News from this morning... thoughts?

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

4 hours ago, BirdTravels said:

The news is a bit skewed. While it may be hundreds of salaried workers, it's 10's of thousands of crew members that are out of work. 

In fact, thousands are still trying to get home ... and yet there are folks on CC believing they'll be in summertime cruises. 🤪

Back in March, CC had posts warning that the industry was in horrifically deep bad stuff. The usual chorus shot back "oh, don't be so negative ... gloom & doom ... stop saying the sky is falling."
 

Turns out, the sky WAS falling.

 

Maverick61's post (a few before this) is well worth reading. RCI has just taken on a crushing amount of debt ... as NCL did previously.
 

Sure, they'll say they had to do it to stay solvent. But that's ultimately just punting the can down the highway: All those bills will come due. And when they do, the cruise lines will be vastly smaller - and with vastly less revenue.

 

So far, I've seen nothing from Fain, Arnold, Arison or Del Rio to suggest they have a clue. And CLIA is its usual useless self.

 

[PhoenixCruiser]

Well the US doesn't really have any trustworthy guidance right now.

 

"Open the US" is what we are hearing. So far that only seems to means open the hair and nail salons, bars and restaurants, people want to be pampered and served and fed.

 

Some of those working in the salons and restaurants don't feel safe enough to go back to work.

 

Huge disconnect!

 

 

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

[SNJCruisers]

On 5/13/2020 at 12:30 PM, zonacruiser25 said:

I do not know how to dig down to the real funding source but I am hearing how China is providing loans and just sitting and waiting to seize the assets down the road if there is a default.  Not trying to be a conspiracy type just curious if anyone is able to drill down that far.

Well...ya know the old saying about drilling a hole straight down and coming out in China.

[A&L_Ont]

9 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

Back in March, CC had posts warning that the industry was in horrifically deep bad stuff. The usual chorus shot back "oh, don't be so negative ... gloom & doom ... stop saying the sky is falling."
 

Turns out, the sky WAS falling.

There was a individual here on CC, that told me in mid-March, by June the whole virus would be in the review mirror.  Followed by those concerned would look silly.
 

I haven’t seen him on the boards as of late.  It is almost June and we aren’t out of the woods yet.  I’d be curious of his thoughts now. 

Edited May 16, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[A&L_Ont]

3 hours ago, SNJCruisers said:

Well...ya know the old saying about drilling a hole straight down and coming out in China.

That hole might be closer than you think.  They also might come up with the vaccine, with some help from other’s hard work. 😉

 

“Intelligence agencies warned of China-backed hacking of institutions and companies researching vaccines, treatments and tests for the novel coronavirus”, a direct quote from the CBC story linked below.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cse-csis-china-covid-1.5570134

 

 

Edited May 16, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[Iamcruzin]

25 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

There was a individual here on CC, that told me in mid-March, by June the whole virus would be in the review mirror.  Followed by those concerned would look silly.
 

I haven’t seen him on the boards as of late.  It is almost June and we aren’t out of the woods yet.  I’d be curious of his thoughts now. 

I would be curious of the thoughts of those who moved their early spring bookings to July claiming that the warmer weather will kill the virus and it will all magically end. The people in Florida who jump on a cruise like most of us jump in a car don't count because they can just drive to port and most are retired. I would probably be booking and lifting and shifting if I was in that situation.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Iamcruzin

[Newleno]

11 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

I would be curious of the thoughts of those who moved their early spring bookings to July claiming that the warmer weather will kill the virus and it will all magically end. The people in Florida who jump on a cruise like most of us jump in a car don't count because they can just drive to port and most are retired. I would probably be booking and lifting and shifting if I was in that situation.

the hot weather will help,  clear science berafatichcosis facts are what is necessary to combat the current plague.

[ctigerk]

On 5/13/2020 at 12:45 PM, Tree_skier said:

Infect the world, depress the economy, then buy the depressed assets at a discount.  Very shrewd.

If that's the theory, is our government in on it? Seems like they could have done a lot to squash this thing since January but didn't. Is there something in it for this administration? 

[A&L_Ont]

17 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

I would be curious of the thoughts of those who moved their early spring bookings to July claiming that the warmer weather will kill the virus and it will all magically end. The people in Florida who jump on a cruise like most of us jump in a car don't count because they can just drive to port and most are retired. I would probably be booking and lifting and shifting if I was in that situation.

The individual I speak of has Florida listed as their location. 

[ipeeinthepool]

41 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

There was a individual here on CC, that told me in mid-March, by June the whole virus would be in the review mirror.  Followed by those concerned would look silly.
 

I haven’t seen him on the boards as of late.  It is almost June and we aren’t out of the woods yet.  I’d be curious of his thoughts now. 

 

How do things look in Canada?  In the US it seems like about a quarter of the deaths are in nursing homes.  Is this the trend in Canada?

[A&L_Ont]

3 minutes ago, Newleno said:

the hot weather will help,  clear science berafatichcosis facts are what is necessary to combat the current plague.

I will point out that it exists in countries with hot climates, both dry and humid.

[Newleno]

Just now, A&L_Ont said:

I will point out that it exists in countries with hot climates, both dry and humid.

I will point out that hot weather will help, but you already knew that

[A&L_Ont]

1 minute ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

How do things look in Canada?  In the US it seems like about a quarter of the deaths are in nursing homes.  Is this the trend in Canada?

Yes, it hit the elderly and immune compromised in LTC at some facilities more than others.  Quebec more than any other province. 
 

IMO the Federal government spent more time looking at ICU beds and the elderly in LTC were left behind or were an after thought. 

[A&L_Ont]

2 minutes ago, Newleno said:

I will point out that hot weather will help, but you already knew that

I also have read that it won’t. 

[ipeeinthepool]

1 minute ago, A&L_Ont said:

I also have read that it won’t. 

 

The hot weather didn't seem to help in Iran.

[Iamcruzin]

3 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

Yes, it hit the elderly and immune compromised in LTC at some facilities more than others.  Quebec more than any other province. 
 

IMO the Federal government spent more time looking at ICU beds and the elderly in LTC were left behind or were an after thought. 

I have friends who work in Nursing homes in New Jersey and in North Carolina. They say their covid cases came from those who were admitted to a hospital for emergency care and even though they tested negative for covid they were the ones who became sick after they came back and spread it to the nursing homes. Some of these nursing homes aren't fit for a dog. They really needed to setup a quarantine ward for those who are in and out of the hospital.

[Computer Nerd]

4 hours ago, SNJCruisers said:

Well...ya know the old saying about drilling a hole straight down and coming out in China.

 

As we all should know, since China and the US are both in the northern hemisphere, that really wouldn't happen. From my location, digging straight down would get me to somewhere in the Indian Ocean halfway between Madagascar and Australia.

[lr657]

1 hour ago, Iamcruzin said:

I would be curious of the thoughts of those who moved their early spring bookings to July claiming that the warmer weather will kill the virus and it will all magically end. The people in Florida who jump on a cruise like most of us jump in a car don't count because they can just drive to port and most are retired. I would probably be booking and lifting and shifting if I was in that situation.

 

Oh no, please don't generalize all Floridians. Not all Floridians are retired. I moved from Long Island to Florida after I graduated from college for a job offer. We are realistic, look at the facts, and don't anticipate cruising to begin anytime soon. We also fly to over 50% of our cruises. I don't think people who live in Florida are are the only one's booking for the Summer cruises. We've already had our May TA cancelled and don't anticipate our September Hawaii cruise or the TA we have booked in November to sail either. Actually, if we could we would have already used the Lift and Shift option for both of them. 😊

Edited May 16, 2020 by lr657

[Iamcruzin]

Just now, lr657 said:

 

Oh no, please don't generalize all Floridians. Not all Floridians are retired. I moved from Long Island to Florida after I graduated from college for a job offer. We are realistic, look at the facts, and don't anticipate cruising to begin anytime soon. We also fly to over 50% of our cruises. I don't think people who live in Florida are are the only one's booking for the Summer cruises. We've already had our May TA cancelled and don't anticipate our September Hawaii cruise or the TA we have booked in November to sail either. Actually, if we could we would have already used the Lift and Shift option for both of them. 

Never said all people from Florida. However my BIL and SIL who also move to Florida from Long Island jump on a cruise every chance they get even if it's an extended weekend cruise. It's much easier to plan last minute when flights aren't involved also many Floridians on CC are retired in Florida and have multiple cruises booked and just keep switching them out as they get canceled. Easy to do when you don't have to plan for flights and hotel stays. So yes Floridians are in a better situation than those who can't drive to port which is why they are excluded from the equation.

[lr657]

2 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

Never said all people from Florida. However my BIL and SIL who also move to Florida from Long Island jump on a cruise every chance they get even if it's an extended weekend cruise. It's much easier to plan last minute when flights aren't involved also many Floridians on CC are retired in Florida and have multiple cruises booked and just keep switching them out as they get canceled. Easy to do when you don't have to plan for flights and hotel stays. So yes Floridians are in a better situation than those who can't drive to port which is why they are excluded from the equation.

 

I wasn't taking it personally, just wanted to make the point that there are still many Floridians who are not retired, don't just "jump" on cruises because they can drive to the port, and are able to think rationally and not book cruises that obviously can't sail. Those that keep insisting that cruises are going to resume soon don't seem to be looking at all the facts and obstacles for that to happen. More like wishful thinking because they want to cruise.

[Basketball wife]

Re- “Yes, [in Canada] it hit the elderly and immune compromised in LTC at some facilities more than others.  Quebec more than any other province.“

 

There is a lesson to be learned here from Quebec (QC) about opening things up too soon. QC traditionally has their spring/winter break two to three weeks earlier than the other provinces. The province literally clears out for these breaks, usually to the sunny south; for many who want to beat the rush/cheaper airfare, they can start to leave as early as Feb. 18th. So, many of these QC travellers returned home even BEFORE other provinces BEGAN their breaks, living their lives as before—going to work, shopping, visiting Grandma, etc., unknowingly spreading the virus.

About 70% of the deaths in QC are in long term homes, but 90% of all deaths are people over the age of 70 (add another 9% to include those between 60-69). The remaining 20% of deaths is generally among low income populations (making about $46000) who tend to live in densely populated neighbourhoods (apartments) and work in service type businesses (grocery stores/restaurants, etc.). The government is encouraging everyone in these neighbourhoods to be tested.

 

BTW, we left the province on Feb. 20th for Buenos Ares. There were no cases in QC or South America (SA). When we boarded the Celebrity Eclipse on March 1st, still nothing in QC or Canada (first case was reported in BC on the 8th) but two in SA. It didn’t take long—   we ended up with an unexpected month long “normal” cruise on the Eclipse and came home to what seemed like a sci-fi society. We had an April Azamara Cruise cancelled while on the Eclipse and we cancelled a quick getaway summer Oasis cruse — we have been travelling every two to three months but now we will wait for a vaccine or treatment or some kind of containment/prevention procedure before we cruise again.

[Basketball wife]

Oops, sorry... should read about 2%, not 20% of deaths among low income population...

[Newleno]

1 hour ago, Basketball wife said:

 

 

There is a lesson to be learned here from Quebec (QC) about opening things up too soon. 
 

Were the hospitals ever overrun with to many patients to take care of?

[Computer Nerd]

1 hour ago, Basketball wife said:

About 70% of the deaths in QC are in long term homes, but 90% of all deaths are people over the age of 70 (add another 9% to include those between 60-69). The remaining 20% of deaths is generally among low income populations (making about $46000) who tend to live in densely populated neighbourhoods (apartments) and work in service type businesses (grocery stores/restaurants, etc.). The government is encouraging everyone in these neighbourhoods to be tested.

It's interesting that I heard on the radio this morning that the median age of a Corona death in the US is 78, 1 year older than the average age of death without Corona.

[Basketball wife]

5 hours ago, Newleno said:

Were the hospitals ever overrun with to many patients to take care of?

Sort of , but the “overflow” patients were sent to hospitals outside of Montreal. Montreal is an island and has about 50% of all cases with its surrounding area having 25% (so the Montreal area has about 75% of all cases in QC). 
 

A good indicator of how overrun the hospitals are/were is how busy the ERs have been. This chart is from 10 days ago. The list on the side indicates the various regions in QC and the other chart indicates Montreal hospitals. So the ERs in Montreal were at 82% occupancy with the Royal Victoria Hospital the busiest with 136%.