might want to reexamine their thinking.

 

Hank

[SelectSys]

16 hours ago, Hlitner said:

developing the relatively new mRNA concept.  IMHO these scientists are the true heros of our time and are likely responsible in saving 10s of millions of lives.

The "mother" of mRNA therapeutics for those that are interested:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/redemption-one-scientists-unwavering-belief-mrna-gave-world/

For more than four decades, Prof Karikó has relentlessly explored how the single-stranded molecules of genetic code could be used to treat conditions from strokes and cancer to influenza. Despite demotions, countless grant rejections and, at points, deep scepticism from fellow scientists, she ploughed on. 

 

Prof Karikó first began work on mRNA at a lab in Hungary in 1978, before moving to the US after her position at the Biological Research Centre in Szeged was terminated in 1985. A decade later, when at the University of Pennsylvania, Prof Karikó was again demoted when her focus on mRNA failed to attract financial backing.

 

“This is a vindication of the mRNA approach, it's the first positive phase three result for any RNA product, ever,” said Dr Richard Hatchett, chief executive of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi). 

 

“It opens up a whole new class of therapies and vaccines… as the world grapples with how to reduce the risk of future epidemics or pandemics, these are going to be critical, critical, tools,” he said. 

Others have added that Prof Karikó, along with her colleague Prof Weissman, deserve a Nobel Prize in chemistry for their all important breakthrough in the mid-2000s. 

 

I believe she is now at BioNTech:

https://de.linkedin.com/in/katalin-karikó-a6b457a

[SelectSys]

4 hours ago, ontheweb said:

with the governor of California.

Newsom just added another group to the vaccine access list - overweight people are now eligible.  I really need a cruise now to up my BMI to finally become eligible!  Below 65 and age doesn't matter.

 

What criteria does NY use to determine eligibility?

[ontheweb]

15 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

Newsom just added another group to the vaccine access list - overweight people are now eligible.  I really need a cruise now to up my BMI to finally become eligible!  Below 65 and age doesn't matter.

 

What criteria does NY use to determine eligibility?

I believe they first started with medical front line workers. Our son actually as a drug and alcohol counselor qualified early. Then they went to 65 and above. I think some jobs such as teachers were added at the same time. Since we got our vaccines as over 65s, I have not been really following it since then, though the age has now been lowered, but I am not sure to what specific age group.

 

The governor's main person in charge of getting the vaccine distributed recently called on County Executives to ask how they felt about the governor. Of course they deny this has anything to do with vaccine distribution.

[TheOldBear]

17 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

Newsom just added another group to the vaccine access list - overweight people are now eligible.  I really need a cruise now to up my BMI to finally become eligible!  Below 65 and age doesn't matter.

 

What criteria does NY use to determine eligibility?

Right now, it is

• Anyone over 50
• Under 50 with one of several designated co-morbidities [diabetes, cancer, transplant recipient ....]
• Public facing employees [with a bias toward 'public service' and 'non profit']

Earlier groups included anyone in health care, teachers, nursing home residents and staff. NY will likely be one of the last places to open eligibility to 'anyone over 16' 

[Ride-The-Waves]

1 hour ago, TheOldBear said:

Right now, it is

• Anyone over 50
• Under 50 with one of several designated co-morbidities [diabetes, cancer, transplant recipient ....]
• Public facing employees [with a bias toward 'public service' and 'non profit']

Earlier groups included anyone in health care, teachers, nursing home residents and staff. NY will likely be one of the last places to open eligibility to 'anyone over 16' 

The conundrum is that criteria should never have been left upon mot individual states, territories and districts.  We are all Americans.  Period.  Here in Florida is was a total mess.  Governor DuhSantis left it uo to countries to determine the process.  Our county was to be managed via internet website signup.  Of course, not everyone has access but in Florida that is a non issue (Tallahassee doesn't care).  So we drove two countries over and were vaccinated (2nd shot on 27 January).  But again, a car was required and not everyone has access.  Good to see now a few places have recognized this limitation and are readying procedures to take the prophylaxis to real and less well off Americans.  Hopefully no more incidents where a state governor (DuhSantis again) can play politics with vaccine distribution as he did near Sarasota, rerouting vaccines to a wealthy district of his supporters.  

[SelectSys]

 

 

2 hours ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

 Governor DuhSantis left it uo to countries to determine the process.

This is also true in California.  All counties are largely doing their own thing.  Some have opted out of the centralized distribution system completely.